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cover of episode DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie

DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback with bestie Aaron Levie

2024/12/20
logo of podcast All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Aaron Levie
C
Chamath Palihapitiya
以深刻的投资见解和社会资本主义理念而闻名的风险投资家和企业家。
D
David Friedberg
美国企业家、商人和天使投资者,创立并领导了The Climate Corporation和The Production Board。
J
J. Cal
Topics
J. Cal: 我和萨克斯曾经关系密切,现在他离开了,我感到空虚。我是一个好斗的人,萨克斯离开后,我感到无所适从。我想象我和萨克斯以及其他人在酒吧打架的场景。 Chamath Palihapitiya: 我注意到弗里德伯格的背景图像是某种秘密沟通语言。现在是一个充满迷因股票和公司用可转换债券购买比特币的时代。如果公司用数十亿美元购买比特币并被添加到纳斯达克 100 指数,我会考虑自杀。我建议 Box 公司将 5% 的资金投资于比特币。萨克斯应该优先关注稳定币的监管,以减少消费者风险。稳定币是一种将美元转换为数字代币的机制。Tether 和 USDC 是两种主要的稳定币,它们在发行地和资产保障方面存在差异。稳定币的风险在于其资产保障可能不足,导致偿付能力风险。稳定币业务规模巨大,并产生了巨额利润。许多公司,例如 SpaceX,都在使用稳定币进行支付。稳定币可以用于跨境支付,避免外汇风险。美国应该将稳定币作为标准支付方式,以提高支付效率。稳定币可以与Visa、万事达卡等传统支付系统竞争。使用稳定币可以降低交易费用。降低交易费用将有利于全球GDP增长。应该避免使用Tether稳定币,因为它存在问题。萨克斯应该优先推广稳定币,然后再关注其他加密项目。加密货币社区对监管的意见分歧很大。萨克斯应该实施投资者资格测试,以保护投资者免受欺诈。马斯克和拉马斯瓦米帮助否决了政府支出法案,避免了政府停摆。人们正在利用人工智能工具来审查政府支出法案。人们普遍认为,政府支出增加会导致更好的结果,但事实并非如此。马斯克的公司证明了,通过创新可以降低成本。政府支出的大部分用于管理开支,而不是实际的公共服务。“Doge”运动提供了一种非传统的方式来解决政府支出问题。马斯克可能会利用其影响力来推动政府改革。“Doge”运动能够通过提高公众的关注度来影响政府决策。“Doge”运动能够通过提高公众的关注度来影响政府决策。一些人反对“Doge”运动,原因是其与马斯克的联系以及党派偏见。人们应该支持限制政府浪费支出的努力,而不仅仅是基于党派立场。对“Doge”运动的支持与否,部分原因是由于党派偏见。 Aaron Levie: 萨克斯担任新职务是一个不错的选择,尤其是在人工智能领域。在这个阶段,人工智能需要的是反监管或去监管的态度,以避免阻碍技术进步。我不赞成州一级立法对人工智能进行监管,因为这会导致混乱。加州的 SB 1047 法案将人工智能的进步视为具有内在风险,这可能会阻碍创新。目前人工智能领域竞争激烈,需要保持快速发展,而不是过度监管。过度监管可能会导致大型科技公司不愿发布新的人工智能模型。白宫科技政策办公室(OSTP)在人工智能监管方面做得不错。萨克斯可能会推动人工智能的进步,并避免过早的过度监管。信用卡交易费用过高。如果能回到加密货币1.0时代,专注于金融基础设施,那么监管会更容易。DeFi和金融加密货币的监管存在争议,难以达成共识。加密货币社区内部对如何监管NFT等资产存在分歧。人们普遍认为,政府支出增加会导致更好的结果,但事实并非如此。马斯克的公司证明了,通过创新可以降低成本。政府支出的大部分用于管理开支,而不是实际的公共服务。政府需要进行改革,以提高效率并降低成本。“Doge”运动能够通过提高公众的关注度来影响政府决策。“Doge”运动能够通过提高公众的关注度来影响政府决策。一些人反对“Doge”运动,原因是其与马斯克的联系以及党派偏见。人们应该支持限制政府浪费支出的努力,而不仅仅是基于党派立场。对“Doge”运动的支持与否,部分原因是由于党派偏见。 David Friedberg: 拟议中的政府支出法案没有改变联邦政府的支出水平,这反映了联邦政府规模的不断扩大。美国联邦政府的支出占GDP的比例已达到创纪录的水平。政府支出法案中的一些项目,例如自然灾害救济,是合理的,但也会扭曲市场。政府对自然灾害的救济会扭曲市场,因为这会影响保险和房地产的成本。政府对农业产品的补贴也会扭曲市场。政府支出不断增加的原因是,议员们为了争取选票而倾向于增加支出。为了获得选票,议员们倾向于支持增加支出,导致政府支出膨胀。美国宪法缺乏对政府支出和税收的限制,这是导致政府支出膨胀的原因之一。建国者们认为,众议院将对政府支出进行制衡。建国者们警告说,不受控制的政府权力会导致个人自由的丧失。建国者们未能预见选民最终会要求政府提供更多福利。建国者们没有在宪法中设定政府支出的限制,这是一个错误。随着时间的推移,美国人越来越依赖政府提供的福利。选民要求政府提供更多福利,导致政府支出增加。我不确定“Doge”运动能否成功地限制政府支出。马斯克在推特上对政府支出法案的批评引发了公众的关注。现在越来越多的人开始关注政府过度支出和债务问题。“Doge”运动标志着人们对政府过度支出的态度转变。 supporting_evidences Chamath Palihapitiya: 'Based on what you guys were just talking about before this recording started, I have no idea what we're in for. Yes. Listen, we're living in an age of meme stocks and people selling convertible notes to buy Bitcoin for their treasury and then becoming a NASDAQ 100...' Aaron Levie: 'I think it's a strong pick. Let the genuflecting begin. Go ahead, say more, Aaron. So Crypto I'm a little bit indifferent on. We haven't spent much time there, leaned in much there...' David Friedberg: 'So the proposed bill made no real change to the current spending level of the federal government at roughly $6.2 trillion on an annualized basis, which, by the way, is roughly call it 23% of GDP...'

