6/17/24: MSNBC Biden Age Cope, Shock Poll Show High Turnout Helps Biden, Macronism Dead Ahead Of French Elections
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Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?

Indeed we do. A lot of interesting stories to talk about this morning. So a lot of notable old man moments from Joe Biden at the G7 and various other places. Maybe even more remarkable than that is the MSNBC cope and spin. So we will show you all of that. We also have some really fascinating new polls about how the coalitions are shifting between Trump and Biden. So we're going to talk about that.

older voters for the first time in modern history may actually vote for the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Trump is cleaning up among infrequent voters. That is also a huge historical shift. So a lot that's really fascinating to dig into there in terms of those numbers. We also have some new interesting numbers out of France. So you'll recall the sort of centrist,

leader of France Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections. He appears to have sealed his political doom by making that decision. So we'll break down those numbers for you, what it could mean in the context of US politics as well. Israel is threatening a huge escalation

escalation in their war against Lebanon and Hezbollah specifically, U.S. not doing a lot to forestall that possibility. So very dire consequences potentially there. We also have the U.S. military kind of freaking out about how significant the Houthi threat has been. And we're going to take a look at what we know about how much it has cost us

us to effectively go to war with the Houthis. We also are excited to be joined by Brianna Joy Gray. As you guys know, she was recently fired from the Hill for her commentary vis-a-vis Israel and Palestine. So we want to hear directly from her about that and about censorship in general. So lots to get to today.

Yes, we're excited for that. Before we get to that, don't forget, we've got our premium subscription. You can go ahead and sign up at breakingpoints.com. There's some awesome interviews, exclusive content, et cetera, that people get early access to, specifically from CounterPoints. So there's a great guest that is coming later. So you're going to want to go ahead and sign up breakingpoints.com to become a

premium subscriber. So as Crystal alluded to, there's been some crazy Biden old man moments. You may have seen them, but what you probably didn't see is some of the most insane cope that we have gotten yet, both from MSNBC's Joe Scarborough and others on the network. Let's first start off with Biden at the G7, where historic gathering of some of the most unpopular

leaders in the entire world coming together. There's certainly something to be said about that, which we'll get to in a little bit. Where Biden certainly, I guess, made some headlines with some of his behavior. Let's go ahead and just take a look at this. So this is the most famous moment at the G7. For some reason, they decided that people should parachute in

for no good reason in front of all the G7 leaders and they're all nodding and clapping approvingly. Well, what everyone's focusing on here is this very strange Biden wandering off moment where you could see him just basically walking away from all the other leaders. He goes and tries to like engage with some people who are jumping on the other side and then has to be called back there by Maloney from Italy.

Of course, he has to be the only person to cover up his face with the aviators to avoid the old man squint. And a lot of people for focusing in on this just because it is the most classic hallmark of like old man kind of lost.

seemingly listless. Now, Crystal, the White House is accusing everyone who is showing in this video of selectively not telling the whole story. And the whole story, according to them, is that he was simply just wandering off in order to give a thumbs up there to the other parachutists. But they can't erase the weird optics of the situation. So anything you wanna say before we get to some of the other ones? Well, I'll just say as a prelude to the other ones that perhaps

if this was an isolated incident, we may be more inclined to buy their spin. Like, okay, anybody who's on camera a lot, you might have a few weird, awkward moments because all human beings at some level are fundamentally awkward.

But given the track record here, I think the initial impression of yet another wandering old man moment is probably the accurate one. That's right. So then in the span of 72 hours, Biden also finds himself in Los Angeles, right? At a fundraiser with George Clooney and Julia Roberts and Barack Obama. Well, let's go ahead and play some of this. First, here at a fundraiser in Los Angeles, there's a ritzy gathering, George Clooney, Julia Roberts,

Biden basically being led away from the stage by Obama. Now you can say again, whatever you want. The optics there, not good. Here, very odd meeting with the Pope, Biden himself, Catholic, basically touching heads with the Pope. And then here, let's take a listen to him with a TikTok guy.

And I know you're a typical press guy. You're grabbing me in front of this all of a sudden. I trust you as far as I throw your phone. I have a good arm, man. I can throw a long way. But my point is this. I have made very clear to the Israelis what they have to do in the near term. If they don't, what's going to happen? What's going to happen? Is the U.S. going to cut off fundings?

I can't because usually you tell me I have a nice suit and you didn't put it on my suit today. So I'm feeling a little bit. No, no, no. Thank you. Can you step back in, sir, please? Thank you. So being led away by Obama, I mean, the optics on that are just horrible because it's already the former president, the most popular Democrat in the entire country leading away the aging president. Weird interaction with the Pope. That one, you know, that might not even be age. That's just vintage Biden. Then it's

you've got him having an old man moment with this TikToker where the backstory is that this guy was invited to a VIP reception at the White House. And then look how angry Biden gets at him threatening to throw his phone when he just asked the question about Gaza. He immediately calls him some typical press guy could throw your phone as far as I can. So you've got the orneriness, you've got the wandering away. You've got all of this literally happening in the span of like 72 to 96

hours. There's no spinning this away. It is what it is. Yeah. And with the TikTok guy, I mean, there's a lot to say about that one because first you have

These are TikTok influencers you invited to the White House because there's an assumption that they're like, you know, going to be on your side, et cetera. You're antagonizing them. You don't seem to really understand who they are or why they're there. They're not some typical press guy. And then when he's asked a question about Israel, are you going to keep funding Israel? I mean, there's such a long pause there.

Two, before he can marshal any sort of a response, then ultimately aides have to swoop in and rescue him. I mean, this is just on like the simplest possible and most obvious question from this influencer who obviously is there because they think he's more or less friendly, a friendly influencer.

So underscores the issues that Biden obviously has with young people over the Gaza war. We're going to show some numbers too. I mean, is this a significant issue for his African-American base as well? So just...

