E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA Governor, Big Tech earnings & more
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This is an incredible fashion disaster reaction, David. Taxes stress like where's well though facebook, facebook is dressed .

like driving a fuck.

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Hi everybody. Everybody is another episode of the all in podcast, episode thirty one with us today. From was this rolled out of bed, the queen of can walk himself. David free .

berg is here. Tokay get that.

It's not gonna .

have you been setting the homeless problem by by yourself going .

out on the streets or what .

we need to do in into vegetable? I'm going .

to go change.

Give me minutes up. We have to keep the freeburg really ratio up. I had somebody stopped me in miami and say, keep the freeburg ratio high also with us timing in is wear while to himself. The skipper, David, that raman skip is here.

Don't change my nickname. Don't change my nickname. I'm come for red man. Don't tell me.

Definite, definitely okay with rain men, of course. Not the skipper, not the skipper. And the dictator himself got a full night sleep. I hope this .

time I really .

do hopeth ia, and of course i'm jack. How the baby seal here in miami. Look at the view, how beautiful it's been. An incredible, incredible week the tiger has been unleased. I went to Austin now in miami.

Check out A P.

I A big announcement. Ten pounds are gone. Five to go.

I'm lifting weights outside of miami. It's been amazing. Field report, I get to awesome. I kid you not, I got my mask gone.

Ten people, first of all, ten people say love the olympic podcast every like fifteen feet walking in Austin enemy amy. But somebody looks at me with my mass and says, are you OK? And I said, why? I kids, you not and he said, I, you've vaccinated and I said, yeah he said, why you're in a mask and I realized it's time for independent critical thinking sex. I gotto give me to you another great, great tweet for me to copy and adapt still your deal.

I love this tweet .

that you had where you said early in the pandemic. Explain the, or maybe read the tweet.

This is to me about masks.

About one group of people .

wouldn't wear mask. yeah. Well, at the begin, that's right. I mean, the this function of our politics is that half the country we wear a mask at the beginning the pandemic and now the other hand the country won't take him off at its end.

This is the problem is that the mask has become um it's the equivalent of the red maga hat for team blue. This has become some sort of uh, virtue signalling even when it's not necessary, but it's actually destructive because it's performative vely sending the signal to people that the vaccines don't work. And we have a third of the country today is still vaccine hesitant and this is not helping.

What we need to be sending the message to them is, look, get vases. So life is back to Normal, so you don't have to wear a mask. And you know, we still have the cdc putting out this ridiculous servais and timid guidance saying that, well, if you get vicinity, you can take off your mask outdoors as well.

You're not with too many people. Well, like, no, I mean, look, once you get vicinity, you should need to wear a mass outdoors or indoors. And you know, we had the state, this sort of many say the union, this past week with biden and IT.

Was this really like john image? No, IT was like an empty room because because of social decision, and they're all wearing mass, even though, you know, every single one of them is vaccinated. And so I think biden really missed in an opportunity that speed.

Yes, he said that everyone should get vicinity, but so not tell. I mean, you know, he walks up to the microphone in a mass thing that we shall get vaccine. And what is the mass for? Want you tell people that if you get vaccinated, you don't need a mask anymore? And so you know that we have this sort of contrast is actually .

it's really incredible because your point he was trying to make some very important points in that speech did IT and when the camera would actually plan from behind him. So instead of looking at him and koala and Nancy poli IT would look, there was nine people.

and you thought a another sold out crowd for? No, no, no. Because because.

no, no, no. Because typically, when you give this sort of state of the union, no, these kind of like a hundred day addresses, IT is packed because you have everybody in congress, you have everybody in the senate, have you have typically like a bunch of other officials, have the in a state of the union address. And there was nobody, and I felt really striking to watch that if trump's .

mistake was not wearing a mask in April of twenty twenty, I think bines mistake is not taking IT off in April of twenty twenty. Why can we get a political leader who is willing to put on mass at the right .

time and take .

him off the right time?

Do just we we need a political leader who's reasonably scientific. And I will actually say, here's the intersection of science and common sense that everybody can map to and and copy me because IT is, to your point of IT, you know, the the leader of the free world is given that title for a reason. It's not it's not to completely ignore what I say. I've been put in this position because I am you on some dimension expected to be the most thoughtful person in the room and set the example for everybody.

Let's let's just talk like the important consequence of this and and I agree with sex. The important consequence of this, however, is the economic effect has so for example, in sand from cisco, restaurants are only allowed to be at a quarter capacity.

So there are restaurant owners that want to get back to business, that want to generate income again, that want to get off of the ppp loan program and all of the the government support and they should be able to because most people in san franco at this point, the vast majority, in fact are vaccinated and the restaurants for no scientific reason are shut down or limited to a quarter capacity and case across a lot of a in the country right now where the conservatism with respect to coming out of the um you know the major part of this kind of pandemic is what's now keeping the economy or not just keeping the economy is we're feeling the economy with stimulus but is keeping business owners and keeping people that want to participate actively uh in in building and running their businesses from getting back to work because we're so conservative about this. And you know what sex is totally right. Yeah like take the math off. Let people go on the restaurants and let people go dinner for ces. Let these places get back to by the way.

we have we have an ab test is actually nobody he's talking about, which is that the more conservative version of america's posture, right? America, sort of like half we don't care and half we care too much. But in europe, you can see a more, you know, homogeneous approach to the problem. And we printed a negative zero point six percent GDP growth in europe.

So to your point, with all the vaccines that are out there with all of the logic and all of the science not being able to just take the mask off and get back to life as Normal, was negative zero point six percent G D P growth in a quarter where they also printed hundreds of billions of dollars. And now you come into the united states last year. I don't know if you guys remember this, but every forecast I saw had from the smartest folks saying q one, G, D P would be on a run rate to be around ten percent.

IT would be one of the best in history. IT was only one point six percent. So we're on at six point four percent G D P growth runway.

guys. That's not ten percent. Now it's still a lot. But the point is we got to get back to life is not more. We have to show that these vaccines work. We have to tell people that you can have a Normal life. You should be going out, spending money, going back to the office, live Normally.

yeah. And and we should discover the data. I mean, we I mean immigrate to put up the latest cdc data on the screen. Yeah, if you use the cdc as a source for the data as opposed to listening to their interpretations of IT of their policy international is actually pretty lumination.

So out of eight, seven million people who have been vaccinated, they're only been four hundred and eight serious cases, which will be counted as hospitality tion or death related to cove IT. So those are odds of one in two thousand and thirteen thousand. The odds are being hit by lightning or one in one hundred and eighty thousand. So your odds of being struck by lightning or greater than your risk of getting seriously .

set by the flush? I need this imposing terms. I think that sounds like having a royal flush twice.

Yes, exactly.

It's crazy. How many royal flushes have we eat? IT?

I'll i'll put this article up and you guys can share .

IT in the technology yeah and I think .

IT IT does a good job of speaking to sexist statistics now. Uh yes. So I think ah sax, I think this represents the cdc data in the first paragraph uh in this article. But IT goes on to kind of speak about this statistical likelihood of these events.

