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cover of episode E139: Recapping Chamath's wedding, VC surplus, unions vs Hollywood, room-temp superconductors & more

E139: Recapping Chamath's wedding, VC surplus, unions vs Hollywood, room-temp superconductors & more

2023/7/27
logo of podcast All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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People
C
Chamath Palihapitiya
以深刻的投资见解和社会资本主义理念而闻名的风险投资家和企业家。
D
David Sacks
一位在房地产法和技术政策领域都有影响力的律师和学者。
J
Jason Calacanis
一位多才多艺的美国互联网企业家、天使投资人和播客主持人,投资过多家知名初创公司,并主持多个影响广泛的播客节目。
Topics
Chamath Palihapitiya: Chamath Palihapitiya 的婚礼筹备工作量很大,他自己在婚礼上的表现也很糟糕。婚礼上有很多意想不到的嘉宾,包括一些Chamath并没有邀请的扑克牌玩家。婚礼上还有一些令人难忘的时刻,例如Chamath朗读了一首在休息站厕所里找到的诗歌。 David Sacks: David Sacks 认为自己对婚礼的成功贡献了 30%。他将 Chamath Palihapitiya 和 Saadia 的婚礼比作“开放式嬉皮士和芭比娃娃的婚礼”。他还谈到了在欧洲期间与俄罗斯特使会面的经历,以及他对乌克兰和俄罗斯之间和平前景的看法。 Jason Calacanis: Jason Calacanis 分享了他通过节食和远足减掉 41 磅的经历,并表达了他对美国肥胖问题的看法。他认为,美国不应庆祝或容忍肥胖,而应以同情心对待肥胖问题。他还与 J.K.罗琳打赌,如果 J.K.罗琳在一年内减掉一定的体重,他将支付他一笔钱。 David Sacks: David Sacks 认为,年轻人过早进入风险投资行业并非明智之举。他认为,风险投资家向创始人提供的最主要价值是建议,而缺乏创业经验的风险投资家无法提供有价值的建议。他还认为,市场上风险投资家过多,最终会导致他们为有限合伙人亏损,并最终失去工作。成功的风险投资家有两种类型:一种是擅长挑选创始人,另一种是擅长与创始人合作。好莱坞编剧和演员罢工可能适得其反,并促使工作室采用人工智能工具。工会在当今时代可能不再是有效的谈判机制。好莱坞是一个遵循幂律的行业,只有少数演员和编剧能够获得高收入。 Jason Calacanis: Jason Calacanis 认为,在任何行业取得成功都需要付出大量时间和努力。好莱坞工会未能充分认识到,他们真正的竞争对手是 YouTube、播客和其他个人内容创作者。一些工会存在养老金和加班费方面的滥用行为。过去十年中,一些高薪工作变得过度报酬,导致人们寻求工会代表。 Jason Calacanis: 韩国研究团队发表了一篇论文,声称他们发现了一种在室温和环境压力下具有超导性能的材料。如果韩国团队的发现属实,这将是本世纪物理学领域最重要的发现。人们对元素周期表和物质物理学的理解仍然非常有限。室温超导材料的发现将彻底改变电池技术和计算技术。

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The episode begins with a recap of Chamath's wedding in Italy, highlighting the beautiful location, the quality of Italian wine, and the incredible hospitality experienced during the event.
  • Chamath's wedding took place in Portofino, Italy.
  • The Italian white wine was described as 'outrageous' in quality.
  • The hospitality in Italy was praised as amazing.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Love you guys, uh, hey, if you guys are around, you know, and anyone .

want to use of .

wine and got wine later, maybe next week or something, who knows? Maybe we will all get together in person.

A guine, I see you soon. I love you. I love .

you to ita, basically .

you're going to.

for sure. okay. So we were there .

in italy this a time we were very .

the quality of italian White wine is outrageous. It's outrageous.

Do they have a man? But I when we're ita.

I would .

like .

to say thank .

you to the amazing people of italy for having this country for adults to go on vacation.

And what an incredible country.

Here we go in three, two here. yeah. So going to .

everybody walk again.

three, two. Hey, everybody, to another episode of the all in podcast. We are here in beautiful portofino, italy, and we have found a new busy institutions of .

nataly is your name? That is my name.

And I be surprised by my sir name. You got a certain name. What is the certain name? Pali and rita, no, sorry.

Polly. happy. Tia.

Polly. hoitle. So your cousins, apparently. And you run a biotech thesis.

I understand here in italy, in my spare time, yeah, when somebody else doesn't consume the life out of me, got IT. Okay, so you're dealing drugs in italy. And welcome to the all in pod.

In all seriousness, we are here in italy because and daddy got married. Big round of applause. nice.

And we decided we tape an episode very quickly. But tell us what was IT like at the wedding? Mary chamar, Polly hopejr about .

the wedding? Well, IT was was a lot of work, and chamar was, as you can expect, completely ugly, useless. Yes.

this in t in fact.

counterproductive. He showed sometimes really, really frustrating. Yes, but I love him nonetheless.

So here we are very happy.

This is the moment I would like to take credit for thirty percent of the wedding and a number that you can't dispute. You don't really know what that means ah and then everybody ends up thanking you effusively, because you're like the thirty percent that they love the most. That was me.

Yes, if you want to make an estimate, twenty thirty percent chance is I can go wrong freeburg. And sax or with us that done sax, you had a lot of clandestine meetings here. Any are we any closer to peace in ukraine, russia? I saw you talk in to some russian emissaries. You've been on the continent for a full month. Tell us what you go for .

twelve hours yesterday. Yeah.

you know that you've been on some of these crazy yachts trying to broken piece how closer we how you're drawn a your time in europe the summer.

I don't think we're too close, but we say, what about the happy couple here? Sati is brilliant and unstoppable to moth is superficial and plastic. So this was like the wedding of open hyper and Barbie. And in that analogy to month your Barbie.

yes, absolutely lots of substances fire over here and complete narcisso in plastic over here. Also, the general you the same size, they can very smooth, just barely a bump. yes. Okay, well, well.

we will do IT.

So, saadi, congratulations.

We love you.

Thank you. Take because you celebrated.

And now okay.

here you guess I wasn't talking about this. Yes.

cut up. Oh, here we go. Here we go. What a great, great week had here. Lots of friends came in.

Lots of friends, lots of best of poker.

Lots of friends.

lots of of poker players that weren't invited. Know what? Poker game I mean. I mean, we walked in in a poker table last night and they're all these guys that I didn't see at the wedding and you invited these guys no, no, no poker game.

No, let's be honey. Just be honest. I think that was the most unbelievably a quite guess list yeah of any words that ever have is very true.

I mean, literally, it's like a two by two matrix of willene well, fame and infor me. yes. I mean, you had every quarter covered. Yes, I was incredible .

guy and I was joking. It's like walking into the bar on tattoo. Wen, 不, 不。

I could .

tell that when I was doing my toast, which smart told me, no, hold bar, go for IT like toast. He really met rose.

yeah. He.

the alias did not get the joke.

yes. So half the audience was laughing. The poker guys were laughing, and in the family section.

lot of them got the jokes were there on IT. But what an amazing week we've had here, and thank you for hosting us. That was absolutely wonderful.

This really is so many way we should cut in some shots on the video on where we're sitting right now. This incredible, each club we're .

looking at, I A photo meeting out there doing a little board meeting and people mean .

that your language, a language dia.

But I guess famous red beach restaurant.