Listen, I mean, you have to be insane, delusional, a liar, et cetera, to deny the reality in front of our face at this point, which is Joe Biden may well, very well survive another four years, but on some key levels, he's already gone. I mean, even from when he was elected,

just a few years ago. The decline is notable. And we know that not just because of these little clips that happened to sneak out, but because they refused to allow him to even do the limited interviews he was doing before. So I maintain that a few years, whether he loses now or he gains reelection, and we're talking a number of years down the road,

Once he's out of office, maybe two years later, there's going to be some White House insider who writes a tell-all about the decline, about the things they witnessed, about the moments where he couldn't marshal the words, where he didn't know what people were talking about, where he was confused. It's, you know, it's getting to, I don't think we're quite to, but we're getting towards Dianne Feinstein type of levels where everyone's just pretending who's around him that, no, no, he's vigorous and you don't see him, you know, off camera, et cetera. Like, we're not stupid. We are not stupid.

Well, you said you'd have to be a liar or propagandist to deny this. And we found our fair share over at MSNBC. Let's take a listen to how they're spinning it. It needs to be said. I mean, you have Joe Biden here with us. The schedule would be brutal for anybody, any president of any age going to Europe, you

you know, kept on going D-Day and spending five days in France going over to the G7. In the middle of the personal struggles. In the middle of the personal struggles, the Hunter trial. And yesterday, even critics were saying,

that he did a strong job, very good job representing the United States, even though, again, we have some cheap fakes that the RNC, once again, spreading vicious lies about.

Joe Biden. But that's just that's that's who they are. That's who they've become. We will point that in a second. But Jonathan Amir, I was struck by that, struck by the strong, strong message as well that Joe Biden delivered yesterday. I mean, the United States and our great allies in Europe have really stood shoulder to shoulder here other than Mike Johnson and Donald Trump holding up badly needed positions.

Security aid the Ukraine now that that roadblock has gotten passed and people who actually love freedom and and love democracy and hate authoritarians who invade other countries.

It seems to me we have them outnumbered. Got them outnumbered. Yeah, certainly with the most unpopular people in all of Europe. Yeah, we'll get to that. And our little France segment about how the Ukraine situation is basically collapsing the entire center right coalition in France, one of the great powers on the continent. Put the policy aside. He's like, look at the strong

vigorous job and what a tough schedule. It's like that is the most basic schedule for a president. Yes, we expect it's a tough schedule. It's supposed to be the toughest job in the world. That's why ostensibly you want somebody who is strong in that job that can cope with it. We don't give them points for doing the most basics of traveling from Europe to Los Angeles for a fundraiser. It's also not like he's going to do anything special. It's like, he went and saw a

and attended a review on D-Day. Yeah, so has every single president who has ever held the office. That's literally part of the job description. So there's so much going on there, but maybe it pales in comparison to our next clip if you want to say anything before. Yeah, let me, I just want to comment on the policy. I mean, this line about the, you know, oh, if you believe in freedom and democracy, like, are you kidding me? I

How can you even mouth those words now, given the support for Israel committing a genocide in Gaza? Like, how can you pretend that human rights and freedom and democracy has anything to do with this foreign policy? How can you even pretend at this point with regard to Ukraine that the policy has been anything other than abject and complete disaster with monstrous results, first and foremost for Ukrainian men and Ukrainian society? Like, that's the part that gets me is...

It'd be one thing if you could point at the policy and be like, well, he's really freaking old and I'm not sure if he's going to make it another four, but at least things are going good. But they're not, especially on foreign affairs, to try to make that argument that he's been a strong, effective leader is just complete and utter lies, propaganda and insanity that I can't even believe that Joe Scarborough believes. I mean, this person is not an idiot. He

He's not an idiot. He's not naive. He was in Washington. He knows the real reasons that these people actually make the decisions that they do. And it has nothing to do with, you know, defending democracy or human rights, et cetera. But he also, Joe Scarborough, has a track record of being wrong on basically every major foreign policy issue of our time. So I guess it's par for the course.

Hi, I'm Katie Lowe's and I'm Guillermo Diaz. And now we're back with another season of our podcast, unpacking the toolbox where Guillermo and I will be rewatching the show to officially unpack season three of scandal. Unpredictable. You don't see it coming. It's a wild, wild ride. The twists and turns in season three mesmerizing, but

Also, we get to hang out with all of our old scandal friends like Bellamy Young, Scott Foley, Tony Goldwyn, Debbie Allen, Kerry Washington. So many people. Even more shocking assassinations from Papa and Mama Pope. And yes, Katie and I's famous teeth-pulling scene that kicks off a romance.

And it was Peak TV. This is new scandal content for your eyes, for your ears, for your hearts, for your minds. Well, suit up, gladiators. Grab your big old glass of wine and prepare yourselves for even more behind the scenes. Listen to Unpacking the Toolbox on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Meet the real woman behind the tabloid headlines in a personal podcast that delves into the life of the notorious Tori Spelling as she takes us through the ups and downs of her sometimes glamorous, sometimes chaotic life and marriage. I don't think he knew how big it would be, how big the life I was given and live is.

I think he was like, oh, yeah, things come and go. But with me, it never came and went. Is she Donna Martin or a down-and-out divorcee? Is she living in Beverly Hills or a trailer park? In a town where the lines are blurred, Tori is finally going to clear the air in the podcast Misspelling. When a woman has nothing to lose, she has everything to gain. I just filed for divorce. Whoa, I said the words. Yeah.

That I've said like in my head for like 16 years. Wild. Listen to Misspelling on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Cheaters and Backstabbers. I'm Shadi Diaz. And I'm Kate Robards. And we are New York City stand-up comedians and best friends. And we love a good cheating and backstabbing story. Oops.

So this is a series where our guests reveal their most shocking cheating stories. Join us as we learn how to avoid getting our hearts broken or our backs slashed. Listen to Cheaters and Backstabbers on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

I'm Angie Martinez. Check out my podcast where I talk to some of the biggest athletes, musicians, actors in the world. We go beyond the headlines and the soundbites to have real conversations about real life, death, love, and everything in between. This life right here, just finding myself, just relaxation, just not feeling stressed, just not feeling pressed. This is what I'm most proud of. I'm proud of Mary because I've been through hell and some horrible things.

That feeling that I had of inadequacy is gone. You're going to die being you. So you got to constantly work on who you are to make sure that the stars align correctly.

