4/24/25: China Shuts Down Trump Tariff Offer, Trump Reverses On America First, Trump Loses Young Male Voters, Trump Begs Putin To Stop Bombing Ukraine
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Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our

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Lots of things going on here in the world. So we've got some updates with regard to the markets and China in particular saying that, hey, we're not anywhere close to a deal. There aren't even talks going on. So as of 7.56 right now, futures are down. So we'll get into all of that. We've also got Jeff Stein joining with the very latest with regards to the economic prospects and the trade war. We're also taking a deep dive into Trump's policy.

plummeting approval ratings, specifically with regard to some of the groups that he had really improved his performance among. We're talking about young men. We're talking about Latinos, how they are feeling about all of this and significantly how much tariffs are really weighing on his economic approval at this point.

We're going to have an update on the very latest with regard to Ukraine, where the potential peace talks are. There are a lot of moving parts there, so we'll break that down for you. We're also taking a look at the continued crackdown on quote-unquote anti-Semitism. Jordan Peterson entering the debate and Dave Smith weighing in and responding to that. So that'll be an interesting one. We've got a...

A bunch of updates for you with regard to the Trump administration's deportations and use of the Alien Enemies Act. One thing that we wanted to take a look at this morning is ICE held a U.S. citizen for 10 days wrongly in detention, and they've now been caught and called out for just blatantly lying about the chain of events there. So we'll dig into that.

We're going to be joined also by Abdul El-Sayed. He is running for Senate in the state of Michigan, and he is the first major candidate to receive Bernie Sanders' endorsement. That is going to be a heated primary. Abdul El-Sayed comes from the left of the party. He has said what Israel is doing in Gaza is genocide. He is for Medicare for all. So really interesting to check in with him and see how his campaign is getting off to here in the early days. That's right. We're going to talk to him, and he's also got a pro-Israel opponent.

who's already in the race. So it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. Yeah, she gets a lot of APAC money, Haley Stevens, as a opponent. So many people are saying. Could be an interesting matchup there, especially in the state of Michigan. Yeah, we're just looking literally at the disclosures. That's right. Before we get to that, thank you to everybody who has been signing up for Premium. We really appreciate you. Obviously, we've had a

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All right, let's go ahead and get to tariffs. As Crystal said, there has been some major movement. Donald Trump, well, it appeared originally he was blinking on China. He's blinking again, but the Chinese may not be being very receptive to that blink. Here was some of the comments that he made in the Oval Office. Let's take a listen.

I think most of them will. And I think we're going to treat them very fairly. Were you worried about what the 145% tariffs were doing to small businesses here in the U.S.? Is that why you're bringing it down? No, no, no. I haven't brought it down. I haven't brought it down. It's still 145%. I haven't brought it down. I said it's a high tariff. It is a high tariff, but I haven't brought it down.

It basically means China's not doing any business with us, essentially, because it's a very high number. So when you add that to the price of a product, you know, a lot of those products aren't going to sell. But China's not doing any business. They were doing they were doing one point one.

trillion dollars. Think of that. $1.1 trillion. You know what that is? And it was just very unfair to us. And we were doing very little, relatively very little with them. It was a one-sided, very one-sided. But we get along. I get along very well with President Xi, and I hope we can make a deal. Otherwise, we'll set a price. And

Hopefully they'll come here and they'll contribute. And if they don't, that's OK. Otherwise, they'll set a price. We'll see about that, though, and what that price is. Let's get in some indications. Put this up there on the screen. Major discussions inside of the White House, quote, to cut

levies by half in some cases, though Trump has yet to make a final decision. The Trump administration is considering actually unilaterally slashing its steep tariffs on Chinese imports, in some cases almost by half to some 50 or 65 percent. And the administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to one proposed by the House Committee on China late last year, 35 percent levies for items that the U.S. deems not a threat to national security, 100 percent for those deemed a strategic

Perhaps the most important thing in this is actually that the quote, the bill would propose phasing in these levies over a five-year period, which would mean basically a complete change in the way that these tariffs are being implemented from 50% to 65%. It would instead be a phase-in period.

Another way to describe that would be something that maybe you could have done from the very beginning without igniting massive market turmoil, chaos, dropping freight traffic by some 60 to 85 percent. You know, Crystal, it's interesting. It appears that one of the things that really forced Trump's hand on this was a meeting with the CEOs of Target and Walmart where they told him in no uncertain terms, sir,

If you do not have a change to the status quo, we will have shortages on shelves in two weeks time and that in one month to two months time, you will see full blown price increase as well as massive empty shelves all across the country. And I think it was then that it set in for Trump what he actually had instituted and had done. Yeah. And there even if today we get the announcement, OK, forget it. We're rolling it all back. We're not doing this at all.

there will still be very significant reverberating impacts.

And, you know, we all got kind of a lesson in this during COVID. The way that a disruption does not, you can't just snap your fingers and, okay, we're back to normal now and everything flows the way that it used to. So I was digging into some like transport and logistics Twitter this morning, and they were talking about the fact that it takes about 30 days to ship from China to LA. It's about 45 to Houston. It's about 55 to New York.

So if you do the math on when Liberation Day started and when you're really going to have the, you know, noticeable impacts in terms of what is coming in from China, talking about the beginning of May, that's a week away where you're really going to start to see this show up in L.A. first and then, you know, rippling across the country.

Like I said, even if there's a rollback, you are going to have significant problems and it is going to take a while to untangle things. Now, that is before we even talk about the fact that China is out saying, hey, there are no deal talks. And if they want to talk, OK, that's fine. But we are not going to unilaterally submit to your bullying anymore.