So you know basically you know IT opens up by saying, you know as of April, twenty and eighty seven million people in the united states have been vaccinated and only seven thousand one hundred and fifty seven or point O O eight percent when on to become infected with sards coffee too um three hundred and thirty of whom were hospitalize and seventy seven of whom died from the disease and I would guess that of those people there is likely some immune is function, which is A A A likely reason why IT IT doesn't mean that every individual has at risk. That means that there are certain people out there that are going to have immune function and onto react well to to to won't develop the appropriate kind of protection from the vaccine. And you know that that small small small small, small percent of people are the are where we're kind of seeing you know um actual risk like that's .

why I get the four hundred and eight number is is the number of hospitalization ation plus death minus the ones that they say in the foot. Note we're not related to cove IT, right? So there are some other like cause so four hundred hundred and eight out of eighty seven million.

And by the way, I think it's worth just highlighting you just think about the rational for why there is conservative m here still right? So um if there are still pockets where people have not been vaccinated in the country and there are still areas where people are hesitant to get vicinity and there is a large unvaccinated population, the official guidance, the official kind of reasoning, I believe, is that we need to be conservative to get all of those people to behave in a conservative enough way to keep uh you know a search from occurring recently um uh around the country and the lot.

The downside is very negligible, uh, where people still have to wear maps. What I don't think that that calculus account for is that the loss is actually not negligible. The loss of telling people broadly to keep wearing masks is a hesitancy to go back to work, a hesitancy in a conservancy to engage in Normal economic activity. And so you know, I think that we're kind of missing that point in the kind of official ating of this of this exit strategy here. Um and it's it's certainly i'm a line of sex as I certainly think it's it's spinning us more than it's helping .

us to give you an idea. Just experience wise. When I was an Austin, every restaurant is that one hundred ten capacity. The locals, they were like, I can't get a reservation for a week or two. The town is packed.

Everybody in the country is going to Austin in miami because they've just learned that Austin in miami, I have officially declared, if you will have the vaccine, you can go have your life. But there are still a little bit of theater on the margins when you go into a restaurant, I went in to get a meal and I didn't have my mask gone. I kid you not hundred, ten capacity, hundred people sitting at the bar, two hundred people at tables.

SHE hands me a mask and I said, i'll have one I put her on. I said, can I answer a question and SHE the host is says, um why should you wear a mask when there's three hundred people in here with auto mask when the doors are closed? That's exact question SHE goes IT makes no sense.

The governor wants no mask. The mayor wants mask and so they're having their own little version of the national conversation in Austin which is locally scared uh at least the politicians are and then reasonable otherwise um so you literally put your little mask on. You walk ten feet to your table and then take them off for the the time in miami is a story.

I go to miami, I walk into, you know I was I I haven't been on fourteen months, so I decided I would check out a club. And I went to a nightlife club. And people were dancing and having a great time. People also popping bottles. And I was like, oh my god.

it's over. Like an a nightlife club.

IT was a nightclub. And no, IT was not a yes anyway he was a legitimate club no here in south peach um and so I took a little ins and I share I fed the install and immediately I got three comments from friends who are like, what are you doing in the club and I look back to all three. I'm vaccinated and they're like, okay, like is what I but I think this was the point .

I made a few months ago, which I do think that the the the subconscious training, the fear factor that's been read of you built into us over the last year a half um take a while to kind of um train our way out of you know people aren't going to be that rational and that conscious about oh, i've been vaccinated people are basically the default is fear the what is the bus but oh my god, people are still getting covered even though they are vaccinated.

There's various but and everyone looks for a conscious, you know, a kind of conscious reason why they're rationalizing their subconscious fear. And everyone got this fear to go do things and this fear to go back in the world because we've literally been trained and beaten in into a corner for the last year. Now the conscious reality is you don't need to be fearful, but i'm fearful.

Therefore, i'm looking for reasons to maintain my fear. And I think this this is like what I did. I said, I said IT, like four times before.

But this is what happened after nine, eleven. And IT lasted three years. And you know, we still have ridiculous T S.

A processes. We need our leaders to take their masks off, get, tell everybody they're vaccinated, take their masks off, go back to Normal life so that everybody else will feel that it's okay too because even if you are even if you're if you're not fearful, but the other thing that you are is just guilty. And you know what? You got to get rid of that as well. And the only way you'll do IT is if highly visible people are .

now actually going back to life is Normal, going into a store when everyone else is working a bus.

crazy. This crazy M S N B C A moment, one of the host of one of the shows said, i've been fully of vaccinated, but I went running in central park, so I double masked and I like the future singling 我。 稍微 再 wait is like you're outdoors .

is the thing。

I don't want to see the person's name.

because then if you mention who IT is, then you might be attacking a person of color or a woman host.

So I just said, because I are avoiding IT.

which makes you think that you are.

So who how do I supposed .

to say IT without?

Does anybody that nobody want me?

What c was the truth? A trump arrangement syndrome therapy was M, S, M, P, C, the radius go. I want to have a question for the three. Knowing what we've seen here between the logic of both sides and the media and the insanity, what do you take away from the year of the pandemic as IT comes to a close in how you personally look at the world sex? You want to start like.

yeah, i'll tell you, I feel like the american people are constantly being propagandized. And there is almost like an information war being perpetrated on the american people where we cannot get the data, the facts and the proof. I think if it's true now in terms of people not taking off their mass, even though we have the cdc data that basically shows the lightning strike probability of getting code.

But we saw at the very beginning of the pandemic, remember, I have all these people on twitter telling me, every time I tweet about this, why do you just listen to the experts, right? They want me to shut off my brain. I just do whatever the cdc says.

Not like, what do you realize the cdc was against mass at the beginning of the pandemic c back in march of two thousand last year when I was saying we need to wear mass. Because looking at the success of the asian countries and of the data coming out of that, the cdc was very, very slow in adopting mass. They were against IT. They are telling us we didn't need to do IT.

And that was the historical cdc like great. They've been around for a long time. And then also trump was anti mask. And so you have a try.

soto dot mass to yeah and absolutely and so yes, I mean, i've said that there's like a one diagram of american politics where that you know one circle is favor mass wearing one year ago and then wants to get rid of mass media today. The one diagram overlap between those two groups is very small. I'm in that overlap. I feel like I mean like a very lonely part of the the political graph.

But yeah, cheap. How has your thinking, you know, now that we've had to process this event in our lifetime, that is probably the most consequential uh, you know.

moment yeah I have I I I thought about this a lot. Jason, you ask a really important question and I think everybody should probably try to take five minutes and actually write this down um because I think i'll tell you what I learned I learned I learned three things um the first thing I learned is intellectual and it's exactly the same thing that David sux said IT is completely shocking to me how much this information there is and also how we are so prone to turning off our brains and not thinking for ourselves.

So it's really shocking, and I think twenty, twenty was the year that, that was laid bare, that the institutions that feed you information can't really be trusted, that you can't really trust the interpretation of actual simple data that nobody wants to think in first principle. So that's the first one we have stopped thinking for ourselves and that's a recipe for disaster. And so that's an intellectual thing that I realized and I don't want to do IT. And so i'll think for myself and i'll take the consequences.

The second was economic, which is, well, we have really over rotated um to this crazy form of global ism that is gonna get you done over the next thirty years and that can have a lot of implications and IT can be done in a way that can rejuvenate the united states, which I think can fix a lot of the stuff that was created and we should talk about that later uh, today and then the third is physiological, which is, if you didn't know before, i'm going to tell you now and it's the three letter word that we make into a four letter word in america, which is the letters F, A, T. We have a fat epidemic in the united states. Almost eighty percent of every single person that was hospitalized because of covered was clinical obese.

