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cover of episode 9/23/24: Trump Surges In Sun Belt, Kamala Babbles w/Oprah, Trump Rejects Kamala Debate, 'Black N*zi' Republican Staff Revolt, RFK Caught In Reporter Scandal, Israel Threatens All Out Lebanon War

9/23/24: Trump Surges In Sun Belt, Kamala Babbles w/Oprah, Trump Rejects Kamala Debate, 'Black N*zi' Republican Staff Revolt, RFK Caught In Reporter Scandal, Israel Threatens All Out Lebanon War

2024/9/23
logo of podcast Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
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Krystal和Saagar讨论了最新的民调结果，其中包括《纽约时报》的民调显示特朗普在阳光地带的摇摆州表现强劲，以及Nate Silver的预测模型显示哈里斯和特朗普的支持率不相上下。他们还分析了早期投票数据、选民情绪以及可能影响选举结果的各种因素，例如辩论和意外事件。他们认为，这是一场势均力敌的竞赛，最终结果可能难以预测，并且选举日可能无法得知最终结果。 Saagar分析了Nate Silver的民调预测模型，指出其对哈里斯的预测最初过于悲观，因为他假设她会在党代会后获得支持率提升。他认为，哈里斯和特朗普的支持率将保持在50-50左右，直到选举日。他还讨论了佐治亚州对所有选举日投票进行人工计票的决定，以及这可能会导致出现“红色海市蜃楼”的可能性。 Krystal讨论了进行民调的困难，以及民调结果可能存在偏差的原因。她还分析了《纽约时报》和NBC新闻的民调结果，指出两者都显示这是一场势均力敌的竞赛。她认为，许多摇摆选民直到选举前几周才会决定投票给谁，因此目前的民调结果并不能完全反映最终的选举结果。

Deep Dive

Chapters
New polls show a tight race between Trump and Harris. Trump shows strength in Sun Belt states, while Harris leads in some blue wall states. Betting markets and forecast models also reflect a close contest.
  • Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina according to NYT/Siena.
  • Harris leads or ties in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin according to NBC.
  • Nate Silver's model favors Harris slightly (51% to 48.6%).
  • Betting markets also show a tight race.

Shownotes Transcript

Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump surging in Sun Belt polls, Kamala babbles with Oprah, Trump rejects Kamala debate challenge, Mark Robinson staff revolts after leaked forum posts, Israel threatens all out Lebanon war.

 

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