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cover of episode Lots More on a Massive, Historical, Stagflationary Shock

Lots More on a Massive, Historical, Stagflationary Shock

2025/4/4
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Odd Lots

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People
J
Joe
面临上水汽车贷款,寻求多种解决方案以减轻财务负担。
T
Tom Orlik
T
Tracy
考虑多样化投资以减少风险,特别是当持有大量单一股票时。
Topics
Tracy: 特朗普政府新推出的关税政策规模和范围之大令人震惊,其影响有待观察,市场反应强烈。 目前尚不清楚全球贸易体系能否承受如此高额的关税,这可能导致美国经济增长放缓,甚至衰退,同时通货膨胀可能加剧。 特朗普政府似乎并不在意市场反应,这与以往美国政治有所不同。 Tom Orlik: 美国与中国的贸易关系发生了根本性变化,美国需要重新评估其与中国的贸易策略。 根据全球经济模型的预测,高额关税将对全球贸易体系造成严重冲击,尤其对中美贸易和欧美贸易。 此次关税冲击对通货膨胀的影响存在高度不确定性,与特朗普第一任期的情况可能大相径庭,这次冲击可能更为严重,可能导致滞胀。 美联储面临着在应对经济衰退和通货膨胀之间的两难选择,其决策将受到多种因素的影响。 未来需要关注其他国家的反应、特朗普政府的政策调整以及相关的经济指标,以判断局势发展。 要实现美国制造业的复兴,需要克服诸多挑战,包括高工资、基础设施不足以及供应链跨境等问题。 Joe: 我赞成为了成为技术和经济最先进的国家之一而承受短期痛苦。 但我对政府能否成功地将这些关税转化为美国制造业的复兴表示怀疑。

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Shownotes Transcript

On Wednesday, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs against almost every country in the world. The size and scope was far beyond what anyone was anticipating, causing markets to subsequently plunge. But what's next? Could it work out for the US? Will we see a spike in inflation? Will the global trading system continue to operate? On this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, the chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, on the historical nature of this stagflationary shock, and what happens to the US and global economies if these numbers remain in place.Read More:Economists Slash US Growth, Boost Inflation Forecasts on Tariffs)Germany and France Push for More Aggressive Tariff Response)

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