Shopping in the Social Media Age | 4
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Wondery Plus subscribers can binge all episodes of Business Wars Disney Under Siege early and ad-free right now. Join Wondery Plus in the Wondery app or on Apple Podcasts. $998 billion. That's the amount of holiday spending the National Retail Federation projected for this season. Forecasters are describing this period, which runs from November 1st through December 31st, as a kind of return to pre-pandemic normalcy.

Consumers aren't in the pandemic shopping frenzy anymore, but wage growth has outpaced inflation, which retailers hope will push spending online and in person. The Federation predicts 2.5 to 3.5 percent sales growth over last year. And in an effort to ensure that this season meets those expectations, well, you probably saw a rash of emails, texts, mailers, and in-store holiday decor earlier than ever. In fact, one of our guests put out a holiday gift guide on October 3rd.

We're going to talk about all that. Plus, as TikTok's influence continues to expand, social media is a huge factor in what we buy and how we buy it. There are a bunch of like cool girl Christmas gift ideas all under or around $50. But it's that time of year and this is a boyfriend approved gift guide. Last year when I posted my gift guide, it got over a million views and the prices of vintage calendars on eBay skyrocketed by about $100. So let's see what happens this year.

We wanted to dig into some trends in consumer behavior and how companies are responding to meet demand. So we're talking all things holiday shopping today and the repercussions for the American economy. I'm joined by Jordan Holman, a business reporter covering the retail industry and consumerism for The New York Times, and Kitty Guo, a writer for New York magazine's The Strategist, covering beauty, fashion, and gifts. All that's coming up.

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From Wondery, I'm David Brown, and this is Shopping in the Social Media Age for Business Wars. Jordan Holman, what's the best gift you've ever given? What about the best gift you've ever received? So I would say the best gift I've ever received was when I was like four or five. My parents gave me a Fisher-Price dollhouse for Christmas that I used all of the time. I love that dollhouse.

Everyone's got one of those special gifts that they remember from when they were four or five, you know. So yours was the Fisher Price dollhouse. What about the best gift you've ever given?

Well, when I think about that, one of the best gifts I would say I gave my parents was a few years ago during the pandemic. I went on Etsy and I got this handcrafted wooden plaque of the city of Chicago where we're from. And I got it personalized to put a little star on the neighborhood where we're from. And it was like part of...

30 years of them being in Chicago, but then also an anniversary gift for them. And so I see it anytime I come home and I'm home right now. So it's hanging up and I'm like, that's wonderful. Those are great. Kitty, I'm not letting you off the hook. Kitty Guo, what about you? What's the best gift you've ever want to start with received? Sure. Well, I think for me, I feel as if I have more than enough stuff already. So I really appreciate experiential gifts.

There is a restaurant here that I really wanted to try that was very difficult to get reservations for because they open at 7 in the morning and they go really fast. I would never have gotten a reservation myself because I'm just not a morning person and I have not woken up at 7 a.m. in years. But my partner managed to get one for my birthday, so I was very, very happy about that. Oh, that's so cool. What about the best gift you've ever given?

think I'm a pretty good gift giver. Last year, I got my partner a wallet because he mentioned that his was sort of coming apart at the seams. I found a small artisan leather worker in Youngstown, Ohio. I got it personalized. It was all handmade, all hand-stitched in his favorite color, green, monogrammed with his initials. He loved it. He's

using it and will probably be using it for years to come. Yeah, it's a lifelong gift. It's one of those treasures. That's wonderful. Kitty, in addition to working for The Strategist, you also have your own Substack newsletter, Worn In, Worn Out, where you talk about discoveries from scouting independent makers and online vintage stores. Where do you go to search out these more eclectic finds? Where do you find things like, you know, the wallet or other wonderful gifts?