And it seems like, you know, just to recap the sort of Trump administration position, first Trump comes out and says, ah, it's not going to be 145. 145 is very high. We're going to do something different. And that's the real signal of, OK, they're completely backing off of this. Then you got Scott Besson out saying, well, we haven't really, you know, he didn't say we're backing off the tariffs right now. Now you have this indication from China that

there are not talks that are ongoing. So there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of question marks about whether, in fact, they're going to move off this position in the immediate term, because it feels like the Trump administration saga is trying to get some sort of face saving capitulation from China. And China doesn't seem particularly willing to want to give them that. So, you

We're at a bit of an impasse right now, and it is totally unclear whether we are moving off of these extraordinarily high rates anytime soon. Exactly. And let's put the next one, please, up on the screen. This was from Scott Besson, who immediately actually walked back of the Wall Street Journal report. He said that Trump has not made any unilateral offer to cut tariffs. But let's just be very clear. If there is any back down from 145 for where things are right now, it would be a unilateral offer.

cut. One of the reasons, though, that they're constantly trying to juice the markets is because they see the writing on the wall. We had bond yields almost go up to 5% just two days ago. It's come down slightly from there. But there has been, and I repeat, there has been no negotiation with the Chinese. In fact, the Chinese are

are the ones who are making that very clear. Let's go ahead and put this video up on the screen. This was a video that was released by the Chinese foreign ministry. They say, "We have said from Taiwan, "tariff and trade wars have no winners. "Protectionism leads nowhere. "To decouple is to self-alienate." They continue, "This tariff war is launched by the United States. "We have made it very clear "that China does not look for a war, "but neither are we afraid of it. "We will fight if fight we must. "Our doors are open if the US wants to talk

If a negotiated solution is truly what the U.S. wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and seek dialogue based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit. So to keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure, they say, is not the right way to deal with China, and it simply will not.

work. So that was an important speech there given in Beijing by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And it indicates everything that I've also even heard from behind the scenes where this idea of

that there are major talks happening like there were, let's say, with the Japanese. It's just not reality. The only thing that is currently open in dialogue with China is routine diplomatic, you know, routine like diplomatic talk. Nothing to do with tariff or de-escalation. There has been only, you know, what, one phone call with President Xi Jinping and with President Trump. The Secretary Besant, there's been

no high-level meeting there that has happened. There's been no foreign exchange on the tariffs. And in fact, it's the Trump administration now realizing truly for the first time what this is all going to look like. I want to point everybody to an interview that actually just came out this morning by a guy named David Wu. And actually, he was the former analyst over at Bank of America, just a Trump supporter, somebody who supported not only Donald Trump, but even renegotiation of trade

Something he warns of in his latest episode is that you are going to see widespread disruption, like you said, even if you back off today with shortages in shelves, price increases that will hit in the next two-week, two-month period. All of this is unavoidable, even if there was a

capitulation tomorrow, which does not seem very likely. And the really astounding part of all of this, and this does, I guess, speak to the wisdom of the stock market, is that the reason why I have been paying attention here to the market is because of how much of a leading and a real-time indicator of what the future is expected to look like. And when you saw a

all of the retailers that are so heavily reliant on China, and we see the freight traffic numbers just absolutely plunge. I mean, you said you dug into the numbers. Let's really underscore for people what a 60% drop in freight traffic means. That is insane. That means that

all of the routine just-in-time deliveries that people rely on are done. I mean, the inventory, the way that, this could be a whole podcast in and of itself, in the way that just-in-time delivery and inventory cost has basically moved it so the US businesses, they don't wanna pay to be able to house a lot of the things

They're taking up space. It costs them rent. It costs them all these other things. So they rely on these just-in-time, very, very nimble supply chains, which are great for efficiency but terrible for being autonomous. Well, we didn't really change a lot of that after COVID. In fact, we became more reliant on the Chinese. Our trade deficit went up. Now, you may say, yeah, let's do something about it. I agree. But guess what?

And it costs a lot of money coming from the United States government to be able to incentivize any of that. And we don't see a single dollar that has yet been appropriated for any of those purposes. So this is about as bad as it gets. And that's something that I'm pointing people to the David Wu podcast because he is someone who supported the administration and supports many of the goals of the administration. He says you cannot point to a single triumph economically from the Trump administration, from its stated agenda, from

Doge cuts to the trade war and his disapproval. These are serious people, you know, serious people who actually want to see many of the things that Trump allegedly says that he wants to do and says that it's not happening. Yeah. I mean, Steve Bannon, you and I were both sharing in our DMs, the Steve Bannon clip where he's like, hey, Doge, what happened? You know, we need an, he's saying we need an audit of Doge, which is hilarious. It's like, I think Weigel's

Dave Weigel tweeted, you need a Department of Government Efficiency monitoring the Department of Government Efficiency. But, you know, he's basically acknowledging the thing that you claimed you were doing, you completely failed at. And where's any sort of Pentagon cuts? Where's any sort of actual fraud? Like, OK, you canceled. This is now my words, not his. OK, you canceled some programs that like you didn't like because of their ideological valence or at least your sense of their ideological valence. But.

By any metric, even the metrics they set out, even with their phony inflated numbers, total and complete failure. And but real destruction. And I mean, it's kind of similar here with tariffs, total and complete failure, but real destruction.

catastrophic destruction. And when you're talking about supply chains, you're talking about what are the prices are going to be, what's going to even be available to consumers, what's going to be on the shelves. And you're talking about jobs. I mean, just if you taking the consumer side of it out of it, out of it altogether, you know, the trucking industry is massive.

Trucking, that's one of the top jobs for non-college educated men. That's going to take a huge hit. All of the people that work at the ports and make sure that your goods are unloaded and brought to the stores. I mean, all of that is going to take a huge hit.

Not to mention we covered yesterday. We already have if one of the supposed goals is to increase U.S. manufacturing, you already have so many U.S. manufacturers, including Stellantis, including 200 year old paper mill that's having to shut its doors.

They're already saying, hey, we have to do layoffs now. Like, forget about investing more. We actually need to cut back. Now, some of these companies use any excuse to lay off people. And I'm sure that's some of what is going on right now. But it's also a real estimate of the fact that the business climate has turned bad.

sour because of an intentional plan by the Trump administration. And just one more note on China, you can put A5 up on the screen here. This is another indication that, you know, if the U.S. was like, OK, well, some of these countries are going to have to pick between us and China. The writing is increasingly on the wall. What direction they're leaning. The European Parliament is at a final stages of talks with China to remove sanctions on lawmakers. So just an indication of like thawing of relations there that

could open the door to more direct negotiations between Europe and China and, you know, improve trade relationships there as well. But I do think China's role here is really important. You know, they sort of set the tone of,

of, hey, we're not falling in line here. We're not capitulating to this bullying. We are going to hold the line. We're going to, you know, we're going to retaliate. And they said, okay, we're retaliated to a certain point. That's it. That's all we're going to do. And we're going to wait and see what the U.S. does.

I think if they had capitulated and offered concessions pretty quickly, I think you would have seen a lot of countries around the world likely to follow suit and also feel like, OK, well, if China can't stand up to them, like what chance do we have? And so I do think that China's posture is part of the reason why, as of today, you know, 8, 12 in the morning, April 24th.