Life ain't easy and it's getting harder and harder. So if you have a story to tell, if you've come through some trials, you need to share it because you're going to inspire someone. You're going to give somebody the motivation to not give up, to not quit. Listen to Angie Martinez IRL on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Criminalia. I'm Maria Tremarcki.

And I'm Holly Frey. Together, we invite you into the dark corridors of history and true crime. For each season, we explore a new theme. From poisoners to stalkers, art thieves to snake oil salesmen. We uncover the secrets of history's most interesting figures, such as Walter Minx, the man who built his own submarine hoping to escape with his blackmail payout under Lake Michigan. It sounds made up, but it's 100% true.

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Even more MSNBC slavish North Korean propaganda. Let's take a listen. It's amazing because you think about the fact that the president is playing chess and the former president at best is playing like Hungry Hungry Hippo. Well, if that maybe Uno. I'm gonna give it Uno maybe. He's playing Uno. Uno and somebody keeps telling him draw four. I just, you know, it's the split screen this week. Much like the split screen last week, we keep talking about the split screens that have happened.

And again, for everyone that's saying, you know, oh, Joe Biden seems a little too old. I don't know about you, but from France...

Doing all these things, coming back to America, going back out to the G7 in Italy. Now he's on his way to L.A. right now as we speak to do another event. This is and I don't know where Donald Trump has been. Oh, yes. I didn't know where he's been railing, railing against the machine on a stage. It's a little bit marginal, but I think it shows that the one thing we've known about Joe Biden since he took office is this is a man who meets his moments.

He met his moment at the beginning. He met his moment with the economic crisis in the wake of COVID. He met his moment with Ukraine. He has met his moment over and over and over again. And I think now, look, we're just a few days away now from that first debate. And so what the split screen is going to look like is exactly what we're going to see in Atlanta not too long from now, which is someone railing against the ghost. Who else is in the room with you, Donald? Do you see the people there? With someone who's going to be like, you really want four more years of this?

I don't know what split screen they're looking at because the only one I'm seeing here is Biden. Now look, Trump, he certainly says some off the wall stuff and he goes on his meandering rabbit holes. That said, I covered him for many, many years. That has been par for the course now for a long time, before even this race. It's not all that noticeable, honestly, in terms of

the difference in his performance. Whereas with Biden, I mean, I don't know how, again, you can deny reality. We also have this we can put up there on the screen. This is from the New York Post. They report that Biden's condition, quote, shocks allies at the G7 summit, with one saying that it is worst he has ever

ever been. This was during discussions at the G7 diplomatic insiders telling British press quote that Biden had been losing focus and that is the worst that he has ever been. In several separate instances, he had awkward exchanges with Meloni from Italy, quote, apparently got on the wrong foot with her, keeping her waiting for over 20 minutes before arriving for an unknown

reason. Then in the meeting itself, like things kind of went off the rails. At the same time, he had all of these meetings with other leaders, many of them allegedly, or at least their aides telling all of their local media, they're shocked at his condition. This is just more and more that adds to what we already see on the camera. And yet for them, it's like they are literally living in a different reality.

I mean, I wonder with the MSNBC crew, like, does their own audience even believe this and buy this at this point? I don't actually think... I don't actually think so. Maybe because their audience is so small. But, um...

When you look at those word clouds that we had from JL partners last week, every demographic, every partisan group, Democrats, Republicans, and certainly independents, most of all independents, the number one word they associated with Joe Biden is old. So I don't even know if the MSNBC crowd is buying that he's playing 90 chests.

Waltrip is playing hungry, hungry hippo. I mean, that's kind of an amusing turn of phrase. I wish it actually applied. You know, if I didn't think Joe Biden was a monster at this point, I might find the whole situation somewhat tragic because here's a man who chased the White House his entire adult life.

Finally, he's able to grab the brass ring and it comes at a time when he's basically too old to do the job. And I think, I don't know if it was just manipulation, public manipulation, or if he really considered, if he had more self-awareness at the time when he was running back in 2020 and he was suggesting to the public that he would step down, that he would serve only one term.

And now that he's in the job, there's both just the allure of the power and not wanting to give that up. But also, I think as he has gotten to a point of age and decline, he doesn't have enough self-awareness to realize how much he's lost at this point.

So in any case, whether it was just a sheer lie for public manipulation or whether he really had some thoughts of moving aside, you know, if you actually believe the things that Democrats claim to believe about the existential threats facing the country, this is, you know, what Cenk Uygur says, and I think he's 100% correct.

this is one of the most selfish, narcissistic moves that you could possibly make. It really is a betrayal of his own voters and the reasons that they put him in place to begin with. And it has set up Democrats for potentially a stunning loss against another incredibly weak candidate who would be easily defeated by virtually any other just like normal, basically coherent Democrat.

Hi, I'm Katie Lowes. And I'm Guillermo Diaz. And now we're back with another season of our podcast, Unpacking the Toolbox, where Guillermo and I will be rewatching the show. To officially unpack season three of Scandal. Unpredictable. You don't see it coming. It's a wild, wild ride. The twists and turns in season three. Mesmerizing. But also,

Also, we get to hang out with all of our old Scandal friends like Bellamy Young, Scott Foley, Tony Goldwyn, Debbie Allen, Kerry Washington. So many people. Even more shocking assassinations from Papa and Mama Pope. And yes, Katie and I's famous teeth pulling scene that kicks off a romance. And it was peak TV. This is new Scandal KCBQ.

content for your eyes, for your ears, for your hearts, for your minds. Well, suit up, gladiators. Grab your big old glass of wine and prepare yourselves for even more behind the scenes. Listen to Unpacking the Toolbox on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Meet the real woman behind the tabloid headlines in a personal podcast that delves into the life of the notorious Tori Spelling, as she takes us through the ups and downs of her sometimes glamorous, sometimes chaotic life and marriage. I don't think he knew how big it would be, how big the life I was given and live is.

I think he was like, oh, yeah, things come and go. But with me, it never came and went. Is she Donna Martin or a down-and-out divorcee? Is she living in Beverly Hills or a trailer park? In a town where the lines are blurred, Tori is finally going to clear the air in the podcast Misspelling. When a woman has nothing to lose, she has everything to gain. I just filed for divorce. Whoa, I said the words.