I do think social media is a big one. Every brand, of course, has a social media presence. So definitely Instagram is a large part of how I find things. Also, Reddit, I believe, is a really good source. I am scouring that subreddit, Buy It For Life, always for recommendations for really well-made, high-quality goods. I really like having those sort of peer recommendations from people.

who just have vetted things already and can give their personal vouch for it. See, I get the Reddit approach because you do have that feedback loop, but sometimes I see on social media like Instagram or Pinterest or something like that, you see...

What look somewhat organic, but I'm just not so sure. I think sometimes some of those things are planted. And I know that some people have really been burned. I'm not going to raise my hand here. But I'm curious, Jordan, have you ever done the social media route to find more eclectic stuff? I have.

Well, maybe eclectic's not the right word there, but social media has found me when I am already looking for things. And then, you know, you go on Instagram and, you know, it's tracking you in that way. And how's that worked out for you? I have ordered like...

three things across like Facebook and Instagram. And every time I'm like, will I get this? You know, and I have, but it's just one of those things is I don't do it that often. But when you say eclectic, I would agree with the idea that it's kind of things that you just see so much. It's sometimes hard to feel like, oh, I...

This is a fine. No one else is getting this ad like I am. That's just it. It seems like there's something, maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems like there's something of a backlash against the homogenous culture brought about by influencers. Do you think there's something like that going on here, Jordan?

Well, even back in 2019, I remember talking to people about they want to be de-influenced. They want a de-influencing movement. They don't want to see the same influencers talking the same products and kind of getting back to who can I go to for advice that they didn't get a brand deal, that they just really like this. I think in some ways, TikTok is

has provided that if it's not, you know, from an influencer. And then like Kitty was saying, like Reddit is really great for that. I think people have the assumption if they're going to Reddit, that's just a real person giving their reviews and their thoughts. And you can almost trust it a bit more. But that's just it. It's a real person giving their reviews and thoughts. I think that's a wonderful strategy. Any other ideas for trying to get real people's opinions here, Kitty? Yeah.

I mean, I do think that people are sort of wising up to the influencer brand scheme. And I do think if a product is actually truly good, then it should be able to speak for itself. But obviously too many times you'll see influencers just singing the praises of this or that, and it's because they got paid to. And then the average consumer will buy it and will be like, wait, this isn't really living up to the hype.

But I do think people are looking more to curators, quote unquote, rather than influencers. They're looking for people whose tastes. Whose reputation is built on it. Exactly. And they trust their taste. They trust that they're discerning and thoughtful people and won't sell you things that they don't like put their weight behind 100%.

In fact, Kitty, you confessed on your Substack that even though editorial content about holiday shopping comes out as early as August, August, I mean, you feel better about dropping your recommendations in November. What would you think? Late summer's too early for a discussion of holiday giving? Or why is that? Well, I mean, for me, the PR pitches for holiday gifting start rolling in around July and August. So it's sort of

For my job, it's unavoidable to think about the holidays in the summer. But I do think the bulk of the shopping happens around Black Friday time in November or like maybe October if you're really an early bird. But definitely November, December is the time when it's just foremost in everybody's minds. And summertime, everyone's trying to enjoy the last days of summer, trying to get as much warmth and sunshine as possible. It's not really something people are thinking about at that time.

Yeah, I'm afraid that if I buy too early, I'm going to miss out on the deep discounts that they announced like the day after Thanksgiving, that sort of thing. Jordan, what do you think is behind this push to move holiday content and marketing earlier and earlier? This really is a chicken or the egg situation. Yeah. Like, are we seeing these deals earlier because...

Retailers are putting them out earlier, so we're shopping earlier or retailers putting them out earlier because they know we'll shop earlier. We want it in that way. But one of the big pushes is it allows retailers to just spread their sales across the season more easily. You know, historically, a department store could get, you know,

two thirds of their sales during the year in the fourth quarter. And so if you spread it out, get people to start thinking about the holiday in late September, early October, then you can better gauge

what they would say their demand, what people want. If they sell out of a product, they still have a little bit more time to reorder it. So it helps operationally. But then the other argument I would say is you saw that people start buying Halloween stuff in July. People like buying things for the season. So why not give it to them early? I guess. But I would think that there might be a risk of consumers sort of getting holiday buying fatigue if we keep pushing it, pushing it, pushing it.

