PDB Afternoon Bulletin | June 18th, 2025:Why Iran’s Firepower Is Rapidly Fizzling Out & A Border Milestone
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It's Wednesday, the 18th of June. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, leaders in Tehran are talking tough, but Israel's air defenses and precision strikes, well, they're talking tougher. I'll explain why Iran's firepower is fading quickly.

Later in the show, major news from the border. In a stunning turnaround from just a year ago, Border Patrol didn't release a single migrant into the U.S. last month. We'll have those details. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. A lot of bluster has been coming from Tehran over the past 24 hours. Last night, Iranian state media issued a cryptic message warning of an imminent event that, quote, "...the world will remember for centuries."

Shortly after, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, tweeting from what many believe to be a secure underground bunker, posted, We will show no mercy to the Zionists. His message was accompanied by an apocalyptic illustration, fire raining down on what looked like an ancient city engulfed in chaos.

Well, the evening came and went, and Tehran failed to deliver. What we did get was another pair of missile attacks, and if Iran was hoping for biblical destruction, well, it fell very short of what that might look like. The first barrage triggered sirens across parts of Israel around 12:40 a.m. local time. A second round followed about 40 minutes later, setting off alerts in central Israel. In total, the IDF said roughly 30 missiles were fired.

Almost all of them were intercepted by Israeli air defenses. There were no casualties, no major damage. The only confirmed incident was a fire in a central Israel parking lot that damaged 20 cars, not by a direct missile hit, but by debris from an interception.

Yet, Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed otherwise. In a statement on state TV, the IRGC boldly declared that it had, quote, "...gained complete control over the skies of the occupied territories," end quote. Now, given even the limited access that Iranian civilians have to the internet and social media,

You have to imagine that even they understand that the IRGC's claims are ridiculous, basically a work of fiction. These latest attacks are a far cry from Iran's initial salvos which, while limited, did manage to temporarily overload Israeli defenses and land a few hits. So, what's changed? Why are Iran's missile attacks suddenly not as effective? Two major reasons.

First, Israel's targeted campaign against Iran's missile launch platforms is working. As we discussed earlier this week on the PDB, many of Iran's launchers are mobile, making them harder to detect but also vulnerable once identified. The IDF now estimates that roughly 40% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed since Operation Rising Lion began on Friday. That's a staggering level of attrition in under a week.

In fact, an IDF spokesman confirmed that Iranian forces have been forced to retreat from western Iran altogether, relocating assets to the deeper interior in the province of Isfahan. That shift may buy them more time to launch, but it also pushes their missiles to the outer edge of effective range. It does require the Israeli Air Force to fly longer missions to strike targets, which is exactly what they're doing. The second reason that Iran's barrages are faltering is more systemic.

Their command and control network is apparently breaking down. Just yesterday, the IDF announced the death of Major General Ali Shadmani. He's a high-level military figure with close ties to the Supreme Leader. Shadmani had only just taken over command of Iran's emergency war headquarters four days ago, after the previous commander, General Golem Ali Rashid, was killed in the initial round of Israeli strikes.

That's two top generals dead in less than a week, and in a military as centralized as Iran's, those losses can be devastating. Unlike Western militaries, especially the US and the UK, which empower field commanders to adapt to battlefield conditions, Iran's structure is rigidly top-down. Orders flow from the supreme leader to trusted generals, and that's where initiative tends to stop. Lower-level officers are often afraid to make decisions; mistakes are punished. Fealty and caution are rewarded.

So, when top commanders are eliminated, well, the whole chain of command risks grinding to a halt. Confusion, delay, hesitation, that's what the IDF is exploiting, and so far, it's working.

Now, while Tehran continues issuing fiery statements, Israel is signaling that it's just getting started. Speaking to U.S. media, the Israeli ambassador warned that the IDF still has tricks up its sleeve. He said, quote, We've pulled off a number of surprises. When the dust settles, you're going to see some surprises on Thursday night and Friday that will make the beeper operation almost seem simple, end quote.

Now, that beeper operation reference is telling. It's a nod to the Israeli covert op last September where explosive-laden pagers were used to kill dozens and injure thousands of Hezbollah fighters. A combination of electronic warfare and misdirection, it showed just how creative Israel can be when it wants to send a message.

Apparently, Iran is paying attention. In what appears to be a somewhat panicked move, the IRGC's Cybersecurity Command has now issued a sweeping order. All Iranian officials and security personnel have been told to avoid internet-connected devices, phones, smartwatches, laptops, anything connected to a network.

the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency published the alert stating, "Cybersecurity Command officials and security teams are prohibited from using all equipment connected to communication networks, including phones, smartwatches, portable computers, etc. Be sure to minimize the use of smart devices connected to the internet and take the necessary precautions." Translation, well, they're scared of being tracked and possibly blown up, which is a reasonable fear.

It's really actually the first sensible thought that the Iranian regime has had in quite some time. All right, just a quick reminder. The President's Daily Brief, well, is now on Facebook. You can check us out at facebook.com slash President's Daily Brief. All the latest headlines and analysis right there on Facebook. Give us a follow and stay in the loop because you don't want to be out of the loop. You want to be in the loop. All right, coming up next, zero migrant releases at the border this past month. That would be a total of zero.

It's a massive shift, obviously, from just one year ago. We've got the numbers when we come back.

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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. In a historic reversal from the Biden era, not a single migrant was released into the U.S. last month, in what border officials credit to President Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration. Just one year ago, under then-President Biden, Border Patrol released more than 62,000 illegal crossers into the country in May. That would be 62,000 more than this past month under the Trump administration.

According to internal customs and border protection data obtained by the New York Post, agents apprehended 8,725 illegal border crossers last month, a 93% drop from the nearly 118,000 caught in May of 2024. Officials say it's not just a dip, it's a transformation. And the cause?

Well, that is being attributed to the full dismantling of Biden's catch-and-release regime and the reassertion of border control as a national security imperative. Acting CBP Commissioner Pete Flores made the administration's position clear in a statement, quote, under the leadership of this administration, CBP has received historic support when compared with last year. Flores added that border numbers are now trending at, quote, historic lows.

describing it as evidence of, quote, sustained success in restoring security along the southern border.

Paul Perez, president of the National Border Patrol Council, didn't mince words. Under Biden, he said, border patrol agents were reduced to overworked clerks. Now they're finally able to return to their mission. He told the Post, quote, we were doing all the processing, detaining, transporting, essentially babysitting. The border was wide open. Perez stated that, quote, now we've got the complete opposite. All of our agents are actually patrolling the border for the first time in many, many years.

CBP officials say the shift has allowed the agency to regain what they call operational control of the southern border, something that's been ultimately out of reach until Trump returned to office. Trump's border czar, Tom Holman, took to X with numbers to back it up. He posted, quote, In the last 24 hours, the Border Patrol encountered a total of 95 illegal aliens across the entire southern border. That is the lowest number ever recorded.

placing the data in stark contrast, of course, to the 10,000-plus daily encounters during President Biden's term.

But, Holman wasn't finished. He called on Congress to make the gains permanent, writing that the country still needs that, referred to as a big beautiful bill, to, quote, finish the job, including launching what he described as, quote, the biggest deportation operation that the American people voted for, end quote. Well, the administration's meshes two cartels, two smugglers, and would-be illegal migrants seems clear. The southern border is no longer an open door.

And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Wednesday, the 18th of June. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, well, you can do that. You know, it's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. See, I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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