We have zero deals that have been, you know, that have been finalized that are crafted that are anywhere near finalized.

some sort of final state. We have zero. They were supposed to do what 90 deals in 90 days were at zero. So on every level, whether it's, you know, the manufacturing job loss, whether it's the, you know, the treasury yields going up instead of down, that was another supposed goal here, or whether it's, you know, the idea of crafting all of these deals around the world on every single level, even by their own stated metrics, this thing has failed.

Right. And, you know, I actually think that Japan was also a major leading indicator because this is a critical U.S. ally. And for them, they come to America and they're like, OK, what do you guys want? And they're like, well, what are you offering? They're like, but what do you want?

and for them to go home, and then for their prime minister. So I've come to understand a little bit more about this. The Japanese prime minister was a little bit on shaky ground. What he is now doing is actually standing up to Trump and the United States in parliament to shore up his political standing in the party

and to basically have a nationalist rally around the flag where people are not going to capitulate to what they see as capricious US behavior and demands. At the very same time, are willing, in this case, to deal with what they see as the serious Chinese. Keep in mind, these countries,

hate each other. But for them, it's about money. It's about seriousness. And for them, they don't see a current path forward with the administration, which is realistic. I also just got this. This is a new statement from the Chinese foreign ministry literally just this morning. They say Beijing is now telling the United States, you must completely cancel all

unilateral tariff measures if it wants trade talks. The strongest comments yet from the foreign ministry. Beijing says there are no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. That's confirming what I was saying earlier, despite some recent signs of softening on the issue. They say this is not sustainable and they say the unilateral tariff measures were initiated by the United States. If the U.S. truly wants to solve the problem, it must completely cancel all measures against China and

find a way to resolve differences through equal dialogue. So you can see exactly there. They're saying, no, we don't care anything that you say. Nothing is on the table. No communications, no high-level talks. Cancel them or so be it. And the reason why I think they're on stronger ground is they've been preparing. This is gonna be very relating to our Ukraine conversation. They have prepared for this for 20 years and they have especially prepared for this in the last five.

And then what they saw after the COVID crisis is, look, they can read a poll. They could see how Americans were really upset about the Wuhan lab and about the virus. They were preparing for any sort of decoupling. And so they, with the One Belt, One Road initiative and the 2025 plan from China over the last decade, have invested massive amounts of money into the domestic supply chain. Then they actually got to battle test with China.

what it looks like when the Western financial system decouples from another country, which previously had lots of ties, called Russia. And they got to sit there and observe the entire global financial system, how it interacts and what it does. And in that period, they've now had years to build alternatives. They've had the BRIC conference. They've shored up the yarn. They've made sure that they can go all around the world for bilateral negotiations.

and make sure that at least in their hemisphere that they can stand strong. They have enough capital reserves and domestic supply chain to be able to pump into the economy. Their population is frothing at the mouth right now against the United States. The Chinese censors are basically allowing anything critical of the U.S. to go massively viral inside of the country. All

And again, all of this is directed specifically at us. They are very prepared, much stronger than we are right now for any sort of preparation of a long-term trade war. And just think about here the visage of empty shelves in the United States of America and what that would mean for people. Remember the gas crisis. That's truly what destroyed Jimmy Carter. Chaos. That's what it all feels like, right? Yeah, no, that's right. And I mean, also just like on a human level.

If you're China and you're looking at our leadership and the way they're making decisions, you know, with this preposterous chart that doesn't make any sense and throwing tariffs on penguins and, you know, Lesotho. And I mean, it's just idiocy from the start. They

Then you're reading the reporting about how this is no 4D chess. Trump was arm twisted by basically like a plot between Besson and Lutnik while Peter Navarro was on the other side of the building to change his mind on this. Like you just have to look at what's going on and say these people are not serious.

Like, they're not serious. They don't have a plan. They don't have a strategy. It is just as dumb as it looks to be on the surface. So, yeah, I feel pretty good in my, you know, head-to-head matchup against this, like, clown car of buffoons and sycophants. So I think there's, you know, some of that as well. And...

I think we are – it is very unclear how this ultimately gets resolved with China because when they say, look, you take the tariffs off and we can talk, I think they mean it. I mean they have been very sort of steadfast in their positioning, and you're right to point to Russia as really a test run.

for what this could look like and how it will ultimately go. And it's not that Russia didn't suffer any consequences from the all-out financial war that we wage on them. And it's not like our relationship with Russia is the same or as extensive as our relationship with China, but they got to have a kind of a dry run

and have to feel fairly solid in their position. And it is ironic, Sagar, to your point. This is separate and apart from China, but the Canadians have their elections next week and Trump has really revived liberalism. Yeah.

Around the world. That's true. Yeah, he's actually shored up a lot of the forces that he would hate. So like liberal internationalism is actually arguably stronger than ever, which is kind of curious. Well, you know, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. All right, we've got Jeff Stein standing by to break down some more of this, specifically on Powell and Trump's backing down on firing him. Let's get to it.

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Joining us now is Jeff Stein of The Washington Post, great friend of the show, to talk about his latest reporting and some of the developments on Trump's tariffs. Good to see you, Jeff. Thanks for joining us.

Hey, my pleasure. Always happy to be on. Thanks. All right. So Secretary Scott Besant, seemingly the, quote, voice of reason, at least according to Wall Street in the room, giving some new comments about how he wants to be clear that America first does not mean America alone. A little bit different than some of the things he said previously. Let's take a listen and we're going to get your reaction. This morning, I will explain how they can provide that leadership to build safer, stronger and more prosperous economies all around the world.

I wish to invite my international counterparts to join us in working toward these goals. On this point, I wish to be clear: America first does not mean America alone. To the contrary, it is a call for deeper collaboration and mutual respect among trade partners.

Far from stepping back, America First seeks to expand U.S. leadership in international institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. By embracing a stronger leadership role, America First seeks to restore fairness to the international economic system.

So, Jeff, what do you make of those comments in the wake of, you know, reciprocal, unilateral tariffs put upon the entire world, taken off, the posture through which this has all happened and some pretty acrimonious negotiations? You know, how does that fit with a lot of the reporting that you have from behind the scenes?

I thought it was funny that the Secretary used that phrase because Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, definitely no MAGA person, in 2021 said, quote, America first must not mean America alone, which is almost exactly what the current Treasury Secretary said. I don't know if they realized that they had said something almost exactly what their predecessor had said or if it was just a coincidence.