So I would say one thing, Walmart and Target and the like, they've all said, you know, as over the past few years, as people have pulled back on spending just across the board, one of the things that they see activates people is buying for seasonal holidays. People love costumes. People love like the doodads that you put around the house. So it actually is still a reliable category that people don't seem to have fatigue around right now.

We're going to have to talk more about Walmart and Target and their prominent role in the holiday shopping season. But first, we're going to take a break. And when we come back, we're going to get into some specific trends in buying this year and whether quiet luxury is still driving purchases. Stick around.

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Welcome back to Business Wars. My guests are Jordan Holman of The New York Times and Kitty Guo from New York Magazine. We've talked about what's driving people to buy gifts and how early marketers are targeting shoppers. Now let's turn to the kind of gifts that people are buying. There's a new trend that I want us to dive into, and this is something called marketing.

Quiet luxury. Let's hear a clip from YouTube creator Cassie Thorpe. She put it like this: "Early last year, we sort of heard the mumblings of what would be a huge trend. And this was quiet luxury, also known as stealth wealth, also known as the old money aesthetic. It had a number of different nicknames, but they all basically meant the same thing. And what sort of started out as a little candle of a trend

turned into a bonfire with a few sort of like cultural moments that helped it cement itself as something that was going to stay, or at the very least, be talked about for quite a while. Kitty, can you explain this quiet luxury term? Where does it come from? Have you heard it before? Yeah, I have. So I would say quiet luxury is sort of...

an understated vibe. It's got elegance. It's more concerned with timelessness and high quality as opposed to something very flashy or extravagant. I would say some examples of brands that are synonymous with the quiet luxury trend would be Kate or Bottega Veneta or The Row that sort of don't have the logos splashed all over them. They're just very chic and

streamlined silhouettes that are going to last for years and years. Sort of an understated elegance, it sounds like. Yes, absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. Jordan, are you seeing consumers stretch in terms of buying gifts? And I wonder how much inflation is a factor in shopping in 2024?

Well, in 2024, you're seeing less of that, the categories that would be like attainable luxury. So if you think like a coach or Kate Spade or whatnot, that category, it's not doing gangbusters like it was doing earlier because you're seeing the bifurcation. People are either they can already buy the luxury and they will continue to buy that or they've traded down and they're trying to find cheaper prices. So it's interesting where quiet luxury

luxury falls right now. Just like looking from a company standpoint, that companies actually have to like signal that this is luxury a little bit because people want it. Not just getting cheap here, folks. Yeah, yeah. This is luxurious, but it's price conscious. Yes, exactly. So that's kind of kind of troubled the definition of quiet luxury. Kitty, what are some of the other major gifting trends right now?

might even go so far as to say that trends are dead. I mean, I think... Oh, whoa. Hot take. Ooh, hot take. I do think...

Personalization at the moment is quite popular, such as gifting, like monogramming things. Bag charms are a very big thing right now because people want to decorate and accessorize their bags in ways that are reflective of their own personality. I think just because our algorithmically dictated consumer tastes have been flattened and are all very similar at the moment, we're looking for more ways to distinguish them for ourselves.

I really like that idea of, you know, the monogram or the inscription, something that's personalized because it doesn't often add a lot to the cost of the good, whatever that is, or the gift.

But it does clearly communicate this is special because I got it for you. You know what I mean? Yeah, absolutely. And it's such an easy way to make a gift seem a little more special. Yeah. Yeah. Over the past few years, I mean, to your point about the trends, I know whether or not we're over them yet or not. Certainly they've sped up with the introduction of TikTok, you know, into everyone's hands.

How do you think that platform's changed the way folks shop? Kitty, what have you observed on that score?

