PDB Afternoon Bulletin | June 19th, 2025: Who Takes Over If The Mullahs Fall In Iran? & Europe’s Anti-Tourism Rage
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Upfront payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. New customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes if network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com. It's Thursday, the 19th of June. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Israel's dominance over Iran has many asking what happens if the regime actually falls. We'll break down who might take over and why the real fight could just be beginning.

Later in the show, anti-tourism protests are erupting across Europe, with US travelers caught in the middle. We'll tell you what's behind the backlash and what you need to know before your next trip abroad. And here's a pro tip, travel to places where they actually want your tourism dollars. It's not that complicated. But first, today's afternoon spotlight.

As we've been reporting here on the PDB for the past several days, the Israeli Air Force is operating with near impunity in Iranian skies, targeting missile launchers and command bunkers and air defense systems with precision. So now, much of the speculation has shifted. It's no longer about who wins the war, that part's looking more and more like a foregone conclusion. The question is how far Israel plans to go.

Is this campaign over once Iran's nuclear program is destroyed? Is it finished when the Revolutionary Guard's military infrastructure is in ruins? Or does this end with full regime change in Iran?

That's a question that makes many here in the West uneasy. The words "regime change" still carry the baggage of Iraq and Afghanistan, two costly, controversial wars, of course, that failed to produce the kind of liberal democracy that many had envisioned. In the case of Afghanistan, well, it was an almost total failure. But it's a question worth asking, because if the mullahs fall, what comes next? Who takes the helm of Iran after 45 years of Islamic revolutionary rule?

One scenario, one that's quietly gaining traction, is the return of the Iranian royal family, specifically the restoration of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah. For millions of Iranians, the Shah's rule is not ancient history, it's living memory, and in hindsight, many are re-evaluating that era.

Despite its flaws, the monarchy was a time of economic growth, Western engagement, and relative personal freedom, especially for women. Compared to the Islamic Republic's record of repression, economic stagnation, and international isolation, well, the Shah's era is starting to look more appealing to some. But that coin, of course, has two sides. Because for just as many Iranians, the Shah's rule is also a bitter memory, marked by corruption, inequality, and brutal crackdowns.

The regime's feared secret police, savate, imprisoned and tortured dissidents, and the royal family's extravagance stood in stark contrast to the poverty faced by much of the population. That resentment, of course, helped fuel the 1979 revolution that swept the monarchy aside in the first place. So, while the return of a Shah might offer geopolitical stability and align with Western interests, it's far from guaranteed that Iranians themselves would embrace it.

There's a generational divide at play and a lot of distrust to overcome. Still, the signs of something stirring are hard to ignore. Just this week, the Crown Prince released a video statement in both Farsi and English declaring that the Islamic Republic is nearing collapse. He urged the Iranian people to reclaim and rebuild their country and called Supreme Leader Khamenei a "frightened rat" in hiding. If the monarchy were restored, it would likely mean a sharp turn away from Iran's revolutionary foreign policy.

Tehran's support for proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis and militias in Iraq and Syria would almost certainly dry up. A secular pro-Western government could stabilize oil markets, re-engage with the global economy, and possibly realign the Middle East overnight. Now, that all sounds great in theory, but, well, there's a major roadblock and it's not just the mullahs. It's the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, and they're the real power behind the regime.

For all the focus on the clerics, it's the IRGC that holds the keys to the kingdom. They're not just a military force, they're a sprawling empire. They control huge chunks of the Iranian economy from oil and construction to banking and telecommunications. They have their own intelligence networks, media arms, and political operatives. And they answer only to the supreme leader, and sometimes not even to him. So, even if the regime were to collapse, well, the IRGC likely would not. And that's where things

could get dangerous. The IRGC has the resources, the manpower, and tactical experience to wage a protracted insurgency. Think of them less like a defeated army and more like a guerrilla force, deeply embedded within the population, intimately familiar with every corner of the country, and willing to fight for the system they built. They could destabilize any new government from within, sabotage infrastructure, launch assassinations, even strike Western interests abroad.

And they have enough loyalists and enough weapons stockpiled to drag Iran into a brutal and chaotic civil war. So, what happens if the Iranian regime falls? The truth is that we don't know. Maybe the mullahs flee and a broad-based secular coalition rises from the ashes. Maybe the Shah returns to cheering crowds in Tehran. A possibility, but not likely. Maybe there's a transitional council backed by the West, supported by younger Iranians who've had enough

of the old guard. Or maybe the IRGC fights on, carving the country into zones of control and ushering in years of uncertainty. What we do know is this: Iran is not the same country that it was in 1979. The people have changed, the world has changed, and any post-regime scenario, whether it ends in monarchy, democracy, military rule, or civil war, will come with consequences that the West can't fully predict or control.

What's unfolding right now isn't just a war, it's potentially the start of a political vacuum in one of the most dangerous regions on the planet. So, the question isn't just what happens if the regime falls, but whether anyone is ready for what comes after. Coming up next, anti-tourism protests sweep Europe. What's behind the backlash and what American travelers need to know when we come back.

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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. Across Europe, anti-terrorism protests are gaining steam, and American travelers headed abroad this summer should take notice. Over the weekend, demonstrations broke out across popular tourist hotspots including Barcelona, Valencia, San Sebastian, and the Balearic Islands in Spain, as well as Lisbon, Milan, and Venice.

Protesters carried signs reading "Lisbon against touristification" and used water guns on tourists in Palma de Mallorca to dramatize their frustration with over-tourism.

The Louvre in Paris also shut down for hours after workers staged a walkout, protesting overcrowding and staffing shortages. Apparently, they've failed to make the connection between tourist admissions fees and their salaries. So, you ask yourself what's driving this backlash? Locals across Europe say their cities are being overwhelmed by mass tourism. Short-term rental platforms like Airbnb have driven up housing prices,

pushing residents out of their own neighborhoods. Small businesses are being replaced by global chains that cater to tourists, and infrastructure is buckling under the strains of millions of seasonal visitors. In many cases, what were once vibrant communities have turned into what locals call "tourist zones" – overpriced, overcrowded, and hollowed out.

The response from governments has been mixed but increasingly aggressive. Barcelona plans to revoke more than 10,000 short-term rental permits by 2028 and has increased taxes on cruise passengers. Venice now charges day-trippers an entry fee, and Pompeii has capped daily visitors at 20,000.

The U.S. State Department has issued a Level 2 travel advisory for Spain and Italy, urging Americans to exercise increased caution due to civil unrest. Portugal remains at Level 1. U.S. embassies are also alerting travelers to avoid large gatherings and to monitor local news for disruptions.

Importantly, these protests aren't targeting Americans, they're targeting policies and economic pressures linked to mass tourism. But tensions are high, and travelers should be pragmatic and stay aware. So, if you're heading to Europe this summer, check the news, sign up for step alerts from the State Department, stay flexible. These protests may be peaceful, but they're sending a clear message. For many locals, Europe isn't a vacation postcard, it's home, and they'd like you to stay off their doorstep.

And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Thursday, the 19th of June. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And of course, to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. And if you get a second, do me a favor, check out our YouTube channel. That's at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, and

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