I mean, lingua studia has these two incredible restaurants in million or three there, just top of the top and they have this incredible beach restaurant here and it's the hotel or so it's the restaurant that is beside the beach club that's also owned by the splendido where yeah where you guys .

are all saying sorry ah it's been been .

an amazing people. If you go just a little bit you're in .

porto fino proper amaze .

wonderful food.

incredible food.

unbelievable. We've een like kings yeah and queens as the case maybe and just the hospitality in italy is amazing. One of my favorite.

I just want to say to all of you guys and to all of our friends, I mean, you guys literally flew halfway around the world for three days. Yeah.

summer plan. I mean.

he was incredible. And and Frankly, I picked we picked the three work days, monday, tuesday.

once day. Yeah.

if you had a body, had to work, a certain person, had two rooms rented at those blended to just for meetings, and should be running back meetings and then trying to go to the and incredible you guys.

I think I think this whole thing was a conspiracy y to convene a high stakes poker. You knew year's playing the summer in italy. There is no poker here. I feel like, how do I get .

the poker game .

to not? But I did. I did. Went at one point, two million dollars t from was craze.

That was crazy. My favorite poker story is you got ta call out the blue i'm neighbor.

best get a text oh my god, need rooms, plenty of i'd like two in the morning and I was, I like, looked at my phone and i'm like, why texting me at two in the morning? Need room spending and I said, it's cheap. Is everything okay? You need any help? Need rooms blended to and I said, i'm not your fucking and travel cord data.

Can you help me in a room at this? Plenty of hotel I said, what? You're here so I said, what? Why did you just me enter into our game? yeah. And so actually came to the wedding .

rally in the neighbor od. He was in the area.

but he was spending a night time I thought he would have over.

Such a bad joke I .

saw that time I saw that's how what works. We went OK. There's a little backstory. All this, what happened was chaos told me in the spring hate. Listen, jake out. And finally, i'm so excited i'm going to marry nt and I said all that's great you had the kids and now you're getting married not the traditional way to do IT but congratulations and he said, yeah, we're going to have like a little thing with our families in italy very spoke the kids parents that's IT and then you know, back in silicon valley, in the bay area, will have a backyard party for everybody else and I said, great, let me know where italy we're going and that said, a monday, it's I just going to be the immediate family and I said, great. Where am I going? Tell me the location and if you need in a fish and time in and then week later, we get an email that and tramp discussed IT and they said, you know, j else right? We shouldn't vite everybody to italy.

And so thanks for making that decision.

Oh my god, you guys in? yes. So we're sitting near italian style for like two hours assembling for the wedding. Nothing happens.

You're all just standing around waiting for something to happen and then to move comes in daily, comes in beautiful breast. Amazing music is incredible. And they sit there for another ten minutes, and they turned around and they say, the efficient, we just got a letter. The efficient to sk, we need someone, we need someone to step in. And the j pops up in the back.

I got IT knocks to the italian .

royalty to the right in the left, blows his way through the audience, makes his way to the top, pulled out his american boat tire, whatever he had, and says, let's do this. And then we had J, K, L.

Officiate a .

very J, K, L. way. yeah.

Were you surprised? surprised. A lot of people were surprised .

you got me because in a inal email said jack was going to officiate. But then we heard nothing for two and a half months, and no one really new. And a big secret.

a big city, to be a surprise. IT was just be a vows in .

the poetry, the poetry shared .

with amazing.

You want to can you .

do a dramatic greeting of the .

poem that I wrote for you?

This was mok wrote a poem .

road not and but do .

this set up that comes well. So the set .

up was that nat would read trios poems and trios read nats poems and so nt had this incredibly oo poems incredibly well thought out not to and then to moth rote a poem from anonymous that he found at a rest stop on the two eighty written on the inside of the matter stall.

Roses are red. no.

Violence are no. Go, go, go.

okay? You remember that you should .

have a committed remember. Let me think you, roses are red, pickles are Green. I love your eggs and what's in between?

Oh my god. sing.

I was so embarrassing.

And he had to read this wall. The .

really .

her, her.

her first point was assigned from bullying shakespeare. My first poem was beyond ized coffee. Yeah where where the last line is what you sit on top of me, which he has to say looking .

at her death was .

so then her second poem was, uh, something by. Gregory hofman, I think he was something hofman. And then mine was, yes, this an option? And then her third, was he coming in mind? Was .

Daniel open?

Yes.

but we had a great time. There's been a lot of news.

And you know you got here early, right? Where would you like camping the coast?

And you, yes, I want camping. The sides .

of bring servers is coach to this beautiful .

procon everywhere.

leaving a trail of middle in this week.

as the medici he was.

I I did post the third strap. I'm very proud of down forty one pounds on the peak, twenty pounds with hiking and using the fasting APP that Kevin rose built. And then the other half, zero. great. Fast up.

And the other half .

was so big. What is an APP do .

to help you? You click.

do not and says no, shows you a picture .

of yourself, shows you have a picture of your self.

That's what I did. I took a picture of myself like fat Jason. And I just every time I open the refrigerator, is there.

can I do? Question is IT I really not allowed to talk about like fatness now .

or I I have strong feelings on this. I think when I ran marathon's in my whole life, I was very felt one hundred and sixty five pounds until I was thirty two. And then I added two, three pounds until you guys knew me.

And I hit two thirteen at my peak, on one seventy one, now, once seventy two. And, you know, I wish more people would have done an intervention. You were very .

clear with me here, you know, oh god, I tell you can speak the story now. This is your wedding present. Okay, thank you. J, K, L is bordering on more Billy obese.

I was this. I was to their team. Five, nine of day, five hundred.

A good day, by the way, for all.

for all these people on twitter.

everybody who who meets me always says, so you look so much shorter on camera maybe it's because I slaughter, but i'm six for two just in case everybody y's. Anyway, J, K, L is is bordering on morbidly obese so I make .

a wait bt with him.

I said, I think one ninety. I was like, I give you ten k pound or something, was one, was one thousand. And I said, a year, he had a year, he had a year.

A year goes by. I put IT in my calendar. And what I do is I scheduled the poker game for the day before knowing that we're going to play through midnight.

So like, oh, i'm going to set this guy up. So I waited a whole year. unbelievable.

We play poker. The clock strikes. I and I say eight time. It's top one is time for the way, is one way. But and I said, mother kr, you made a .

one for. I have hit the thing I .

so he says he starts panicking because .

I made myself in the morning.

He says he's panicking. He says, okay, give you a few minutes. He runs into my child's bedroom and takes a ship.

I just took a league. I took a league try. 突然 he tried to lose the weight。 Me, who can prove in midnight?

Nobody can prove in midnight. I don't know. I'm one ninety five. And so you want me on my close off? I like, no.

And I, we had to do the way. Now, in fairness of J. L, I did not reagent that.

I had to, that I could pick the time. So he says, I haven't til midnight, which is true. So I said, okay, fine, he goes home, goes home.

I go. He does not. He he puts on the sweat too.

I go for a lot of like rocky around ever.

He sweat for four hours. He gets like a tenth of a pound under before midnight. Yes, and he's like to me one hundred. Then he was kind and he said, look, put me in the many one for one drop.

a drop, and will both a pool loss in .

the first day hands and. The the okay back to but that but I would say on in .

terms of weight IT is principle in america. I don't think we should be celebrating IT or tolerating IT. I think we should be compassionate.

I think examining and will go with um our incredible tools in majora. I don't I didn't talk about IT for the first year, David. You've done in as well and you've honest that you've tried to go you whatever and you lost a lot of gratulations.