That I've said like in my head for like 16 years. Wild. Listen to Miss Spelling on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Angie Martinez. Check out my podcast where I talk to some of the biggest athletes, musicians, actors in the world. We go beyond the headlines and the soundbites to have real conversations about real life, death, love, and everything in between.

This life right here, just finding myself, just this relaxation, this not feeling stressed, this not feeling pressed. This is what I'm most proud of. I'm proud of Mary because I've been through hell and some horrible things. That feeling that I had of inadequacy is gone. You're going to die being you. So you got to constantly work on who you are to make sure that the stars align correctly.

Life ain't easy and it's getting harder and harder. So if you have a story to tell, if you've come through some trials, you need to share it because you're going to inspire someone. You're going to give somebody the motivation to not give up, to not quit. Listen to Angie Martinez IRL on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome to Cheaters and Backstabbers. I'm Shadi Diaz. And I'm Kate Robards. And we are New York City stand-up comedians and best friends. And we love a good cheating and backstabbing story. So this is a series where our guests reveal their most shocking cheating stories. Join us as we learn how to avoid getting our hearts broken or our backs slashed. Listen to Cheaters and Backstabbers on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

Welcome to Criminalia. I'm Maria Tremarcki. And I'm Holly Frey. Together, we invite you into the dark corridors of history and true crime. For each season, we explore a new theme. From poisoners to stalkers, art thieves to snake oil salesmen. We uncover the secrets of history's most interesting figures, such as Walter Minx, the man who built his own submarine hoping to escape with his blackmail payout under Lake Michigan. It sounds made up.

but it's 100% true. We'll explore the crimes as well as societal forces at play, from unfair sentencing to jaw-dissolving health risks. And tune in at the end of each episode as we indulge in cocktails and mocktails inspired by each story. Listen to Criminalia on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

We have a lot of polling actually to show some of the dichotomies that we have in the race. Let's go to the next block here, please. And let's start with the first element, the, quote, dread election. Let's go and put it up there on the screen. The share of, quote, double haters has hit historic levels.

Now, what you can see in front of you is that the share of Americans who have unfavorable views of both major party candidates is at an all-time high, nearly as high as 2016 when Hillary Clinton was on the ballot.

There has really been no parallel for those two elections, 2016 and 2024. Even only just 13% back in 2020 said that they had an unfavorable view of both of the major party candidates. Now, this actually could be a decent thing for Trump. We'll get to that. They're

We have to parse some of the nuance here. But last time around, the unfavorable views of hate both parties broke hard for Trump because people had a very negative view of Hillary Clinton. There is some evidence to say that some of that unfavorability could be transferring over to Joe Biden. But what this has also done is it has really forced a choice amongst key parts of coalition voters. Let's put this up there. As you alluded to, Joe Biden

somehow has gained significantly amongst older voters. Now, traditionally,

older voters are more conservative. And the thesis was that, yes, Democrats were gonna lose older voters, but keep the margin relatively small and we'll blow it out amongst black, Hispanic, and younger voters. Well, what you can see actually in front of you is that a lot of the data that has been collected recently shows that there has been a big flip, mostly in the last couple of years, where some 51% now of people who are over the age of 65 support Biden and a significant drop

for Trump in his support, which was well above 50% in 2020, down to just 42%. And I think a lot of the data that we've talked about here on this show can give us some inklings as to why. First and foremost is that the number one reason that younger voters, Hispanic voters and others, people who are supporting Trump, is they want change, even though they don't even like Trump. They just want a major change, a shock to the system. Inflation is killing them. They're having problems with

housing in general. They see a real shakiness, uncertainty in terms of America's foreign policy abroad. If you're old, I mean, this has been the greatest term in modern history, right? You've seen

significant increase in your housing prices. You, in general, have a good stake in the system. You have enough of a cushion in order to be able to eat inflation. A lot of these boomer voters, I mean, they have very different views on Israel, on Ukraine, right? These are people who view Russia, literally remember the Cold War, and in some cases haven't really forgotten it. So for them, they've gotten a lot of what they want. In fact,

They probably hold against Biden that he withdrew from Afghanistan. These were the coalition of voters that delivered George W. Bush to the same White House. They remember 9/11, they're probably still steeped in a lot of that propaganda. They watch a lot of cable news and that's why I said many of them may believe the propaganda. These are the key demos that keep all three of the cable news networks going. So for them, you could see that their stake in the system is actually doing well. While a stake for everybody else is not doing well and that's what explains

that overall drop. And when Trump runs against the system, he in a way is running against the consensus for a lot of the people who are older. Yeah, and just to underscore the fact that I mean, in modern history, this would be unprecedented for Republicans to lose older voters. And it has been a huge benefit to them electorally that older voters have been so strongly in their camp. Why? Because they vote. And we're gonna get to this in a minute.

that this is contributing to a huge shift in, you know, who infrequent voters favor. But just to pause on the older demographic shifting to Biden, it really is remarkable. It's interesting because for one thing, I think Joe Biden is a product of his generation. What he has his finger on the pulse of is how your average 80-year-old feels about these conflicts and about the country and about the economy, et cetera. And in fact, when you look at the issues

that Democrats are prioritizing, you know, the fact that they lead with preserving democracy. Well, it's older voters who say that that is a top priority. And so not only do you have the bifurcated economy that you're talking about, Sagar, where if you are an asset owner, which, you know, that very much skews along age demographic lines,

So if you are an older voter, you're much more likely to be a homeowner. You're much more likely to have some investments in the stock market or 401k retirement account. You're much more likely to own assets. And those are the people who have benefited overwhelmingly from our economic system under Joe Biden. But honestly, for the last several decades, that's the way our economy has been set up. It's just

particularly notable in that divide is growing and growing. So for you, yeah, things seem really good economically. Well, that allows you to prioritize some of these more sort of

high-minded theoretical issues like, quote-unquote, preserving democracy. You also have a group of voters and older voters who remember a time when there was a lot more reverence and trust in American institutions. You know, if you're a young voter and your whole life has been formed in the, you know, post-Iraq war, post-financial crisis, Donald Trump era, you

Your whole like, oh, the institutions, the norms, the guardrails, like you just don't have that in you. Whereas for older voters, there's still this instinct that Joe Biden really reflects of these institutions really matter and we really have to preserve them. And that's top priority. Also, as I said, if you're doing economically better, you can sort of afford to have those types of concerns.

