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cover of episode This Is How Electricity Rates Are Actually Set

This Is How Electricity Rates Are Actually Set

2025/1/9
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Odd Lots

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People
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作,提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
L
Lon Huber
T
Traci Alloway
Topics
Lon Huber: 我是杜克能源公司定价和客户解决方案高级副总裁。电力费率的制定是一个复杂的过程,需要在满足客户需求、覆盖成本和激励投资之间取得平衡。合适的费率结构对于应对可再生能源的增长和基础设施成本至关重要。电力费率包含大量固定基础设施成本,即使能源使用减少,这些成本也不会减少。可再生能源主要抵消的是燃料成本,而燃料成本只是电力费率中的一小部分。许多可再生能源项目的前期资本支出很高,这会对费率造成上行压力。电力公司需要在满足当前能源需求和进行长期资本投资之间取得平衡。电池技术的进步正在改变可再生能源的经济性,但长期储能技术仍有待突破。解决长期储能问题需要技术突破,目前需要多种能源资源共同运作以确保可靠性。目前的电力市场结构难以同时优化核电和分布式可再生能源。不同的电力市场结构(重组市场和垂直整合市场)对电力公司和客户的影响不同。容量市场旨在通过向发电机提供补贴来鼓励大型基础设施投资,但如何确定合适的补贴金额是一个难题。虚拟电厂(或分布式电力网络)通过协调分布式能源资源来模拟集中式发电厂,但其发展仍处于早期阶段。Duke Energy 已经拥有并协调了超过一百万个联网设备,用于需求响应。为新的工业项目(如电池厂)提供电力连接的时间取决于市场结构和地点的准备情况。在垂直整合的市场中,电力公司可以与客户合作,找到合适的场地并建设基础设施,以加快连接过程。大型变压器的生产周期长,限制了电力系统的扩张速度。电力公司通过行业合作来应对变压器短缺等挑战。数据中心对电力系统的需求远大于一般的制造业企业,给电力公司带来了新的挑战,需要在清洁能源目标和经济可行性之间取得平衡。电力公司可以使用智能合同和关税来管理数据中心等大型客户的连接,以保护所有客户的利益。净计量制度正在许多主要市场中进行改革,以反映其对电网的价值。评估太阳能等可再生能源项目的成本效益需要考虑其减少碳排放的成本。电力系统需要各种规模的可再生能源,包括分布式和集中式能源。新的低成本发电资源(如核电)会改变电网的调度顺序,导致成本较高的发电资源减少发电。电力费率的设计需要考虑不同客户类别、系统资产类型以及投资回收等因素。电力公司需要从客户那里收取足够的资金来覆盖投资,并确保其信用评级。先进的计量技术使得更准确的电力定价成为可能。由于电力基础设施是固定的,因此安装太阳能板的客户所获得的折扣是由其他客户承担的。 Traci Alloway: 可再生能源解决方案各有优缺点,包括高昂的资本投资、间歇性以及净计量客户对非净计量客户的补贴。电力费率中燃料成本只是很小的一部分,大部分成本是固定基础设施成本。增加太阳能发电并不会显著降低电力价格,因为固定基础设施成本才是主要成本。 Joe Weisenthal: 德克萨斯州的电力市场结构易于接入,但缺乏对备用产能的保障支付。目前的电力市场结构难以激励对核电等高昂前期成本的投资。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why hasn't the increase in renewable energy led to lower electricity prices for everyone?

Renewable energy primarily offsets fuel costs, which are a smaller portion of the electricity bill. The majority of costs are tied to fixed infrastructure like power lines, power plants, and maintenance. Additionally, renewables often require significant upfront capital investments, which can put upward pressure on rates despite long-term fuel savings.

What is the role of regulators in setting electricity prices?

Regulators, often part of public utilities commissions, scrutinize utility filings to ensure fair pricing. They review investments, operations, and returns on equity for investors. Utilities must justify their revenue requirements, and regulators balance the interests of consumers, utilities, and investors, often in quasi-judicial proceedings.