These guys have been skinning forever, but I think takes seriously IT takes a lot of discipline but IT can be done and um I encourage people. The gains i've gotten from being forty pounds lighter have been tremendous. I feel great.

My energy levels different. My thinking is different. My sleeps Better. Everything's great. And so I just want to be around for a long time so that we can do a thousand episodes of the show for you in the fans. And yeah, being fat sucks the end and think.

but do you think it's it's being Normal ized and you think that that's healthy?

What do you think? Like, I think right .

into .

the mack phone, no one, no one makes, no one chooses obesity. Obesity is a struggle, just like diabetes. No one chooses diabetes.

Diabetes is a struggle. Done some work to make some investments. But on the board, some companies that have been involved and trying to address the needs in the space.

And one of the things that we've learned a lot about is how much of a social stigma IT feels. People that are struggling with obesity and strugling with diabetes don't feel comfortable actively talking about IT because they hold a deep amount of shame about IT. They recognize that there's something deeply ly unhealthy about IT.

And they feel deep shame because they often portrait is having the choice and making the decisions that got into this point yeah. And the truth is we live in a world with extraordinary abundance in the first world. We live in a world with extraordinary opportunities for low cost calorie consumption.

We find a lot of joy in our lifestyles. And ultimately, living a happy life can lead people to a very sad place. And so generally, I would say that this is not something that should be stigmatic in in an open way. IT should be treated with compassion, but IT should be spoken about openly, which is that there is A A chAllenge, a strugling, that people have, and we need to help, and everyone needs to kind of be commission of the fact.

And I we're Normal alizon, and I think it's wrong. When I first came to canada, you see the pictures when I was, like, fresh off the boat. That's what we used to call immigrants.

I was rail, thin, skinny, real thing. And then after a year of eating whatever food IT was that we could afford, yes, I became really fat, and you could see IT in the pictures. And I was fat all through my great school.

I was a little skinny, but skinny, fat in the face, but basically fat all through high school. And then I finally started working out and taking care of myself. And I had a huge impact on myself, a team and myself confidence.

IT had a huge impact on my health. I saw basically kill. My father is given seven eleven of my ants and uncle s diabetes. So I think that, like all of this, Normalization is unhealthy, because IT actually is killing people.

What I learned from the dating is portion control in amErica is just at a control. IT is the wrong portion sizes. So you see IT here, and you see IT here.

When you read at here, here's a little tuna, here's a small posta, you know, here's some cheese and some grapes were desert. You're done. And so once I got my portion control, I was fine snacking also. But I just wish anybody who suffering from IT with your doctor's work.

you try, you await you for a long time.

Where are you favorite?

yeah. I.

what will you over way from? I.

I grew up not eating well. I was overweight in edge is when I really started to get exercise actively. And because he was never part of my upernavik kid was like eat well, get size I I was very much self taught I had had a cook and learned a lot of about nutrition on my own um and you know look I I I took an action on my own um in my really twenty so but yeah look, I mean, it's so easy to not know where you find yourself and then you find yourself in this place.

And I do agree that being cognizant of where you are and addressing IT in an open way, in an active way, the only can every every cycle we come around with some new easy solution. You guys to remember the was that. And so .

look .

at the data so .

far looks great. Uh, with these G, L, P.

These drugs seem to be very effective.

There's some data now. The child, as soon as you stop taking IT, the the average person on IT gains the weight right back. Now that didn't ham for me, Chris muscle, but maybe not. But like yeah, across a large population, there's just data that showing there's never gna be an easy pop. And it's it's a very difficult.

It's a process. You know the the thing I learned is if you just have like one orio a day for every other day, let's say that's fifty calories. You have one of those every other day, you're going to get two pounds a year for twenty years, nine year, forty pounds await IT happens very slowly, you added.

And then you just have to be super discipline. And you could lose a half, a ponder or a pounds a week, and then they can come off. So I really think that should be a movement in the united states.

So much of our downstream issues, diabetes, heart disease, cancer, seemed to be contributed by obesity. So I think for an entire, for the entire country, I think if I ran for president, IT would be will go v for everybody, everybody. body. Who wants IT?

Gov, for everyone. My .

platform, single voters m getting shape. There are some news I think we we can touch on.

So .

there was .

an article, advice, I guess, that name checked the in podcasts, said Young people, instead of wanting to become machinery consultants, now want to become members of the all in pocket and be venture capital. Excited, a little tweet storm that I thought, and I thought to be a great topic for us. I think for Young people, going into venture early is not a good idea.

I think generally speaking, eighty percent in the cause cases. And I think starting your own company or joining a hye roths company or maybe joining a well run large company or even joining a poorly run large company ties, do you learn what not to do? Are all Better things to do in your twice learn be in the trenches.

But i'm curious what you think sex, yes, about this issue because we came to venture and investing in our forties, I believe both of us Angel investors and then both of us having fun. So what are you vision? A Young person who's listening to the podcast coming out of .

the business school, whatever yeah, I agree with that. I think the main value prop that A V C has to offer a founder is advice. And if you've never walked in the founder shoes before, if you never founded a company at least had a significant Operating a role, how are you in a position, offer them advice. Now I think there's a period of time during the bull market where people stopped thinking that way, stopped thinking that advice. With the model, VC started competing on the base of who could be the biggest cheerleader for the founder, who could offer the most for the positive emotional support.

largest valuation or the .

bias evaluation or at least governance um the idea being completely passive, not taking a board sea was actually sold to founders as a positive for them that like will will invest in will dislike state completely out of the way. And all of those ideas sounded really good when the market was booming and everything was up to the right.

But now where in the situation in which we're going through two years of intense turmoil and a lot of companies aren't going to make IT, a lot of companies are structuring, a lot of comes are going to take downward ds, and actually being able to tap your board for advice on how to get through a rough patch actually is pretty important. You realize now that like the uninvolved, passive investor, that was not a positive value prop, that was an excuse for not having a value prop. And I think at times like this, it's really important to half V, C, who've been around the block, who saw the last downturn, who ideally could have warned you that I was coming like we did on this part.

We did beauty for a year. And so yeah, I think that we're now seeing the correction. And I I finally agree your analysis that there are too many people join the ranks of VC who finally did have a value prop. And that's why i've been in our firm. We are required that everyone to join the investment team have Operating experience and ideally found their experience because that is .

also what you're going to offer for founders who was too much of this people living live action role ying VC with just absolutely no idea how this works. And now what happens to those, you know, actor or vcs who really are faced with portfolios that are upside down and they really have no idea how the weather or warm it's this has been a hard eighteen months, let's be honest.

Well, I think that IT was a symptom of just the fact that there is a lot of free money in the system. And I don't know the outcome is going to be pretty basic, which is that they're gonna lose money for their limited partners. And those limited partners, if they're not totally stupid, will never give these people money again.

And these people will need to just find a new job. And I don't say that in a celebratory way, just a very practical ones and zeros monetary assessment of the facts. Look, I think that the weird thing that has happened, if you came like this kind of fun thing to be able to say you are doing, a lot of people use to moonlight and do IT on the side.

Then there are all these services that will allow you to basically like abstract the job. But the only thing that I would just qualify your statement because I think what you're saying is like ninety percent right. But I don't think that's where the craziest outcome returns have come from because if you look at the two people that are really or the three people that are really generated just gargano home returns on a consistent basis, one of them, for example, like mike mortes, really didn't have those bonefish Operationally.

