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cover of episode The Dunning Kruger Hijack (and Other Criminally Stupid Acts)

The Dunning Kruger Hijack (and Other Criminally Stupid Acts)

2021/3/26
logo of podcast Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
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叙述者：埃塞俄比亚航空961航班劫机事件中，劫机者由于对飞机燃油和飞行距离的错误判断，导致了悲剧的发生。他们过于自信，没有意识到自己的无知，拒绝听取机长的专业建议，最终酿成大祸。这起事件完美地诠释了达克效应（Dunning-Kruger effect）的可怕之处，即能力不足的人往往无法意识到自己的能力不足，反而高估自己的能力。劫机者对飞行知识的匮乏和对自身判断的盲目自信，使得他们做出了一系列错误的决策，最终导致了灾难性的后果。事件中，机长Lael Abata是一位经验丰富的飞行员，他曾成功化解过两次劫机事件，但他这次面对的是一群对自身能力认知偏差的劫机者，他们的无知和自信给机长带来了巨大的挑战。 Tim Harford：达克效应并非只存在于个体层面，它在社会中也广泛存在。在政治极化、信息茧房等社会环境下，人们往往只信任与自己观点相同的人，这会阻碍信息的流动，从而加剧达克效应的影响。当人们拒绝倾听不同的声音，只相信自己认为正确的信息时，就会做出错误的判断和决策，最终可能导致严重的后果。#MeToo运动就是一个很好的例子，它揭示了社会中许多男性由于缺乏对女性遭遇的了解而无法意识到自己的行为造成的影响。达克效应的根本原因在于我们存在认知盲区，而大脑会自动填补这些盲区，导致我们无法意识到自己的不足。寻求建议是克服达克效应的有效方法，但前提是人们要能够意识到自己的不足，并愿意寻求帮助。 Tim Harford: 达克效应并非仅仅是愚蠢的人做出的愚蠢行为，聪明人也会犯同样的错误。关键在于我们都有认知盲区，而大脑会自动填补这些盲区，让我们无法察觉到自己的无知。MacArthur Wheeler的例子就是一个典型的案例，他相信柠檬汁可以让他隐形，这体现了他对自身能力的严重误判。在埃塞俄比亚航空961航班劫机事件中，劫机者也犯了同样的错误，他们对飞行知识的无知和对自身判断的盲目自信，最终导致了悲剧的发生。寻求外部的建议和反馈，是克服达克效应的关键，但前提是人们需要有足够的开放心态，愿意承认自己的不足，并从他人的经验中学习。

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This chapter introduces the Dunning-Kruger effect, explaining its origins through the story of MacArthur Wheeler and the research by David Dunning and Justin Kruger.

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The hijackers of flight 961 wanted its pilot to fly them to Australia - and wouldn't listen to his pleas that there simply wasn't enough fuel for the mammoth trip. What would cause them to totally disregard the advice of an expert when the stakes were so very high? The Dunning Kruger effect.

But being too stupid to recognise the limits of your knowledge isn't confined to such prize idiots - it's something we are all guilty of at times and has huge implications for society.

Starring Jeffrey Wright (Hunger Games, Westworld, and the Bond films) as Ethiopian Airlines captain Leul Abate.

Read more about Tim's work at http://timharford.com/)

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