6/24/25: Trump Loses It On Israel After Ceasefire Violation, Colbert Vs Zohran Ahead Of NYC Primary
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We'll be right back.

But yeah, we want to just jump right in because things are moving so incredibly quickly this morning. Donald Trump coming out, guns blazing, threatening both Israel and Iran not to violate a ceasefire that he helped to broker yesterday. I'm going to play the full comments here so you can really get a full sense of what is going on. And then after that, I'll back up and we'll walk you through exactly how we got to this point. Go ahead and take a listen.

agreement and the ceasefire agreement. Do you believe that Iran is still committed to the peace? The President: Yeah, I do. They violated it, but Israel violated it, too. The Press: Are you questioning if Israel is a committed -- The President: Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I've never seen before. The biggest load that we've seen. I'm not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, "Okay, now you have 12 hours," you don't go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them. So I'm not happy with them.

I'm not happy with Iran either. But I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning because of one rocket that didn't land, that was shot, perhaps by mistake, that didn't land. I'm not happy about that. You know what? We have — we basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing. Do you understand that?

Iran will never rebuild its nuclear... From there? Absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished.

The B-2 pilots did their job. They did it better than anybody could even imagine. They hit late in the evening. It was dark with no moon, and they hit that target with every one of those things, and that place is gone. But when I see CNN all night long, they're trying to say, well, maybe it wasn't really as demolished as we thought. It was demolished. You take a look at the pinpricks.

And you see, that place is gone. And I will say, I think CNN ought to apologize to the pilots of the B-2s. I think that MSDNC ought to apologize. So there you have it, President saying he is very unhappy with Israel dropping a load of bombs. Also saying that he thinks these are two countries that have been fighting for so hard and so long, they don't know what the F they're doing. Dropping the F bomb here.

This comes on the heels of a whole lot. I'll just go ahead and put up the or read through the true social posts that have come out just this morning. Again, this is in the context, and I'll show you all of this in just a moment, of a ceasefire deal that the president announced yesterday evening. So first thing we got this morning is President Trump posted, Israel, do not drop those bombs. If you do, it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home now. Donald J. Trump, president of the United States,

Next, he posted, Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home while doing a friendly plane wave, he puts in quotes, to Iran. Nobody will be hurt. The ceasefire is in effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter. And then the latest one that we got, and by the way, we're recording this at 8.08 a.m. this morning. This is from about half an hour ago. Iran will never rebuild their nuclear facilities. And that was the other significant part, Sagar, of what

the president was insisting on there in his rant and screed against CNN and MSNBC, MSDNC as he was calling it, is the fact that insisting that the nuclear facilities that we bombed were completely obliterated. I think this being significant because he wants to be able to claim that something was accomplished.

with this incredibly dangerous and escalatory mission that he engaged in. - Yeah, look, I mean, I think even before we get to the macro, it's really just worth ruminating on the last 12 hours because originally we had the ceasefire. We can actually put that up on the screen. A1, please, just to show everybody. This is how things started out. Congratulations to everyone.

It's been fully agreed there will be a ceasefire. Then this is the confusing part. Officially, Iran will start the ceasefire, and upon the 12th hour, Israel will start the ceasefire. And upon the 24th hour, an official end to the 12-day war will be saluted by the world. Now, immediately after that, there was some confusion and some reporting that came out as to whether it was all even true. Put A2, please, up on the screen so you can see. It was like Trump, Israel, and Greece.

Israel and Iran agree to a ceasefire. Then Iran, we have not received any ceasefire proposal. Israel, we are declining to comment on any ceasefire. Iran says they have agreed to the U.S. proposed ceasefire, but they propose a different timeline than the one that was offered by Trump. 3.30 a.m. Jerusalem time.

time. Initially, then we see reports that Israel actually carries out its strongest strikes ever of the entire campaign all across the city of Tehran, something that Trump mentioned in his tirade saying who in the first hour of ceasefire goes in there and blows it up. We're like, oh, interesting. You know, we're starting to pay attention a little bit here to what these Israeli strikes actually are going to do. Then what happens

is that the Iranians fire missiles also after their so-called 4 a.m. deadline that their own foreign minister announces last night. Actually, a significant amount of missiles. Four civilians were killed inside of Israel and it was a significant amount of damage. Then...

This was roughly three hours before we're filming. The IDF announces that they are going to obliterate Tehran. They're going to strike back. The war cabinet approves. Itvar Ben-Gavir posts one of those things being like, you guys asked for it. We're coming for you. IDF jets are literally over the skies of Tehran. And then Trump walks out onto the South Lawn and that's where he gives his tirade. They don't know what the fuck they're doing. I'm very upset with Israel.

orders Israel by Truth Social to stop. And so that's where things stand as for right now. It has been like an absolutely insane 24-hour period. But yeah, let's then take a step back and actually look analytically at everything. This is the fakest end of a conflict and beginning of a conflict

Of all time. So Israel, we haven't even gotten to the fact that Iran launched 14 missiles at a U.S. air base in Qatar. Our largest air base in the region. Largest air base in the region. Huge logistics hub. I talked a lot about it yesterday. Actually, can we put some of the VO of that, please? A7 guys. Can we go ahead and show it to everybody here?

You've got some U.S. service members that are cheering on the Patriot batteries. I mean, it's pretty surreal. As people know, I went to high school in Qatar, so it was pretty insane. Literally, I've been to that airbase. I went to high school there. I knew some people who still live in the country. It's pretty wild. The airspace was closed. Qatar Airways, one of the largest carriers in the world, turning planes around in the middle of the sky.

