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cover of episode 10/31/24: CNN Says Signs For Trump Win, What Polls Are Missing, Kamala Rejects Biden 'Garbage' Comment, Megyn Kelly Rages At Trump MSG Rally

10/31/24: CNN Says Signs For Trump Win, What Polls Are Missing, Kamala Rejects Biden 'Garbage' Comment, Megyn Kelly Rages At Trump MSG Rally

2024/10/31
logo of podcast Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Krystal和Saagar讨论了CNN关于特朗普可能获胜的分析,以及民调可能低估了卡马拉·哈里斯的可能性。他们分析了历史民调数据、早期投票数据以及各州的选情,认为任何结果都有可能发生。他们还采访了Josh (Edinger Mentum),他认为民调可能低估了民主党,并解释了其原因。 Harry Enten的CNN分析指出,如果执政党支持率低至28%,那么执政党通常会输掉选举。他回顾了历史数据,并指出当前的民调数据与执政党失利的情况更相符。 Josh (Edinger Mentum)认为,与2016年和2020年不同,此次民调可能低估了民主党。他引用了一个模型,该模型结合了民调数据和选举前的指标,例如特别选举和初选的结果,来预测民调的准确性。该模型显示,目前没有迹象表明民调大幅低估了卡马拉·哈里斯。他还指出,2022年中期选举中,一些非党派民调机构受到共和党民调的影响,导致低估了民主党。他认为,民调机构可能因为害怕再次犯下2020年那样的错误,而采取了保守的策略,从而导致低估了民主党。 Krystal和Saagar总结了不同民调机构的预测结果,并指出这些结果非常接近,任何结果都有可能发生。他们还讨论了早期投票数据,以及男女选民投票率的差异。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why might the polls be underestimating Kamala Harris in the current election?

Pollsters are fearful of repeating past misses and have made ad hoc changes, potentially overestimating Trump's support.

What evidence supports the idea that pollsters might be overestimating Trump's support?

Pollsters have changed their methodology, using recall to vote, which historically leads to less accurate results.

How has the early voting trend in Georgia been interpreted in relation to party support?

Early voting in Georgia shows a more depolarized electorate with more Republicans voting early than in previous cycles.

Why did Kamala Harris distance herself from Joe Biden's 'garbage' comment?

She aimed to avoid a repeat of the 'deplorables' moment and protect her campaign from Biden's gaffes.

What was Megyn Kelly's critique of Trump's Madison Square Garden rally?

She criticized the bro-tastic tone, suggesting it alienates women and normie voters crucial for winning the election.

Why did Nicky Jam withdraw his endorsement of Trump?

He cited disrespect shown to Puerto Rico, influenced by Tony Hinchcliffe's joke at the MSG rally.

What did Joe Rogan say about Tony Hinchcliffe's Puerto Rico joke?

Rogan warned Hinchcliffe that the joke could get him stabbed due to its controversial nature.

Chapters
Krystal and Saagar discuss the possibility that the polls might be underestimating Kamala Harris's chances in the upcoming election, citing historical trends and current polling data.
  • Historical trends show incumbent parties losing when public approval is low.
  • Current polling data shows a slight edge for Kamala Harris in key states.
  • The gender gap in early voting could be a significant factor.

Shownotes Transcript

Krystal and Saagar discuss CNN says signs there for Trump win, what the pollsters are missing, Kamala rejects Biden 'garbage' comment, Megyn Kelly furious at Trump MSG rally, Rogan reveals he warned Kill Tony on Puerto Rico joke.

 

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