But I think that what mike probably has, and i'm saying this not knowing him, is a preter neural like judge of psychology. I think I think he's an incredibly qualify people judge. And there are people like that now he's an outlier in order to do that. But the rest of us have to kind of, to your point, do with what we have, which is like here's our experience in our maturity. We're telling you what we think. So i'm really excited actually for this wave to kind of crash on shore because the number of founders that are you gonna get screwed over by folks I don't know what they're talking about is very high yeah and that needs to come to an end as .

quick as ah I don't think it's just mike mortes. I think that there's a class of successful venture capitalist. Bill girl is a great example like he was an animals. Danny Raymond, index ventures was an investment analyst.

Fred Wilson, fred Wilson.

yes, life time, B C. And more. Its john door. But there is there are folks who have an incredible analytical capacity, and that analytical capacity translates into incredible selection capability. That selection doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to necessarily be the best advisers.

And i'm not saying that any of those folks are bad advisers, but there are some venture investors like founder funds very vocal about this and very public about this, that their objective is not to be your partner and helping you make decisions, run your company and recruit people. And all the other sort of regional that many vcs go out, they're there to pick the best founders. And the best founders don't need the V, C, to be successful.

And their job then is to have incredible selection capacity. So if they can select the best founders and get out of their way, they've made a lot of money and their returns are unbelievable. And then there are some VC who were really incredible partners to their founders.

And they object the josh couple in the first round, building entire firm around this practice, which is the partner very closely with founders and to build supporting capabilities in recent horror, which was built on the same sort of concept that they would roll all of their fees into building Operating important capacity to support founders and support companies. Both firms have obviously done well on their own right. Um and so I don't know if this necessarily one breed that predict success when IT comes to successful venture capital.

I will say for my own personal experience, I worked as an investment banker for my first two years out of undergrad. I you know that I had a science background. I worked in a short stint private equity.

I worked at google. I did cordelia mn a there. I started the company, ran IT salted, did that with another business. I was on the board. So i've been on a couple of different places around the table that, you know, I think i've given me the ability to to provide advice.

I don't know if I necessarily have the same skill set that the team founders fund and um mike mortals and others might have at this stute extraordinary ability to spot founders and bring a man. So I think everyone needs to kind of recognize what they do bring in the table, be very clear about what that is. And I think, to your point, there has just been an incredible bull market over the last fifty and years since two thousand and eight more money.

Has I heard an incredible statistic, by the way, I don't want to get IT wrong. So maybe we should fact check me after this from someone that you're wedding who I was talking to for a long time. And he was like, he was like, basically the top one percent of vcs didn't beat.

What would have happened if you just bought the top five public tech companies and you know effectively did a rebaLance over the past fifteen years? The ball market and the um the aggregation of value in technology have largely been fifty fifty to public and private. So you could have just bought a few stocks and held on to them and beat all of the VC over the last fifty years, even though a lot of VC have made good money in their irr looks like twelve percent.

but you have to beat the risk of just returns on venture. And this is not to throat IT. Even all of those people that you mention are fuck in terrible like you should not have invested in any of those because there's no way to turn IT in any of those funds because you get a small allocation, one fund as well.

three fund s do crappy over the past ten years or fifteen years, i've got the number. We've seen the public market cap of these top tech companies grow from one trillion to ten trillion. That's a ten x.

So all you had to do was by those. And you want to make ten x, and that works out to north of twenty five percent I R. yeah. And there is very few vcs that have been able to be twenty five percent I R. They assume now he was telling me his model shows that over the next ten years, it'll be roughly seventy thirty. So it'll be about thirty percent grew and and making over the next ten years, it's going to go from ten trillion to twenty five trillion, which is still a great return just but that shows how much of a hurdle there is invention to be successful.

I started the business in twenty eleven. So now this is the twelve of thirteen fear, just how hard this game is. I had about a thirty one, thirty two percent gross I R R going into last year, and then my air r fell off a Cliff because I couldn't.

In the obviously, there's like there's no money to distribute. My eyr started to decay and then I had this really, really fucked up choice. I have to start selling stuff earlier than I would have otherwise to get the money back out. So to your point, right now, it's courage. It's a really tough game over one to press a really tough game.

I I think there's also something going on, you know, in the united states in society where there are some idealized jobs we talked about, sex even leads, serve plussing leads. And I I want to debt to this with what's happening in hollywood. Writer strike and the actor strike.

And I was looking at IT, there's some unbelievable number of actors and sex, some unbelievable number writers. They all make, uh, just incredibly small amounts of money on average. And obviously, there's some big fish.

You do well, but IT just seem like there's too many people who want too many of these idealized jobs, and venture is one of those. And I just would like Young people to understand. Also, be careful what you wish for. This job has seen easy, just like that might seam easy for tom cruise or Christopher noel when you see them, our tertasse. What you don't see is all of the people who try to become trentino who tried to become, you know, tom cruise.

And there are far ten, fifteen years before they realized .

they're not and they did not actually have the fundamental skills or the work ethic is that is required to become trentine. I listen to trenton's podcast. He does have you heard the video? R cast? You have to get on this.

It's hemon is the co writer of who did you write paul fiction with Rogers haman? My favorite is right now they just talk about films. Their knowledge of films is so unbelievable.

And the detail in which they talk about that IT is so crisp they finish each other sentences in the way that maybe you listen to this podcast, you know, we all go, oh, john door, I know he worked at in town. Oh, this person, yeah, but he was journalists. We have a deep, deep understanding of this business that comes from thirty years within IT or twenty years.

And I think you have to do. I know that sounds, cory, but you have to pay your dues. You have to put sixty, seventy hours in a week to get that of the job. And the problem today, I feel, is and for people who are listening for Young people coming out of schools, if you're not willing to sacrifice sixty, seventy, eighty hours a week for a decade or two, you're just not going to be successful in that.

by the way. And Young people push back on this. And I think the simplest way to reframe IT is in the following. Do you really think, for example, let's pick N, B, A baseball.

Do you think you would be really interested or find credible that the best player in the NBA only practice three hours a week that happened. What do you think they're practicing three hours in the morning and then also three hours in the afternoon and they give up their lives. The most incredible thing that I saw the NBA, was all of these men literally gave up their life to play that game to perfect.

And that's true for anything. And so I don't understand how whether you're a filmmaker, whether you want to be an investor, whether you want to be an athlete, whether you want to be an actor, a surgeon, it's just like it's an immutable, able law of physics. So, so just get over IT, which is you need to put in tens of thousands of hours. And if you cannot or won't, you should not expect the success and you should .

not complain and and also because it's not free guys really you know yeah look I me Brown twenty was twenty sixteen when they came back .

and one again seven yeah right .

but um the next day know his teammates go and celebrate you know what brand IT on instagram the next day posted a photo at seven A M of work yeah working out but look, one thing i'll say, lebron knows what his skill is and he knows what his game is. I think every individual needs to figure out what their skill is and what their game is, and not to find glory in what others have found to be their skill and their game.

That there is something that comes from mastering any craft that gives an individual joy and purpose in life. And you see this in basketball. You see IT, when he's athletes, really find what they love.

And they do IT and they commit to IT. And there are things that we each have realized we are good at, and there are things that we've all certainly realized we are not good at. And identifying that mastering one's craft is the key. Any person being successful and happy, I believe I just just assuming that there's A A thing out there that .

everyone makes money to just all of our lives to swimming and so hard.

my good word, look at my wife, who. God, my day at the giant, but beauty in the best you can relate breakfast .

like my wife must have .

those of the team because she's married to me .

so the best life is like if you google nato ally, don't pay you find this picture of her holding a tiger aligned by the.

by the tail, which is a lot more sign, and holding a .

free lunch by .

the slog. H.

how we play. And with me for thanks to the rose last night, I was like loving guy every time he had .