It was a very dangerous situation. So that is happening. Immediately afterwards, the Iranians, basically the news comes out that they coordinated their strike with Qatar and gave a heads up to the United States. It was a very, very calibrated response. It was the off ramp. Trump takes the off ramp and he's like, thank you, Iran, for giving us a heads up about the strike. There's been no damage here at the airbase. No Americans were killed. Now it's time for world peace. So Iran executes a fake attack on America.

America does basically a fake claim. We get to pretend that Iran's nuclear program is gone. This is all a fugazi, let's all be honest. And then Israel gets to, I guess, pretend that this was really about the nuclear program and not about regime change this entire time. So it's just, it's a fake, it's fake literally all around. Everyone is plagiarizing

pretending at every level. I mean, the truth is, is that the Iranian nuclear program and the uranium stockpile remains intact, despite whatever they want to claim. I saw the vice president on Fox News, it's been buried and actually it's no longer a problem. There's literally not a scrap of evidence to back that up. In fact, all arms control people are saying, actually, we know exactly where it is and they do have still some secret facilities. They're roughly three to five years away, likely from being able to create a nuclear bomb if they wanted to.

In fact, the strategic logic of doing so probably has never existed more. Oh, absolutely. On the Israeli side, I mean, it's pretty obvious that from day one, none of this was really about the nuclear weapons program because they're blowing up half of the regime and executing all of these people. Okay. And then again, on the Iranian side, I mean, look, we can't, you know, it's like...

It's been embarrassing for them as well. I mean, they had their entire command and control basically infiltrated by Mossad. Yes, they were able to establish some credible ballistic missile deterrent, but they had their whole air defense systems that were wiped out. And the reason they took their off-ramp is because at the end of the day, they were getting pounded and they were at serious risk. I think the Iranians, I mean, they weren't the ones on the on-ramp to start with.

So like for them to take the off ramp, it was because they didn't want this war to begin with. That's also the strategic logic of this, where, you know, on the one hand, Iran is a is a regime of Nazis who chant death to America. But then on the other, they are a restrained and rational party giving, you know, heads up to the United States of America as Israel and taking the first chance at an off ramp and a ceasefire. So which one is it? Can we hold on that?

point because I want people to really think about this. I want you to think about the way that the Iranians have been portrayed in mass American media, certainly my entire life, as this Nazi-esque belligerent regime that the moment they got a nuke was going to come and blow up New York City. Right. That's how we're supposed to understand them. But not only in this conflict. Okay.

Let's be really clear. The Iranians are the ones that de-escalated and created the possibility of de-escalation because our actions of dropping a dozen bunker buster bombs on their nuclear facilities, our actions were incredibly inflammatory and escalatory. Their reaction to that was to tell us, hey, listen,

We got to do something in response to this. But here's where it's going to be. Here's when it's going to be. So we can just do a performative strike that is not going to actually cause any damage, which it didn't, and certainly no casualties, which it also didn't, so that we have a chance at...

you know, taking the tensions down. Incredibly, look, I mean, I'm not sure it was the right decision. In fact, I think if there's any critique strategically, just tactically, of the Iranian government, it's actually that they've been too weak in response to the provocations, especially the provocations from Israel.

Also, the provocations from Trump in his first term when he assassinated Qasem Soleimani, what he learned from that is there's no price to be paid for messing with them. And so that's, if anything, tactically, that would be the critique of them, and yet we're supposed to believe that they are hellbent on getting a nuclear weapon and that the second

they do, they're going to drop it on Kansas or Missouri or New York City or whatever. This is preposterous. It's total and complete nonsense. The people who have been behaving like the biggest maniacs, psychopaths, and completely rogue regime that do actually have a secret nuclear program are the Israelis. They are the provocateurs here. Now, listen, Trump does not get off the hook.

He decided that he wanted to engage with Israel in this incredibly stupid, foolish, dangerous game. And now he's pretending, to your point about the fakery, he's pretending, oh, we obliterated their nuclear program.

Okay. Look, if that's what you need to pretend, sure. But the reality is, those of us who are living in the real world, what have we actually gained? What we've actually gained is we've provided more incentive for the Iranians to pursue a nuclear weapon. We have allowed Israel to, you know, you give those people an inch, they take a mile. If you think this is it and it's over and it's done, you think

Bibi Netanyahu is about to wake up today and say, you know, regime change in Iran. I don't really need that. I'm good. You know, now that they dropped their bunker busters and the nuclear program is not at all decimated, I'm good. I can just sit back and it'll be fine. No, he and his allies, of which he has many in this town, as Lord knows we've seen, and the media,

He and his allies will keep pushing, keep pushing. There will be another, oh, Iran violated the ceasefire. Now we have to bomb this. This will not be the last time because they roll out this playbook every single time. I don't know if there's ever been a ceasefire agreement that Israel has agreed to that they haven't violated. Happened in Lebanon, exactly. And look, I mean, this is again why this whole MAGA cope is driving me crazy because what you're watching here is not some grand master plan. It is utterly stupid.

schizophrenic. And we know this. I even know it. I've spent the last two weeks of my life on the phone. And it's ironic because they're like, oh, we trusted the plan all along. And I'm like, do you want to know who didn't trust the plan? A massive number of people with top secret security clearance working in national security in this White House situation room or around it, in the Pentagon, in the State Department, in the intelligence community who thought that we were this close to the brink of war because of the

precious nature of the way Trump has done this. Remember, let's just look again at the public statements just from the, and again, there's no, actually, there's really no plan behind this. Initially, America has nothing to do with the strike because it's a quote, yellow light. Then Trump gets excited and then we're going all in. We're actually okay with all of it. And then America is going to come in. We give them a two week pause, but actually bomb them after two days. We demand unconditional surrender. We're

And we sign a ceasefire within 48 hours of after bombing them. It's like by your own admission, literally nothing of what you said makes any sense. The diplomacy was used as a ruse. And then you demand – and then you're saying we're going to have regime change. So what happened to unconditional surrender? Which is it? And this is exactly the problem is that the Israelis have a major strategic opening here if they need it. Trump is angry because he didn't get his PR win initially.

