PDB Afternoon Bulletin | May 30th, 2025: China-US Tariff Truce On The Verge Of Collapse & A Fragile Peace in South Asia
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It's Friday, the 30th of May. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start things off with the U.S.-China trade truce hanging by a thread, basically, after a series of aggressive moves from the Trump administration. Later in the show, an update on the conflict between India and Pakistan. Both nations have stepped back from the brink of war, but diplomacy, well, that remains on ice.

But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The fragile ceasefire between the US and China over trade now appears to be on the edge of collapse. Just weeks after both sides agreed to pause hostilities and roll back tariffs, the Trump administration has fired off two major new actions that are being seen in Beijing as a sharp escalation, one aimed at China's tech sector and the other hitting Chinese families and their students directly.

Let's start with the tech front. This week, U.S. officials informed semiconductor firms of new export restrictions that will block the sale of advanced chips design software to China. Now, that software is essential for developing the next generation of microchips, used in everything, of course, from smartphones and computers to weapon systems and artificial intelligence. And it's the latest move in Washington's years-long campaign to limit China's technological rise.

Beijing has spent tens of billions of dollars trying to build a homegrown chip industry, but these tools, well, made largely in the U.S. and allied countries, are critical for their effort. And now, under the new rules, Chinese firms and any entities linked to China's military will be cut off from accessing them. The Chinese government, well, as you might imagine, responded with, let's go with the word, fury.

A spokesperson accused the US of abusing the concept of national security and deliberately trying to suppress China's development. But if that move shook China's high-tech ambitions, the second one, well, that struck closer to home. As we reported earlier this week on the PDB, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US will now aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students.

especially those connected even loosely to the Chinese Communist Party or studying insensitive fields like engineering, computer science, and artificial intelligence.

That decision could affect hundreds of thousands of students, many of whom have already spent years and massive amounts of money preparing to study in the U.S. Now, critics warn that for many of these students, disproving ties to the Communist Party is, well, next to impossible in a one-party state where political affiliation often comes by default or necessity. China's foreign ministry blasted the move, calling it ideologically driven and unjust.

Now, I don't want to be the one to point out the irony of a Communist Party official complaining about an ideology.

All right, students interviewed by foreign outlets expressed fear, frustration, and anger, some wondering if they'll be forced to leave the country before completing their degrees. And all of this is unfolding against the backdrop of a fast-approaching deadline. The 90-day trade truce announced earlier this month was supposed to give both sides time to hammer out a longer-term deal. But so far, there's been little progress. In fact, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson had

admitted on Thursday that trade talks are, quote, a bit stalled. Speaking to Fox News, he said, given the multitude and magnitude of the talks, given the complexity, this is going to require leaders of both countries to weigh in with each other, end quote. Now, that implies that despite lower-level negotiations that may take place, any real breakthrough may have to come directly from President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping having direct communication.

Adding even more uncertainty, a federal court just blocked President Trump's plan to impose sweeping new global tariffs, including on Chinese goods. The White House is appealing, but for now, well, the fate of both the tariffs and the trade truce remain in limbo. All right, coming up next, the latest on the conflict between India and Pakistan. Troop drawdowns have begun, but India says talks with Pakistan are still not happening. I'll be right back.

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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. It's been just over two weeks since the world held its breath during a tense four-day standoff between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan in exchange for some missile and drone attacks and heightened fears, of course, of full-scale war. Now, for the time being, it looks like the worst-case scenario was avoided. But to be clear, things are still far from calm.

On the military front, there's been some welcome de-escalation. General Saeher Shamshad Mirza, Pakistan's top military official and chairman of the Joint Chiefs, confirmed that both sides are now in the process of scaling down the troop buildup along the border. He says the goal is to return to pre-conflict deployment levels.

That drawdown is expected to be completed sometime this weekend. General Mirza also noted that while neither side moved toward deploying nuclear weapons during the crisis, the situation was dangerously close to spiraling. As he put in an interview with Reuters, quote, nothing happened this time, but you can't rule out any strategic miscalculation at any time because when the crisis is on, the responses are different. In other words, just

Just because it didn't go nuclear this time doesn't mean we're in the clear the next time. In another encouraging sign of de-escalation, though, the iconic flag-lawing ceremony at the Atarriwaga border has resumed after a brief suspension during the recent hostilities. The daily ritual, known for its theatrical military choreography, is not just a symbol of the two nations' rivalry; it's also a major tourist draw and a barometer of cross-border tensions.

But if the military situation is somewhat normalizing, the diplomatic side is a different story. Relations there remain frozen. Despite a diplomatic outreach campaign this week by Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif, including offers for talks on trade and counterterrorism, India isn't budging. In fact, India flatly rejected the overture. New Delhi's position remains unchanged. No talks until Pakistan takes concrete steps

to dismantle terrorist networks operating across the border. That hardline stance extends to what's known as the Indus Waters Treaty. It's one of the region's most important diplomatic agreements. The treaty governs water sharing between the two nations and has held since 1960, despite multiple wars and flare-ups. But after the terror attack in April, India suspended its participation.

Now, a spokesman for India's Ministry of External Affairs put it bluntly, quote, "'Terror and talks cannot go together. Terror and trade cannot go together. And water and blood cannot flow together.'" End quote.

Indian Prime Minister Modi went even further, saying, quote, the people of Pakistan will have to come forward to bring their country out of terrorism. Either eat bread peacefully or else my bullet is there, end quote. So while the threat of open war may be off the table for now, peace, long-term peace and even basic cooperation, well, seems to remain a relatively distant prospect.

And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Friday, the 30th of May. If you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And as you are no doubt aware...

It's Friday, and our latest edition of the PDB Situation Report hits the airwaves tonight at 10 p.m. on The First TV. Our most excellent guests this week include retired General Ben Hodges – now, he's the former commanding officer of the U.S. Army Europe – and Bill Roggio from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. We're talking Russia's buildup of troops in possible preparation for a new large-scale offensive –

Putin's puppet Dmitry Medvedev's nuclear saber-rattling, Israel's push into Gaza, and U.S. relations with Syria. You can, of course, catch this latest episode and past episodes on our juggernaut of a YouTube channel that's at President's Daily Brief and all podcast platforms everywhere. Tune in. It's a barn burner, as they say. Or maybe they say it's a humdinger. Either one. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back over the weekend with the BDB Situation Report.

Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.