I think to your point, there have been a number of very high profile fight in the last two or three weeks over the scope of the tariff policy. Whereas previously, Peter Navarro, who is the Uber hawk who wants more and more and more confrontation, more and more trade barriers, more conflict with our international economic allies.

has-- was initially sort of carrying the day in the initial round of tariff debates. Besant is actually sort of on the ascendance. And you can really see that in the tone and the message he's conveying there, which is so contrary to the actions that the White House was taking just a few weeks ago. I mean, we imposed unilateral tariffs on every country, essentially, dozens and dozens of countries, over 70, I think, was the final number.

And Essend here is trying to communicate that, you know, that is not necessarily the way of the future, that what Navarro's success was in the early days of the trade war may not last forever. Of course, the problems we can discuss is that

Navarro, that's Uber hawk right next to Trump at all times, is still just a breath away from power in the sense that anytime Trump wants him or is feeling an impulse to hit another country with high tariffs, he can just call Peter or just invite him into the Oval.

There's a real dissonance here between the messages from Navarro and the messages from Besson. Besson, as all the sort of Palisade reporting shows and as our reporting shows as well, has had the upper hand in a range of sort of policy debates before.

in the last couple of weeks. And so I think that that's being reflected in this public communication as well, where he's feeling emboldened to say things like the clip you played. Got it. Yeah. I mean, it's hilarious after not only the way they've approached the trade war. I mean, a few weeks ago, Trump said something like we shouldn't even have supply lines, right? Like literally everything we're going to have like this North Korea style, fully autarkic economy. And you have not only that you've

threatening war against Denmark and Canada and Mexico and Iran and all these countries around the world. J.D. Vance going to Europe and lecturing them about free speech and then, you know, coming here and cracking down on college students who dare to say anything that they don't like about Israel.

So you've had this incredibly adversarial approach around the world. And that rhetoric is still coming from Trump in a lot of ways. I mean, just yesterday evening, he did this, you know, Oval Office press avail and was still calling Trudeau the governor of Canada. We can go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of that. Trudeau, who I call Governor Trudeau, affectionately, I asked him...

Why are we spending $200 billion to support Canada, to subsidize Canada? And he was unable to answer the question. I mean, why are we doing that? And I have to be honest, as a state, it works great. As a nation, considering the fact that most of the nation, you know, 95% of Canada, what they do is they buy from us and they sell to us. They sell to us. If we didn't buy their oil, if we didn't buy their... And we don't need their oil.

They have more oil than anyone, but we don't need their oil, we don't need their lumber, we don't need their cars, we don't need anything. So I said, why are we doing this? Why are we spending $200 billion? It doesn't make sense.

So you still have Trump saying things like that. You also I just saw Japan says, hey, we're not going to be part of any trade bloc that seeks to isolate China because our trade with China is too important. So in some ways, even if Besant is, you know, in the driver's seat right now, I feel like the damage is already done with the way that this administration has conducted itself, you know, globally and also with the type of rhetoric that Trump still embraces and still clearly is like where his heart actually is at.

I think the fundamental problem for them here in some ways is that Besson and to some degree Trump have clearly been totally spooked by what happened, not really even primarily in the stock market, but what happened in the bond market, which threatened to raise borrowing costs for tens of millions of Americans, a sudden economic shock, which would be visible and devastating and immediate.

And for Besson, clearly the goal of the last few weeks after the Liberation Day tariffs has been to turn down the temperature to kind of get people to sort of like step back from the brink to relax a little bit so we can get some breathing room for the economy, because he will be blamed if

This is the most catastrophic self-inflicted economic leadership in American history, which if the U.S. just drove off the cliff into a recession, many people would legitimately say they had done. But remember, obviously, that Trump's entire campaign

worldview is that you need to maintain maximal leverage over other people at all times. That is how you get what you want. You sort of control them, you insult them, you make them think that you're kind of crazy and who knows what you're going to do next. So it's this brinksmanship that is core to what Donald Trump has been saying about human nature, really, like about the fundamental relations between people for four decades. And

Messin's goal of turning down the temperature is just fundamentally incompatible with Trump's strategy of maintaining maximal brinksmanship through this crisis.

style that you were alluding to. And it produces this, you know, as I said, extreme dissonance between the president and his top economic advisor. You know, I met yesterday with the head of, you know, the economic team for a foreign country. And the

It's the kind of meeting as a reporter you're excited to hear what they're hearing. What message are they getting from Treasury or Commerce or the White House? And then I can use that to report on what's happening. And I get to the meeting, and instead of them telling me what they're hearing, all they want to do is ask me what I'm hearing. And they're asking me, when can we get a deal?

And I'm like, no, no, I asked you that question. Like you were supposed to tell me. And it reflects like the fact that nobody knows, like even I get the sense that the Trump people like don't themselves know exactly what the president wants. And in the absence of that knowledge, it's really, really hard to like prevent an economic collapse because I mean, I don't want to be too dramatic here, but like,

There are real risks that the uncertainty that they're causing will push us into a recession where a lot of people get hurt. And even if that doesn't happen, it seems quite clear that they're raising the risk. You know, Jeff, at the same time, one of the more maximal things that Trump had signaled was that he was going to fire Jerome Powell. You, though, let's put A8, please, up on the screen. You have some reporting from behind the scenes about how some of his top aides

told him to tone down the attacks on Powell. He seems to have listened. He said, OK, I'm not going to fire him. I never had any plans to do so. So what's going on behind that? Because I feel like his decision making around the Fed is important for us to try and at least understand his mindset with respect to tariffs or any of these other big things that he says. Yeah, it's a tricky story because, you know, for months I've been hearing, you know, that people who are talking to Trump or talking to people who are close to Trump

That he's been sort of saying, "Oh, Powell, we should get rid of him. I don't really like what he's doing." And it's really hard to gauge the seriousness of that because Trump just kind of grousing about how he doesn't like what Powell's up to is really different than drawing up the plan and hitting the big red button.

What is clear is that over the last, I guess on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported on the rumors that we've been hearing as well for a long time, which is that Trump was talking about this. In response to that Wall Street Journal story, the markets tanked. As that process was unfolding, the people who have been most concerned about the markets within the administration, maybe not necessarily the most concerned, but among the most concerned,

Federal Secretary Besant and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went to the president and said,

A, we don't think that this might even be legal. Trump could fire Powell, but then he could still remain there. You would get the worst of both worlds, and that the market would be really destabilized. I think the way someone put it to me was basically that if you fire Powell, Mr. President, we cannot maintain all of these fights simultaneously. Let's pick our battles a little bit.