Now they get to go right back to work on him, just like they did with the negotiations. Remember, if this does not end today, Trump wants it to end today. But what will happen? Today, Trump wants it to end today. Exactly. Trump wants it to end today. He's like, we will now have peace for all time. He literally said that. I'm not joking.

I'm like, okay. Well, what you – I've already watched and I follow all of these people religiously. Mark Dubowitz, Jason Brodsky, all these others from the United Against Nuclear Iran, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, all of the like actual neocon operatives here in Washington whose job is to lobby against deals. All of them are like, listen, look, Trump ceased fire. It's a –

historic achievement. However, as long as the Islamic regime remains in place, Israel is no longer safe. Or now we have to get back to the negotiating table. And when we get back to that negotiating table, we cannot let the Iranians put in any poison pills. They are laying the ground there.

for more violations of potential ceasefire, future Israeli action, more pushing the United States. And look at the vector now that they have on Donald Trump. All they have to do is to convince him that he's been humiliated by Iran or something like that. And of course, he could change his mind immediately. Mark Levin is immediately on his radio show saying that doing a ceasefire with Nazis is terrible strategy, hard against Donald Trump. I'm watching the same thing.

Half of these like neocon agitating accounts, they're furious with Trump actually for restraining Israel because Iran broke the ceasefire. Look, I don't even know who broke the ceasefire because I don't know when the damn ceasefire even started. I don't think you read that tweet and you tell me if you can decipher what it is. And by the way, it's not just me. The Israelis and the Iranians are confused as well. So, look, we're still in a bad situation. This is very, very mission accomplished situation.

to me. He wanted it to be the 12-day war. And you can see it in his television brain. This is PR, but this is real life. And by the way, even if it was such a grand strategic success, did a single thing get accomplished that couldn't have been accomplished with Steve Witkoff? I just don't believe it, right? Oh, quite the contrary. No, it set us back. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. The strategic logic of going for a bomb has literally never made, in fact,

the neocon logic may actually be more correct today, that the Iranian incentive would be to string along the West to agree to some half-assed deal or whatever and sprint to a bomb. I'm telling you that's what I would do. Now, look, the Iranians are weak. They've been humiliated. But they still remain to fight another day. Again, the logic of shelter in place,

bunker down, build as many ballistic missiles and sprint to a nuke has literally never made more sense. Their country was almost destroyed. Like they got their air defenses gone. They got their nuclear facilities bombed. They, all their attempts at diplomacy were failure. So they'll take the out where they can. But,

I mean, you know, if you are one of those negotiation peddlers inside the Iranian regime, what legitimacy do you have now with the security establishment? Again, half-stressed on some strategic empathy. So they're not suicidal, but also they live to fight another day. And in a certain sense, like what has happened to them is so humiliating now on the world stage that I don't know if they really have a choice to go otherwise. And I'm not even really sure what assurances we can offer them to say that this won't ever happen again. Yeah.

Considering the last 10 years of diplomacy, what are they going to do? There's zero assurance we could offer them. The best AI assistant isn't one that knows the whole world. It's one that knows your world. A custom assistant built on Watson X with IBM's Granite models can leverage your trusted data, be easily trained on your workflows, and integrate with your apps. It can be tuned to do just what you need because the more AI knows about your world, the more it can help you do. Learn more at ibm.com slash productivity.

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The minute that they give up their nuclear, you know, what they have right now is the 60% highly enriched uranium, which we've heard endlessly about. They have that as a bargaining chip. They have that as something they can get rid of in order to get some sort of a deal on sanctions relief and whatever.

They give that up. They are just sitting ducks, you know, that and if they give up even the pretense of, you know, pursuing some sort of nuclear weapon, which, again, they weren't, according to our intelligence, according to the IAEA, they were not pursuing a nuclear weapon. They were using the 60 percent enriched uranium as a bargaining chip in the negotiations. But, yeah, the minute you give all of that up, you're sitting duck and you can't trust us. Are you kidding me? Trust us.

We use this diplomacy as a ruse to allow the Israelis the element of surprise, you know, extent they were able to achieve that. Then we used a second diplomatic effort as a recess and even to talk about the fact we actually used a diplomatic ruse to assassinate Qasem Soleimani to begin with.

you can't trust us. We're at their floating assassination of your leader of the Ayatollah. And, you know, partner with these psychos who will do it at moments known as the second they get a chance. So, I mean, you'd have to be a fool to trust us in those negotiations, trust any sort of assurances that we're going to let you live and let your country be. There's no way. So that's where we are. I mean, you've you.

I think genuinely had a shot with the Witkoff negotiations back in the beginning when Witkoff and Trump's position seemed to be that there was some sort of a deal that could be struck with regard to civilian nuclear usage, some sort of regional consortium, that there was some creative solution that could be worked out. I think you genuinely had a shot at a deal. The minute it was 0% enriched uranium, then that was a poison pill meant to kill those negotiations. And then when

then when we use the final round as a ruse, at least that's the public portrayal as a ruse in order to allow the Israelis to attack, then you have probably completely closed the possibility of working this out through diplomatic means, which listen, there are no guarantees in life would that have completely guaranteed that they could never and would never pursue a nuclear weapon.