And your kids had, and you want to say that if you say that somebody fat or if you say that somebody is obese, it's all of a sudden like, you know, you're going to a get virtual signal cancelled. And instead, what we're doing is we're leaving an entire generation of people completely abandoning them because we're not confronting the problem that by a combination of food and a lack of movement, we are setting them up to either die acute of something like coffee or chronically by heart disease and diabetes. And that IT was like, IT is now so obvious. And by the way, that's the other thing where these healthy fit people were running around double vacation and or double metsu in central park and they don't even know the basic data, like even if you thought you were going to go to the hospital, the eighty percent of all of those millions and millions of hospitalization were from people that were obese. They had physiologically completely taken their body to a place that IT wasn't able to fight.

right?

So those are my three take intellectual, economic and physiology .

on that agree with with everything to moths said, is this idea of laying beer, laying beer. The the sort of corruption of these like institutions that are supposed to be coming with good policies and educating us IT.

Turns out they you keep giving us this foolish guidance, but there's also another institution, I think that was laid bare, which of these education unions, right? We had school closures for a year, the learning loss and the isolation that kids are have experienced. We don't even know what the results this are going to be.

This could be a generational consequence. And what we see from the education unions, they didn't want to go back to school. They fought IT.

We had the whole oakly schoolboy resign because they just said what? They want us to go back to work to the baby's sitters for their kids so we could smoke pot. These are people who don't care about the kids. And after this year, I don't know how anyone can be against school choice or charger schools or giving parents more involvement in their kids educations.

Hundred percent freeburg coming out of the pandemic and looking at your own psychology and your own life, what um have you learned and what do you take forward in terms of lessons and how you're going to approach post pandemic life?

All kind of a flip IT a little bit um one of the first experiences I had with how broadly people could be influence in a way that doesn't have grounding or rooting in fact in reality is when I sold my company among santa and twenty thirteen and J K L. I think you came with me on one of .

these trips that I took yeah I visit and um .

you know there was an incredible bias by my team and by me personally priority even engaging in conversations with monsanto against that company because they were deemed to be evil. And as as I spent a lot of time personally kind of digging into the the fact is in the history of the business and kind of how we got here, IT was surprising to me like how much of the bias against.

Was not retired in fact and was in fact um you know a series of claims that then became truth and reality because of the perception and IT just became things got stuck that way. Gm s are bad, gmos are evil. That the science of how they work, what they do, why they're useful, was never contemplated, never became part of the dialogue IT was just assumed fact that this is an ideal company, that this stuff is bad.

And um you know this is a long, long topic. We can talk about this, i'm sure, for entire hon. A half, about the science, technology behind gmos and how we make food.

Now that stuff, and i'm be happy, defect another time. But like for me, I was just so surprised when I engaged with thoughtful friends of mine who are scientists even. And they had this bias.

And then when you engage them in a dialogue about like why where does I come from? What's the routing? IT just wasn't there. And I got and I mentioned this, you guys, when I was an executive at the the management, even in monsanto, we had A W H O ruling where a guy got himself elected to the iarc the um this is the cancer research group within W H O he was this liberal guy who was very anti technology who got himself elected to the iar board and um got a ruling may that uh round up is a possible car signature and that ruling LED to a ten billion dollars lawsuit that month to or now bayer settling um which wasn't root red in the scientist of the fact that the other scientists on the committee had kind of previously kind of a previewed and gone pro and said this isn't cancers and it's incredible the applications is had and so i've always for several years now I had this kind of belief that like people can be LED um to believe things that aren't necessarily rooted in objective truth a or in fact or having spiral evidence to behind them and this this goes back to the origins of religion and monarchies and like you will be these mitts and these tales we tell ourselves, uh where we all end up believing something and there is some influencing factor that that drives that. I think this has just been an incredible manifester tion of that.

Um the the the misinformation on both sides from the beginning to the end of the pandemic and IT just been extraordinary to watch. I don't think you change IT, I think social networks amplify IT. Um you know I think that the rate at which information or misinformation flows back and forth is making IT easier and quicker to kind of adopt this you know systemic inaccurate beliefs system that people might adopt. And so um you know it's it's it's a big question mark for me. I don't know you know how we as a people kind of move forward with like objective fact based decision making and and belief systems um and I don't know we ever will, but well, I just have humans are wired maybe you know .

I am given a lot of about I really like all of your answers because the man is very similar number one, I feel like I was always an independent critical thinker in my life and that I think I kind of started to pick sides because of trump that like I just found him so offensive and I realized I have to go back to being just an independent critical thinker. I filled out with no party. I assume all new stories or fake news.

I assume all data being manipulated. Assume everybody is gotta agenda. I believe everybody's further red signal now, and i'm making the decisions for myself and I in the one of the things stop tells exactly with you, said tramadol is this was a disease of a of, you know, old people and fat people, obese people, of which I have been won for far too long.

And this is my commitment, is just, I got to take my health one hundred percent service now that i'm fifty years old, i've got a trainer. I've got A A suse. I'm working out and doing what i'm doing, everything.

I changed my diet. I'm taking supplements, the stuff we talked about here. I went right to my doctor after that episode. We did him off. I'm getting that body again for four fucking and grand whatever cost, and i'm just doing at all.

You think my school is going to help you lose way?

No, but i've had, i've had to .

maybe the no.

no, that out, that up. No, I just realized I don't stretch, I don't stretch. And my shoulders are getting very .

tight on the computer. Every so people look at you.

which is you every week. You are ending .

my money on making myself the third, and this is hard, felt and sincere, is that friendship and our loved ones are really with, along with health, is so important. And I am cherishing every moment, every experience with every friend, knowing that the world can shut down and whatever and we have to take advantage of every moment. And that for me is they take .

the can just build on something. I'm really proud of what you're trying to do. Um Jason, for your health when I I remember I know you know how you all have these high great school pictures yeah right like you go to like picture day or whatever you and there was a crazy contrast that I had in my great school pictures. There was like two of them when I was in three luna, I was like, you know, five and six and then great you then I was seven or rate. And then all of a sudden this crazy a he .

what's up and tono 照样 去 我 唱。

My .

life international.

yes.

Yes, yes.

not even knows.

We is no worry like one of the most powerful guys. And in our industry.

what I was going to say like by like I think when I was like nine or ten, I had gotten really fat. Um really because because when we move to canada, IT was a very different food supply and then economically, we were in a different place. We ate what we could afford and I put on a lot of way and that weight Carried with me until uh, college and then after college.

And that's when I said I got to get in shaped exactly was the same reason, Jason because like my dad was getting dialect, he was constantly you know dealing with these south issues and I said I don't deal with the ship um but that's a rare thing that happens if you think about the number of people that are put in this predicament of like not even forget you you you're able to get a trainer, whatever, but there are a ton of people that can only eat what they can afford yeah right. And the reality is IT is just meaningfully cheaper to eat mcDonalds. IT is to go to whole foods and be able to buy organic food. And so it's just not even on the agenda for people. So this is what I mean by we have to be able to say that it's not that people are fat because they choose to be, that there are these systemic and baLances that make people sick, you know, I mean.

education and health, these are the education that we need to work on in amErica like sex. You said that I was at last week actually said the, I think this is a great bargain that could happen in amErica with all this polar ization if even a republican conservative like sax can say, everybody should get a great education and everybody should be healthy, right? Like, and sexes in a socialist. But this this is important and it's so easy to just get a happy meal then to to eat a salad, you know .

or whatever. I was in washington D C. This week and um I met with this organization which um uh anybody who is interested in this should check out called third way.