I mean, TikTok definitely has the power to elevate certain brands and products. The peer-to-peer marketing is super effective when you see a bunch of people who are the same age as you, the same circumstance as you. It's why all the tween girls have Drunk Elephant and Sol de Janeiro and Laneige on their Christmas wish list. It's why every influencer has an Octobuddy on the back of their phone. And...

On TikTok, you can really see a product in action and see how it works before you buy it. So I'm sure the brands that get anointed by the algorithm are thrilled about it. But I obviously do also think that it has that flattening effect where everyone just ends up lusting after the same thing.

TikTok shop has certainly made it easier to purchase gifts directly on the platform. I mean, easier than ever before. I mean, you just watch this video of a creator telling you why you have to get this latest, what, skincare tool or whatever it is. And, you know, tap once and you've purchased it and you haven't even had to leave the app. Jordan, you have any data on just how many consumers are actually buying from TikTok shop? Well.

Well, we know that TikTok shop started last year, but it's still a huge ramp up. I would say that it's unclear exactly how many people are using it right now. But just anecdotally, a lot of people are going there first, seeing what there is to buy. And then maybe, you know, they're not buying. But at least that is an impression that companies are looking at. I would also say the other things for brands who sell in TikTok shops.

the ones I've talked to, they said that's a huge boost to their sales and in a way where they don't have to spend on marketing because TikTok shops, the way that the business model works is actually cheaper for them to sell there versus being on Google or like having to market on Instagram. See, I noticed that it seems to...

Oh, boy, I'm about to reveal something. It seems like I buy more than than I ever intended to. And I'm wondering if that's not because TikTok has this that it's kind of pushing us for those impulse buys, you know, whether we're buying for someone else or maybe for ourself. Right. I mean, is do you think that's what's happening with TikTok shop that there are more impulse purchases there?

That's definitely a function of TikTok shopping. You've even seen other competitors try to fall in line because I see that people are impulse buyers. So recently, Amazon launched Haul, which is a lot of people say a competitor to Teemu, but it's the same idea. Like, see this cool doodad, buy it quickly, don't think too much of it. And everything's low price. It feels inconsequential. But, you know, if you keep doing that over time, you might look back and say, wow, I spent a lot.

Yeah. How do you think this is affecting consumer shopping habits? I mean, we've seen the prices of things that creators are promoting rise just because they've gone viral, right? It's definitely a struggle for brands who might be small brands to handle rapid demand.

So if they go viral, then they have to start fulfilling all of these orders and they might be just a sole proprietor. That's like a huge burden. So that's one dynamic to it. But I think on the consumer side, it just...

that everything should be convenient for us. It should be quick. If you want it now, you can get it now. And I think that's a huge mindset shift that's been happening over years, but it's sped up over the past few years. Kitty, you think that's right? Oh, yes, absolutely. TikTok shop just makes it so seamless and frictionless to add stuff to your cart and check out.

Same thing for Instagram shopping as well. You see an ad and within 30 seconds, you could have it on the way to your door. So it really facilitates the sort of mindless scrolling and buying without really thinking about it. You could be scrolling at 3 a.m. and wake up the next morning and be like, what have I added to my cart last night?

I learned a little tactic, by the way. I put it in the cart before I actually hit buy now. You know, that's something I've got to do now. And I give myself 24 hours. Otherwise, I'm in deep trouble 30 days later. Coming up, we're going to sort out the winners and the losers of the 2024 gifting battle. Spoiler here, Target did not hit their mark. We're going to talk about that and more when Business Wars returns.