I was going to be gone anyway, I think in late 2026. Just hold off on that for now. It doesn't mean that Trump wasn't grousing about the potential, but that suggests, as you're suggesting, Sakhar, that there's a recognition here that they can't be fighting all battles simultaneously at all times. I guess that was redundant, but there's a limit to how much they can fight. I feel like that--

is a comforting thing, but how much have they already done? How much is this genie out of the bottle? I don't know if you guys have been seeing some of the shipping data. Shipping bookings down 60% between the US and China. Consumer confidence now at its second lowest level in the last 1952.

We're in this weird place right now where the hard economic data, jobs and inflation and GDP are still looking totally fine for the most part. But it's this like soft data that measures that sort of like more real and more in real time, but is not as as macro and sweeping that look that is flashing red. And I think the White House is very aware of that. Yeah. I mean, what is your assessment of that, Jeff? How much even if this is something soccer and I were just talking about,

Even if they back away from everything now, how much damage has already been done? I've seen the comparison, Joe Weisenthal and others making the comparison to basically like the COVID disruptions that led to inflation, that led to shortages, that took so long to untangle. It's not like you can just snap your fingers and unsnarl all of these things. Yeah, I've been kind of like referred to it as the Wiley E. Coyote economy in the sense that like we run off a cliff, right?

And we are we have not looked down yet. Like, we just don't know what is beneath us because the as I was sort of saying, like the most important economic data is pretty delayed, which is frustrating for reporters to get a good sense of what's happening.

I think there are reasons to think that it won't be nearly as bad as 2008 or 2020. Trade is hugely important to the US economy, but it's 15% of the economy is imports. You double it, another 15% is exports.

30%, 25%. Most of the tariffs on other countries have been pulled back, but it's really the China question that is the most significant right now. Then again, they've exempted electronics, so maybe that will bail them out a little bit. We have a story I scooped this morning about rare earth metals, which don't ask me to name them because I couldn't, but they're crucial component parts for

semis and the defense industry and a huge range of healthcare functions, companies are telling us that they're on sort of their last reserve the next month or so. And China has cut those off. China has essentially a chokehold on these rare earths, or rather the processing of these rare earths, but just as well, might as well be the production of them. And that choke point by China is a really, really

serious potential blow to the US economy, which the Chinese know and are full while exploiting. So I think, you know, given some of the softer tone from Trump in the last few days, it is quite likely that the White House is looking at economic data that is really not good. And

And, you know, it's a cliche, but like economics is extremely psychological. If I think that you're not making a purchase, then I'm going to wait for the price to go down, which means I'm not buying, which means the guy across the street will also not buy because he'll wait for the price to come down. And that's pretty soon how you have a really serious downturn. Yeah, man, grim stuff. But we always appreciate your reporting, Jeff. Thank you. Hey, my pleasure. Thanks for having me on, guys.

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So as all of this unfolds with the trade war and the anti-Semitism, quote unquote, crackdown and the Alien Enemies Act and the court battles, we thought we would check in with how Trump is doing in general in the polls, but specifically with some of the groups involved.

where he really made gains vis-a-vis his own past performance, but also Republican Party performance with some of these key demographic groups. And some of these numbers are really, really notable. Let's put this first one up on the screen. Probably the most stunning, given how well Trump performed with young men. We have a new Harvard Youth poll, and his disapproval with young men is now at 59%.

40% say that they are worse off now under Trump. That is versus 29% only that say they are better off. 47%, so almost a majority, say that Trump will hurt the economy. And just back in January, 62%.

2% actually approved of Trump on the economy. So Sagar, you know, we can look at the election results and how he really outperformed with this group vis-a-vis previous Republicans and vis-a-vis his own performance in 2016 and 2020. And we can also look at the way this group felt about him coming into the administration. There was a lot of hope that, you know, he'd be a great president for business and he would help them economically and

You know, there were some cultural alignments there as well. And just as quickly as he won some of these folks over, it seems like they have soured and are unhappy. I have to think that the trade war is just a gigantic part of that. Trade war is massive. And so really, when you dig into a lot of this stuff, you can actually see in the minute groups. Keep in mind, this is the Pew Research, you know, the actual demographic analysis.

poll, which is pretty good in terms of its substance. I mean, I will obviously give the caveat polls, et cetera, with Trump have not always been all that accurate. But I actually do think that on demographics like young men and on Latinos, those were accurately captured in 2024. And a lot of them fit with the global data that we saw coming out. Now, when we think again about the

kind of where things are headed across the globe, economic concerns, and broadly also around media environment and top issues, a lot of this would track. So let's put the next one up on the screen because we can dig even further, I think, into it. What you see here is a similar sharp drop-off of approval amongst Hispanics in the Pew Research Poll. 27% approve, 72% disapprove. Now, I mean, I should always put

the caveat that there are many people who support Trump and or voted for him who actually disapproved of him, which is kind of an interesting dynamic. But considering that he's at least, as far as we know, not going to be on the ballot again, the reason why I think that we should at least look here is that the drop-off in constituency can tell us a little bit about the issues that we are seeing contribute to this. So

One of them is deportation and immigration. There's just no question. If you ask people, especially issue by issue, what they approve most of of Trump, even within immigration, it's about, quote, border security, and it's about the drop-off in the number of border crossings.

But when you start to get into El Salvador and specifically the Abrego Garcia case, you start to see this 2772 stuff begin to show up. Same on the young men that you flagged. The reason why I think that one is more important is that young men and young women right now, and we're going to get to this in a little bit, are facing an absolutely devastating economic situation where you have high interest rates and now you have a frantic

frozen economy, especially at a hiring level. So one of the things that I have heard privately from so many people who work in the Fortune 500 is we have a de facto hiring freeze across the entire company. That's really devastating because it's April 24th, as you and I are recording this right now, which means two, three weeks from now, we have...

So many kids who are graduating from college and graduating from high school. Well, that's exactly when you enter the job market. I mean, this is basically akin to graduating in 2009. And so now they really are facing a frozen employment and or lower wages, you know, maybe less bonuses, which means that you're going to have less money.

less earning power, and you still face a very high cost of living in many of these different places. So that type of economic precarity, I think, is really starting to set in for a lot of the younger guys, in particular, who saw a lot of dissatisfaction with Biden and felt like they really, their concerns weren't being looked at. And I think in this particular case, they're beginning to see the exact same thing. Same with the stocks. I mean, we've talked

about this. It's funny to make fun of, it's funny to talk about, oh, crypto. What did Kamala say? She was like, crypto is a blackmail issue or something. But I do think it's undeniable that it is something that young people look at, or we got a cat tail there in our view. It's undeniable that

Younger guys in particular, if we look at the Robin Hood phenomenon and things like that, are paying attention, if not and or equity owners. And you've seen massive correction in the stock market, almost down by 15%, 16% from the all-time high in November after Trump was elected. So there is just no question that there has been both a shift in terms of, quote, the vibe, which we warned about at the time, so you can live and die by it.