No, there's no guarantees of life. Was that a much better course that was much more likely to result in the outcome that you claim to want to achieve? Yes. But

But that's the thing, guys. This was never, for the people who are pushing this policy, this is never about the nuclear weapons program. They want the Iranian state to collapse. They want it to be a failed state. They would be happy to see some disastrous civil war, some disastrous and deadly civil war that is spiraling out of control that would create a massive refugee crisis. That's what the Israelis and their allies and the neocons want to see. So

So that there is no challenge to complete and total Israeli hegemony in the region. That is the goal. That has always been the goal. The Israelis are not shy about saying, ultimately, that that is the goal. And that's why all these people, you know, the Mark Levins of the world and whoever, are just utterly outraged that there's even a possibility that this is the off-ramp that we take. But, you know, listen, everyone should be very skeptical that it ends here.

Even if it ends here, this has been disastrous, let's be clear. But you should also be skeptical that it actually ends here because Sagar's right. You were right in the beginning when you said, listen, the people who want diplomacy, they have to win the battle every single day.

The psychos only have to win it once. They only have to get, you know, a Fox News segment that convinces Trump one time and suddenly you're off to the races again. The Israelis, because they are so hell-bent, Netanyahu in particular, but the Israelis in general, so hell-bent on this outcome of regime collapse,

They are not going to stop trying to pull us in and make sure that they get their fondest wish. That is their goal. They are completely and utterly committed to it. And unless you have someone on the other side in Trump who is who is completely and utterly committed to an alternative outcome, which would be actual peace and diplomacy, they are going to be able to ultimately get their way.

Because no ideology is not a match for an ideological goal that you are dead set on effectuating. So I think we continue to be in an incredibly dangerous and unstable place, as is seen this morning. And also, I mean, the last thing I'll say here is like, you know, Trump is making a big show this morning. We also know that a bunch of the things he said in the past were completely and totally fake.

So, yeah, and we're meant as a show. So you also can't put that off the table, that this is another show. We just genuinely don't know. It seems like he's genuinely frustrated with the Israelis. That would be my guess. But you can't put that possibility off the table. All of it shifts so quickly.

I don't think that there's – in fact, I know that there's not a level of intention behind it because all of it really is just about like how he feels in this moment. It's about the show. He loves Trump the peacemaker. As you can all see, he's desperate to win the Nobel Peace Prize because Barack Obama – I mean, you know, falsely got one in 2009. But –

the point remains like that's what he wants at this moment, but he also wanted to appear tough and strong and got dragged basic, or at least went along with it based upon with Fox news. Of course the man has agency, but yeah, I mean, there's the incredible amount of like trust the plan and all of this. It's,

so utterly preposterous. There was no plan. It was moving about from day to day. We came to the brink of war like this. The only reason, by the way, that there was an off-ramp was because of restraint from the Iranian side. You know, somebody riddle me that in terms of what that means. Basically, everyone, reiterate again, is pretending that

all of its major goals were accomplished. The Iranians are lying, the Americans are lying, and the Israelis are lying. Now, I guess that's far preferable to war breaking out. I'm happy. And listen, I would love to see an actual diplomatic solution that actually happens.

with Steve Witkoff and some future negotiation between Israel, Iran, and the United States. But what it would require is the Donald Trump of today basically coming hard against the Israelis. And we have not- And doing that every day. I was going to say, and the problem with that is we've seen it once or twice. Oh, you can't attack Iran. Oh, I'm frustrated with you. You're going to take the ceasefire in Gaza. But what's usually the story?

The ceasefire in Gaza happens, and then what? Collapses 60 days later. And now they're rolling Gaza. I mean, it's probably never been worse than it is today. And then what happened again? Oh, you can't attack Iran in April. 61 days later, boom, they attack Iran. So we have a proven track record here. Now, hopefully he learns from that.

Again, I am very, very hopeful. But I think that the pro-war side is riding so high right now from being able to even just accomplish this. And they're going to claim a lot of credibility. And, you know, Trump –

is a person who really can see like where his media, and of course the media is playing a role. CNN's yesterday talking about how this is one of the greatest achievements of Donald Trump's entire presence, one of the greatest legacies, you know, in the Middle East, right? Like he, he, he's a showman. He can see and eats all of this stuff up. So yeah, for me, very mission accomplished vibe. Like the idea of this is really going to end on day 13. I just think it's preposterous. And I actually think he's just opened up like a,

Pandora's box. And this problem will now bedevil him for four years. It will just constantly rear its ugly head. Can you really force the Israelis to accept a deal? Maybe. I mean, honestly, if any president could, he could do it. But then he would have to want to do it. And I just don't know if that's going to happen. Of course he could do it. Of course. Any American president can say to the Israelis at any time, like, that's it. Your aid is pulled. You're not getting these weapons anymore.

You're done. If it was not already clear to you how dependent on us they are in order to do anything, then, I mean, I think this whole provocation and war that the Israelis launched should have proved that to you because they came in knowing that they could not come close to achieving their goals without getting us to come in. Mm-hmm.

They were running low on interceptors. I mean, I actually think that's another important aspect of like, okay, if you ask, well, why did they agree to this at this point? I think, yes, the Iranians, it doesn't surprise me they were looking for an off-ramp because, as I said before, they were not looking for an on-ramp to begin with. Mm-hmm.

For the Israelis, I think they likely agreed to it because they were having this issue with interceptors running low. We don't know how much damage they were taking, but they took some significant amount of damage in Tel Aviv and Haifa and other places. And so I think they accepted this as a way to effectively regroup.

and have this sort of planned out as like a phased war approach. And so that's likely why they were willing to say, okay, fine, we will do a ceasefire. Do you think they mean we're now gonna have permanent peace? You think that? No, of course not.