So I think the Democratic message in a lot of ways is perfectly pitched and tuned to this older demographic. And you already mentioned as well on foreign affairs, this is the group that's the most pro-Ukraine. This is the group that shares the views of Joe Biden vis-a-vis Israel and has, you know, in their mind, this is our ally.

ally against the Soviet Union in the Cold War, and we just stand by Israel. That's what we do, period, end of story, and also have an understanding of Israel that's very different from what is actually going on in modern Israel today. So when you think about all those pieces, it makes a hell of a lot of sense, and it also reminds us that voters are not stupid or irrational. For older voters who benefited from this system, I guess this is a rational place to be. Yeah.

People vote their interests mostly. And actually, as you just said, when they've fulfilled the majority of their interests, then they can worry about high-minded ideals. Well, and let's be very, very clear. He could win because of this. And that is the craziest part. Let's put this up on the screen. Fantastic write-up here from the New York Times really confirms a lot of what we've talked about here, where the headline is, if everyone voted, would Biden benefit?

Not anymore. So if you voted in the 2022 primary election, it was a Biden plus five overall in the sample. But if you voted in the 2022 midterms, but not the primaries, it was just Biden plus one. In other words, people who are very invested, primary voters, people who come out when others don't, those people are skewing much more heavily Biden. Let's go ahead to the next one because this confirms even more. If you voted in the 2020 presidential election,

But you didn't vote in a primary or in a midterm, Trump is actually winning that group by plus one. So what do we know about presidential elections? Huge portions of the public only come out to vote in presidentials if they come out to vote at all.

mostly infrequent, they might like Trump, they hadn't voted since 1984 or whatever. They're like, I like what this guy has to say, or I really hate Trump, okay, I'm gonna come out and vote. But they don't frequently vote, they don't register for campaigns.

or they don't sign petitions, they're not going to city council meetings, etc. Those people are the people that Trump is winning right now. Let's go to the next one too as well. No voting history, this is the crazy part and this is what Biden people should really be afraid of. It's Trump plus 14 people who have never voted before. Now again, that's

could be a good thing if they do come out to vote. It's also, you know, the past is usually predictive of future behavior. As in, if you've never voted before, why should we have any confidence that you're actually going to go and vote on election day or get a mail-in ballot and send it in? It takes a little bit of effort, effort that you've never mustered previously.

If we'll go to the next part as well, you can continue to see if everyone voted, again, it is not Biden who would benefit. And the reason why this is such a big flip is just because –

In all of the past, previously, it was a Democratic talking point that if we just got these 100 million people who had never voted before, if they actually came out to vote, Democrats would win every single election. But Trump has completely realigned that where these frequent voters, suburban women and older voters who are voting on either abortion and or preserving democracy, they are crawling over broken glass to participate. And

And it used to be that many of those people were Republicans, but a lot of them are very rich and a lot of them are very old. And on aggregate, those are the people that you would always want to be coming out for you because that's how you prevail at the local and the state and the federal election. So Obama was kind of the inverse of this. He was the king of winning the infrequent voter, which is why he would win.

Meanwhile, 1,000 state house seats, both chambers of Congress, midterm elections, he would always suffer. Now it seems that Biden is actually flipping that around. Then we come down to this trite observation, quote unquote, it comes down to turnout. But unironically, it really does here, Crystal, because this time, if it's a high turnout election, like in 2020, I think Trump is gonna win. If it's a low turnout election, then I think Biden's gonna win.

Biden is going to win because he's got more actual frequent voters who are coming out. And on balance, those are the people in general who you want to bet on. You never know. What if it rains on Election Day? What if this happens? What if that happens? Like the people who you want who are always voting, those are the people who you want with you on Election Day. And the funny thing is, even the two parties don't seem to have realized the way this has flipped.

Because so much of modern political history, I mean, think of all the battles that have been fought over like voter ID. And it's always Democrats on the side of let's do mail-in voting. Let's have a longer early voting period. Let's extend the hours. Let's make it easier to vote. Let's make it so you don't have to have a driver's license in order to vote so we can get as many people as possible to the polls.

And the Republicans have always, and continue, by the way, to be on the other side of that, of let's restrict the hours. Let's make it harder to vote. Let's require various forms of ID in order to vote. That just political logic, you know, there's a morality question around that too. But just in terms of like the naked political calculus, it should now be Democrats who are like, let's make it harder to vote. Let's make it so that it's only during like working hours. And so only old retirees can easily go and cast their ballots. So,

I think even the parties haven't recognized the way this shift has occurred. It's hard for me to wrap my head around because this is so baked in to the Obama era, like conception of politics, that the infrequent voters, that this new rising young coalition is the core of the Democratic Party and the Republicans have the older voters who are always reliable. That's why they always crush the Democrats in special election and midterms.

We have seen the way that's flipped. And so, you know, as we've been covering the special elections and in particular, like we just covered the one in Ohio 6, where Democrats outperformed by 20 points

In a very red district that Trump won by 29 points, that is a story of who turned out. I believe we were looking at some of the numbers in one of the key counties there. The Republican candidate who did prevail, but it was much more narrow than it should have been. He was only able to draw about 12% of Trump's

Trump's 2020 totals there. Whereas the Democratic candidate who spent no money, by the way, and was like, basically no one had ever heard of this person. He was able to obtain about 22% of Joe Biden's vote total. So it's just purely a matter of turnout. So who's going to show up on election day? I mean, it really is very interesting. It's hard for me to imagine that people have never voted in presidential election before are going to find this particular election so like exciting and compelling that they're going to show up.

