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cover of episode Buried by the Wall Street Crash (Classic)

Buried by the Wall Street Crash (Classic)

2025/4/25
logo of podcast Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
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Tim Harford
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我讲述了约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯和欧文·费雪两位经济学大师的故事。他们都曾试图通过投资来预测未来，但都因为1929年的华尔街股灾而遭受了巨大的经济损失。然而，他们的结局却大相径庭：凯恩斯最终依然富有并保持了声誉，而费雪却破产并名声受损。这其中的关键在于，凯恩斯能够改变自己的想法和投资策略，而费雪则固执己见，不愿改变。凯恩斯的成功源于他能够从错误中吸取教训，并不断调整自己的策略，而费雪的失败则源于他固守成见，不愿承认自己的错误。这个故事也体现了认知失调理论：人们为了避免认知失调，往往会否认显而易见的事实，并坚持自己的错误信念。 我分析了凯恩斯和费雪的性格和投资策略，以及他们对1929年股灾的不同反应。凯恩斯在早期投资失败后，能够及时调整策略，并最终取得成功。而费雪则因为过度的杠杆和固执的投资理念，导致其在股灾中损失惨重，最终破产。这个故事也引出了超级预测者的概念：超级预测者能够成功预测的关键在于他们愿意改变自己的想法，并从错误中吸取教训。

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Cautionary Tales returns with a new episode on May 2nd. Both of the world’s greatest economists, Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes, thought they could see into the future and make a killing on the stock market - and then both were wiped out by the Wall Street Crash. One died a pauper, the other millionaire. What does it take to bounce back from ruin? Oh... and UFOs.

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