Because the other piece of this, and it does get lost sometimes, it's really important to highlight, is not only do you have, you know, this is a multi-decade goal of Netanyahu and other Israeli governments, huge mass Israeli public support for it as well.

But this also, what are we not having as much time to talk about when we are endlessly having to cover whether we are in this war or not in this war and what bombs were dropping and what it accomplished, whatever. It makes it very difficult to really focus on what is happening in Gaza. And what is happening in Gaza is heartbreaking.

horrific. I mean, it really may be some of the worst things we have ever seen. The entire population crowded into a tiny space, rampant, you know, disease and waste and horror. And then you have these near daily, if not daily aid massacres that are just ongoing. I mean, this is just what's happening in Gaza right now. And so Iran is also provides cover for Netanyahu to be able to finish his, um,

ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza and in the West Bank as well. That is another big piece of this picture that we can't miss out on, which is something that Professor Mearsheimer highlighted yesterday as well, that that's a really important piece of understanding their motivations and what is going on here. So

That motivation is not going to go away. The longtime desire to destroy Iran and make it so it cannot possibly be anything approaching a competitor to Israel in the region, that is gone. And let me just say, you know, for the neocons out there who say, you know, good, let's let that happen and let's make Iran a failed state or install the shah or whatever fairytale fantasy outcome they have in mind.

You think it stops there? I mean, next then they'll say, well, what about Pakistan? Pakistan could be a challenge to us. Or maybe it's what about Turkey? Turkey could be a challenge to us. Like, you cannot bomb your way to safety and security in the region.

Israel is making themselves the most hated country in the world right now. That is not a way to make you and your people and your security. That is not a way to create safety for your own people. So this logic never stops. Even if they get their disastrous war, you know, that ends in complete chaos and misery in Iran, even then the logic doesn't stop. So that's where we are. Any other thoughts on this saga before we move on? Because we do have some other things we want to cover, but...

I think it's very, very, as we record this this morning, it is very uncertain what is ultimately going to unfold and where we're going. Now the prime minister's office just came out and be like, all the wars goals have been accomplished from the Israelis, which again, you know, it's ridiculous. My last closing thought is, I guess it turns out Trump can order Netanyahu in the IDF, right? Interesting. That's actually, that's, so that's a pretty key point. So,

If the president can indeed order the Israeli prime minister and the IDF to do whatever he wants to do, you should take note of that because we were told what? Israel is an independent country. They're going on their own. He couldn't stop them. What's he going to do? Tell them no? He just did. Their planes literally turned around in the sky. Yes, they still dropped a bomb on Tehran, but apparently it was like,

a radar installation and it didn't kill anybody, at least according to the initial reports right now. And they were actually going in to basically raise the place to the ground in response to these ballistic missiles. So I think that's a very interesting lesson, isn't it? Because we were told repeatedly that that's not possible. It's definitely possible,

if it's something that you want to do. And oh, by the way, Trump now tells reporters aboard Air Force One, he's not looking for regime change as long as a tentative ceasefire takes hold. So things are changing. Yeah, it's like things can change

Every single day. It would be funny, except hundreds of people are actually dead, you know, as a result of this. Innocent civilians in Tehran and in Tel Aviv and all across of Israel. And who knows where things will go in terms of this nuclear program. And you've made it much more likely that Israel, I mean that Iran or Israel already has large nuclear weapons. Hundreds of nuclear weapons. Yeah. At least 90 that we know of for sure. I thought it was 200. Yeah.

Could be. I think Colin Powell said 200. Really? He was in WikiLeaks. I'm pretty sure. I'd have to go back. It's been a while since I looked at it. They have a lot. Yeah. Iran has zero. And now Iran has much more motivation to pursue one. So great. And by the way, around the world, other countries are watching this going. Yeah, I really need to get a nuke. Maybe I need a nuke so these people can't fuck with me because that seems to be the only thing that will deter us and the Israelis from coming in and trying to destroy your entire country. There we go.

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All right. It is primary day in the New York City mayoral race. As a reminder, Griffin and Ryan will be in New York City tonight at the Zoran Mamdani election night watch party. So hopefully we're going to be able to grab Zoran. We've got some other people that we're going to be able to talk to that I think you're going to be excited about. Emily and I are going to be here at home sort of

heading that live stream or whatever, being playing quarterback on that live stream so that they can go and grab people. And we're also going to cover whatever news comes out today because God knows by tonight what state of the world we're going to be in. So that's going to kick off at 8.30. Thank you so much to the premium subscribers who made this possible, you know, to do an extra show today. Obviously it cost $1,000

to be able to travel and get the right equipment and get the setup and all of that sort of stuff. So really, really appreciate you guys. If you all can support us at breaking points.com, that's where you can also become a premium subscriber and get all the goodies that that entails. So all of that being said, um,

Zoran Mamdani and Brad Lander, who have cross-endorsed each other. Lander is another local elected official whose progressive has a close alliance with AOC. So they cross-endorsed each other. It's also significant because Lander is the highest Jewish elected official in the city. And given the fact that a court

strategy of the Cuomo campaign has been to smear Zoran as an anti-Semite, that cross endorsement and, you know, plan to say like, okay, my supporters, you need to rank Zoran and Zoran supporters need to rank Brad Lander. That has been, I think, very significant, very important to his campaign. So the two of them went on Colbert last night together. And lo and behold, Zoran faced questions from Stephen Colbert,

exactly along these lines of basically, are you an anti-Semite or not? Let's go ahead and take a listen to how he responded. Mr. Mamdani, same question. Does the state of Israel have the right to exist? Yes, like all nations, I believe it has a right to exist and a responsibility also to uphold international law. Okay, well, let's talk about the elephant in the room, is that there are many people in New York, even people who would support your candidacy otherwise, who don't want to support you because of...