IT I back the deal and of the wait, oh my god.

happened that told me what happened. So the back story is filled me with is an artist.

You know, if you know, film hammers, you know that yeah.

that's imply and he just cannot give a speech. And his friend we know is .

not my .

best um but he gives orrible speeches.

I mean, he here are best speech. Well well, every speech he gears at every event.

It's all about himself. It's all about him. M that's why we say seven seconds to fell but .

it's incredible because IT is a well said, feels like to give a speech, feels like, of course, i'm going to give a speech. Every speech I give is amazing.

I tell you everything .

that that the last event I gave a speech, IT brought the house down. Everyone was laughing. I killed IT. IT was .

oil brand fero. Oh my god, no.

you what you feel that you .

so I ask, I asked how you to do to do this to and I was like, okay, well, it'll do four of them. But I thought.

if we start with how you, it'll just be so bad. I .

yeah, crushed IT, crushed IT .

made up the stairs. I was like.

I was hard to step to that. Very impressed.

Do anybody see .

up harmer so excited?

This be a arber doubeni mer wedding.

not barber I wearing in.

That's I been the barber I was and I said I had no like .

so about seventy million appear cities like to watch IT. We know let's rent IT this week i've rented IT it's .

I think it's .

so down to be very little we just have to call .

them and say, hey, can we I want Christopher alan came and spoke and got to medium and speak to him afterwards. He's a very soft spoken guy and he's not very sociable. He doesn't, you know, like sex. You don't want to make I contact and actually talk with you, but you know we chAllenge.

are you making one of people?

But he was great.

I mean, hello, pot. It's keno calling.

Uh I will say um he's is what top three file makers of our time top four there is .

a great for me. It's really Scott currently now knowler there is a very funny where .

where's your less sex I .

got say on oh right of course, the now no pa million .

wave in a mess.

what you to mention.

I mean.

so you.

it's hard to watch now.

It's hard to watch the hole I kes. Go no neck next to those there is a very funny moment on the the first the first dinner yeah you know we did this great thing you neck people up the names when SAT down everybody's like the and I was waiting for David is said.

yeah and he just keep talking .

and talking yeah talking and talking and finally, not what like sit the fuck out right now and how to get this working thing going .

so who do you got? You get processing, of course.

Yeah you're time about like currently a live filmmakers. I think film kers, you must pretty good. I have to think about IT for missing anybody.

Yeah, really.

Scott up there for you. Yeah, yes, really, Scott. yeah. I think he's making Christ.

No, and is pretty exxon. He's dick.

I met .

Michael .

bay in coastal A.

Can you did you getting get the story?

That's like a can you did you ask for the thirty dollars back for transformers?

No, I mean, I didn't take cully .

know you can watch any of guy. I watch. Yes.

nice guy. And I great and .

amazing.

I think.

King, I kind of interesting.

I hate to go deep into the, you guys want to talk about sert bed behavior, or you want to talk about the resolution of the hollywood stuff and what that means writ large.

Well, the holy stuff I created about this a couple days ago, my observations on this were too fold. One is that it's going to have the exact opposite effect that they want, if what they want is what the writers and the actors guild want is to show the owners of the studios how valuable they are. The problem is that this moves the owners and the studios one step closer into the hands of tools that will just immediate the actors.

And the writers fill embrace the technology. They will embrace the A I. Tools that you guys have talked about. You are showing something around even like yesterday, but whatever. So like the point is like I don't see IT is very effective.

And then my second thought is like I just think the unions in general are probably not a very effective way to get these concessions anymore versus the tax that the union members pay. And you can just see that in terms of like the number of people in unions are just kind of decaying pretty quickly. The wage gains are pretty to minimize. It's just not an effective mechanism .

of negotiation sex. The unions are away for average performers to fight to get a little bit more about it's the antithesis of having a meritocracy and people fighting for their best possible pay. And so the kuni have is i'm seeing all these marvel actors, superhero actors getting dropped off at the protest and they're complaining about Bobbye er or make into twenty five million when tom cruise or you rober down into two year picked the person.

I'm not single in anybody out, but those people who got to the top of the heat after twenty, thirty, forty years in the business are getting paid fifty million a picture and one hundred million a picture of backwards. And and so what you take on what's going on here, because there IT seems that I don't want to say hit a critical, but IT feels like they are talking about both sides of the amount they want to have. An auction should the highest bitter for these incredibly talented writers, directors, producers, as IT should be. But then they also want to fight for the average.

right. Some of the union demands, I think, are reasonable, and I understand why they want them. So for example, I think they are arguing for more visuals for, like you said, the kind of lower level performers so that they can get health care average ones yeah so I can understand that at the same time, they're demanding that writers rooms not use a software which they .

are already .

doing yeah which is is crazy because AI is going to incorporate to all software. So to not be able to use the latest features of whatever word or google dogs or whatever screen ring software, yes, that's like the king who order the time to stop is the march of technology is not going to work. So I think that's like really off face.

So I can specialize with some of the demands. Other ones. I think you are hard to see in terms of your point about the economics.

I mean, look that the basic problem that with hollywood is it's not going to take all business. I mean, you've got a few actors who become big stars. This is true actually with all the creative industries is their power law businesses. You know, J, K, rolling makes a billion dollars as an author, the ten thousand author.

that makes me, yes, exactly.

yeah. Can never make a limit. And the reason for that, by the way, is because there's a lot of people are going to do for free. Humans are funny, created. There's a lot of people willing to be actors for free or bonus of systems, right or right or whatever creatively, because we're willing to do there are for free posters, right? And so the reality is the reason hollywood doesn't ough to pay these sort of the entry level actors very much is there's all a lot of people.

many people, and he doesn't need to be .

in a structured red production system and anymore, you guys saw the latest disney earnings release, and iger said we are going to consider selling natural and a bunch of mother meals. There may actually be a spin off because content creation for that mid teal that tale no longer make them profitable because there's so much content being generated by this very long tail that's a crowing, a lot of the eyeballs and a lot of the hours of consumers minds certain time.

I I think that there's a big that idea. So we are talking earlier about career choices. So first fall, I agree with what you guys said about the time can you have to make, but it's not really about time per say. It's about your obsession level.

Can you be obsessed with something so that sixty, seventy hours a week feels like nothing to you because you're so immersed, you're so obsessed with that, the way that turn, and every obsess with classic films of the whole database in their head. So if you want to pursue one of these careers in a winner take all space, like writing, like acting, whatever, you Better to be completely up. Be all in. Yeah, you got got to be all in. I say, furthermore.

the unique make you novel. yeah.

I mean, even if you are all in, you still have to have luck.

yes. And furthermore, you have know where the bar is. So I think a lot of people, this, one of things I knows when I brucine a movie is a lot of people look at like the worst actor or the worst screenwriter and say, i'm Better than that person, so I want to.

But your bar is not the worst person who is made IT. Your bar is the best person who hasn't made IT. That's the person really can be next up is the next up is the person you're going on auditions and your competing. Someone doesn't maybe yeah, but they are amazing and you don't necessary know where that are is is much hard to see yeah, but that's where the bar really is.

I think there is also a big disruption. And as we extend the long tail of consumer content creation into what is effectively now the infinite tale of AI generation A I generated content creation, IT is going to totally disrupt and change the game of media of content.

