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cover of episode Charlie McElligott on How Long the Stock Market Rally Can Go

Charlie McElligott on How Long the Stock Market Rally Can Go

2025/7/3
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Charlie McElligott: 我认为目前市场处于历史高位，这与年初的情况相比有些反直觉。当人们不希望世界毁灭时，往往会低估不太糟糕的结果所带来的影响。除了机械性流动和波动性因素外，2022年的通胀驱动型宏观熊市也值得关注。那一年，由于消费者的健康和紧张的就业市场，通货膨胀反而成为了企业盈利的催化剂。由于不确定性，企业没有增加研发或招聘支出，而是选择以前所未有的规模回购股票，这成为了股市需求的主要来源。人们又开始卖出波动性，这在债券不再是无风险资产的世界里，已成为一种新的固定收益形式。大量短期波动率的卖出导致交易商的伽马风险累积，从而压缩了结果的分布。聪明的营销人员通过出售价外看涨期权来获取溢价收入，但这种策略在市场上涨时可能会导致亏损。 Charlie McElligott: 交易者已经习惯了央行和政治家的干预，因此倾向于逢低买入和逢高卖出。去年8月2日和5日的市场表现是一个有趣的实验，8月2日劳动力市场出现裂缝的迹象，引发了人们对消费者崩溃的担忧。人们自以为是的判断往往会导致错误，最近的例子是特朗普的领子策略。特朗普认为自己有权打破美国80年来的现状，导致市场结果的先验分布发生变化。市场迅速认识到，特朗普政府在谈判中会出售看涨期权来为看跌期权提供资金。这种领子效应导致已实现波动率的压缩。客户普遍对滞胀结果持宏观悲观态度。企业为了不影响销量，不愿立即将价格上涨转嫁给消费者。许多最糟糕的结果都得到了缓解和妥协，市场开始上涨，这让那些预期看跌结果的人感到不安。曾经的左尾风险变成了右尾机会，但没有人为此做好准备。

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Despite numerous global challenges in 2025, the stock market reached record highs. This counterintuitive phenomenon is explained by several factors, including the underpricing of less-bad-than-feared scenarios, the health of the consumer and tight employment, and record-high corporate buybacks.
  • Record highs reached despite global challenges
  • Underpricing of less-bad-than-feared scenarios
  • Health of consumer and tight employment
  • Record-high corporate buybacks

Shownotes Transcript

Stocks plunged after the April 2 "Liberation Day," in one of the worst drawdowns in the market's history. Since then, however, we're basically back to all-time highs and things have been pretty calm in the market. On this episode, recorded live onstage at our June 26 event in New York, we speak to Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott, about what's been driving the rally. He says he's seen "relentless" selling of volatility as investors who sold back in April chase the rally. That's culminated in some weird market dynamics. The question, of course, is how long this can continue and what it would take to unsettle things from here.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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