But even when you're just looking at the universe of people who voted last presidential election, okay, well, that seems more plausible that those people show back up again in another presidential election. And guess what? Among those people, Trump does have the edge. - Yeah, bingo. And let's put this up there. The traditional voter demographic that Biden voters and the Democratic Party could always rely on, Black voters. Well, here you see an oversample by USA Today. Black voters are not thrilled with Biden, but they dislike Trump more.

If you dig, though, into a little bit, they show, quote, how Biden has lost ground, not necessarily to Trump, but either to non-voting or to third-party candidates. And, quote, in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the race could be decided by the slimmest of margin, the president can hardly afford to lose any support from his most reliable base as he faces a rematch with Trump. And the support is not really as big as he previously thought. It's actually in Pennsylvania, he's getting some 56% of the vote.

But RFK Jr. and Cornel West are racking up almost 15% combined. And you've still got 14% who are undecided. In Michigan, for what I have in front of me, very similar numbers. Joe Biden, 54%. Trump's got 15%. But

Again, RFK Jr. and Cornel West are combined percentage roughly around 14 points and then undecided at 14 as well. So this is where the third party phenomenon could really come back to Biden because you cannot afford to lose those votes in the slimmest of margins, especially in the cities, places like Detroit and Pennsylvania, where really those cities, those margins are their lack of performance percentage.

in 2016, that's what cost Hillary the election, both in Pennsylvania and in Michigan, and Wisconsin too, actually, Milwaukee and many of the urban core in Wisconsin. A lot of those voters, they just didn't come out to vote when they previously had voted for Obama, and boom, Trump wins the election.

Yeah, and this was a demographic too where we saw weakness for Democrats in the midterms. It was kind of covered up by the fact that they had outperformance in other areas. And so we're able to do much better than people thought they were gonna do, much better than historically the party in power does during midterms. But this was a notable place of weakness. And if you dig into the numbers of, okay, black voters who backed Joe Biden last time, but they're not saying they're gonna back him this time,

What are their reasons? And what they say is that more than a third say they just haven't been impressed with his performance in office. Okay, fair enough. So just sort of general, like, I don't feel like this is going all that well. 14% said he's too old for the job. 13%.

said that they are concerned about a support for Israel during the war in Gaza. That was interesting to me that that number was as high as the he's too old number. And another 11% said that Biden hasn't kept his promises. So, you know, in a lot of sense, you know, Charlemagne is obviously, you know, he's an entertainer, he's a prominent figure. But I do feel like he's been representing a lot of these feelings.

in the way that he's discussed the Biden presidency and his unwillingness to come out and actively endorse him this time around. Now, he's indicated all but come out and said, okay, he's gonna vote for Joe Biden again, but he feels that promises have been broken. He feels that he was sort of, you know, led down the garden path last time around and can't put himself out in the same way.

And so, you know, the question for Democrats is, number one, is RFK Jr., Cornel West, are they going to actually be on the ballot? That's question number one. And number two, when you come down to it and people realize like, okay, but at the end of the day, it's going to be Biden or Trump. Does that bring people back around? And there's a good chance that it will, we should say, because that's typically what happens frequently with third party candidates is,

is when things get real and, you know, people are really focused in on this come September, October, there is a kind of, you know, realization that there are only really two viable choices and support for third party candidates falls off. That's historically what's happened. Is that what happens this time around? Big

Big question mark. Yeah, we will see, as they say. But overall, interesting signs and just more so about one of the great lessons that we can all take away from this is that politics is a living thing. It doesn't just stay static. Things have changed dramatically in four years. They have become unrecognizable in 16 years. And all those people who wrote books about the laws of politics, James Carville, 40 more years, etc.,

Didn't work out. And I think that's a great thing because it shows that people are not static, that they do pay attention. They change their mind. And just because what they change their mind on may not be what the pundit class wants them to, they certainly do pay attention in their own way. So I have more faith actually in the American people because they're always actually changing their mind and looking at things and deciding things on the fly. And I think that's good.

Masmerizing.

Also, we get to hang out with all of our old scandal friends like Bellamy Young, Scott Foley, Tony Goldwyn, Debbie Allen, Kerry Washington. So many people. Even more shocking assassinations from Papa and Mama Pope. And yes, Katie and I's famous teeth pulling scene that kicks off a romance. And it was peak TV. This is new scandal.

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I don't think he knew how big it would be, how big the life I was given and live is.

I think he was like, oh, yeah, things come and go. But with me, it never came and went. Is she Donna Martin or a down-and-out divorcee? Is she living in Beverly Hills or a trailer park? In a town where the lines are blurred, Tori is finally going to clear the air in the podcast Misspelling. When a woman has nothing to lose, she has everything to gain. I just filed for divorce. Whoa, I said the words.

That I've said, like, in my head for, like, 16 years. Wild. Listen to Misspelling on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Cheaters and Backstabbers. I'm Shadi Diaz. And I'm Kate Robards. And we are New York City stand-up comedians and best friends. And we love a good cheating and backstabbing story. Welcome.

So this is a series where our guests reveal their most shocking cheating stories. Join us as we learn how to avoid getting our hearts broken or our backs slashed. Listen to Cheaters and Backstabbers on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Angie Martinez. Check out my podcast where I talk to some of the biggest athletes, musicians, actors in the world. We go beyond the headlines and the soundbites to have real conversations about real life, death, love, and everything in between.

This life right here, just finding myself, just this relaxation, this not feeling stressed, this not feeling pressed. This is what I'm most proud of. I'm proud of Mary because I've been through hell and some horrible things. That feeling that I had of inadequacy is gone. You're going to die being you. So you got to constantly work on who you are to make sure that the stars align correctly.

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Let's move to France where, again, people are certainly changing their minds. There is a fantastic thread here. I want to make sure I say this gentleman's name correctly. I think it's Arnaud Bertrand. Should we go with that? Yep.

