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cover of episode Philip Lane on the Big Problems Facing the Euro-zone Economy

Philip Lane on the Big Problems Facing the Euro-zone Economy

2025/2/7
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Philip Lane: 我认为投资者和消费者计划中已经考虑了关税的投机因素,但欧洲央行尚未将具体的关税方案纳入基准预测。我们会持续评估贸易政策的变化,并在获得更多细节后调整政策。全球贸易体系中引入摩擦肯定会对产出产生负面影响,虽然企业会采取措施缓解关税带来的影响,但总体而言,关税对产出是不利的。关税对通胀的影响不确定,因为涨价的进口商品会带来上行压力,但全球经济疲软则会带来下行压力。因此,我们认为关税对产出构成下行风险,但对通胀的影响尚不确定,将关注经济影响并观察通胀的实际发展,而不是预先采取非常强硬的立场。

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The ECB considers the impact of potential tariffs on investor and consumer behavior, reflected in sentiment indices. While detailed tariff scenarios have been analyzed, incorporating them into the baseline forecast awaits specifics. The effects on inflation are uncertain, with potential upward pressure from more expensive imports offset by disinflationary forces from weaker demand.
  • ECB considers tariff speculation's impact on investor and consumer behavior
  • Detailed tariff scenarios analyzed but not yet in baseline forecast
  • Effects on inflation are uncertain; upward pressure from more expensive imports could be offset by weaker demand

Shownotes Transcript

There's a pretty widespread recognition that the EU is facing a bunch of economic challenges right now. Growth has been slowing and, as in many places, there's been post-pandemic inflation. But there are other issues too, including a sense that Europe is falling behind when it comes to key technologies like AI and semiconductors. There's also an ongoing energy crisis and the recent threat of tariffs from the US. So how is the European Central Bank evaluating and responding to these cyclical and structural challenges? How do one-off risks affect the direction of monetary policy? We speak with Philip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, about how the central bank is thinking about all these things.

Read More:Trump’s Naughty List Could Put EU Cars, Machinery in Tariff Crosshairs)ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines)

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