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cover of episode David Woo: What Trump Started is Worse Than a Trade War

David Woo: What Trump Started is Worse Than a Trade War

2025/4/24
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David Woo: 我认为当前的中美冲突远不止一场贸易战,而是一场旨在维护美国霸权的经济战争。这场战争的目标并非单纯的贸易平衡,而是通过经济打击来削弱甚至摧毁中国经济,以阻止中国对美国霸权地位的挑战。特朗普政府中强硬的对华派,即所谓的“中国鹰派”,在很大程度上主导了这一政策。他们认为,只有通过经济手段重创中国,才能有效阻止中国在科技和经济领域对美国的威胁。145%的关税并非简单的贸易措施,而是经济上的“谋杀”,旨在切断中国企业的所有退路,迫使中国经济陷入困境。 我研究了特朗普政府与中国达成的第一阶段贸易协议,我认为这是一个在当时非常成功的双赢协议。然而,拜登政府将美中竞争视为零和博弈,而特朗普政府,尽管他喜欢达成交易,却在对华政策上犯下了一系列错误,最终导致“中国鹰派”掌握了对华政策的主动权,使得局势不断升级。 美国消费者目前尚未感受到关税带来的实质性影响,因为企业通过囤积库存来缓冲价格上涨。然而,随着库存的消耗,关税的影响将不可避免地显现,导致价格大幅上涨和商品短缺。特朗普政府低估了关税的通胀效应,他们错误地认为,就像第一次贸易战一样,这次关税也不会导致严重的通胀。然而,这次关税旨在堵上中国企业规避关税的所有后路,因此通胀效应将更加显著。中国政府甚至鼓励关税带来的价格上涨,希望以此迫使美国政府让步。 我认为,特朗普政府在乌克兰问题上的失败,也加剧了其对华政策的强硬立场。由于在乌克兰问题上没有取得任何进展,特朗普政府需要在对华政策上展现强硬姿态,以维持其国内政治地位。 当前的中美关系已经超越了“斗鸡博弈”的阶段,而进入“消耗战”的阶段。双方都在承受持续的经济损失,但都在等待对方先让步。中国正在为这场持久战做准备,而特朗普政府则试图通过与习近平直接对话来解决问题,但我对此表示怀疑。 我每天都在进行一项关于中美关系的民调,结果显示,中国民众对美国的敌意正在迅速增加。这种敌意加剧了中美两国之间的不信任感,使得达成协议变得更加困难。 总而言之,我认为特朗普政府的对华政策是一系列错误的决策导致的结果,这些错误的决策不仅损害了美国自身的利益,也加剧了全球经济的不确定性。

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For the most part, Americans haven't felt much pain yet from the tariffs that Donald Trump introduced (and then partially walked back) on April 2. The damage is highly visible in financial markets, but for the moment, shelves remain stocked, inflation measures have remained muted, and there hasn't been a significant wave of layoffs in official data. But according to our guest, real pain is coming. And what's going down is worse than a trade war. On this episode, we speak with the one and only David Woo, now the founder of David Woo Unbound. He also previously served as the Head of Global Rates, Foreign Exchange, and EM Fixed Income and Economics Research at Bank of America. He says that the administration has absolutely nothing to show for its initial months in office on any front. And he says this isn't a game of chicken, where one side can blink and avoid disaster. Instead, we're seeing a "war of attrition" where damage is being done to both the US and Chinese economies as we speak. As he sees it, the China hawks in the administration have been in control, and have the impulse to obliterate the Chinese economy, which makes the situation more than just a so-called trade war. He discusses the political, market, and real economy implications of this dramatic escalation. Read more:Trump U-Turns on Powell, China Follow Dire Economic Warnings)A Bad Peace in Ukraine Carries Global Risks) Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News) subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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