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cover of episode Is There an Extremely Simple Fix for Affordable Housing?

Is There an Extremely Simple Fix for Affordable Housing?

2025/3/13
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Odd Lots

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Kevin Erdman
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Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway: 住房成本是通货膨胀和生活成本的主要因素,长期以来一直是一个难以解决的问题。尽管两党都承认住房供应不足,但有效的解决方案仍然难以捉摸。 Kevin Erdman: 金融危机后,监管机构过度收紧了贷款标准,这导致了当前的住房短缺。这种收紧不仅影响了沿海城市,也波及了全国各地。数百万家庭因此无法获得抵押贷款融资,导致房屋建设减少。低收入家庭尤其受到影响,因为他们无法获得足够的抵押贷款,导致房屋价格下降到低于新建房屋成本的水平。私营部门也无法有效解决这个问题,因为银行和抵押贷款机构面临比房利美和房地美更严格的监管责任。 为了解决这个问题,应该放松金融危机后的过度收紧的贷款标准,恢复到2008年之前的标准。这将鼓励房屋建筑商再次建造入门级房屋,满足低收入家庭的需求。然而,这需要与解决地方层面的分区问题相结合,以增加住房供应。此外,美国社会需要重新思考住房的意义,是作为财富增值工具还是作为满足居住需求的商品。 Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway: 即使放松了贷款标准,也不一定能立即增加房屋供应,因为房屋建筑商可能仍然不愿冒险建设入门级房屋。金融危机后,可调整利率抵押贷款(ARM)几乎消失了,这可能是导致住房供应不足的一个因素,因为银行在发放贷款时缺乏灵活性。此外,美国社会对住房的定位也存在问题,是作为财富增值工具还是作为满足居住需求的商品,这需要进一步的讨论。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores Kevin Erdmann's theory that post-GFC regulatory overcorrection in lending standards eliminated the starter home market segment, contributing to the current housing shortage. The discussion examines the consequences of this tightening on home building, prices, and migration patterns. The role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in perpetuating this issue is also analyzed.
  • Over-tightened lending standards post-GFC eliminated the starter home market segment.
  • Coastal cities' restrictive zoning policies exacerbated the housing shortage.
  • The counter-cyclical migration pattern is a consequence of the housing shortage.
  • The price drop in existing homes was income-correlated, making new home construction unprofitable at the low end.

Shownotes Transcript

Housing affordability remains one of the single greatest sources of economic stress. Even if inflation measures were to come down, the simple cost of shelter is a huge burden on a wide swathe of the population. Hardly anyone disagrees with the idea of increasing supply, but this is easier said than done. There isn't a lot of spare construction capacity and the political fights over liberalizing zoning are tedious and slow. On this episode, we speak with Kevin Erdmann, a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, who proposes a simple idea. He argues that after the Great Financial Crisis, regulators over-tightened lending standards, and in so doing, took out the entire "starter home" segment of the new housing market. He says that if Fannie and Freddie were to liberalize their lending standards, homebuilders would be incentivized to build more homes that cater to people with lower incomes and lower FICO scores, essentially re-creating a whole slice of the new home market that's disappeared over the last 15 years. Read More:US Homebuilders Face a Supply Chain Snarl From Tariff Battles)US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.88%, Lowest Level This Year) Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News) subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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