And what third way is is a centers organization, right? So they largely work with the dam you trying to pull them here um and I think the republic conversion is called the nickson, I guess center. But the idea is I I saw with these guys, I know I just teach me something, and they top me the most incredible thing. You guys know who pew is. Pew goes out.

And they were doing for decades of the most respected, I think, can service.

Pete does this incredible thing where they go to like a whole bunch of countries in the world, and they ask this basically very simple question. I'm going to ask you guys what you think the answers on a zero to ten scale, where ten is important? What do you think americans think to the following question? How important is hard work to get ahead in life? Meaning, right? So it's a proxy for how americans think about hard work.

How important is hard work to get ahead in life? freeburg. What percentage of americans do you think that say that hard work is important to get ahead in life? And i'll give you a couple of da points in assia.

eighty percent. yeah.

But the set up is indonesia twenty eight percent. India thirty eight percent. Germany fifty percent. Go ahead. What do you think the answers?

Well, IT should be a hundred percent. But what I think IT is in the U. S um i'm hoping it's about the sixty I agree with you sax one hundred percent .

is the right .

answer and I believe americans don't believe that I going to put americans at thirty five percent because we've seen so many people .

get lucky and get rich and our origins people think .

the systems rigged or the victim culture where people tell everybody don't bother trying because it's rigged and you just it's in the argument each mother.

i'll let you give us the answer to second. But I think the argument is that like entrepreneur ism fuels these moments of an extraordinary success but perception creates the opposite effect which is someone can get rich very quickly and therefore there's this luck factor or this unfairness factor that is um you know that is inherent in the system, right? And so what what IT does enable hard work to drive tremendous outcomes.

The perception is the holy crap. In three years, you know, Kelly general went on instagram and became a billionaire. Text, right? And and people get really kind of blow away by that. And I think it's discouraging.

And or one person's success who makes such that other people can't. That is zero. Some when, in fact, a company.

What's your what's your number for america? Eighty percent. The number is seventy three percent. And we are the third highest ranking country in the .

service is great.

So it's amazing. Now if you if you ask the americans who Better represents the interest of hardworking people among republicans and democrats, the overwhelming answer is now republicans, which is really interesting. Democrats, even in exit polling, basically voted uh for biden, uh, because they just really found trump to stacee and a lot of the people that um you know basically said, you know he's an ask and so they voted him out.

But IT was not because they believed that democrats could do the job of actually reinforcing the values of hard work. And this goes back to hand. People, people people want a fair shot. They want an even starting line. They don't want an even .

finishing line. Yes, wants eternal ism and uh everyone wants opportunity. Um you know but you take what you're given when it's available to you. No one says no.

You know I spent a lot of time with farmers in the midwest, in the united states, very die hard conservative general ate right and um and farmers uh benefit greatly from significant government, the federal government support programs, primarily a crop insurance program and some commodity Price support programs uh but but they are very entire government and there's this tremendous irony there， right? Because they don't want to hand out. They want to kind of be left alone.

They want to be a little to run their business. They want i'm generalizing, but i'm just speaking broadly to kind of the theme of things I hear when I when I meet with farmers um but when the crop insurance program shows up and direct support payment show up, you're like, okay, i'll take the check um you know and so it's it's hard to say no, but I think the motivation for everyone is univerSally the same, which is right. I want to have the opportunity to be successful independently.

Are we creating policies that reinforce this? And are we creating the condition that makes people feel less like a victim, less looking for handouts? And lets do this. I have a concern about the stimulus checks. I I, I do think that was a smart thing to do to get a sad of this. But do you guys wonder if this generation, which is not going back to work, we have a shortage of uber drivers, we have a shortage of bar tender waiters. If nobody was, a lot of people just choosing not to go to work because they have their steamy.

AmErica is a place where you come to because you want to grind, you want to find your own little engine room, and you want to be in there, and you want to put in the hours. And the people that IT attracts from around the world speak to that. You know, the way that you can explain, you know, why indonesia and india are so far to left on the same question is because it's an extremely homo genius population with zero immigration.

no immigration yeah .

I actually think the reason why amErica so far to the right is IT itself select not by you know some kind of gender, age or religion or color of skin. My motivation, it's motivation yeah and it's like if you're motivated to crush you come to the new I mean, ah we've all, we're all what are we like you know one generation .

away except this in your two generation.

My irish is six generation a to united states as I was motivated family.

I think that's why i'm the least .

successful of the group yeah they're the lazy complex in american .

where we're the hunger you're .

the Daniel .

day character in the Daniel .

day Louis character and games in york. Migrants, you of the post, you grow eggs and everyone .

interest you bring that up. Do you know where my irish, uh, power berries came from and when they immigrated to? And the five points we were in the five points, it's actually accurate. Course I was that make sense.

You're not ganim day wis. You're the the heavy, shorter guy.

That was the year I dropped ten of my my orange and fifteen and I gave IT the sex.

Yeah, you did. You look good, jack.

You look at miami. Miami suit .

you in a wead way. I got A J, L. As much credit for where he came from as chamar because I don't know those parts of broker in or maybe as tough as three lanka.

Kids with guns, kids with guns. Yeah, you know, child warriors, you can judge.

always go with the party.

By the way, on immigration, I don't know if you guys saw that. You know, George w. Bush, uh, is a paints now, and he paints immigrant.

Yes, so I bought his book. I bought signed copy that I should have brought up to the podcast today. But it's a great book I highly recommend. Uh, nobody.

He actually has some writings in there the talks about the power of immigration and how immigration is so core to the success of the united states, just to our point. So um this conversation made me think of the book that I just bought this week, a really cool book, by the way, George w. Bush, uh, amazingly great artist, really captures the personality of immigrants in his work.

I think the thing the thing is like um like everybody wants to come here to work card, everybody that here is willing to work card, right whether you your first generation or not. And then the question is, can government create policies that allow us to do that and actually just create safety net to catch us if we fall because that's what we also all want.

So there are parts of guidance bill that I think made a ton of sense, like you know, making community college free. That's a really disruptive idea because it'll put a ton of pressure on for profit colleges right to I get their act together or not. That's a good idea.

The child tax credit so that you can actually have subsidized you know um childcare for your kids, that's a good idea. But then where you kind of go a strays and when you start to figure out you know the levels of taxation, again, we talked about this last time. But you know I just think that that's where you can kind of demotivate people to not .

then put in the hours. I think this is a good cycle also into um immigration tion through our southern border and this incredibly polarizing issue and how the media polaris zing IT how the parties are polarizing IT just to ask a question to see if we even understand the data, how many people uh do you think are illegal immigrants and in the united states right now.

twenty million. Okay, facebook acts as the guess.

Yeah, yeah. I guess I eighty million. And i'll take a slide under the champ. But about the right that's about the right order negative.

The last time I heard was twelve million a thousand a few years ago.

And single, it's twelve. now. How many people are apprehended at the southern border a year since twenty ten? Every year, half a million. Anybody else want to .

take a good fifty thousand?

It's at three hundred fifty thousand. So we literally are tearing the country applied.

And I know that because I watched the movie the carrio, and i'm estimating based on the scene where they ran everyone up at the border and took him away. So my .

yeah and awesome.

like you you incredible film.

just my branch because you might have a panic .

attack my favorite modern director denis in the wave is unbelievable. But the that seen when .

they're raising the cars into the border crossing, go to checkpoint. What IT is so much is so in so so if you guys there .

are a that directed the arrival, which is one of my favorite films, yeah that's a fabulous beautiful .

um so literally the country is being torn apart. A country of three hundred thirty million, over three million would be one percent point one percent coming into the border. And we just said, immigration.

