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cover of episode Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order

Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order

2025/4/21
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Odd Lots
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Martin Wolf
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Tracey Alloway
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Tracey Alloway: 我认为当前的全球化进程与早些年人们的预期大相径庭，许多多边协议的希望破灭了。当前的经济环境可能比全球金融危机更严重，因为它可能对世界产生更持久的影响。 Joe Weisenthal: 我也认为当前的经济形势与20世纪30年代存在一些相似之处，但处理方式不同，导致结果迥异。 Martin Wolf: 全球金融危机导致美国共和党发生转变，最终促成了特朗普的崛起。尽管美国经济表现良好，但其经济政策却发生了革命性的变化，这令人费解。尽管美国经济富裕，但民众对相对地位和安全感的担忧导致了民粹主义的兴起。美国政府对美元作为储备货币的立场自相矛盾，既认为其是负担，又想维持其主导地位。美元作为单一国家发行的全球货币，会导致显著的经济不稳定性。美元作为全球货币赋予美国巨大的权力和经济操作空间，但同时也带来一些问题。英国的生产力问题和实际工资问题非常严重，其原因尚不清楚。生产力增长与实际工资增长高度相关，英国生产力增长的停滞导致了实际工资增长的停滞。美国对欧洲的贸易政策冲击可能促使欧洲进行更紧密的财政整合或增加财政支出。尽管欧洲面临危机，但其内部的碎片化和缺乏统一性阻碍了其做出重大改变。美国计划在90天内与众多国家签署双边贸易协议的想法是荒谬的。各国与美国达成贸易协议的意愿取决于对美国能否信守承诺的信任。美国与其他国家谈判贸易协议的真正目的是促使全球与中国脱钩。在现代经济中，汇率对生产力布局的影响力有限。美国缺乏建设基础设施的能力并非由于汇率问题，而是由于其政策选择。国际清算银行并不秘密统治世界，比尔德伯格会议也不是阴谋组织。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The hosts discuss the changing perceptions towards the U.S. and the feeling that international relations degrees have become irrelevant. They introduce Martin Wolf as the perfect guest to discuss the future of globalization and the current state of Europe-US relationships.
  • The hosts reflect on the shift from hopes for multilateral agreements to bilateral agreements, accompanied by insults.
  • Martin Wolf is introduced as a chief economics commentator at the FT and author of a book on globalization.

Shownotes Transcript

Martin Wolf has been called one of the world's most important economics commentators, and has for decades written in columns and his own books about the evolution of the global economy, chronicling the rise of globalization and the subsequent pushback to liberal trade. And he's had a lot to write about in recent weeks. President Trump's unveiling of sweeping tariffs against pretty much every single US trading partner has not only roiled global markets, but is shaking up international politics as well. Countries around the world are now struggling to understand exactly what the Trump administration is trying to achieve, how far it will go in terms of its political and economic isolationism, and how they should we respond. On this episode we speak with Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, about what Trump's reordering of global trade means for the world, how Europe and China might respond, and the origins of the US administration's economic discontent.Read More: Trump’s Tariffs and China Collide to Shock the $115 Trillion Global Economy)What’s Left of Globalization Without the US?)

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