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Hey, welcome back to Business Wars. Jordan, you've said that Walmart's a bellwether of U.S. consumer trends, and you also noted that it was reporting higher than expected sales. But you also reported that another discount retailer, Target, was hurting this holiday season. What's the story there? Why the tale of two cities with these two competitors? So Walmart and Target, we always kind of put them in the same category. But I think the past few weeks showed one

Big difference that Walmart has that Target probably wishes it had is a larger grocery business. So Target is more discretionary. So they sell...

candles and pillows and all of that compared to groceries. And that's where they saw the weakness. People are just not spending as much and they're not spending on big items like TVs, as Target said, they're spending more on vases. And so that's one of the reasons that I saw weakness. And it kind of just rattled a lot of investors because it's like, wait, what

What does this mean for the economy? What does it mean for the consumer base? But I think a big, the main thing here is that they're selling more things that you can kind of hold off on compared to with Walmart. You got to walk in and get your groceries every week. That's a really important point. But you reported that Walmart's success is not just sales.

you know, targeting, oops, I said it, not just aiming for consumers with limited budgets, but it's also driven by more traditionally higher end consumers too, which I found to be somewhat surprising. Tell us more about that. That's right. I mean, over the past few years with inflation, a lot of higher end consumers flock to Walmart for cheaper groceries. And

What Walmart has done successfully, which they haven't been able to do in past downtimes in the economy, is hold on to those higher income shoppers. So we're talking about people who make over $100K and more. And Walmart has done that by improving their delivery time. So getting things to you same day or next day. They've upgraded their fashion. So it looks different.

basically, and you want to have it. And then they've also just added more things that a lot of people say looks like Target. So they have more vegan options and just brighter, you know, food in the canned aisles. And so all of these things together give people a reason to shop at Walmart, not just for the low prices. Kitty, do you have a sense of whether or to what extent these brick and mortar stores are...

social media to get shoppers literally into their door? Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean, I do think that...

There's a nostalgia brewing for in-person shopping. I actually just worked on a story for the latest holiday issue of New York Magazine, what it was like to go shopping in New York during the heyday of the department store, when Saks and Macy's and all the Fifth Avenue stores would go all out for Christmas. And there were so many people in the comments reminiscing about that time and wishing we could go back. But I think that any brick-and-mortar store that has like a...

well curated, well organized display will always hook in-person shoppers. But the convenience of online shopping is obviously hard to compete with. I do see a lot of brands

posting their own gift guides on social media as well to showcase the breadth of products that they have in store and just to sort of hook in consumers who maybe wouldn't have stopped into the brick and mortar. You know, I think a lot of people do discount, no pun intended, the emotional impact

And you talk about the nostalgia, Kitty. Jordan, have you ever nostalgically yearned to go back into the store? You know, the whole, you know, let's go to Saks and let's go to Macy's, that sort of thing. Has that ever been part of the shopping appeal for you come holiday season? Definitely. And hearing the music in store and all this and smelling the scents in store. I think it's hard to tie, like to break apart the holiday season with shopping.

that shopping experience because that's always kind of been part of it. And this is why retailers, they really lean into this time of year. In August, I had the opportunity to go down to Florida to hear how Walmart plans for the holiday season. And a big part of it was that merchandising, was that nostalgia, reminding parents like, oh, you played with Legos growing up. Let's put that

you know, towards the front of our toy aisle. So a lot of it is nostalgia and just knowing that, yes, people will be shopping online, but maybe let's put things in the store that's a bit whimsical that it kind of reminds them of something. So it's a different experience. Yeah.

Kitty, thinking about your gifting guides, when you're making your list and checking it twice, do you think about those items you can buy in stores versus the ones you have to buy online? I mean, are you pushing folks more toward in-store shops in your guides or not so much?

Well, definitely at The Strategist, we are e-com focused. So everything that we recommend can be bought online. But for me personally, and for my newsletter, I love recommending small makers, independent creators, people who maybe don't have as much of a ability to scale and create things that are very small, independent and personalized. So

That's an aspect that I prefer to promote personally, but at The Strategist, it's definitely all about the ability to shop online. Yeah, yeah. Let's fast forward if we can. Just coming out of Christmas, what about next year? What do you think holiday gifting will look like this time in 2025? Either of you seeing any trends on the horizon that may affect the way we gift and shop for gifts? I

honestly don't see us going back anytime soon. I feel like every year the sales just start earlier and it just becomes even more of an event with a capital E. This

This year is my fourth Black Friday with The Strategist, and our Cyber Week game plan just sort of gets more expansive every year. We didn't even used to call it Cyber Week. It just used to be just Black Friday. So maybe another year or two, we'll be calling it Cyber Month, honestly. Jordan, what do you think about 2025? Maybe less what's actually going to happen and maybe what you wish would happen. Yeah.