The Jewish community's fear of the true and rising antisemitism, not only around the world, but in this country and shamefully in New York, which has the largest Jewish population of any city other than Tel Aviv in the whole world. And they are worried. They're very upset by some of the things that you've said in the past. And they are afraid that your mayorship would actually lead to increased antisemitism, that they believe that that would be more dangerous for them. What do you say to those New Yorkers who are afraid that you wouldn't be their mayor, that you wouldn't protect them?

You know, I know where that fear is coming from. It's a fear that is based upon the horrific attacks we've seen in Washington, D.C., in Boulder, Colorado. All the way from Jews will not replace us to today. And it's a fear that I hear also from New Yorkers themselves. You know, just a few days after the horrific war crime of October 7th, a friend of mine told me about how he went to his synagogue for Shabbat services and he heard the door open behind him and a tremor went up his spine as he turned around not knowing who was there and what they meant for him.

I spoke to a Jewish man in Williamsburg just months ago who told me that the door he left unlocked for decades is now one that he locks. And ultimately, this is because we're seeing a crisis of anti-Semitism. And that's why, at the heart of my proposal for a Department of Community Safety, is a commitment to increase funding for anti-hate crime programming by 800%. Because...

To your point, anti-Semitism is not simply something that we should talk about. It's something that we have to tackle. We have to make clear there's no room for it in this city, in this country, in this world. And no justifications for violence of any kind? No, there is no room for violence. I'm a proud Jewish New Yorker. Raising two Jewish kids here is the joy of my life. I'm the highest ranking Jewish elected official in New York City government. I'm nervous about rising anti-Semitism. And also, I believe in the humanity and the human rights of Palestinians. And I know that it is possible...

I support that vision of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, but I hate what the Netanyahu government is doing in Gaza. And I've been saying that a long time. And look, no mayor is going to be responsible for what happens in the Middle East, but there is something quite remarkable about a Jewish New Yorker and a Muslim New Yorker coming together to say, here's how we protect all New Yorkers. Jews...

Jewish New Yorkers and Muslim New Yorkers are not going to be divided from each other. We build a city where you have affordable housing and good schools and safe neighborhoods for everyone. So, Sagar, I'm interested for your reaction. I mean, it's just preposterous to me that Israel and the smear of Zoran as an anti-Semite has become so central in this campaign. I almost can't blame, though, Colbert for asking him about it because—

Cuomo has put it front and center. And to be honest, I thought that answer from Zoran was fantastic.

I mean, classic, like first he connects on an emotional level with these personal stories. And then he's like, and that's why here's my policy. And you're sitting there next to Brad Lander, who then comes in after Zoran speaks and is like, you know, and defends him. And in a way that I think also was, you know, was very powerful. So I actually think that moment probably, listen, I mean, the cake is probably baked at this point anyway. But I actually think that moment ends up serving him because he handled it so well. You hear the audience with him. You've got Britt.

Brad Lander there to also sort of validate what he's saying. And so to me, it was actually a positive opportunity that he handled quite well here going into Election Day. Yeah, I don't disagree. I guess for me, it's just so tiresome that the New York City—look, I don't live in New York. I'm not a New Yorker. New Yorkers, you do what you want. But my point is, this is like, look, the last thing that I honestly care about—

from the mayor's point of view is their views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. You know, I've lived here and I actually have no idea what my own personal mayor's views are on various foreign conflicts and I don't really care. For me, it's about crosswalks, trash collection, property

taxes you didn't vote on which foreign country they're going to visit i could care less i really you know i mean we i live here and i used to live here in washington dc the nation's capital allegedly supposedly somebody with a very powerful mayor especially with home rule and all that i never once was like hey mayor bowser what are your views on ghana even though she's spending plenty of time on those foreign trips you promised you will go to israel when how many

I was like, can you do something about crime and trash collection is really annoying and the homeless problem is really out of control and there's too many drug addicts that are around the city. That's literally it. That's all I care about. So just the fact that everybody and all of us are supposed to care so much

I guess, you know, in a certain sense, I understand that this whole talking point about, oh, New York is the largest Jewish population. But again, you know, we're conflating this idea that the Jews of New York, how the state of Israel is like directly, you know, and their views on that topic comports to the policy of their daily life in wherever they, in Brooklyn, wherever they happen to live. So it's just preposterous. It also erases the fact

that Zoran actually has a lot of Jewish support. I mean, Brad Lander is one very high-profile example of this coalition that they have formed together. And this is also something that's interesting about ranked choice voting is it allows the possibility of these sort of cross-endorsements. Michael Blake and Zoran have also cross-endorsed. So that's one thing that, you know, creates interesting possibilities in ranked choice voting. You know, something else that Brad Lander said is he was like—

He was like, listen, I don't think that your views on Israel should necessarily be central to New York City mayoral race. However, look, there is something powerful about

This city having this alliance between a prominent Jewish official and a prominent Muslim official, that is actually a really positive and a really beautiful thing, which I thought, again, was a good response to the question. But it is crazy the way that they've made this central and tried to persuade people that he is –

hates Jews and it's going to be bad for Jewish people. I mean, some of the deranged things that I've seen out there are truly, truly wild. But in reality, there is no official that has, Zoran actually gets second highest Jewish support in the entire race. So what is anti-Semitic

is to expect that every single Jewish voter is going to approach these questions in the same way and have the same views. What is anti-Semitic is to force every Jewish person to ally with the state that is currently committing a genocide and act like that represents every Jew in the city of New York or around the world. So...

