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cover of episode 11/1/24: FINAL POLLS Show Kamala Movement In Blue Wall, Trump Calls Out Liz Cheney

11/1/24: FINAL POLLS Show Kamala Movement In Blue Wall, Trump Calls Out Liz Cheney

2024/11/1
logo of podcast Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Chris
投资分析师和顾问,专注于小盘价值基金的比较和分析。
E
Emily
R
Ryan
讨论创建自由派版本的乔·罗根的播客主持人。
S
Sagar
Topics
Emily:认为民主党更有胜算,因为共和党低估了特朗普的不受欢迎程度,并认为卡马拉·哈里斯尽管竞选表现不佳,但最终会获胜。她分析了郊区和农村选民的投票倾向,认为郊区选民对民主党的支持对选举结果至关重要。 Chris:预测卡马拉·哈里斯将赢得威斯康星州和密歇根州,而特朗普将赢得宾夕法尼亚州。他认为,如果卡马拉·哈里斯获胜,她将通过赢得阳光地带的选民实现。他还分析了各种民调数据,指出许多民调机构为了得到平局的结果而操纵数据,并认为民调机构没有动力去争取准确性,他们更倾向于通过避免冒险来保持未来的业务。此外,他还讨论了对特朗普的支持者来说,耻辱感已经消失,这正在影响民调结果。 Ryan:预测卡马拉·哈里斯将赢得宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州,但在其他地方都将失败,最终以270比268的微弱优势获胜。他认为,民主党仍然在黑人选民中获得很高的支持率,即使他们在农村地区的支持率下降,只要赢得郊区和城市的选民,他们就可以输掉农村地区。他还指出,特朗普依赖男性选民是一个冒险的赌注。 Emily:认为威斯康星州的选情非常胶着,卡马拉·哈里斯在全国平均支持率略微领先。她分析了威斯康星州的选民构成,指出共和党候选人面临的挑战,以及特朗普在农村地区支持率上升,但在郊区地区支持率下降的情况。 Chris:分析了CNN的最新民调结果,指出在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州,卡马拉·哈里斯和特朗普的支持率非常接近,宾夕法尼亚州则打成平手。他还指出,卡马拉·哈里斯在郊区选民中的支持率是其隐藏的优势,而特朗普的主要优势在于能够争取农村选民。他分析了早期投票数据,指出佐治亚州的早期投票率最高的是共和党占主导地位的农村地区,并讨论了共和党内部对选举结果存在两种截然不同的观点:一种是担忧郊区选民的流失,另一种是认为特朗普被低估了。 Ryan:认为民主党在男性选民中的支持率低迷,这是一个长期存在的问题。他还分析了共和党试图通过各种方式来激励男性选民投票的情况,并指出堕胎公投等问题导致的性别差距可能会对共和党造成不利影响。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are the final polls showing movement in Kamala Harris' favor in the Blue Wall states?

Polls indicate Kamala Harris is up in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, potentially due to strong suburban support and high enthusiasm among Democrats.

Why did Trump call out Liz Cheney in his recent comments?

Trump criticized Liz Cheney for not endorsing him and called her a 'radical war hawk,' suggesting she lacks real-world experience with war.

Why are some pollsters criticized for their methods in this election?

Pollsters are accused of adjusting results to avoid being wrong, leading to many polls showing a tied race rather than reflecting true variability.

Why is there a focus on early voting turnout in rural areas?

High early voting turnout in rural areas indicates strong enthusiasm among Republican voters, which could be crucial for Trump's chances.

Why might Kamala Harris' path to victory be through the Sun Belt states?

Harris could win by securing key states like North Carolina and Nevada, leveraging strong support in more suburban and diverse areas.

Why is there skepticism about the accuracy of betting markets in predicting the election outcome?

Betting markets have shown significant shifts, potentially due to irrational exuberance and large bets, making them less reliable than traditional polls.

Why might Trump's comments about Liz Cheney be problematic for his campaign?

His comments could alienate suburban women voters who respect Liz Cheney and are concerned about decorum and violent rhetoric.

Chapters
The Breaking Points team discusses the latest polls leading into the final weekend before election day, focusing on the key battleground states and the potential outcomes.
  • Polls are showing a tight race, with Kamala Harris leading in some key states.
  • Trump is making gains in rural areas, but the suburbs remain a critical battleground.
  • The team debates the accuracy of the polls and the potential for a surprise outcome.

Shownotes Transcript

The Breaking Points team discusses the latest polls leading into the final weekend before election day, and did Trump call for Liz Cheney firing squad?

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