Is this all these amazing people coming here to who want to strive and who want great things? Why are we tearing the country up over this issue? This this is a .

tough topic.

Well, I think, I think, Jason, I think your point of view on immigration really depends on where you're sitting in the economy. So I think for all of us who are in silicon valley, we know that something like half of startups have uh, an immigrant cofounder totally. So we've seen you like paypal.

I think you know they were like three or four immigrants on the founding team know Peter was born in germany, elan was born in africa, max was born in russia, um know I was born in africa. And you go down the list. Same thing with google.

You know sergey brin came from russian. This on and on go. So if you are a sitting in silicon valley is a tech worker, you see that these immigrants bring tremendous dynamism to the economy.

However, if you're in a low wage job, maybe low skill service, uh, then the, you know a lot of this immigration is competition and IT creates wage pressure for you. So this is why historically the unions have not been in favor of you of of immigration. Uh, you have you know a lot of service workers in the minority communities.

There's a lot of animosity towards migrants because of that. Fundamentally, IT creates job competition to wage competition, and I do think well so so look, it's easy for us to sit here in silicon valley where we sit in the economy and say, oh, well, this is have a limited immigration IT doesn't matter or yeah IT doesn't matter to us. But if you're in the low school part of the economy, IT doesn't matter a lot to let in a flood of immigrants who are in that lusk category.

And by the way, we're worried about these jobs getting automated away as well. So you know, I think you have to have a sensible policy. I mean, yes, to immigration, but I think you have to think about how much sort of low school immigration can we assimilate and absorb.

But IT aren't a lot of those people who are coming in all so then taking lower wages because they're off the books and illegal, whether if we had a more reasonable polity of lettings, whatever percentage in, like we could just pick a number. And if that actually worked and .

they .

were getting paid on the books, then they would remove some of that downside pressure. So you're not paying somebody under the books to be a delivery person or a dishwasher, whatever the entry level job is.

They have to get paid that moment, Jason. I think this speaks to the broader kind of set of political topics, which relates to the enable ment of competition and and IT speaks to some of the trade policy points that I think the last um administration made uh which is to limit trade and to limit access to global markets uh to to provide services and products to the united states and to tax them because the lower costs labor ultimately outcompete with higher costs labor in the united states.

And so you know you get lower cost goods, but the baLance is is IT worth having lower cost goods and services where you could actually see too much of a decline in the employability in the wages of people that are currently producing those those guns and services in the united states. And that's the tRicky baLance, right? There's no blue or red right way to do this.

We want to enable competition. We want to enable progress. We want to enable lower cost of production, lower cost goods and services.

But we also don't want to have the economic impact and the social impact of people being unemployed and unemployed um and baLance those two. One of the tRicky pieces of that balancing puzzle is immigration. Another one is trade. Another one is regulation and set at at a right. So a lot of these things kind of drive that.

that tRicky baLance. I really bounce around on this. I evolved the four of us. I was the only one that immigrated myself. So I didn't, you know, it's not that my .

parents did IT. It's not.

I did IT myself. I drove to the border. I got A T N VISA step.

No, I cross the border into buffalo. I stood in line. I got my own social security number. Um and I started a life in amErica in in the year two thousand and twenty two, I guess, for twenty three.

A B ready.

I had a job. I had a job after I had my offer letter, I did the whole thing. Then I transfer onto an h one b VISA.

I had to go through all of that, and I had to, you know, wait in line. I got delayed. I had to refile. So as a person, I went through the immigration system and finally got their Green card in two thousand seven, eight, and then my my citizenship in twenty eleven or twenty twelve. I bounce around on how I feel because I remember the insecurity I felt and not wanting to lose my VISA and have to leave and go back to canada.

Um and so if somebody was in that situation, I could see why they would get very agitated if they saw a lot of immigration being lumped into one broad brush, right? And because if you if you look at IT, actually there's a there's a really interesting content because it's not like immigration is the thing where all immigrants or promise gration, right? It's actually not that at all. IT tends to be sort of cultural elites or pro immigration because it's it's a synthetic tic way of showing openness and open mindless um but then you know inside not right I mean it's true .

it's because affected but not if anything that .

makes IT easier for them to maybe fine people to hire well at someone .

that lived through IT. What I would says if you know, if I was still waiting for my Green card and waiting in line and having the idea that there was some amnesty program, would have maybe feel very insecure. I'm not sure how I would have reacted to IT, but in that moment I would have felt insecure.

So the broad solution, immigration, is you have to separate the two problems and say, this part of the problem can be solved almost like a professional sports team, which is to say, we have the ability to draft every year the smartest and most interesting, capable people that want to come here and work hard. That will probably, we know, be a rising tide. Then there are these two other buckets.

Bucket in the middle is just compassionate openness, you know, family members and other people, refugees, you know, because I was immigrated into canada, not in the first bucket, because we didn't have bush to contribute economically, but in the second bucket, which is for social justice and refugees. And then there is a third bucket, which is there are people that are not going to be in a position to wait in line. They are onna, come to the border and we have to have a mechanism of saying OK, you shouldn't done IT, but you did.

And now here's a pathway where you can earn the right to prove that you should be here. And I think that there, there, there is a but we can't have that nuance because nobody wants to hear that. You want to lump IT into one. This is where, for example, like last year when trump, you know, decapitated the h one b program, I thought, this is just so dumb.

Yeah, no new ones.

It's it's basically telling, you know like, uh, it's forcing a star athlete you know to go and play a different sport. Why would you do that? You and it's so artificial IT doesn't make any sense.

but it's such a reasonable there's such a reasonable discussion to had to be had here because other countries have solved this exact thing with the point point system. Australia, canada, new zealand and and others have all worked on a system like this, which is you get points for each of the qualities that you bring and then you put some numbers on IT.

Yeah, yeah. But check out those countries are much, much charter to get into the united states. Good luck at into new zealand. You Better buy a .

property or something like that IT might be that the point of system is letting in the people that make the society stronger.

No, canada has a really progressive view on this. I mean, they have a point, the system, but they do a lot. They're really compassion about you'll taken a lot more refugees than than most of the countries.

And I think that that they've never lost that spirit. And I think that the point is I think I realization it's possible. It's logical. The problem is it's too logical. And let s IT.

it's like the map think .

I think freeman made in connection to the issue of free trade. So you look like a major economics in college. I was like a believer free trade, like sort of completely ardent free trade because why is crazy economic efficiency? And so gal, it's logical.

And if people lose their jobs, their factory clothes, because yeah where not is good, then yes, you let the just fall where they may. I think what we've learned over the last twenty or thirty years is that we have to consider the distribution consequences of a policy like free trade because it's about, well, who benefits and who loses. And yes, american consumers have benefit from the flow of cheap goods from china, other places.

But we've seen our manufacturing american lives. Yeah so throughout the the midwest, the rust bet, you've got these empty factories that just line up like like tube stones up, you know, places like detroit and and you've ve ve got these towns that used to be factory towns are now just kind of empty and the people are like cooked on and is a social disaster. And so I think, you know, what i've kind of learn about this is you have to take into account the consequences of these policies that I can just.

you have evolved your position.

I have. I can't just be about a Darwinian economic efficiency anymore. You have to think about who, who wins and who loses.