In any case, that has been very central. In terms of where the polls are, there's been a mixed bag, but we did get one poll here, you know, going right into election day that we mentioned yesterday from Emerson. We can put this up on the screen. This is B2 that has Zoran winning. So it has him. This is after you do all the rank choice and the this and the that and whatever. And at the

end in the final round, it has Zoran at 52% and Cuomo at 48%. Let's put the demographic split up here on the screen because this is also very interesting. You have

Zoran winning overall and surging, by the way, the way he has come from behind has been extraordinary. He wins significantly among white voters. Cuomo's strongest base of support is among black voters. Cuomo wins Hispanic voters 60-40 and Zoran romps among Asian voters 79-21. Now, this is interesting. Zoran does better with

with men than with women. Cuomo narrowly wins women. Zoran wins a little bit by a larger margin among men. Zoran does very well among college-educated. Cuomo's base is among non-college-educated. The

generational divide here is also extraordinary. You have people under the age of 50, Zoran wins 67 to 33, Cuomo wins 50 to 59, and you've got, you know, 60 plus also very much in the Cuomo camp. Actually, apparently Cuomo's strongest age demographic is actually 50 to 59, which is kind of interesting. So in any case, you've got this sort of like young,

college-educated, white and Asian bro-dominated coalition for Zoran. And then for Cuomo, you have his base as sort of like older black voters. And as we've been looking at the early voting numbers, so far, they do look to be favorite, like they look to be much more energy behind Zoran.

The areas of the city, in particular, you know, areas of Brooklyn where he is absolutely the strongest, have been showing up in droves. Young people have been showing up in a way that, you know, is highly unusual, if not unprecedented, for early voting. And one other thing that people are pointing to, Sagar, is the heat in the city today is unbelievable. Griffin was just texting us. It's supposed to be like 114 degrees.

In the Bronx, the Bronx and Staten Island being the two boroughs that are strongest for Cuomo. So, you know, given that his base...

Zoran is almost certainly ahead in the early vote, which is pretty impressive. He has a massive number of volunteers. Cuomo really has to depend on strong Election Day turnout. And his base is more elderly. That's why the heat can potentially come into play. But listen, that's one poll. Most of the polls have shown Cuomo winning. Some of them have shown him winning by, you know, as much as 10 points.

So this is really, it's anybody's game. It could truly go either way at this point. Yeah, I mean, and you know, what's fascinating to me is for Cuomo is the fact that it's even this close is honestly humiliating. And actually, one of his former advisors did a very good job of summing it up. Let's put B3, please, up on the screen. Again, I reiterate, this is a guy who used to work for Andrew Cuomo. A grim and joyless campaign as befits a battle for a prize never wanted.

One long viewed with disdain and contempt as a trifle that only lesser men would debase themselves to seek. Victory, if it comes at all, will be bandaged with tinny fanfare, strident gloat, to muffle the voice at the center that won't stop whispering, I'm...

Brutal. Man. I mean, that is savage. This is Howard Glazer. Cuomo triggered an existential crisis for this dude. Hey, listen, honestly, it's poetic. That's well written. I could never come up with something like that just off the top of my head. But it does demonstrate, you know, the real problems that they have. I will say a couple of things for Zoran. First of all, obviously he's run a decent campaign.

I mean, he's run an excellent campaign. He's run a good campaign. No denying that. He's got a lot of excitement, a lot of lower propensity voters, used social media, podcasting, et cetera, to really get his message out there. Got a lot of progressives to endorse him. So there's that. But second—

It's equally a tale of the failure of the New York Democratic establishment because the New York Democratic establishment correctly kicked Andrew Cuomo out of office over MeToo. But really what they should have kicked him out for was his handling of COVID. It was a disaster. This guy has blood on his hands of elderly people because of his policies. And then lied about it. And then lied about it, right. And all of this is confirmed, I mean, by his own government basically.

at the time. And yet they still allowed him to like traipse on in and to try and to seize it based on his own name recognition alone. So there's those two, it's really a Hillary dynamic, to be honest, like a deeply terrible candidate who comes in here and is just like, I'm the king or the queen. I deserve this. It's my time because of who I am and my last name. And then you have a

upstart campaign. I also think Zoran has a lot of political benefit or a lot of political wins at his back. Cuomo is out here supporting the Iran strike. Like, Cuomo's out here running the whole anti-Semite, you know, thing against Zoran. Zoran is the guy who's got, you know, the anti-Trump energy really at his back at a very critical time when the Democratic base is very, very fired up. So, look, it's a classic insurgent versus, you know, you just ossified,

story if he does win. And even if he does come close, again, it's embarrassing. It's deeply embarrassing for Andrew Cuomo. Yeah, so to that point about the different campaigns that they have run, Zoran concluded his campaign walking the length of the island of Manhattan, recording these videos with supporters,

I read an account from a journalist who walked with him that entire length and was sort of expecting that in northern Manhattan, you know, these are more, and I used to live in this area, there's more like working class areas. There's a lot of rent stabilized apartments, very diverse, and particularly walking through areas that are majority Dominican, Spanish language speakers, etc. And this reporter was like, you know, I kind of expected he wouldn't get as much hype there because that's not my impression of what his base was.

And he was like, people were flooding him, mobbing him everywhere. He was a celebrity everywhere he went throughout the entire city. And so let's go ahead and take a look at a little bit of the video and the vibe from that walk down the length of the island of Manhattan. This is before guys go and play this. We have just begun our walk through the entirety of Manhattan. We're at Inwood Hill Park at the tip top. We're outside because New Yorkers deserve a man that they can see.

