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cover of episode The Data Detective
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Tim Harford
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Tim Harford 在本书中提出了理解数据的十条统计戒律，这些戒律并非严格的命令，而是基于经验总结出的经验法则，旨在帮助读者更清晰地思考统计数据，避免认知偏差。这些戒律涵盖了数据来源、数据标签、比较与上下文、算法与大数据集、官方统计数据等多个方面，强调了全面、批判性地思考数据的重要性。此外，Harford 认为理解数据的黄金法则就是保持好奇心，深入探究并提出问题。他通过研究表明，好奇心，特别是科学的好奇心，能够帮助人们抵制政治极化，更接近基于证据的观点。好奇心的人更乐于接受与自身预设观念相悖的信息，因为他们享受惊喜和意外。Harford 还探讨了信息差距理论，解释了好奇心的产生机制，以及如何通过激发人们的兴趣来有效传达复杂信息。他以史蒂芬·科尔伯特的喜剧节目和《Planet Money》播客为例，说明了幽默和故事叙述在提高观众知识水平方面的有效性。最后，Harford 强调了批判性思维和好奇心的结合，认为只有不断提出开放性的问题，才能更好地理解世界。

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Tim Harford discusses the importance of curiosity in understanding statistics, offering ten commandments to help navigate the numbers and charts we encounter daily.

Shownotes Transcript

Cautionary Tales' host Tim Harford has a new book - The Data Detective - setting out ten commandments for understanding the numbers, charts, graphs and statistics that bombard us every day. In this free extract, Tim explains his extra "golden" rule that allows us to observe all his other commandments - be curious. Enjoy.

Cautionary Tales returns February 26.

The Data Detective (Riverhead Books) is published in the US and Canada on February 2. The same book is available elsewhere under the title How to Make the World Add Up.

(Audio excerpted courtesy of Penguin Random House Audio from The Data Detective by Tim Harford, narrated by the author.)

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