Generally speaking, we're getting to a point now where you can effectively tie together rendering engines with scripting, with scene definition, with the Victorian lines, all the stuff that IT goes into preproduction and production um can be generated uh through through A I through scripting and then tuned and tweaked by a human, but ultimately increases the scale like all technologies do. IT increases leverages for humans. And we could see one hundred times more films come out, each of which costs one one hundred, the costs, you know, one of the best production .

companies in a lays x and they make .

a bunch of them because they cost so little to make. And if any one of them hits, they make a hundred eight million box of two or million box of the box office to fantastic business. John refills. It's very much a unique model in hollywood, and it's really changed the game quite a bit. And I think we're going to see something similar emerged because of generate A I in the tool and then people start what is the what is h but um I look one thing one thing .

I do want to say.

I do think that there's also a change in hollywood that's going to be driven, as we talked about before, by the ability to generate personalize film, personalize content rather than one piece of content for everyone where you have to make block customers and everyone watches IT. There is a question, however, of culture and culture is you know shared experience stories and beliefs.

Shared experience stories and beliefs can still be realized through personalized media, through personalized um content generation. Think about you know, an old narrative and old tail that was told, know, the a people speaking to each other around a campfire, that the ethics and the morals of the story are still there. But everyone tells us a little bit differently.

I think that's what we may end up seeing. Hollywood production or A I generated production, which is everyone tweet their content in their own personal way. They consume IT in their own way.

But the hollywood d studios, how much of a role did they ultimately end up playing? And does this start to go ten times more? We've seen in youtube, content consumption goes way up and the number of folks that are contributing to IT goes way up by ten or hundred .

X I I think this is one of the fundamental things that the unions and hollywood I have not yet grown completely, which is they're not fighting each other. They're fighting chickened k. Youtube podcasts and people making .

their own content that they're .

fighting. They're fighting Jimmy .

donors .

and they're ting mr.

They're each other. Us right on about .

the two less hours. It's two less hours of brocas. T.

V. And then in mr. Beest, these kids watch his videos five times. They what he's .

probably the only person in recent memory that has rebuilt, uh, event base viewership because people know saturday mornings at noon eastern time is when these videos drop hundreds of millions. Appointed television is an appointment television now back, by the way, when you hear you know the story of mister piece, that's a guy that's been doing IT sce. He was thirteen years old. He's twenty four years old. So that's the eleven years where he's literally only lived in breathe .

everything and .

in the energy generation in the lab down to the very pixel right. Like when heat, for example, like the cuts memory told us about like thumbnails. Here's an entire P H, D. Fees that he's learned just on thumbnails.

Yeah and that's eleven ment commit. I think what hollywood needs to do just to put IT out there, is the the leadership. And hollywood gets compensated on a corporate level, and then they come up with this, you know, pay and sometimes residual, sometimes not, and scraps for the talent.

I would encourage them to read something like an order biography by Chris sa and study the toho system where everybody was aligned inside the company. If i'm running disney, i'm hiring the top two of three hundred writers, putting them full time on staff, giving them equity and getting everybody rowing in the right direction. They do not have time to around.

They need to be in alignment, making great content. But the incentive structure matters if bob bikers getting compensated by stock options. The actors, Robert Denny, junior, who is the guy, the incredible director of swingers .

and federal.

I was talking to federal at an event, and I was like, how much like equity in disney did you get for doing Manda loran and like launching disney plus for them? And he's like, zero.

zero. I like. Why do if you if you look at back up a hundred know but if you look, and this is what's crazy, you look at the biggest content producers of that older generation. They locked up the equity. No spill berg owns equity in the movies that he may George lucas ones equity .

in the movie diocles is cut on open hymir no, I think he gets uh twenty percent of the growth of the first dollar. That's so yeah and he got a hundred million dollar budget, one hundred million marketing comment. Uh on the on the video .

a joker was uh, taught phillips what is .

a perfect Philips actually guy yeah great guy. And he waved his fee on joker to take a big chunk of the equity because .

he did that on the .

hangover and he owned the IP of the hangover. He owned the sequel and hang over one and two. amazing.

Hang over three, you can miss this. But he made more, and they got to hang over three. yeah.

And he got all those guys, galaxy, they got their biggest payday. And number three, right? You have to craft the deal. We have equity.

The other, dio, the studio was less polish than he was on, both hanging over Angel .

or because .

unusual movies, so they allowed him to take equally in exchange for giving them.

like you only want to spend fifty million on a superhero film that's never gonna work. And that is like a made a billion joker, made a billion.

I thought IT .

was too dark edition.

Ces, tell you very funny stock .

right now.

I'm going to write IT out. I think their IP collection is amazing. I think there's a chance that you know, depending on how uh, the ftc winds up being run over the long term, that disney could be selling pieces at that business. And I think that I could become an acquisition target itself at some point.

You want to hear a taught phillips pocus.

Y, I play a part with him.

Yeah his hot phillips is a very, very disciplined poker player. You know, he's got like a stop loss. He hits the stop loss.

He's done and he's very funny and jokes around, you know, bus balls, whatever. And there was a lot where he would play the big game in ally with us. And he didn't say much.

He was very focused on titers, right? And then he did the deal and then hang over three comes out and all of a sudden know he's got tripping chips. Is bus in the part? I bus phillips in a pot and he looks at me and he called me slumdog billionaire. And the guys of the day thought I was so funny because that movie slum dog millionaire had just out. So then they all started calling me slumming slum like to IT took me a year for that to get stop calling yeah for today on the united.

i'll tell you stories. So recently I just announced that anchor steam shut down. And cursin was this beer, this native beer.

And somewhere cisco, that's been around forever. Japanese bury boat. And right? IT was bred by support .

of several years ago.

shot down, uh.

yeah I together all the time for like work vent and go to the, yes.

I was like one .

of the original mark .

of .

award winning beer, iconic. What's out a business now? And the reason is what was losing money and you want to a lie, is because three years ago, the workers all voted to unionize.

They're only something like sixty workers, sixty two workers. And three years ago, they have voted to unionized and they voted themselves big pay increases. And so I guess support how to go along with that three years later supports like .

yeah shut the all thing down and .

that's the things you're .

going to be cared. I really with .

they get wrong is unions fight for exactly this, which is this short term increase in current compensation. And I think what unions do very poorly is actually understanding the long term equity that the employees and members of the union actually create. I tweet this a few weeks ago as well, but the single biggest reason that motivated me when I sold my piece of the warriors was obviously just a crazy increase in evaluation, right? I bought up for a one hundred, and there was worth five point two billion at the time of.

But the second biggest reason was my huge fear was that I, as an owner, I just want to to cash the chips, because I think the most right thing to do for the union, like the NBA players association, is the fight for equity. Yeah, it's like Michael Jordan single handley has created fifteen billion dollars of equity in the MBA yep, how much as he captured one or two, but not from the league, he captured IT accidentally from shoes, right? How much money is lebron James actually created for the M. B.

A? It's enormous. yes. How much he he not .

to get .

the right piece of the also, when the businesses do well, then the the labor contract become a source of huge flexibility.

You you can shut down down to your point, like when you when what happens now is there's these huge luxury taxes in professional sports and so folks bloat the payroll. They try to get all these players. But if you don't win and get to the playoff s you're not selling more merch, you're not getting incremental share of TV revenues.