They can hear? They can even yell at us. Good, bro. The election's on Tuesday. Yeah? Tuesday! Thank you, my brother. I love that. Hey, bro. Yeah, everybody content, my friend. Hey, hey. Hola, mucho gusto.

Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Thank you, brother. You have climbed six floor walk ups and braved the pouring rain to canvas our city. We both have canvas for you. I am sorry, but the days of moral victories are over because this is a campaign that is going to win on June 24th.

All right. Where are we headed? A lot of bros in that video, Sagar. You know, the Democratic Party is serious about like, hey, how do we win back these young men? They might want to do something other than just do everything they can to try to destroy this candidate who clearly shows some promise and it's like struck a nerve. And it really does tell you everything about like just how terrible the Democrats truly are and why they are so stuck and why they lose. I mean, I don't know.

This is a talented politician. Like, he is a talented guy. He, from this come-from-behind campaign, lightning in a bottle, whether or not he wins vastly exceeded anyone's expectations.

And their reaction to that is to do everything they possibly can to crush it. So in contrast to how Zoran is closing his campaign, Cuomo is closing his campaign. First of all, Griffin went out and was like, I really am having trouble even finding a video of Cuomo like in his campaign closing here. And I think everyone would acknowledge Ross Barkin, who was a great New York journalist we've had on the show. Cuomo's run an absolutely abysmal, lazy, tired campaign. But his final move here was to go, uh,

go deep back to the Democratic well and enlist former President Bill Clinton to record an ad for him. I guess sex pests stick together. Let's go ahead and take a listen to B7. Hello, this is President Bill Clinton. I'm calling to urge you to vote for Andrew Cuomo for mayor of New York City. Early voting is open now and election day is this Tuesday.

I chose Andrew to be my Secretary of Housing and Urban Development because he knew how to get things done. Together, we worked for years delivering for working people, lowering homelessness, revitalizing neighborhoods, and bringing real investment to communities that had been left behind. As governor, he built a new LaGuardia, expanded public transit, raised the minimum wage, and passed marriage equality.

Now New York needs real leadership on affordable housing, public safety, and genuine opportunity. And Andrew's ready to deliver. He's a fighter who knows how to make government work. And at a time when our basic rights are under assault, I know he'll stand up and protect the people of this city. So make your voice heard.

Vote early or show up on Tuesday. And please, vote for Andrew Cuomo for mayor of New York City. - Inspiring stuff, Sagar. - Yes, deeply. But who knows? I mean, look, it could still work, I guess. We also have this attack from Andrew Cuomo. B8 guys, let's take a listen.

L.A.'s in chaos. Now Trump's coming for New York. You think a 33-year-old legislator who's passed three bills can stop him? Andrew Cuomo's managed a state and managed crises, from COVID to Trump. We need someone experienced to stop him. Paid for by Cuomo for NYC, Inc.

There's been an ocean of money coming in for Cuomo. I mean, somebody showed me a bar chart and it was insane. It's like 10 to 1 margin in terms of his spending. So if he does win, it'll be at a very, very, very low margin. And largely, it will probably be a story of what? It's like older black voters, right? Jewish voters as well, basically, who save him. It's probably really a tale of name recognition, if I had to guess, you know, on his side. So, I mean, look, that's the other thing here. I'm not going to underestimate the Democratic establishment.

even as weak and horrible, disgusting, and all of that, as they can be. They still have a couple of tricks and things up their sleeve. Jim Clyburn came out for Andrew Cuomo, which, what? I know. Dude, you're from South Carolina. What are we doing? What do you even have an incentive here? It's like, well, we know the incentives.

Yeah. I'm shocked actually Obama didn't decide to jump in and make sure that. I'm surprised too actually. Yeah. I mean Clinton kind of makes sense. I think he lives in New York and he spends a lot of time in New York City. Not in the city, but whatever. Yeah, but his headquarters, whatever, the Clinton Global Initiative I think is in Harlem. Yeah. But, you know, the other corollary to this is if Zoran does win, we'll just be the billionaire freakout. It's going to be me.

It's going to be delicious. They're already pre-freaking out. It's going to be great. It's pre-loaded. It's locked and loaded, ready to go. I actually think it would be very healthy for New York because New York's taxation system is completely stupid. And it's like 10 people pay like 40% of the taxes. They basically designed it so that it's heavily reliant on Wall Street and ultra-rich financiers. And a lot of the more working class, middle class, and even upper middle class have less of a stake in how things work.

are all run. This is bad because it actually gives way too much outsized power to these guys who are like, I'm going to move to Palm Beach. And they're like, no, please don't. We can't pay our bills if you don't. So their whole financing structure actually does need to be totally redone. So it would be good. It would actually be a good thing if all of the super rich left New York City. It would be affordable again. Also, though,

Like they threatened to do this over Bill de Blasio too. Yeah. And they didn't. But actually I saw a chart. The number of millionaires went up in the city after de Blasio gets elected. But see, it's really not a millionaire question. It's more like a hundred. Because that's, again, the insanity of the New York system is how much is reliant on the people who make like two or three hundred million and or are billionaires. But yeah, is Wall Street going to go anywhere? No, I don't think so.

don't think so. Right. We'll see. It'll be fun. I personally, it'll be fun to watch no matter what. Oh, yeah. Absolutely. So again, guys, we'll be covering it live tonight. Make sure you tune in. Emily and I will be here. Ryan and Griffin will be up in New York covering this live and we will all find out together what happens, assuming they're able to count their ballots. That's right. Big question mark.

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