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cover of episode The Treasury Payment System Elon Musk Now Has Access To

The Treasury Payment System Elon Musk Now Has Access To

2025/2/5
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Odd Lots
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Joe Wiesenthal
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Nathan Tankus
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Nathan Tankus: 我认为美国财政部财政服务局是美国联邦政府支付系统的核心,负责处理大部分政府支付,包括税款退款和社会保障金等。这个系统极其复杂,依赖于过时的COBOL系统和经验丰富的程序员。任何对其的修改或操作都可能导致灾难性的后果。 我了解到马斯克的团队获得了该系统的读写权限,这让我感到非常担忧。即使是只读权限,也能访问敏感数据,例如社保号码和医疗信息,并可能被用来重构系统代码。马斯克声称要打击欺诈性支付,但这并非财政服务局的职责。识别不当支付应由各行政部门内部控制部门负责,而非财政服务局。 如果该系统崩溃,没有应急预案,支付将无法进行。关于政府支出控制权,存在国会和行政部门之间的法律争议,即所谓的“扣留”问题。根据美国宪法,国会拥有控制财政权,总统无权随意停止国会已批准的支出。 目前,市场对该系统潜在风险的定价不足,这让我非常担忧。 Joe Wiesenthal: 马斯克团队对财政部支付系统的访问权限引发了巨大的争议,这涉及到敏感数据的安全性和潜在的法律风险。我们还需要进一步了解马斯克团队的最终目标以及他们对该系统进行操作的具体方式。 此外,市场似乎低估了该系统潜在的风险,这与之前的债务上限危机类似。市场往往在问题发生后才会做出反应,而在此之前,他们倾向于认为一切都会好转。然而,一旦支付系统出现问题,其后果将是灾难性的。 Tracy Alloway: 我认为有两个主要的问题需要关注。首先,马斯克团队对如此敏感数据的访问权限是前所未有的,这令人担忧。其次,我毫不怀疑,破坏这个系统将很容易,因为它实际上是整个经济运行的命脉。 我们还需要进一步了解马斯克团队的最终目标。此外,市场对该风险的忽视也令人担忧。这让人想起特朗普政府时期,评级机构曾警告美国信用评级可能面临风险。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter introduces the topic of Elon Musk and his team gaining access to the Bureau of Fiscal Service within the US Treasury Department. It raises questions about the implications of this access, the efficiency of government operations, and the potential risks involved.
  • Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) gained access to the Bureau of Fiscal Service.
  • Questions arise about the extent of DOGE's influence and the potential for unilateral actions.
  • The chapter sets the stage for a deeper dive into the payment system's intricacies.

Shownotes Transcript

Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have gained access to a unit within the Treasury Department called the Bureau of Fiscal Service. But what does this unit actually do? How critical of a role does it play in the operations of government, and potentially, financial markets? On this episode, we speak with Nathan Tankus, the author of the Notes On The Crises) newsletter. He explains both the technical aspect of this office, as well as the legal questions surrounding impoundment and the ability of the executive branch to cut off payments that have been previously authorized by Congress. We also talk about the operational risks and the potential disaster scenario should this system — which has been built in COBOL over decades — go down.

Read More: US Treasury Brings In Two Members From Musk’s DOGE Team)

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