You're not getting ticket revenues. And all of a sudden you have these massive log taxes you have to pay and not enough revenue to pay for IT. And so these teams all of a sudden now start to gush money, have to make capital calls, because these things that sound incredible up front start to become real weights on these businesses. The real thing, all unions in all industries, I would I would tell you all to do is figure out how to get the equity upside in the business in which your members are working in and are .

creating value IT, right, in an exchange that have more forgiven us on the downside to the this is .

actually possible whether .

the storm .

is talking to they had of one of the giant publishers. I won't say which one given ess insider. I don't know which one I was but um they were being unionized and I said, wow is a disaster for your business he said, oh, jack, a great thing ever.

I said why he's like now when people come to us and they wanted get paid more, we just take out the chart how many years you've been here oh, five, okay, yeah. One, two, three, four, five, seventy two thousand and I said, well, you know what? I bring more page what I think, yes, okay, page you multiplier point one five, okay, say you seventy eight k and just basically is a business .

or yes and who knows.

apply. Why there a click bait business? And then that drives .

perverse incentives. And like, why not a wine IT with what is the profitability of the business? What is the growth of the business, a bonus pool, a base level of pay.

And if the unions are coming in, they are literally rearranging the chairs, the titanic. And is that simple? You you both .

the beer industry and hollywood are both the drinking industries. And so when you got unions demanding more, more and more of a shrinking pie, something's going to break. Now look, just to be clear, i'm in favor of unions demanding things like Better working conditions and health care and just like the basics yeah but you know when they try to go for things like I know a banana, A I and and proposals that distorted the cost structure, the business to the point where is is not feasible. It's not profitable.

That is a word. Also, the question is White collar workers who can move so freely between jobs. So in lead, why would any White collar worker who is learning and sharpening their blade and increasing their value year after year? Why would they even want to join a union? There was a podcast union that started in spotify and giving late media all of this stuff. And one of the pockets, I think I was reply all, they didn't want to join the union because, like, we're overcompensate to wear a hit show, and they were all claim that .

they were something in the schools.

But now you can get rid a bad teacher because they are in the union. So it's like a huge procedure.

So they put him in the building where .

the in company teachers can. I the pro case of joining a union in two thousand twenty three.

I mean, if you could get benefits like a some basic lever of benefits.

everybody like I, I think that the pitch and jack out this is why I ask you this a few episodes ago. You know tell us your experience having grown up in a family that I think unions are pretty proliferate in these um cop fireman copy yeah I mean if you the pitch is your part of a membership, you have a voice and that voice always is your cate. And that advocate looks out for benefits comp time off, whether or not and how you get fired, all the things that you feel you may be unfairly treated by management. There's nothing novel here and it's a strong appeal point.

I don't know if that the best steel made for because because look, employ, it's a competitive labor market if you have skills that companies want. So you should feel to negotiate for all these things yourself. I think the still main case for unions and the reason why they formed in the first place, is because american industry was basically owned by an oligopoly.

They were themselves monopoly. So if you have a monopoly of industries like U. S.

Steel or minor oil, then there's not a competitive labor market. They have set the Prices, they set the conditions. That's why the unions got started.

Is united a racy monopoly labor to face off against a monopoly business? That's how I got started. And I think in those conditions were talking about the early one thousand nine hundred.

And people are losing limbs. In factory course.

he was very king, different working. This is now you're talking about much more competitive industries.

but look like manual labor needed to get productivity out of businesses and enterprise. So you know, so much of industry changed where things became automated, where they became specialization, a different nation amongst workforce. And IT was in everyone of just using their arms to do things. And you know, this is obviously now measurable. And the idea that you can basically you capture management or do a hostile takeover of the corporation of the equity, I I think is effectively what's happened with a lot of these these.

be honest, knowing what I know about unions. If you were to do a deep dive into, you know, the police unions or the firefighter unions, or the sAnitation ation unions or the teacher unions, and you look at their pensions and they're overtime, you would see some pretty significant abuse that the unions have built up over years to wear. People can make three or four hundred dollars a year in the last two or three years.

They goose that up because then they base their pension. On the average of the last three years. And what basically happens is all the senior guys say, listen all over time goes to these three guys who are retiring in three years, and none of the junior guys can take any over time. And what is your turn right? You get that all that and then we're going to goose your pay.

So what that does unreasonably, yes, is the pension calculation. The pay into the pension is based on some assumption today. As that starts to happen, the pensions become underfunded because they no longer have enough capital to make all the dispersants are susumu sed to happen. And there is a big argument now that there's probably over a trillion dollars of underfunded pension liabilities in the united states, many of which are based on the fact that these payout principles were defined by someone negotiation .

of the union and their game. And there's a large difference between somebody writing a list cal or rewriting a washington post and business elisa al, business allister al yeah somebody we're writing oyster al buz feed or you know somebody rewriting a welshy journal paywall story in business insider, then somebody running into a running into a burning building or you know right, having a target on their back as a cop in several cco.

These are very different jobs, and the y color knowledge workers are lasting. what? What's he have? A chinese right now, thirty six months, thirty months. I mean, you're obviously moving from place to place. What's the point of the union .

is the competitive labor market. And to your point, it's true that in some cases, the unions do get a Better deal for their members. However, there is a deadweight loss for the union itself because the unions representing its own .

interest one and half percent.

So they're .

taking something, they are .

got a thing.

they're a sin.

a that says, movie, was that .

the ara you really to take to the corruption.

everybody in the role into my projects or whatever? I mean, that's like a while ago. But yeah.

there something get downside. My view of IT is we lived in a decade of surplus and needs, you know, having these luxury jobs. And i'll put in the luxury jobs being a journalist, being a venture capitalist.

You know, these are latest luxury jobs, and in some of them, they became so wildly overcompensated. I think they wanted to feel OPPO. They wanted to feel like they need a representation. And I think they were lipping to use the terming and live action role that they we're going to be in a union .

like they wanted victims.

right? They wanted to like, literally the business insider. People were putting up pictures of herry.

blogger and his grievances, yes.

and they're on the street holding a picket sign up. And i'm like, what's the matter? Is your keyboard not ergonomic enough at home?

You haven't been .

to an office in three .

fucking years, the years .

Q U Q U cAmbers. I mean, like leave the unions for the people who are actually on the front lines. It's right. So I think, well.

we could rap, good rap. We rap is crap signs corner actually .

room no .

actually it's a very interesting 有。

few episodes ago, if you if you don't remember, you kind of can go back and watch IT um where I talk a little bit about the effort to try identify a material that can be super conducting a room temperature, which means no resistance.

Electrons can flow through the material with no resistance, perfect electricity transfer across distance, and also enables the lives, in effect, where magnetic waves can reflect off of the material, which can allow things like levitating trains, which is very low friction transportation. All these benefits of superconducting materials, quantum computing at set up. So yesterday, and i've gotten literally dozens of emails and notes about this in the last twelve hours, there is a paper published by a team in south korea who seem like a very legit team.

There's no reason why they would kind of make up a fraudulent claim that there is a material that they've identified and measured to show has superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure, where a lot of these efforts historically have been made at room temperature, but they use two hundred times atmosphere ic pressure to compressed IT and IT turns out that this material that they're using is a OLED h appetite, which is A A hax agenor Crystal that uses Katie's fate and LED, and that some of the of the LED gets replaced with copper. And the copper causes the hacks ago on the cryo structure to impress a little bit that compressed cyst al allows the electronic of flow through. This is the theoretical explanation.

What's going on? IT will be replicated. People will try and do what they are now claiming they did to demonstrate this.