Well, one thing that I am really curious of is when Cyber Monday will be a bigger day than Black Friday. Even though Black Friday has flattened, like it's not the peak anymore. People say it's more of a hill when it comes to sales for retailers. It's still so part of our culture.

But so is online shopping and it's just so convenient. So I'm always looking at that balance of like, what does Black Friday mean anymore? So I think that's one thing that I'll be keeping my eye on next year. Well, before we let either of you go, how about your own gifting tips and tricks? Either of you want to unveil some secrets that the rest of us might be able to benefit from? Kitty?

Yeah, actually, I have a lot to say here. My personal gifting philosophy is to sort of just stick with stuff that's

fun, frivolous, and delightful. Just no boring everyday household items. I feel like no one really wants to unwrap a new vacuum on Christmas. I mean, unless your giftee specifically tells you, I want this vacuum, please do not get me anything except this vacuum. I don't think you should get them a vacuum. I also think that

Something that's fun and delightful is just a little unexpected is the way to go. Consumables are always good as long as you know about any food allergies or restrictions that they might have. I think in the end that gifting can be a little bit fraught in a way.

I mean, the holidays themselves obviously always come with a good amount of baggage, obviously, and the cultural expectations around gifting do play a part in that. There's like an element of if you receive a bad gift, quote unquote, you sort of feel unseen or unknown by this person who's ostensibly close to you. And I think that's partly why so many people turn to gift guides or want suggestions because they just really want to get it right and

But in the end, I don't know your giftee. You do. So if you really want to get them a good gift, I would just suggest paying close attention to them year-round and noting down their likes and dislikes or maybe even just keeping a document going and jotting down anything that they mention offhandedly that they really like.

so that when it's go time and it's holiday season, you already have a bunch of ideas gathered. That's great and very practical advice. I really like that. Jordan, what about you? Any gifting tips and tricks?

Yeah, I love that. So I'm a huge book lover. I have friends and family who also love books. So during this season, I always try to shop at independent bookstores, just knowing that sales there can make a huge difference, especially during this time of year. It's a huge book selling time. And I would just also say that there's a lot of people. It feels like there's a huge trend of people just not wanting more stuff.

So also if you can think about, you know, your friend who loves going on vacations, thinking about, you know, getting...

giving a gift card for that. Try to think outside the box, kind of echoing what Kitty said about just noticing the people in your life and what they like and try to think about something that maybe isn't more stuff. Jordan Holman is a retail reporter for The New York Times. And Jordan, how can folks follow your reporting? So you can find me on X, Jordan Journals. I spell it J-O-R-D-Y-N or Instagram, J-O-J-O-H-O-L-M-E-Y.

And Kitty Guo writes for The Strategist from New York Magazine. Kitty, where can folks read more about your guides?

You can find me writing at The Strategist. You can find me on Instagram at K-I-T-G-U-O. And you can also subscribe to my newsletter, Worn In, Worn Out, on Substack. Kitty, Jordan, thanks so much for sharing the gift of your insights with Business Wars listeners. And Happy New Year. Happy New Year. Happy New Year to you, too. Coming up in our next season, Boeing used to lead the $400 billion aviation industry.

Now the American icon is a company on the brink of unraveling.

From Wondery, this is Shopping in the Social Media Age for Business Wars. I'm your host, David Brown. Emily Frost and Kelly Kyle produced this episode. Our producer is Grant Rudder. Our audio engineer is Sergio Enriquez. Our managing producer is Desi Blalock. Our senior managing producer is Callum Plews. Our senior producers are Emily Frost and Dave Schilling. Our executive producers are Jenny Lauer Beckman and Marshall Louis for Wondery.

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