But really, at a material level, you're seeing the reduction. People can see the writing on the wall and they're beginning to express their dissatisfaction. Yeah, I don't think there's any doubt about it. And I just think about the experience of millennials graduating into the Great Recession and the way that that that combined with the Iraq war shaped the politics of the millennial generation. Millennials are one of the most left wing generations in American history. Right.

And, you know, there I think Gen Z was really up for grabs. And I would say, you know, my sense of this generation is they're not enamored with either party. Let's be honest. Democrats have a lot of work to do if they're going to affirmatively win over young men, because it's one thing for young men to say, you know, this Trump thing doesn't really work out the way that I wanted to it to. It's another thing to say, like, OK, but this other party is offering something that's

That is superior and that, you know, is appealing to me and my life. And I think is going to is going to sorry, the cat almost fell, is going to actually improve my material circumstance. So, you know, this is far from a victory done deal for Democrats. But it just shows you, Sagar.

These groups are up for grabs. Yes. You know, people are not automata. I do there. Look, there are people who are highly polarized and they're voting for Trump. It doesn't matter what he does or voting for the Republicans or voting for the Democrats, no matter what come hell or high water. But I think one of the major failures of political scientists is

over the past, I don't know, since I've been following politics, has been to underestimate how much people genuinely can shift over, you know, one election cycle, two election cycles, a couple of presidential terms. It is remarkable. And so I think with...

With Latinos, they felt like, OK, I was doing better economically in the first Trump administration. Let's give this guy another shot. We'd seen the numbers creeping up. We'd seen this sort of realignment in general where non-college educated voters, because of cultural issues as well as the sense that Trump's the businessman and will do better economically, had been shifting along ideological lines. But none of that is set in stone. You know, all of it can can be unraveled.

And so for Democrats, the nightmare scenario was always that, OK, you're going to lose the young generation and you're going to lose if you continue to lose working class voters, non-college educated voters across demographic groups. And you really have this full realignment. You're done. You're a permanent minority party.

And so Trump has created an opportunity with the trade war in particular, where unlike the Great Recession, where sort of both parties had some blood on their hands in terms of creating that economic climate. And there was some bipartisan blame to go around, et cetera. With this, man, it's really clear cut.

If you're graduating high school, if you're graduating college into this climate, you know exactly where to lay the blame at this point. And, you know, we've also got we can put up some of these additional numbers from Pew Research that just shows the way that his numbers are declining on issues across the board. So even on his best issue, which is immigration, even there.

He is underwater on the question of make good decisions about immigration policy. And that's his strongest one. Then you've got, you know, negotiate favorable trade agreements, not doing well, handle public health emergency, God forbid, make good decisions about economic policy. He's 10 points underwater on that. I mean, you know, these are extraordinary things for Trump where economics has undergone

always been his strong suit and make good decisions about foreign policy. We'll talk more about that in the Ukraine block, but he's significantly underwater there as well. And then on just basic competence, we can put the next piece up on the screen. You can see the different demographic groups and their headline here is his approval rating is underwater among most groups.

Basically, only Republicans and Trump voters are the ones who remain largely positive. And this is where you can see, you know, that number with regard to Hispanics. You can see where black voters are. You can see where men are, where women are, where each age group is.

The age group that he continues to do the best with is basically like Gen Z, Gen X rather, I guess. But even there, he he is still underwater. So, you know, there's a lot. I mean, I wouldn't even say warning signs at this point. It's just really clear that the trade war in particular has been devastating for him. And even on the issues where he was previously strongest, which would certainly be immigration issues.

because of the way that he has, you know, the way he's gone about this and then just like undeniably

awful and cruel and also due process undermining direction that he has taken, even there, people are saying, you know what, this is not this is not what I want. Yes, exactly. And look, I mean, I think it really comes down to chaos and process. And this is where having people who are competent and smart matters, you know, in not doing things. And I mean, we're going to talk about this ice thing later on. It's like they just lie, like they just lie about stuff. They

make things that they have no confidence in the process. And then going forward, can any serious person who is defending any of this really come back and say, well, the government says? It's like that's a joke, right? And it's one where it tells you that many people who are casual observers and may even support these things in principle have very little confidence and faith in the credibility of what the president and the administration says.

from immigration and trade, which again are two issues where he usually does pretty well. I do want to highlight this before up on the screen. This was a huge recession indicator to me is quote, the competition to get into law school right now is brutal. It's the exact same thing that happened in 2009. I'm comparing it also to Georgetown University here in Washington, which has received literally more applications ever than in its entire existence.

just this year. Number of applications also to the other 200 law schools up by over 20%. The reason why is that a lot of students facing the job market that I just described say, well, maybe I'll just go into law school for three years and hope that things are better. I would definitely caution a lot of people to do that with the rise of AI and with $200,000 in debt that you might have on your sheet. But that was one where just looking at that, I was like, hmm, there's something going on here. And

It's very clear about the lack of faith that people have in the job market, especially for people who are credentialed, graduating from college. You also found this, this is amazing,

This is an old school BuzzFeed style article, which now has recession indicators that people are noticing. Are we, look, this is not 100% serious, but it is actually really funny. So they put together these 23 subtle ones. One was $5 blackjack tables at the Aria in Las Vegas. Plumbers showing up on time. Italian sandwich shops in prime locations struggling. More students in the master's and PhD programs in law school. Companies moving overseas.

real estate ghost towns, a lack of Botox, empty strip clubs, big lottery jackpots. That's got to be a big one, the empty strip clubs. Yeah, they made that whole movie about it, Hustlers, the J-Lo movie. It's actually a great movie. Oh, really? Yeah, yeah, about 2009. Big lottery jackpots, fixer cars on Facebook, used guitar surplus, home-cooked lunches, owner-sold cars, a lack of work injuries, availability at

the vet, big company cost reductions, advertising to people who have already bought something, short fast food lines, card collections on sale, parking at Costco, where there's plenty of parking on a Saturday, loan denials, declined payments, and finally the direct tariff effect, which is increased prices. Now, take all that for my own personal anecdote is talking to my barber, and he says people are waiting longer in between haircuts to come and

Usually they would do every three weeks. Now they're waiting five. And he was like, man, I can already tell you we're seeing a reduction across the board in our number of customers. So take for that for what you will. No, I mean, all these little signs like they do add up. Listen, I haven't been to Costco in a little while. If I show up at Costco on a Saturday and that parking lot is empty, I'm going to know some shit is going down. There is no doubt about it whatsoever. Even in a recession, I would not dare go to Costco on a Saturday.

