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cover of episode Lots More on Why Neil Dutta Is Sticking With His Recession Call

Lots More on Why Neil Dutta Is Sticking With His Recession Call

2025/4/11
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Neil Dutta
领导宏观经济研究，专注于分析美国经济和全球趋势的经济学家。
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Neil Dutta: 我仍然坚持我的经济衰退预测，因为市场面临的根本问题并没有消失。我的经济衰退预测并非基于NBER的定义，而是基于将经济观点转化为市场预测。即使不是技术意义上的衰退，潜在的市场问题依然存在。劳动力收入放缓、美联储不妥协、抵押贷款利率高企、房地产市场疲软以及州和地方政府削减开支等问题依然存在，这些都支持我的衰退预测。尽管关税有所缓解，但贸易紧张局势依然高涨，这会对市场造成问题。关税的实际影响（而非不确定性）会影响投资，因为企业会根据实际增长情况做出反应。标普500指数像“放屁币”一样交易，这反映了不确定性，并会影响融资成本、资本投资环境和美国经济的财富效应。在当前的宏观环境下，股市扮演着积极的信息传递者的角色，企业会将其视为宏观风险的聚合器。股市并非经济的全部，但它与经济息息相关。除了老年护理和医疗保健领域，美国经济中几乎没有其他主要行业正在增加员工数量。关税上涨可能会推高商品价格，导致家庭预算向商品倾斜，从而减少服务消费，并对服务业就业产生负面影响。美联储的政策表明，他们正在等待增长状况恶化后再降息，其应对关税通胀影响的方案是通货紧缩。 Joe Weisenthal: (与Neil Dutta的讨论和提问) Tracy: (与Neil Dutta的讨论和提问)

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On Wednesday, President Trump put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for every country except China. The market, which had been in a state of deep panic, surged massively on the announcement. But then on Thursday, stocks sold off hard again as people woke up to the reality of massive tariffs on China and the new baseline tariffs on everyone else. Plus, even before all this tariff drama, there were plenty of reasons to be anxious about the US economy. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research. He explains all the moving parts and why he's sticking with his call for a downturn this year.Mentioned on the show:Neil Dutta Sees Rising Risks to the Labor Market)Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking Markets)

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