We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode The Man Who Bet His House on a Pop Song - A Eurovision Tale

The Man Who Bet His House on a Pop Song - A Eurovision Tale

2023/5/12
logo of podcast Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Andrew Wright
T
Tim Harford
Topics
Tim Harford: 本节目讲述了Daniel Gould将房屋抵押贷款用于欧洲歌唱大赛赌博的故事，最终幸运地避免了损失，但随后却因癌症去世。故事展现了高风险赌博的惊险和人生的无常。 Andrew Wright: 作为Daniel Gould的朋友，我详细讲述了他的赌博策略，以及他如何利用历史知识和数据分析来预测比赛结果。他是一个典型的‘狐狸型思维’的赌徒，善于根据新信息调整策略，但最终也未能避免悲剧。Daniel 的故事也体现了‘刺猬型思维’在解释复杂问题时的局限性，以及关注自身健康的重要性。 Daniel Gould: (间接通过Andrew Wright和Tim Harford的讲述展现) Daniel Gould是一位经验丰富的欧洲歌唱大赛赌徒，他通过对历史数据、歌曲风格、观众喜好等多方面因素的分析来进行预测，并采取了高风险高回报的策略。他热爱生活，追求自由，最终却因未被发现的癌症英年早逝。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The Eurovision Song Contest is a significant cultural event in Europe, with countries taking it seriously as a source of national pride. It involves a complex voting system combining jury and public votes, and has political undertones.

Shownotes Transcript

You can gamble on horses or on the turn of a card - but Daniel Gould made a living betting on the outcome of the annual Eurovision Song Contest. Daniel made a profit because he studied the voting history of the competition, as well as the cultural and geo-political factors that predict which songs will triumph and which will score "nil point".    

In 2018, Daniel was so sure of his system of reducing the risk that he took out a loan on his home and bet it on Israel's song to win...  only to see the entry from Cyprus suddenly rocketing up the leader board. Was Daniel about to lose everything?

For a full list of sources used in this episode visit Tim Harford.com)

See omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.