And by way, onic everybody.

everybody got you back. A lot of the current globalization .

policy that the united states embraced over last two three decades um I think sax correct me find wrong but a lot of this um originated during the clinton era uh which was uh you know a democratic president and then ironically, the free trade republicans are the ones who have flipped over the last couple of years to realize the economic consequence on the production side in the united states so severe that we need to now limit free trade.

And if you remember paul ryan, you know who is the house speaker a few years ago, had this six point plan for the republicans going into the primaries. And one of the key points was to you enable the transmission c partnership. They were trying to continue to put free trade.

And I think that the policy shift is ironic because it's always been kind of a red issue that have became a blue is you that have became red issue? Um and I think, you know, like everything, we are evolving our pots of view as we experience and learn more things and get more data. Um and perhaps for the rate of progress isn't the thing to optimize for, but the rate of progress baLanced against the equality of progress seems to be where the united states is that right .

now it's respond to what freeburg said about about how this happened. So he is old saying in washington that the best sorry, that the worst ideas are bipartisan and the idea of bringing um china into the world trade organization and giving them sort of m fn trading status that happened under clinton but I was absolutely bipartisan decision and part of the reason why our politics are so royal was posed .

IT was proposed clinton IT was passed in bush.

right? Okay, but they both supported IT. IT was a by partition sort of disaster.

And I think one of the reasons why our politics are so royal today, you ve, you ve got this populism on the right, and you've got a population of the left and where they both degree is in restraining is having a more protections st. triple. So, so I think.

I think a little bit of history here is important. I think you've got most of IT right. But if you go even one step back under clinton, there was nothing that they actually did.

But there was something that done, shopping did, which was that, you know, for a large time, I think I told the mid nineteen ninety four, the remaining was firmly pg to the U. S. dollar.

And you know, he was like, you know, five point eight remain be to the us. dollar. And all of a sudden they basically said, well, look, we have this happiness economy, uh, we have to do something about IT, and we have this enormous bulge of Young people.

And so they did this brilliant thing, and china said, you know, we're going to basically devalue our currency, and they're gonna basically make IT, essentially float, and instantly you rerated the currency by forty percent and over time, IT rerated by almost sixty percent. And what I did was all of a sudden IT unleashed, as you said, all of these subsidies into the the united states. why? Because now chinese goods became thirty percent cheaper, right? And then the thai goods became thirty percent cheaper.

Indonesian goods became eighty percent cheaper, right? Vietnam's goods became fifty percent cheaper. That's that's that entire contagion in the eastern assia that we went through in the late ninety.

So it's like china deep values, their currency. All of a sudden you have all these Young people in china who can make things for thirty percent cheaper. You're able to flood the american market with goods.

We were like, wow, this is incredible. My genes that cost ten dollars now cost seven dollars. I'm just using IT as a represented example. I'm just going to buy more genes.

And so you're consuming, consuming, consuming all of the sudden push comes along and says, well, you know this to be working out well, I want to go to war with iraq. I need to basically get china to vote yes. And the security council, okay, what's you going to take?

China's like, admit me to the WTO, because even during all of this, they were still not part of the W. T. O.

And to David point, and that's when the nuclear bomb went off in two thousand and four, you know, the minute that they were involved and they could actually have bilateral trade relationships and Normalized trade relationships, then all of a sudden the next wave happens. Because instead of just buying cheap chinese genes, every american company was like waiting IT. I can drive up earnings by just exporting this factory to china.

Read large. And the chinese had all this capital that they had built up, all these U. S. Dollars to then supported and subsidized. But it's a prisoners .

delima right off because if you don't do IT as an american company and you don't move your after.

there are everybody else, your shareholders, your shareholders look to capital stock Price. You know, as A C, E, O, you get fired. And so so then that's that's when, David, that what you said happened.

That's when you follow out from two thousand fourteen to two thousand and sixteen, you follow out the middle class, you follow out the inside the rust belt. And then basically you d industry realized the west. You saw the rise of populum.

You saw the rise of opioid as essentially a coping mechanism for people's inability to even work hard, right? To talk to the first thing to have purpose. math.

Americans are wired to work hard, and so they need to self medicate if you can't let them work. card. Yeah, they turn defending op OS to do IT. And then all of a sudden, dollar trumpets elected in twenty sixteen.

So what if we, the man without hope is the man without fear. You know, you give people no job and no purpose in the morning.

What happens? And the democrat police turned to socialism. I think that's like .

part of IT as well. So this is really interesting because we're talking about second the I think everybody who is doing this was considering the second order problems. And what we're experiencing now is the third order problem, which is things that people couldn't predict, like we now have a communist country that is not changing its human rights record and is not changing its behavior and might even be getting worse. And we've enable china the date.

But this in china, china will actually self reregulate. I actually think now the china issue is a little overblown the way we take IT, meaning I think china's central planners are Frankly just much, much smarter than us. They just start .

a planning tools community system that's just .

reactionary to the or any .

legal system.

They have no legal system that is more fect winters that are our politicians.

But here's a, here's a thing that smart policy can't out run though IT cannot out run demographics. And the most important takeaway that I learned over the last few weeks when I was studying this problem, because i've been thinking a lot just currently, like, okay, inflation.

What's the ten year view? What's just gonna en? Like, what's my macro view of the world? And I saw the most interesting that, which is the median age in china and the median age in south asia is greater now than the median age in america.

So it's in the mid forties versus the mid thirties. And that's an enormous y important thing, because now you have an aging population in china. You've had this one child policy that really has worked against them for a very long time.

So they have, they have an other representation of these Young people. And so you're flexing now to managing a demographic shift where folks are older. They're not gonna work in a factory.

They're not making goods the same way they use to economic growth is tapering. And so that whole china situation, in fact, demographically, is gona solve itself. But the implications for amErica are not good meaning.

I think inflation goes up, commodity Prices go up, Prices of everything go up. But IT allows us to to actually reestablish and rejuvenate the uh, the industrialized rust belt of america. We just have to spend the money.

And this is where I think, like when you look at biden's plan, this is where I wondered, why didn't anybody do this simple macro, economic, no traces route to actually come up with this? Because it's pretty obvious what to do. And then you wonder, I was a trip. I mean, have hf literally a trillion dollars allocated to reestablishing entire supply chains across critical industries that we want to own.

which I think freeboard you brought up what fifteen episodes ago, that this is an incredible for years, I think manufacturing .

r and reinvent manufacturing. I still think by a manufacturing represents this um this complete uh great domain where the united states could build and lead.

I'll just give you some statistics, global leaders, about twenty five million leaders of fermentation capacity or bio manufacturing capacity of that about twenty million is used to make beer and wine and pharmacy al drugs today in in the close system, five millions available for rent, and of that for million is already rented out. So there was only a million leaders of capacity really available for rent. There is one hundred synthetic biology companies are looking to produce fermentation base products from materials for clothing, food to animal protein to new drugs.

And they can't get the capacity to make this stuff. And every one of them is scrambling around silicon valley, looking to raise hundreds of million of dollars of venture funding to go build for the manufacturing capacity. For by manufacturing, this is where the united states can lead, because we can make every material, every drug and every consumable that the entire world would use using bio manufacturing.

And just to be clear, by manufacture.

go, oh, you edit the DNA of an organism, and IT can be programmed to make a molecule for you. And so we can use the large for mentor tanks to make this stuff. I did the math recently, and you would need about ten to fifty billion leaders of capacity to make all the animal protein for the entire world.

And using forty five thousand leader tanks, which are three meters y each IT would take about thirty forty square miles of fermentation text to make all the protein for the whole world. We could build that in the united states for about three of, for about three to four hundred billion dollars. And we could build IT in a couple of years. I mean, that is like a moon shot. You could also make materials for clothing.