That's the absolute worst time to go. But yeah, all of these are signs. People are picking up on it. The equities market, perhaps talking to people at work, dealing with their industry. If you're a trucker and you start to see the number of freight that's come in go down, you know what that means for you, which means what? You start to save cash if you have some, right?

rack up some credit card debt. We're seeing the credit card debt rate reach highs. Credit card companies are warning Wall Street, saying that we are seeing delinquency rise across the board. So there's a lot of things that you can see right there. All right, let's go ahead and get to you. Go ahead. Well, I was just going to say, well, number one, I'm at war with my cat over here. But number two,

I saw a survey that found a majority of Americans say that their personal financial situation is getting worse. And that is actually a higher. We didn't even have a majority saying that like during the Great Recession. So outside of the goofy, like, you know, the strip club or whatever, we have a lot of real indicators that.

people consumers are pulling back, that people are worried and that businesses are pulling back and that layoffs are beginning. And, you know, so if you think things look politically ugly for Trump right now, not that that's the most important thing, but they're going to get worse.

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At the same time, there's been some major movement with respect to Ukraine. President Trump and his team signaling that the next two weeks is a critical period for Russia and for Ukraine to come towards a peace deal that's been outlined by the administration. The vice president on the ground in India actually gave some outline with respect to the administration's position. Let's take a listen. We've issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians

and it's time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process. I think that we've put together a very fair proposal. We're going to see if the Europeans, the Russians and the Ukrainians are ultimately able to get this thing over the finish line. Again, I feel pretty optimistic about it. I think everybody has been negotiating in good faith, but it's now time, I think, to take, if not the final step, one of the final steps,

which is at a broad level the party saying we're going to stop the killing, we're going to freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today, and we're going to actually put in place the kind of long-term diplomatic settlement that hopefully will lead to long-term peace.

current lines of war in the war in Ukraine to remain the same under your proposal? No, I didn't say that. What I said is the current line somewhere close to them is where you're ultimately, I think, going to draw the new lines in the conflict. Now, of course, that means the Ukrainians and the Russians are both going to have to give up some of the territory they currently own. There's going to have to be some territorial swaps.

So that was ahead of what is now even further developments. Let's put this next part, please, up on the screen. C3. This was an initial reaction from the president after some statements by Zelensky. Now, specifically, what Zelensky and Trump here are sparring around is the U.S. potential de facto recognition of Crimea and specifically also the Ukrainian, uh,

basically acceptance of that. So quote, talks to end the war in Ukraine are stalled, leaving Trump frustrated and blaming Zelensky for failing to accept a peace plan. A meeting Wednesday in London that was billed as a make or break moment for the talks fizzled after the Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff just canceled their plans

to attend. This was after Zelensky pushed back against a proposal for a peace deal that Washington would de facto recognize the Russian sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has occupied since 2014. Trump criticized Zelensky for his comments, pointing out that Ukraine itself

was being asked to recognize Crimea as Russian. It is, quote, inflammatory statements like Zelensky's that make it so difficult to settle this war, Trump said in one of his Truth Social posts. I should note, Zelensky, interestingly enough, it hasn't aired yet, Crystal, but he did sit down with Ben Shapiro recently. The interview will air, I think, sometime today. So I'm actually curious to see what the guy has to say. He did admit that the Oval Office meeting did not go well for him.

and for Ukraine. But what this does show us is that Trump is in a very difficult position. You have Zelensky, Parwai, it couldn't be solved in 24 hours, right, before he took office. Zelensky here- Imagine that. He won't even say that he's going to accept Russian occupation of Crimea, which has been the status quo for 11 years now.

Russia also is not necessarily accepting a ceasefire. In fact, just this morning, let's put this please up on the screen, the Trump truth, quote, I am not happy with Russian strikes on Kiev. Not necessary. Very bad timing. Vladimir, stop. 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Let's get the peace deal done. In fact, you know, despite all of this peace deal talk, Russia actually greenlit airstrikes on the capital in Ukraine yesterday.

for the first time, apparently, in many months. I mean, what that does tell us is that the Russians both are not necessarily accepting the credibility of this so-called US peace deal come forward. The Ukrainians as well seem, in my opinion, very naively to believe that the Europeans will be able to prop them up for a continuing war. It's just not...

reality. I mean, over 60 or 70 percent of their military aid comes directly from the United States. European aid is like humanitarian and economic. That's nothing whenever it comes to actual guns and to weapons. So the two sides actually seem more irreconcilable than ever. And, you know, one of the things that I've really been thinking about, Crystal, is that because this is such a titanic foreign policy effort in and of itself, the administration cannot

put the due amount of attention that it needs to when the Secretary of State and Steve Wyckoff are also dealing with a ceasefire, potential ceasefire in Gaza, negotiations there, negotiating 90-odd trade deals across the world. And so with their lack of attention everywhere, it creates a vacuum through which there's not enough seriousness, there's also not enough attention, I would say, from US policymakers

around this, and in the absence of that, you're actually gonna have the worst of all worlds, which is an intransigent Ukraine and an intransigent Russia, which would actually mean more conflict and would potentially drive us even further into the brink. If the Russians feel that they can get away with something potentially really crazy with Trump's attention elsewhere, same with the Ukrainians,

may say screw it this is our very last effort you know here right now we're going to go all in and next who knows you know what kind of situation that would put us in so the chaos and the uncertainty within this even though look i think people who watch the show know i i think this peace deal is eminently reasonable for the ukrainians because they don't have another choice the other choice is to continue to fight and to die which they literally cannot do without u.s support or weapons it's not good for us i don't think it's particularly good for them

But the problem for us is it seems that we're not actually putting the amount of hard work and detail to be able to enforce or bring about something like this. And there's a massive vacuum of uncertainty. And within that, there's actually a lot of danger that we can see right now. No doubt about it. And we all know.