He has had some fantastic insights into French politics that we wanted to put here on the show just because it is possibly a harbinger of some major change that's happening here in the US. But probably most importantly, it's just that the European neoliberal consensus, as we previously talked about at the G7, has never been more unpopular actually with European voters. So let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. This is some analysis basically about the French election that is upcoming,

which was called by Emmanuel Macron after the shock win of Marine Le Pen's party in the European Parliamentary elections. What Arnaud Bertrand says here is that the left, quote, "got their shit together," quote, "very fairly fast, almost immediately announcing the creation of a popular front that gathers all of the left-wing parties." Let's go to the next part. He says, "It's on the right that things have really started to go wild,

after the president of one of the major center-right parties, the party of Jacques Chirac and of Nicolas Sarkozy, announced that he would then do an alliance with Marine Le Pen's party. Let's go to the next one. He says almost immediately, though, top officials in that party started saying that person was speaking in their name only, and he needed to resign from the party's presidency. And now there is some major infighting as to who is managing this party. Are they going to ally with Le Pen?

or not, let's go continue. He says, meanwhile, Macron is, quote, shooting at this newly formed popular front, saying that those who are joining it are, quote, anti-Semites. So we're bringing some of the Israel stuff into this. And because the left-wing party coalition, quote, campaigned for a lot of Palestinians, so obviously that makes them and everyone with them anti-Semitic. So continue, if we want, here in some of this analysis, quote,

If we look at the actual projections, it looks like right now, and this is from the Financial Times, that the far right block, his words, of Marine Le Pen and some of the leftovers of the right wing are in the lead for 362 seats.

The left wing block, the so-called popular front, is in the lead with 211 seats. Meanwhile, Macron's party is in the lead in just three seats. And none of these three seats are even in France. All of them are seats for French people abroad. And then that old center-right party is in the lead for just one. So remember, as you said, the election is two rounds. The projections for the second round are the left and the far right would battle it out for the 536 seats.

But that the Macron alliance would only make the runoff in some 41 seats. So basically, it quote, looks like they will essentially destroy Macronism as a political force in France. Either that is somehow 90 chess that no one understands, or his dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president. Is it 90 chess or is it hungry, hungry hippos? Yeah, I'm thinking hungry, hungry hippo. Probably dumber than hungry, hungry hippo.

I mean, look, I mean, I think it's fascinating because, again, I don't really know why he's doing this at all. What we do know here is that the neolive consensus in France, which is a leading indicator, I would say, for the rest of the continent, it's dead. It's either left or right, and actually, like, left or right in terms of who is going to win here. And Le Pen and her party, it's looking like a historic first for them to actually genuinely take power. And this is ahead of the 2027 election where

Where if they do so, I mean, this destroys Emmanuel Macron, his entire legacy as the president of France. And his real legacy would almost be like Obama ushering in this new era as opposed to actually doing anything himself.

It is remarkable. I think he was betting on, which is usually a safe bet, left-wing dysfunction. Yes. He was thinking that the lefties wouldn't be able to get their shit together, wouldn't form this popular front, which they did very quickly and were able to, you know, announce candidates in all of these seats. Incredible feats of organizational muscle from, you know, a group of individuals who are not really known for such. And so he thought they would remain splintered.

And then he would be able to bet on what is, he hopes, still a majority revulsion towards the far right and Le Pen and be able to convince people like the lesser of two evils, kind of a vote once again, and be able to potentially pick up seats.

Instead, they did get their act together. And so as you were laying out, what will happen is you'll have an initial vote in all of these districts and then the top two vote getting parties, then they'll head to the runoff. So if you're not in the top two, that's it. Game over. They're leading in three seats. They're only potentially making it to the runoff in right now projected some 40 seats. So you're done. Now you have the left and the right battling it out for the future. And

Listen, I don't want to read too much into it, but I think when you look here and you look at the negative approval ratings for G7 leaders, when you look at Joe Biden and the disgust for him and the sense that the economy is going backwards and the country is on the wrong track, which has really been a sentiment that's been picking up and picking up over the years.

It's just pretty clear that for most people in these countries, they feel, not that they would articulate it this way, but they feel that the neoliberal consensus that has reigned for, you know, 40 plus years really started under Jimmy Carter and then sort of solidified under Ronald Reagan and then Bill Clinton, right?

it has failed them. It has failed to deliver economic security for them. It has failed to deliver higher wages. It has increasingly funneled more and more and more wealth to the very top. It has not had any significant answers for various societal issues

And so they're done with it. I also think it's really interesting in the context of Macron. I brought this up before, but again, has some potential implications for Joe Biden. Although you don't want to read too much into these things because they have such a different political system than we do.

But Macron did try to, he realized immigration was a big problem for him. He tried to do more hardline things. They were so significant that, you know, Le Pen was saying, hey, this is an ideological win for me. Macron's own party was rejecting it and wouldn't vote for it, et cetera. And surprise, surprise, like if you're an immigration hardliner, that wasn't gonna ignore, like that wasn't gonna make you fall in love with Emmanuel Macron. And same in the US, as Biden tries to signal this, you know, let me be more hardline on immigration shift.

you're not gonna win over Trump supporters. If immigration is your top issue, you're still not voting for Joe Biden. So that ploy really hasn't worked for Macron. It hasn't worked for any of the European leaders. And I don't think it's gonna work for Joe Biden either. - It's complicated, I agree. In terms of the politics there, also, I would say the polling here is so radically shifting. We should cover this tomorrow. I've been sending some stuff.

I'll save some of my comments on that. Let's put this up there on the screen because this highlights exactly what you're talking about. Look here at the approval ratings for the G7 leaders. So you've got Olaf Scholz, minus 51 in Germany. Trudeau, minus 38 in Canada. Minus 31 for Macron in France. Minus 10 for Meloni in Italy. She somehow is the most popular lady on the entire stage.

Biden, minus 18.5 for his approval rating. Kishida in Japan is at minus 40. I don't know what's going on in Japan. I need to look into that more. And then Rishi Sunak takes the cake, minus 54. So like you said,

Each of these are individual leaders. Each of these have individual circumstances, but we are more connected than at any time before. And one of the thing about globalization is that all of our economies look more similar today than they ever did in the past. So what we can generally surmise across all of these is that you have a deceleration of wealth for the bottom tranche or really the bottom half of a lot of these societies. Safety social nets or not,

In general, economic opportunity is being divided. You see higher inflation against all of these economies. And in each one, there is a asking of the new generation, which is flirting with left and right politics, which have not been seen in any of these countries in decades. You see this with the rise of a major right-wing coalition in Japan.

