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cover of episode Lots More on What's Going On in Iran's Markets

Lots More on What's Going On in Iran's Markets

2025/6/27
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Maciej Wojtal
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Maciej Wojtal: 伊朗的经济规模虽然小于土耳其，但其潜力巨大，特别是在自然资源方面。土耳其缺乏自然资源，而伊朗有潜力发展到与土耳其相似的非商品GDP规模。伊朗的天然气和石油资源甚至超过沙特阿拉伯，但经济却远不如沙特发达，这表明伊朗经济被严重低估。由于制裁等原因，伊朗经济发展滞后，但其潜力被低估了十倍。我观察到，过去一周由于互联网中断，外界很难了解伊朗的情况，股市也没有开市。即使在市场关闭期间，我仍然可以通过Telegram聊天和加密货币交易所追踪伊朗里亚尔的汇率。战前1美元兑换83万里亚尔，战争期间升至95万里亚尔，停火后回落至85万里亚尔。我认为，在伊朗这样的国家，货币市场15%的波动是正常的。总的来说，我认为伊朗的经济规模潜力巨大，可能达到土耳其或沙特阿拉伯的水平，关键在于某种重置事件的发生。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Iran's economy is often misunderstood. While it is geographically large and has a sizable population, its economic output is significantly smaller than what its size would suggest, mainly due to sanctions. This underdevelopment is a key factor in understanding Iran's market dynamics.
  • Iran is the 37th largest economy by nominal GDP, comparable in size to Denmark.
  • Iran is the 17th largest country geographically and has a population similar to Turkey's.
  • Iran's economy is about five times smaller than Turkey's, despite having significant natural resources (oil and gas reserves larger than Saudi Arabia's).
  • Sanctions have significantly hampered Iran's economic development.

Shownotes Transcript

Iran is a huge country with a sizable stock market. And yet, years of sanctions and other restrictions mean it’s tough to even look up its stock prices (much less invest there.) In this episode, we catch up with Maciej Wojtal, CEO and CIO of AmtelonCapital, an Amsterdam-based fund that specializes in Iranian stocks. We talk about what the past week has been like for the market, what he’s hearing from people on the ground in Tehran, plus disruptions to businesses and oil. We talk about how Iranian investors handle major geopolitical risk and the outlook from here.Read more: Iran’s Khamenei Says US Intervention in War Achieved Nothing)

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