You could.

And and this is like today, the scientist IT is, I go back, is like the internet era. We now have this ability to program organisms to make stuff for us. This did not exist ten years ago, fifteen years ago.

Twenty years ago. Today is the moment IT exists. So if we don't capitalize on this huge budget to build infrastructure, to go after this massive opportunity to make everything that the world consumes, we're going to miss out and and free markets will compete us away. This is the one time that big check can be written and that big check can enable this new industry. And instead of making cars and making all the stuff that maybe we don't .

need to be making, you really think that all this trillions of infrastructure spending .

is going to what you just described that point. That's and I think that what I mean, we're missing this opportunity.

we're branding the same old social programs is infrastructure because the politicians know that's what the last categories are. Spending is still popular. IT means you going to go to .

the right things.

IT does IT does those labels? Those labels poll well when you say jobs, like for example, one of the things I learned, which is insane, is that for whatever reason, people think fixing climate change is a net negative, because IT IT IT will restrict one's way of life and destroy jobs, whether, in fact, it's the exact opposite, right? IT should actually allow you to do more, live healthier, and there should be an an entire rena sance of industries and jobs. And so IT goes back to the disinformation.

just makes a rational conversation almost .

impossible, is officially running for governor. And I guess people are making light of IT. But sax, you actually wrote to consider post on IT. So unpacked up for us was .

defending kate lin genre I mean look I mean what klin genre came out said is that Gavin newsom's chase a button and George gas could lay er presiding i'm putting words in her mouth presiding over a crime wave and SHE was calling him out on that. And what you then immediate saw was all of gave s people come out and criticised her for being stupid because supposedly SHE didn't know that they were locally elected.

Well, I think that a couple of points are, first all, why hasn't gaven some come out and distance himself from chase a budi and George guest stone and what they're doing in those cities? He hasn't done that because he's been closing up to their side that the sort of progressive, extreme radical dearies rations wing of the party. And the reason we know that is because he he recently had A A job to fill the attack y general spot in california.

He could have chosen anybody for that job and he chose um in espace and rob onto for IT who is an ally of chase a boodie and gas gone and this progressive da alliance and so yeah it's true that newsome didn't point these days but he's appointing their allies to post their even more important, the eternity general of all of california and so I think he was a very legitimate issue for katine general to come out and call out. Gave a new Simon and I think she's on to something here, which is there's a lot of issues in california. There's a lot of things are wrong from a homelessness to unemployment and these crazy covered restrictions.

But the number one issue, I think, has to be crime. We are seeing explosion of crime in our city, in our streets. We all know there are a large parts of L. A. And services ago that we do not feel comfortable walking around in anymore.

Oh my god, you be crazy to walk down the street with the child.

The livable area where you can, where you feel safe living or opening a business or walking around has drastically shrunk in the last few years. And if you do not feel safe in your city, nothing else. Politically matters. That government's first responsibility is to protect it's people. And I think if kelland gender can keep speaking out on issues like this, I think maybe he has a shot yeah I .

think that she's got a credible shot. He has a reasonable economic policy behind IT and you know this uh the school of vulture thing on education. Those are the things that i'll Carry uh, california your voters because I do think and by the way, here's where I think we should take some credit.

The best thing about this podcast, other than the fact that we used ourselves to keep us saying it's it's made IT, it's made IT fashionable, fashionable to think independently again. And eventually what becomes fashionable becomes the river. And what that means is I think that there will be more and more people that will think for themselves. And if he has reasonable policies and a platform that's understandable, SHE can win R N. And that's an incredible testiment, I think, to people making their own decisions and being able to have .

a reasonable conversation with people with different opinions, I think, is the other take away from the pockets that people always give me their feedback when they I see me on the street or whatever talk to me about IT. And as as a point uh, going to Austin, they are now dealing with ten city problems like L A. Uh, and the same problems that they're dealing with, we're dealing with in service cco.

So I went for a walk around the lake couple times was great. And you know there were a lot of tense and they're literally taking the most beautiful lake in the entire beautiful part of the city. And it's becoming camp central if they're basically ruining IT for the the actual citizens who are not homeless.

Austin lifted the tent ban they had in texas. Now texas is voting now. The entire conversation when I was an awesome, all conversations did not go to nfs cripp, to the board or anything.

IT went to ten city. And people in Austin who are very liberal were saying, i'm voting to ban tensity, voting against, you know, this insanity because it's, we don't want to become service sysco. We don't want to become away. So the and these are liberal people and the the concept that a city would allow people to camp in the center of the city and unit for everybody else is insane.

Portland's version of hammer dam is still up and running.

It's been a year. I mean, if people want a camp, we have camp on to that. Send the campers to the campgrounds.

Can I tell you the secret origin story of miami and by miami is now a tech up. It's because of this issue. It's because a tech out for nor got punched in the face by a homeless person in and for this go. I don't know if he'd want me to tell the story. I'll find out efforts and you can beef out his neighed, basically, who is a prolific tech founder.

He's going.

I don't know if you want me to tell the story, but he was out just.

we do do two beats, fine.

We do two beef s anyway, he was out walking around, services go, and a crazy homeless person just walk up and punch in the face for no reason. And this is something this VS persons done many times. The copies were there to come, shrugged, didn't want to prosecute, didn't want to write up a ticket.

He's like, no, I really want to press charges to the cops. Like, okay, fine. So then he presses charges, nothing happens.

The da office bc keeps on giving him to run around until he basis has fine. Forget IT, he drops charges. He just moves. He just votes with his feet. So he moved to miami.

He was the first one from that sort of like, that sort of the core, like silicon valley plugged in ecosystem to move out to miami. He says he, he did the sea ground. Then he talked to keep rb boy. And he is the one who convince Keith robot to move to miami. So Keith robot, then there he did a series .

a so was the .

seed vester of miami. And he got rab y to the series a and then rab y, you know, he's very prominent, loud on social media. He's been advances, zing all thing.

And then he got dealing and founders fund, and they'll noise machine to move. You know, they are circus to miami. And now look at IT. Look at IT.

Yes, but up here now, IT took they've got a mayor of miami friends, Sarah, who actually said, we want take here right? And they they don't have a homeless problem. The city has A A lot of cops as well managed.

So look, he's got the right environment. And most of all, the city, miami is welcoming to the tech you go system where emphasis go. The politicians seem to can't wait to get rid of IT, but it's all comes back to this homeless issue. I think if if and gone punched in the face by the homes person, I think this all .

would played very .

different rap on a quick fang. I you must have seen every single major tech company had a massive blowout quarter. And when I say massive, I mean unbelievable.

And five the five tech companies now collectively this year um will make more than one point two trillion dollars trillion with a tea of revenue. If those five companies were a country, IT would be the fourth largest country in the world. Wow.

we're not talking market of your folks.

We're talking cash in the bank account. Just revenue are just review process, which I think is a good proxy for GDP. And so the point is, you know if these companies were countries collectively saying that would be um a top fifteen country.

And and if you and so I guess really what we've learned is what we've known, which is okay, the server, they have pricing power. You know unfortunately, facebook had to actually even disclose that you know inventory only grew by twelve percent but Prices grew by thirty five percent. Um you know google basically showed the same thing.

And if you go back to sort of like the pillars of antitrust law, which is at one thousand, and the odd supreme court case, IT defined what's called the consumer welfare test, right? So so you know the F, T C and D O J, they're relatively toothless in the face of companies cutting Prices. But they can really act when companies raise Prices.