How does Duke Energy balance its responsibilities to customers and investors?

Duke Energy operates under a franchise model, ensuring reliable and affordable power while maintaining infrastructure. It must balance long-term investments in infrastructure with the need to provide returns to investors. This involves setting rates that cover costs while ensuring economic vitality for the communities it serves.

What is the 'utility death spiral' and how does it relate to solar panels?

The 'utility death spiral' refers to a scenario where customers with solar panels reduce their electricity purchases, shifting fixed infrastructure costs to non-solar customers. This can lead to higher rates for non-solar users, potentially driving more customers to adopt solar, exacerbating the issue.

How do utilities handle the growing demand from data centers?

Data centers, especially those supporting AI, can demand gigawatts of power, significantly impacting grid capacity. Utilities must plan for this load growth, often through integrated resource plans. Tariffs and smart contracting are used to manage risks, ensuring data centers contribute to infrastructure costs even if their usage fluctuates.

What are the challenges of integrating renewables into the grid?

Renewables are intermittent, requiring backup generation or storage during low production periods. This can lead to the need for dual systems—renewables for favorable weather and fossil fuels for backup. Additionally, renewables often require significant upfront investments, which can offset their long-term fuel savings.

How do utilities set electricity rates for different customer classes?

Utilities calculate a revenue requirement to cover investments, operations, and returns for investors. This amount is then allocated across customer classes based on their energy usage and load profiles. Rates are designed to recover costs while sending appropriate price signals to encourage efficient energy use.

What is a capacity market and how does it work?

A capacity market provides payments to energy producers to ensure they are available to meet peak demand, regardless of daily market conditions. This incentivizes investment in infrastructure, as producers receive payments even when energy prices are low, ensuring grid reliability during high-demand periods.

How does Duke Energy manage the transition to clean energy?

Duke Energy balances immediate energy needs with long-term investments in clean energy, often involving regulators, consumer advocates, and policymakers. It integrates renewables, storage, and nuclear into its grid planning, ensuring reliability while meeting clean energy goals and managing costs for customers.

What is the impact of net metering on electricity costs?

Net metering allows solar panel owners to receive credits for feeding energy into the grid, reducing their bills. However, the fixed infrastructure costs are then redistributed to non-solar customers, potentially raising their rates. This has led to reforms in many markets to better align costs with grid usage.

Chapters
Despite the increase in renewable energy sources, electricity prices haven't dropped significantly due to the high proportion of fixed infrastructure costs in the electricity bill and the high upfront capital expenses of many renewable energy technologies. Fuel expenses are only a smaller part of the overall cost, and renewables primarily offset this smaller portion.
  • Fixed infrastructure costs (power plants, power lines, etc.) constitute a significant portion of electricity bills.
  • Renewable energy sources mainly offset fuel expenses, a smaller component of the total cost.
  • High upfront capital expenses of renewables can increase rates despite long-term fuel savings.

Shownotes Transcript

Utilities in the US have a couple big jobs to do. On the one hand, they need to deliver affordable and reliable power to their customers. On the other hand, they also need to maintain and upgrade huge amounts of fixed infrastructure. Balancing those two jobs is getting more complicated thanks to America's aging electricity grid and the shift towards renewables. So how are big utilities squaring those two objectives? How do they decide how much money they need to fund new capital investment? How do they decide which customer pays what rate? And what role do regulators play in all these discussions? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lon Huber, senior vice president of pricing and customer solutions at Duke Energy, one of the largest utilities in the US. We talk about why the ramp-up in renewable energy hasn't led to lower electricity prices for everyone, why fuel is ultimately the most marginal cost of electricity generation, and how utilities are handling booming demand from data centers.

Read More:AI Needs So Much Power, It's Making Yours Worse)UK Set to Spend £1.8 Billion as Wind Power Overwhelms Grid)

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