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cover of episode Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability

Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability

2025/1/30
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Odd Lots
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J
Joe Wiesenthal
L
Lee Everett
T
Tracy Allaway
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Joe Wiesenthal: 我关注到一个重要的议题,那就是通货膨胀,其中一个关键因素是住房成本。虽然近期的租金上涨速度有所放缓,但由于美联储加息导致新建多户住宅数量下降,供应紧张的情况可能会在2026年再次出现。 Tracy Allaway: 我也注意到租金上涨,这与整体通货膨胀息息相关。虽然租金增速有所放缓,但我们也需要关注潜在的风险,例如美联储加息对住房开发的影响。 Lee Everett: 我认为压力遍及市场各方。大型房地产公司虽然能够应对高利率环境,但其投资组合估值已大幅下降。与此同时,住房需求却创纪录地高涨,而供应方面却受到了严重影响。这使得市场状况变得非常独特。我们还看到,一些规模较小、经验不足的房地产公司正面临融资困难,而那些信誉良好的公司则能够继续获得融资。市场正在经历“优胜劣汰”的过程,一些公司由于资产估值过高、未履行合同等原因,正面临诉讼和调查。 Lee Everett: 衡量多户住宅市场健康状况的两个主要指标是租金增长率和资本化率。未来两三年内,多户住宅市场将从租户友好型市场转变为房东友好型市场,主要原因是供应减少。2024年和2025年将有超过一百万套住房投入市场,但供应高峰期将在未来六个月内到来,到2026年底,大多数主要市场的供应量将低于上一个周期。与此同时,美国租房需求持续强劲,供应减少将导致租金上涨。多户住宅建设需要达到一定的投资回报率,而高昂的建设成本和利率使得租金必须保持高位才能实现这一目标。联邦政府对可负担住房的资金支持对于降低租金至关重要,如果这些资金减少,将会导致可负担住房供应短缺。联邦政府对可负担住房资金的支持减少将主要影响大型社区投资项目和专门建造的可负担住房项目。建筑工人中约有20%是非法劳工,他们的驱逐出境将导致劳动力短缺,推高建筑成本和租金。除了利率外,保险费用的上涨也是影响多户住宅建设成本的重要因素。大型房地产公司由于能够分散风险,能够获得更有利的保险费率,而小型房地产公司则面临更高的保险成本。到2026年,租赁市场将再次对投资者有利,并可能重现上一个周期的市场状况。由于婴儿潮一代不愿放弃他们的住房,千禧一代和Z世代难以获得他们想要的住房,导致高收入人群选择居住在以前被认为质量较低的住房中。由于优质地段的住房供应减少,这些地段的租金将会上涨。多户住宅市场将出现“优胜劣汰”,小型开发商将被大型开发商收购或淘汰。由于优质地段的住房供应不足,人们将被迫居住在距离市中心更远的地方,通勤时间将增加。由于市中心优质地段的住房价格高昂,人们开始向郊区迁移,导致郊区市场发展迅速。尽管租金上涨,但由于租客收入的增加,租金收入比在2018年实际上有所下降。联邦政府难以控制地方政府的建筑审批和费用,因此难以有效地促进住房建设。“是的”运动在一些地区取得了一定进展,但在优质地段建设新房仍然面临挑战。为了保护信贷额度,债务基金正在积极处理不良资产,避免出现大规模违约。加州野火将对建筑劳动力市场产生重大影响,并推高建筑成本。住房和城市发展部(HUD)的资金对于灾后重建至关重要,如果这些资金减少,将会严重影响重建工作。

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Shownotes Transcript

One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you're buying or renting, housing is very expensive. Thankfully, over the last year, some of the increases we've seen in rent prices have slowed significantly, and we're not too far away from the pre-Covid pace. The bad news is that this might not last. A confluence of factors is coming together that may cause yet another shock to housing affordability. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lee Everett, the head of research and strategy at the multi-family operator Cortland. He talks about how the increase in interest rates caused new development of apartment buildings to plunge, meaning supply will be increasingly scarce again in 2026. Then add in deportations of construction labor, soaring insurance costs, plus industry consolidation, and you have the recipe for another big shock to housing affordability coming quickly down the pike.

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