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Aaron Levie think David Sacks would be a strong pick for his new role in crypto and AI?

Aaron believes Sacks' deregulation and anti-regulation stance will support AI progress without over-regulating it too early in its evolution. He also thinks Sacks can provide good parameters and principles to avoid slowing down progress.

What was Aaron Levie's reaction to the Biden administration's AI regulation proposals?

Aaron was concerned about state-by-state legislation on AI, which could create chaos. He also felt the proposals viewed AI progress as inherently risky, which could lead to overregulation and stifle innovation.

What does Chamath Palihapitiya suggest as the first steps for David Sacks in regulating crypto?

Chamath suggests Sacks should focus on promoting stablecoins as standard rails in the U.S., which would disrupt traditional banking infrastructure and reduce transaction costs. He also recommends incentivizing cheaper transactional rails to challenge Visa and MasterCard.

What was the key issue with the proposed omnibus spending bill that was eventually killed?

The bill was rushed, absurdly long (1,500 pages), and included $340 billion in spending, including pay raises for Congress members and funding for controversial projects like the Disinformation Watchdog Group. It lacked serious public debate and transparency.

How did Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy contribute to stopping the omnibus spending bill?

Elon and Vivek used their influence on Twitter to highlight the bill's flaws, leading to public outcry and pressure on Congress. This marked a significant shift in how politics can be influenced through social media and public transparency.

What are the three likely explanations for the drone sightings over New Jersey, according to David Friedberg?

Friedberg suggests the drones could be part of undisclosed government activities, individuals messing around, or a psyop by another country (possibly China) to slow down the U.S. drone economy by stoking fear and regulatory backlash.

Why is Zuck joining Team Elon against OpenAI, according to Chamath Palihapitiya?

Zuck is joining Elon because OpenAI's for-profit conversion could disrupt the competitive landscape. Chamath believes OpenAI's market share is declining, and Meta's open-source models could further commoditize AI, making OpenAI less relevant.

What does Chamath predict for OpenAI's future in the AI market?

Chamath predicts OpenAI will likely become a third or fourth-tier player in the AI market, with companies like Gemini, Meta, and XAI leading the charge. He believes OpenAI's dominance is waning due to increased competition and commoditization of AI models.

What breakthrough has Google made with its Gemini and VO models, according to the podcast?

Google's Gemini and VO models have advanced AI's ability to render 3D objects and video data, leveraging YouTube's vast repository of video content. This allows for more immersive and interactive experiences, such as creating 3D environments and video games.

Why does Chamath believe Google has regained its competitive edge in AI?

Chamath attributes Google's comeback to its compounding infrastructure, data, and personnel advantages. He also notes that Google has shifted its posture to launch aggressively and prioritize winning the AI battle, which has reinvigorated its efforts.

Shownotes Transcript

(0:00) Bestie intros

(3:07) The Besties welcome Box CEO Aaron Levie!

(5:40) Thoughts on Sacks's new role, what areas he can have immediate positive impact on in crypto and AI

(18:42) DOGE's first casualty and its paradigm-shifting potential

(48:25) Conspiracy Corner: What are the drones over New Jersey!?

(57:36) Zuck joins Team Elon against OpenAI, AI's competitive landscape and downstream impact on business software

(1:27:29) Google's AI turnaround, future of AI physics and video models

Follow the besties:

https://x.com/chamath)

https://x.com/Jason)

https://x.com/DavidSacks)

https://x.com/friedberg)

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https://x.com/levie)

Follow on X:

https://x.com/theallinpod)

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl)

https://x.com/yung_spielburg)

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect)

Referenced in the show:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-continuing-resolution-march-14)

https://x.com/Jason/status/1869816646954823916)

https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20241216/CR.pdf)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-house-vote-continuing-resolution)

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1869730547851051029)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/continuing-resolution-government-shutdown-2024)

https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1869407887983821089)

https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed58.asp)

https://x.com/patrickc/status/1869422495985750459)

https://x.com/chamath/status/1869773044832718917)

https://x.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1869871681830879256)

https://x.com/RepJayapal/status/1869823494588162475)

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869485580276629975)

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869482581181554704)

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869487359420727338)

https://www.wsj.com/politics/biden-white-house-age-function-diminished-3906a839)

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/19/faa-drone-flights-are-temporarily-banned-new-jersey.html)

https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat)

https://x.com/AutismCapital)

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital)

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/openai-sees-5-billion-loss-this-year-on-3point7-billion-in-revenue.html)

https://www.axios.com/2024/12/19/openai-bret-taylor-nonprofit-restructuring)

https://openai.com/index/scale-the-benefits-of-ai)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/technology/mira-murati-openai.html)

https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-openai-lawsuit-sam-altman-chatgpt-36bc55dbb8b4f9e1e5675ff7564e5fa0)

https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/13/24320880/meta-california-ag-letter-openai-non-profit-elon-musk)

https://x.com/DailyPalantir/status/1869097046889882057)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-28/openai-cfo-says-75-of-its-revenue-comes-from-paying-consumers)

https://x.com/GoogleDeepMind/status/1868703624714395907)

https://x.com/_philschmid/status/1869639246434246966)