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The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han

2025/2/13

Prof G Markets

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Alice Han

Ed Banter

Scott Galloway

一位结合商业洞察和个人故事的畅销书作者、教授和企业家。

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Scott Galloway: 我认为特朗普政府对进口铝和钢铁征收关税,可能更多是出于工会或监管机构的利益考虑,而非真正的经济战略。美国可能不希望减少钢铁进口,以保持一定的供应弹性。钢铁行业的工会力量非常强大,他们向两党都提供了大量的政治捐款,这可能影响了政策的制定。 Ed Banter: 特朗普的关税政策对美国国内的钢铁和铝业公司来说是个好消息,因为他们将拥有更大的定价权。然而,消费者将是最大的输家,因为关税会推高钢铁和铝的价格,进而导致房屋、汽车等产品的价格上涨。虽然关税听起来很“美国优先”,但最终会伤害美国自身,并可能导致通货膨胀。我认为这种做法得不偿失。 Alice Han: 我认为特朗普政府的贸易政策,特别是对中国征收关税,实际上是使用“锤子”而非“手术刀”来解决问题。这种一刀切的做法可能会适得其反。为了应对美国的关税,中国可能会采取贬值货币、实施更多财政刺激措施以及将其贸易转移到其他国家等措施。中国需要寻找替代市场,以应对美国和欧盟对中国产能过剩的担忧。总的来说,我认为中国需要更多的出口,因为其国内需求非常疲软。

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The discussion starts by analyzing the impact of Trump's 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. It examines who benefits (domestic metal companies) and who loses (international companies and consumers due to increased prices). The overall conclusion is that these tariffs hurt the US more than they help.

25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports
increased prices for houses and cars
inflation increase by 0.1%
hurts the US more than it helps

Shownotes Transcript

Scott and Ed open the show by discussing the aluminum and steel tariffs, Trump’s plan to close the carried interest loophole, and Elon Musk’s bid for OpenAI. Then Alice Han, China economist and director at Greenmantle, returns to the show to break down the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on China’s economy. She explains how China’s weak consumer environment is driving down prices domestically, weighs in on what the “Sputnik moment” of DeepSeek means for China’s place in the AI race, and offers her take on the country’s relationship with Elon Musk. Finally, Alice shares why she believes we’re entering a period of heightened geopolitical instability.

The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han 01:03:28 Share

Prof G Markets

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Shownotes Transcript

The State of Trade with China — ft. Alice Han