You see the AFD doing incredibly well in Germany. I believe in Canada and in France, you're seeing some similar dynamics. And then Italy, of course, Maloney herself was heralded allegedly as some like right wing person, although she's governed very differently while she's in office. But at the very least, in every instance, you know, we're seeing a flirting with different types of politics, which were unheard of.

really in the last 45 years or so, which means some sort of new quote unquote world order, no conspiracy, is likely inevitable if we are to hew to democracy. I mean, let's be honest though, we could go in the other direction. Just because they're unpopular doesn't mean that they couldn't become more dictatorial and controlling and censorship written to try and control the current world order that we are in. I think that's the more likely path because all of them have such

religious devotion, for example, to Ukraine. I mean, this entire summit is basically just being a slave to Ukraine and being like, oh, here's 50 billion more dollars and we're with you until the very end and let's endorse your BS peace conference and all of this other stuff. But but

again, they're doing so in a very unpopular manner if you look at the feedback from all of the actual democracies for what's happening. So that's really, I think, the only way that we can connect and why I think the France example is so important is because it really is part of a global phenomenon. Just previously, like we saw with Brexit,

last time in 2015. Yeah. And I think it's important to say too, because you could look at those numbers and go, oh, well, I mean, first of all, Joe Biden's doing better than a lot of these people. Second of all, you could say, oh, well, they're just like a victim of circumstance because they had COVID. And now you've got inflation as a result of COVID. And so people are very upset about that. And they're blaming their leaders, even though, you know, there's a consistent theme across the countries. So it's not all the leader's fault. But

If we look then at the numbers for AMLO in Mexico, where they also have struggled with inflation and GDP growth isn't astronomical, although there is a lot of, there's increasing as there's been more move towards nearshoring away from China. There is a lot of economic possibility for Mexico right now that I think people there are very excited about.

But you had a different economic program that actually delivered wage increases, significant wage increases notably beyond inflation for average Mexican workers. And so because of that, in spite of the difficult global circumstances, AMLO, one of the most popular leaders in the entire world,

So it's not that, you know, they're just a victim of fate and circumstance and there was absolutely nothing that they can do. People have rightly judged that there were other pathways open to them and they didn't take it and that they aren't focused on delivering for their lives. Instead, they're focused on, you know, backing Israel and their endless assault against Gaza and backing Ukraine in what has become, you know, a hopeless situation rather than improving the lives of their own taxpaying citizens themselves.

So, you know, I think some of those themes are probably very consistent across those countries. - Well, there's a couple lessons. So like I just said, I have the most popular leaders in front of me. One of these surveys is actually after the Indian election. Even though Modi suffered a setback, he and AMLO are the two most popular leaders in the world. What can you at least say about those two leaders?

neither would ever be accused of being quote unquote neoliberal. And in fact, have explicitly rejected the implicit neoliberal consensus. So in India's case, you had the Congress Party. This was the neoliberal party been in power for decades. Very similar actually to Mexico and their part of

ruling coalition, Modi comes in and basically sweeps it off the table, turns it almost into an irrelevant political force whose only victory is winning a few more seats but still not being in power. AMLO, very similar, basically just delivered this huge mandate for his party in Mexico. Despite, I mean, a lot of troubling problems, but at the very least in Mexico, the previously ruling center-right party, they're not in the discussion as part of

of the actual solution. The voters don't even count them in their mind. So I think in both of those cases, we could see that if you are willing to move in that direction, you can reap massive political rewards in either of those. However, the G7, these economies, like I said, these are some of the most highly developed economies in the world in a certain sense, like the elites of all of those countries do control things at a much higher level. Whereas in a developing nation, I think

for some reason, you know, you can both have like lots of oligarchy, but you can have some sort of democratic revolt and institutions are not nearly as entrenched and are probably easier to take on in that certain scenario. So it's, I mean, it's a fascinating discussion, honestly, like we said about the whole new world order and what that may look like, as opposed to, we really have two options, like going down the path of democracy or more control, more censorship. They'll probably try for the former. The only question is, is it actually going to work?

Yeah. And of course, to bring it back to the U.S., even as we have a number of third party candidates on the ballot because of the nature of our system, we don't really have a non-neoliberal option. We have Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Donald Trump, Matt Stiller did a phenomenal piece. We're actually going to try to have him on the show to talk about it, about the way Trump doesn't even talk about going after business anymore. He doesn't even pretend.

Instead, he's in these fundraising rooms promising them everything that they could possibly want. And we know, of course, when he was in office, well, he did do some things, especially vis-a-vis China, vis-a-vis renegotiating NAFTA that were different and a genuine break from

from the past neoliberal consensus, the primary accomplishment was the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, which was sitting on the shelf from the neoliberal Reaganite type of system. That's one of his primary promises moving forward is we're going to make sure we continue those tax cuts. So you really don't have another option, although stylistically, Trump gives the vibes

of being a real threat to the system, even as he's promising them like, no, no, no, I'm going to do what you want. And billionaires are responding to that. I mean, this is another way going back to how the coalitions are shifting. Under Obama and Hillary and Biden last time around, Wall Street really started going for Democrats. They're going back to Republicans now. They're going back to backing Trump. They feel very comfortable with him because they don't like under Biden the antitrust

move and the more pro-labor posture. So in any case, that's part of what makes our system unique. And in my opinion, uniquely bad is that we don't really have any options beyond the status quo. Yeah, certainly, especially in the modern era. Didn't always used to be like this, though, at least back in the 1800s and early 1900s.

Hi, I'm Katie Lowes. And I'm Guillermo Diaz. And we're the hosts of Unpacking the Toolbox, the Scandal Rewatch podcast where we're talking about all the best moments of the show. Mesmerizing. But also, we get to hang out with all of our old Scandal friends like Bellamy Young, Scott Foley, Tony Goldwyn, Debbie Allen, Kerry Washington. Well, suit up, gladiators. Grab your big old glass of wine and prepare yourselves for an even more behind-the-scenes Scandal.

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