There are some condensate matter physics people that send me an email and said they don't think that this is real. They have great deal of skepticism. Let me sorry, let me just say two things about this. Um you can read the paper, you can read the paper, it's on the internet, the camera acts.

glasses on. He sleeping behind here. He's just all let me.

let me take things, things. Firstly, I think it's unlikely that these guys are going to make a if they did make a fragile claim, IT would be the end of their careers or reputation would be damaged. So that may happen .

if they did not make a frag.

if they did not make a fraudulent claim. And IT is and IT does turn out to be real, then I do think it'll end up being the the most important discovery in physics of this century.

okay. So each plate order .

front or univer joking .

about IT, but we talk about the importance of this material in technology .

everyday. The thing that you're saying, the more generalized concept, is we have such a poor understanding of the period table.

just broadly speaking, of the matter of physics, so much about physics and and mechanics. Still we literally around looking around trying to figure out what's going on. And you would to discovery.

suppose the discovery i've made this analogy before. But if you take the period table and IT actually kind of looks like the united states of america, we have like a really good sense of like the upper northwest and like the east coast, and otherwise we don't know anything. And I think IT was about two half years ago at the beginning of the pandemic.

There are these three guys and I, that started with this idea of just building some machine learning to experiment in silica around different materials, right? And can you guess physical properties? And if you think these properties are Better at a certain thing, and we then go and actually make the samples and figure out and we point to IT at batteries and we said, let just take the cheapest form of batteries.

Aloha with him, right? That's used in the model three and must make Better L, F, P. And what we're finding is fully shut like we don't know anything.

And there are these like really big breakthrough one, which will probably announce them like the next few weeks because we just raise a bunch of money around this idea. But it's all just people experimenting Better and smarter. And really, what you find is that there are just aren't enough for those people doing IT. And so the cycle time is just too long.

Well, this is where A I can actually have some it's incredible .

game transformational .

as A I get smarter, put in the inputs you give IT the data set. We don't know what it's going to come up with. And I could profoundly.

the Better version part of .

trees are understanding of this.

This korean team did as they they had a separate paper that they published, talking about the demonstration of using A I to try and be predictive around quantum mechanics, which is something that people said we can't really do quantum modeling until we get quantum computers and so there husb this belief that once we get quantum computers will be able to understand the physics uh of uh of the quantum scale and be able to do modeling that will allow us to do more discovery. But we are still very much just poking around and puri zing. And every cycle, by the way, in superconductor research there is a different theory on what causes super conductivity and IT shows so how little we .

do actually yes yeah. So these guys, basically when we you are trying to build. So if you if you look like a tesla model x right? Or model x, these are nmc or nc a batteries, right? Very, very, very energy rich, but also very expensive and very complicated batteries that won't scale to the average everyday car.

And what was crazy in our attempt to take L, F, P, which is the cheap version, and make IT as keep the cheap ess. But as energy dances and M C N N, C, A, we ended up doping IT with all kinds of and himself that you would have never guessed in a million years, given billions of dollars, as you would, you needed computers to go off and actually make these guesses. So this idea that we're going to find all the stuff of the period table bumbling around, I think, is such an interesting part of physical sciences.

And again, this will lead to infinite energy storage in batteries. Yeah, you can put electricity into a battery. You have a superconducting battery.

And IT would cycle forever. no. And then you could just plug in and get the energy back out. So imagine infinite stories on batteries international circuit lately. So you, there are already superconducting circuits that are using quantum computers and other higher applications, but because they are so expensive to cool and so expensive to Operate, they're not ubiquitous.

But the power of having them be ubiquitous would be extraordinary computing for discovery, for A I, for modeling, the applications vote will end up discovering, because of the modeling we can now do in a more ambitious ways, is going to be incredible. There is a very profound moments when they do. And if they do happen, we should be excited, optimistic, but obviously very, very cautious ous about .

a where and when I love you what. And so thankful that you guys came and showed up. That really means a lot to me.

Thank you. I guys. Thank you very, very much for I.

everybody at the all in summit. My god.

yum um is sit in like in this .

is like six weeks more, a little more. You have a new part.

you a person have a new person pronounce.

I will announce IT and then we'll take IT out if it's not okay. But we did confirm radoi OS and will add him to the speaker list. We've got a few other guests who were not going to announce that will be last minute.

Fun surprises for everyone, some fun surprises at the end.

Excited we're closing and yeah how the parties going for the .

for the parties we have narrower down to three things. We are going to be a lot of fun. Opening night a sunday night, the day before the event starts, september ten of that is you the locations yeah um we are negotiating the final contracts with the locations. We read about a dozen of them and we're going na narrow down to the three that give us the best flexibility will have the floor plan, which is the last step. Um you know you got like six weeks yeah I know it's we have more than enough options now so sunday .

out handling the parties me and the part you know you .

want .

to hear a great old story yeah but let me just .

go through the three yeah, the three party theme. So opening night is gonna best to royal the best who love me a James bond me so what is or you go a bond girl, or you go as Austin powers, anything in that me caso games. But no black tuxedo.

You go. Black taxi to go, right? Tuxedo, you can go.

You crack. You can go. Show on cory Roger back you go.

Show you .

what I like.

black talks. I tried .

the White x for. I look .

like a waiter and so be like spo.

and then monday night .

we have a butt.

Monday night is going to be busy. Club, breakfast club, big eighties. The location is incredible by one side.

but not to be confused with fight club or j and I get a red finch each other.

We work everything .

out of the board meeting. yeah.

Do we work everything out between?

You get more meeting, right? Where you are .

embracing aftertimes. I saw the tube embracing.

of course. We had to be tried to give him a hug.

IT was not, let me was like you ever see three P, O trying to an there's a four hundred seventy two to one chance that you're my best day oh, and then the last night IT will be best to runner a blade runner. Send up a cyberpunk theme, wear your best cyberpunk.

a good like punch up person for this kind of stuff.

like a good art .

rector department in .

the no that's .

level two in the basement .

sub level two in the basement of .

the costumes so know how you .

haven't been walking in the streets .

of alon me net and where we're walking just on via montenapoleone in milan and I hear china and I turned around its damian burton on the city of lauria ana and think and so he comes he said, we're so excited to be a part of the all in summer and like, oh my god.

this is not .

tell you oh no is .

not happening .

you know know they .

are questioning every seat with hard anyways, I saw damian very excited. He's coming, yes, but he's see. And we have .

long here.

You had every opportunity these last three days to do everything you needed .

to get a positive on. There is listening .

the guys right there.

The end. The first you see the yacht right there. That's his boat.

This is his restaurant.

This is his restaurant. I can't do enough. I can't do anymore that let s get on the dani, go to off your phone to pay attention.

Yeah, get playing. Go to stop playing chess. And you.

Ve IT out that we believe IT out. Here's what happens. The guy freebase comes up with in a panic.

Oh, we've a problem. Check out the protection is got a problem. They are going to kick out the restaurant.

The I don't think it's gonna a problem. I going to fix IT in february. How gonna fix this? Like, well, I owned the east and so we .

thought .

and and. He's saat besides for a whole day who is on the board and I said, IT, she's on the board. So if you this is your moment, you sold out their hats. And if this is David, cut to David.

people hold on. Oh.

oh, I hold on the Peter till and I are can level four, my basement.

I mean, a game of blitz with Peter till. Hold on playing blitz chess .

by .

writing is not everybody .

live from portofino .

for thank.

your.

World, man.

We open sources .

to the fans and lazy me.

You should all just get a room and just have one big, huge orgy, because they all like this, like sexual attention, but they.

B 我 一定。

去 给我。