We've all seen the way that these conflicts can just sort of be put on the back burner and drag on indefinitely. And I think we're really in danger of that right now because increasingly that'll be the easiest option. And certainly for the weapons makers, that's the most profitable option. So there are plenty of interests.

that would be happy to see, you know, no peace deal come together and just sort of like continue the status quo in perpetuity. And, you know, there's there's political risks here for Trump as well, because while him attempting to pull together a peace deal is very popular, the idea of pushing Ukraine, whether we want to admit it or not, the idea of pushing Ukraine to give up territory is very unpopular.

So winding down these wars is always a very difficult political position, something that I think Trump himself has demonstrated some understanding of. And so that cuts against really pushing for a peace deal here as well. You know, the thing that is really just shows how far apart

the two parties are, is the resistance from Zelensky in Ukraine to even consider the acknowledgement of Crimea at this point. I mean, Russia had taken over Crimea even before this current war. And so if you aren't even willing to consider that or put that on the table, like what are you going to do about Donbass, let alone the other Russian conditions, which really may be above and beyond what the Ukrainians have,

Would be willing to accept things like, you know, we're not going to allow any sort of peacekeeping force within the country, whether it's NATO or whether it's the EU or anyone else. We're not going to accept that. Certainly NATO membership has to be off the table. I mean, I think that's just like an absolute given at this point, but it doesn't seem like either party wins.

is really interested in these sort of significant concessions that would need to be made. And Russia striking Kiev, I mean, that is, that sends as big of a signal as anything else of like, listen, we can keep going. We, you know, we're in, have the upper hand here and we don't particularly feel the need to bend to any of these terms or get anything less than

what would be ideal in our view. Right, and then that's the difficulty of this that you also pointed to. Trump, by negatively polarizing himself on everything, has probably made the Democrats who probably just learned about Ukraine after their Oval Office meeting more dug in than ever, which you're exactly right. I mean, look, America has this...

extremely naive belief that we can just be the great policemen of the world and we can just prevent all of this territorial acquisition in Ukraine, a country which we have no treaty obligation to, which doesn't matter to us literally at all, not even a democracy. I've heard, you know, everyone's heard my spiel now at this point.

It doesn't matter. The truth is, is that a peace deal would not likely be popular because, again, you have a lot of boomers who still have some Cold War-style mentality where they're like, oh, that's just completely unacceptable. Why they have such an emotional attachment to this conflict, I will never understand. But,

But the point is, is that what we are trying to do, it was already on shaky-ish ground. Now, obviously, Americans had mostly come around to military, you know, stopping military aid to Ukraine or were roughly in a place where they thought we had given too much. It's a different thing, though, to actually see actual de facto Russian occupation. And you have to be very sensitive in the way that you handle that.

And right now, we don't really see. The other thing that the administration has said is, "Oh, we're just gonna walk away from this." And it's like, well, what does that mean? Because if you were gonna walk away from these, quote, "peace deal," that would actually be good for Ukraine. In fact, because for them,

Already right now, the weapons continue to flow. When we, quote, walk away, what we would really be walking away from is diplomatic negotiation and pushing for the settlement with Russia. If we just walk away and the status quo maintains and Ukraine continues to get the weapon shipments every single month and the battle lines continue to go, and it's just a protracted and a long conflict. And then same for the Russians. If we walk away, they also get to continue their slow march forward. So I don't yet see...

true incentive for negotiation that's been put on either side. I mean, look, again, let's underscore it. The Ukrainians are delusional. If they can't even accept Crimea, Russian occupation of Crimea at a de facto level, not even an official level, what the hell else are we even doing here after over a million people have been killed? But if that's really where they are, democratically and

both democratically in terms of popularity and at a leadership level with Zelensky, then I don't even know what to say to them at this point. If they truly want to fight it out and believe it should be like a war of annihilation, then maybe that's a choice that they want to have. That's not something that I think we should accept and or push for. But that's where on the administration side, I just don't see the level of attention and detail that's actually happening here that could bring

any sort of wrap to this conflict, considering how much other BS that all top level negotiators are currently dealing with. They have to deal with Japan, with China, with, you know, with Israel, with now with Russia. It's like you can't, it's impossible, honestly, to be able to do this with the level of care and detail that you need. And that's what I'm worried about is the vacuum, because within that vacuum and the uncertainty, I just think it'll be a disaster.

Yeah, no, I that's a really, I think, excellent point that I hadn't really thought through is because they've basically, you know, gone to war with the entire world and started all sorts of conflagrations and are involved in all sorts of complex negotiations, including supposedly negotiating trade deals with like 90 countries around the world.

look, you just have finite resources, especially finite resources in terms of the type of top level talent you would need to resolve this situation. Because Trump's bluster about I'll solve it within 24 hours notwithstanding, like we always knew that was preposterous because the fact of the matter is it's a very difficult situation to untangle at this point. There are no good or ideal answers at this point. And, you know, that's always been the horror and the tragedy of,

of the Biden administration's approach and their desire to block peace deal, you know, at the beginning. But we are where we are at this point. And, you know, resolving this will be an incredibly difficult feat.

Trump rarely, you know, he now has recently started talking about Ukraine more, but often there were long stretches where he wasn't even talking about it, doesn't seem particularly focused on it. You know, the trade deal seems to be much more of his particular obsession. And so it's hard to see how we get more than just to continue to muddle through and maintain the status quo in the near future. Yeah, I would say that the most likely scenario,

when your lack of attention is there, is just continued weapons to Ukraine and continued Russia, right? That's actually easiest for everybody. The Ukrainians get to maintain their facade of fighting. They're just going to continue slowly dying and bleeding their country. We and our weapons manufacturers, what? Oh, it's nothing. By the way, where's Elon? Where's Dojon?

the Ukraine war and everything that we continue to fund there. And then for Russia, they don't care at all. You know, this is the backbone of their economy. Their entire population, basically, at this point, supports the war or, you know, the dissident factions and all that that people had such great hopes for hasn't materialized. Putin is stronger than ever. If anything, you know, a lack of negotiation, it works to his benefit. He can just keep rolling,

forward. They pushed the Ukrainians out of Russia after they did their little invasion. They've actually seized even more territory. I mean, you see, you know, broad collapse generally of what at least, you know, any Ukrainian offensive strength. And year after year, it's actually probably to the Russians' advantage to sign no peace deal.

They wouldn't love to keep doing that, but at the same time, I just don't see, again, the proper conditions and this so-called walk away, I just don't think that it's gonna work.

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