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cover of episode PDB Situation Report | May 3rd, 2025: Economic Pain in Beijing & U.S.–Iran Negotiation Breakdown

PDB Situation Report | May 3rd, 2025: Economic Pain in Beijing & U.S.–Iran Negotiation Breakdown

2025/5/3
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Mike Baker: 美中贸易战对双方经济造成压力，北京正在寻求脱身之计，包括发行关税豁免清单。美国经济在第一季度出现萎缩，部分原因是企业抢在新的关税生效前进口商品。 Steve Yates: 中国尚未在贸易战中妥协，习近平的强硬态度导致对抗升级。中国面临经济压力，但其承受压力的能力可能高于美国。习近平的强硬是主要因素，而非仅仅是对特朗普的回应。重置与中国的关系是必要的，但会带来经济冲击和供应链调整成本。中国对稀土矿物出口的限制加速了美国和欧盟寻求自身生产和精炼能力的努力，这出乎中国的意料。中国政府的隐性补贴扭曲了加工流程，损害了美国及其他国家的加工能力，关税暂时扭转了这一局面。美国庞大的消费者市场是其重要的杠杆，可以影响中国工厂的运作。预计在阵亡将士纪念日前后，美国将与日本、韩国等主要经济体达成框架协议，这将影响与中国的谈判。美中关系的正常化将是一个需要数年时间才能实现的多阶段调整过程。中国试图阻止美国与其盟友达成贸易协议，但美国正在向其盟友施压，要求其与美国合作。美中贸易战也涉及国内政治因素，美国民众对经济压力的承受能力将影响政府的应对策略。政府需要向民众清晰地解释美中贸易战的原因和应对措施，以争取民众的支持。白宫国家安全团队的变动并非完全出于政治原因，也可能反映了内部运作机制的问题。政府内部运作机制的调整、媒体报道以及政治因素都会影响总统的决策，包括人事变动。

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In this episode of The PDB Situation Report:

  • New signs of strain in the U.S.–China tariff war as Beijing weighs potential off-ramps amid economic fallout. Steve Yates from The Heritage Foundation joins us to explain China’s possible next moves.

  • The fourth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran has been postponed—officially due to “logistics.” Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Frank Gaffney offers his take on what’s really behind the delay.

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