We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
Oil Falls on Israel-Iran De-Escalation, Tesla Rolls Out the Robotaxi, & Trump Media’s Buyback Grift
2025/6/24
Prof G Markets
E
Ed Elson
与 Scott Galloway 合作主持《No Mercy / No Malice》播客，分析市场和政治事件。
R
Rebecca Babin
S
Scott Galloway
一位结合商业洞察和个人故事的畅销书作者、教授和企业家。
Ed Elson: 我注意到尽管美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级，但市场反应出乎意料地平静。黄金价格小幅上涨，股市也仅有小幅波动，而最令人惊讶的是，石油价格竟然大幅下跌。这与传统认知中，战争或地缘政治风险升高时，避险资产如黄金价格上涨，石油价格因供应担忧而上涨的预期完全相反。我认为这反映出市场可能认为冲突不会进一步升级，或者伊朗可能不会直接攻击能源基础设施。
Rebecca Babin: 我认为市场对伊朗可能采取的行动进行了重新评估。最初，市场担心伊朗会封锁霍尔木兹海峡，这将严重影响全球石油供应。但伊朗选择袭击军事基地而非能源设施，降低了这种风险。此外，市场也在考虑，攻击能源基础设施对伊朗的主要客户中国造成的伤害可能大于对美国的伤害。因此，市场降低了地缘政治风险溢价，导致石油价格下跌。不过，我仍然认为伊朗采取极端行动的可能性不能完全排除，只是降低了。
Deep Dive
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including attacks on nuclear sites and retaliatory strikes, oil prices fell more than 7%, defying expectations. Market reactions suggest a lower probability of Iran targeting energy infrastructure, and the investment community seems less concerned about an imminent World War III than social media suggests.
- Oil prices fell more than 7% despite US-Iran conflict
- Markets indicate lower probability of Iran targeting energy infrastructure
- Investment community less concerned about World War III than social media
Shownotes Transcript