SCOTUS Makes Unexpected Ruling With Instant Impact
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in which the Supreme Court has allowed a ban on AR-15 and other long assault rifles in states like Maryland and across the country as consistent with the Second Amendment, but with a huge asterisk there. And similarly, they are allowing a ban in Rhode Island and therefore in other states on high capacity magazines, which feed the bullets into the weapon at a high rate of speed.

Both of those things for now do not appear the way those cases have been developed to violate not only the Second Amendment on the language of the Second Amendment, but as reinterpreted by this United States Supreme Court through a decision by Justice Alito back in 2022, we call the Bruin decision, which says in order to have these bans survive, constitutional analysis.

There has to be a historical analog, a historical tradition of banning these types of weapons going back to the old timey times. And we have in the dissents and in the statements by Kavanaugh, by Thomas in the Maryland case, we know what they're going to do in the next year or two.

in these cases. So don't be surprised if I come back with a hot take and I tell you a year from now that they are not going to allow an AR-15 ban and they're going to find that it's inconsistent with the Second Amendment. But for now, procedurally, they're not finding that. Confused? You won't be at the end of my hot take. I'm Michael Popak. You're on the Midas Touch Network and on Legal AF. Let's get into these cases. The Supreme Court is trying to wrap things up here at the end of the month.

This has been a long term for everybody. It started in the first Monday of October and goes until they issue their last decision at the end of this month. Of course, the other asterisk there is that they're doing emergency applications like every day. They're popping them like Tic Tacs. And we're going to have hearings, potentially oral arguments, potentially and certainly rulings throughout the summer.

But this is what they've decided to do on two controversial cases, which the gun lobby and gun enthusiasts and people like Donald Trump who love guns without restriction are lamenting. Maryland's assault weapon ban went up to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals. It bans AR-15s. It was passed originally in the wake of the Sandy Hook disaster.

elementary school massacre of children and teachers, small children and teachers. You'd think there'd be a public sentiment to support this. And so Maryland instituted an assault weapon ban, primarily focused on the AR-15. The problem with the AR-15 in America is that it's proliferated. It is like the number one long arm that people have in their homes. But of

According to both the Maryland courts, Maryland federal courts and Rhode Island federal courts and others, they are very similar to military grade weaponry like the M-16. And if they are military grade weaponry or something like it, then they shouldn't be allowed, you know, a citizen should not be allowed to bear them. They're not bearable. I mean, they're unbearable for sure. But that's one of the

the test? Is this something that is bearable? People can bear these arms. Just because we've allowed them to proliferate doesn't mean they're consistent with the Second Amendment. And those two federal courts have said, nah, those are military grade and those are outside the protections of the Second Amendment, even as reinterpreted by the Supreme Court in 2022 in that Bruin decision. Because we looked at the historical antecedents and the historical precedent here, and we think

People in the late 1700s, early 1800s would have banned these things as well. Of course, Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch, and in his own way, Kavanaugh, rejected that. That's why I said they can't count the five. These two rulings, at least for now, indicate that Roberts, Chief Justice Roberts, and Amy Coney Barrett have slid over to, as we have said, they are the center, center-right, center-right-right ruling.

this court and they helped make the law because if they join with the three on the moderate wing the Democratic appointed justices They'll form a block a voting block of five and things will go their way That's what we just had effectively five to four now on the five to four

Let's talk about the decision. This means for now, what came up from Maryland, what came up from Rhode Island is currently the law of the land. States can have on their books bans on large capacity magazines and bans on AR-15. But Kavanaugh pointed out, here's the big asterisk.

that there are cases percolating in other courts below that will reach the United States Supreme Court, he said, maybe this coming term, opening in October, or the following term. And he thinks at that point, a case will be ripe to present to the court the sole issue of whether something like an AR-15 is protected by the Second Amendment as a right to bear, a personal right of an individual in their own, not a military right.

Or is it something that's outside the protections of the Second Amendment? It wasn't squarely addressed in these particular cases. Let me read to you from the decision by Kavanaugh or his statement.

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K-E-E-P-E-R-S-N-A-T-U-R-A-L-S.com/legalAF or enter code legalAF. Here's what Kavanaugh had to say. He starts with, "In District of Columbia versus Heller, this court ruled that the Second Amendment must be interpreted in light of constitutional text, history, and tradition. That was then carried on in Bruin.

In 2022, this case, Kavanaugh writes, primarily concerns Maryland's ban on the AR-15, a semi-automatic rifle. Americans today possess an estimated 20 to 30 million AR-15s. That's a staggering number, folks. And AR-15s are legal in 41 of the 50 states, meaning that the states such as Maryland that prohibit AR-15s are something of an outlier.

Given that millions of Americans own AR-15s and that a significant majority of states allow them, the petitioners have a strong argument that AR-15s are in common use by law-abiding citizens and therefore are protected by the Second Amendment under Heller. In short, Kavanaugh says he expects in the next term or two, he says, additional petitioners

appeals below will likely be before this court shortly. And in my view, this court should and presumably will address the AR-15 issue soon. Thomas goes further. He's the author of the tremendous expansion of Second Amendment rights in 2022. And he's

And he just says basically everybody has the right to bear arms. It's a personal right. And he thinks that the other five people on the court have misinterpreted his ruling in Bruin. And because they're so popular, they should remain available to Americans despite the tremendous pressure

human toll that AR-15s take. It is always something like an AR-15 generally that is used at a mass shooting, at a school shooting. In Las Vegas, it was another form of a bump stock attached to a long rifle, creating an automatic weapon, if you will. These are the killing machines of people that want to take out mass casualties and kill children.

But the Republicans don't care about it. The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals that this case is based on, or the appeal that came up from, it was 10 to 5. Yes, they supported the ban, but five Republicans, many of them Trumpers, voted against it. That's why this appointment of federal judges by Donald Trump that we're now watching on full display is so important, because you can see the rulings that they're making. What happens next?

This will end it for this term. States, there's about nine or ten of them, maybe a few more that will enact it, that will try for an assault weapons ban.

and cite to these cases, but they do so at their own risk and their own peril because Kavanaugh has signaled that as soon as a better case to decide the AR-15 issue and whether it's consistent with the Second Amendment comes up, he's gonna vote against it. Question is, is Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett gonna slide over and join them? They only need one more vote

And then I think, folks, we're going to see AR-15s being declared by this Supreme Court a year or two from now as being consistent with Second Amendment rights. And that is ultimately very scary. In the meantime, large capacity weapons and large capacity magazines can also be banned subject to future rulings of this court. Having expanded and opened the Pandora's box in 2022.

I don't think, let me manage expectations, this case should be, these two cases should be seen as putting the genie back in the bottle, putting Pandora back in the box. It's not. It's just delaying the inevitable, which we'll cover here at the intersection of law and politics on the Midas Touch Network. I'm Michael Popak. Wednesdays and Saturdays at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Join me for Legal AF.

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