And here's where their definition of a monopoly, which is brittle IT, doesn't account for two know twenty twenty one, two companies does come into play because now you can see that there that they're winding up their pricing power if they can raise Prices. Number one, the second thing that i'll say is the apple facebook thing is a very important cane, ian, the coal mine as well because it's not as if the five of them can actually work together. There is in fighting, right?

And so game this well with .

this new update to IOS. You know what those dialogues will essentially do, in my opinion, if I had to guesses, limit inventory, right? So facebook and google will have fewer ads that they can actually run in a targeted way.

And so the the only way that they can keep them growing revenue with fewer impressions is by raising Prices even more. And then the last thing i'll say is, uh, you know, this complicated dynamic between apple, facebook and google is that google still pays apple almost seventy, eighty billion dollars for search, where as facebook pays them nothing. So if you put all these things in a box, I think you're going na see the beginning of the end. This is where now you can see the end game come into focus, which wedding well, you don't need necessarily new laws and section to thirty other will have that you now see fang and moving into the line of sight of the traditional anti trust framework, because now they can use very traditional, know any competitive pricing lot to go after this.

I am I am strongly disagree with you off, okay? And i'm not disagree with you on this strongly since we on the podcast. The reason I strongly disagree is because this is not inventory that is being sold at a fixed ed Price where the Price is set by the company.

Facebook and google, in particular, run an auction model. They are a marketplace business. They have advertisers who show up and they bid on ads, which is the inventory that they are able to get based on the data that they're able to match to that particular ads flock.

If the advertisers can get more value by biting a higher Price because of the data that they're getting, that shows that this customer is more likely to click on the ad and ultimately buy something, they will bd more for the ads. What has been such an incredible juggle note of a business for both google and then facebook, which he was effectively a mimic of google system, was this auction model. And the innovation has been in getting more data as you are as you track consumers around the internet.

And secondly is in the smart ad targeting, which is where the algorithm figures at which ad to show the consumer based on whether that consumer is likely to click on the ad or not. And the more consumers click on the ads, the more advertisers are willing to pay for an impression because that, that is not to that, that is not going to convert to more revenue for them. That is why this is not a monopolistic approach to Price. This is an approach, I think, and this they have ve one in the past over the art but .

good at facebook. My team was the one that built IT. Um so I I oversaw those guys back in two thousand and eight and nine when we did the first version of IT.

Obvious has gotten much more sophisticated than you're right it's a vicary auction and literally my Mandate to the team was I don't want your innovations copy google and give me a version of what google looks like and rogan implemented. There's a problem. It's not exclusively that ads are not sold entirely based on that system.

Ads are sold direct via a team. So for example, when budweiser writes a hundred million dollar shaker proof gamble, they're not necessarily stepping in the auction the same way as a small and medium size business. And if you look at how facebook and google have oriented their policy, they've only highlighted those people because, David, to those people, you're absolutely right.

There's a very market clearing Price argument for them. But there are an entire class of advertisers that coming over the time, the brain advertisers, yeah they get structure deals that get structured A P. S. They get structured access. And facebook is and google is setting Price and microsoft is setting Price.

And so this is where that's the entry point because at the end of the day, is an impression to David freeburg whether IT seen by the local talk shop or portraying gamble, some of IT will be a Victorine. Some of IT will be structured inventory. It's a convoluted mess of the two. You can't tease IT out.

You're right at the at the end. It's about getting C, P, M. Higher, right? It's about cost per thousand impressions.

Have to talk about some early days of google and how how we made some of those decisions because I think it's instrumental to how this is designed to be ultimately a system of commerce efficiency that's really important, not just a system of selling ads. Uh, but let's talk to talk about that later. Yeah okay.

As we most impressive um observation from these a quarterly reports that just came out for me, amazon's ad business twenty four billion growing at seventy seven percent year over year. On top of there, amazon web services is Better.

that they will be bigger than A W S. And three years at this.

what's everyone else is a, what everyone .

else is me was the most .

impressive thing. For the .

most impressive. I A D is unbelievably impressive.

But we have, we have four enormous mono police on our hands. And if I was a betting man, and if decade these form of police will not exist, I like that that broken up yeah.

by the end, by the end of this decades .

or twenty thirty. yes. O, K, that i'm willing to buy two dollars to donuts that what they they.

they face break up.

There are Better a couple donuts. You Better a couple dollars OK and will give the donors to sex us.

Sex, sex.

Well, as your takei. Well, I mean, I would up level silly .

in ani trust. There's historically two schools. There's the board school. In the brand I school, bark was narrow ly focused just on consumer harm and would be closer to like the freezer position. But the brand I school is more about concentrations of power, right? And would be more concerned about you not let people get too powerful in this american democracy.

And I think the interesting thing is now that there's folks on the right who definitely buy into the brand eyes school because of the restrictions on free speech and access to the marketplace ideas that companies like amazon, actually all of them amazon, google, apple um facebook have all a imposed the the limit people's access to the marketplaces of ideas. So I think now it's really interesting. You're seeing a combination of both the right and the left get together saying these companies are too big, they're too powerful.

I think the republicans are saying, will let you keep the money. We are going take your wealth. The democrat are saying we're going to take your your power and your wealth.

They are public because are saying we want to level your power a little bit. But I think these forces are going to come together. And I grew with Timothy. I think I don't know exactly when, but I think these companies are going to get broken up and knocked down because they are too powerful.

It's a, it's a, it's a good counter argument. sex. I mean, the other that more important point of view of power versus uh no economic harm to consumers is an important one.

Clearly there there's no accounting for that quantitate timely um and politics drive IT. But I I think like it's just incredible. I mean, if you guys think about IT as a consumer, I mean, how incredible are the products that alphabet, mazing and apple have made? I mean, free and all free.

I, I, I even not even the iphone.

like ordering stuff on android every day. I'm amazed and I marvel at the world we live in, at the ship that we can do with the click of a button. I mean, IT is such an incredible world we live in because of his business. So as much as we can harm .

them for all the world, the here's the problem is that apple and google, in particular, have a monopoly on the applications that can exist on these these incredible phones. yes. And if you can get access to the APP store, you can exist that, Frankly, that even if you can even have a business in the modern world, if these guys cut you off. And so we ready saw congressional hearing very recently in which spotify and some other apps were testifying against google and apple because apple tax because.

yes.

because these platforms were discriminating against those applications in order to benefit themselves. And I think that in particular has we looked at and I think eventually stopped two things.

Two things. Apple just got sued by the E. U. today.

So they got slapped with anti trust for their APP store. So that's going to sort itself out as well. So you have all these as Jason's game thrones.

I wanted to read to you guys something just then. Just put IT in the chat. This is something I said to brad girls, or in twenty twenty when we were, he was interviewing me for something.

And I think it's it's even more true today than I was in two and nineteen. I said the following. I said my perspective on facebook is the reason why the market gives you a small multiple. Because, by the way, you hear this all the time, like, my god, h these companies are so cheap. Why are they so cheap?

I said the reason why the market gives us such a small multiple is because they don't believe the market the market doesn't believe that their earnings potential is durable because the market is sure that in the next ten or so years, governments will start to act because they care about their own self preservation. So if you get very reductionist, at the end of the day, that's what governments care about. And so they're going to register to protect their monopoly, which is the ability .

to have power. Alright, there IT is folks a shout out from chamar to chah into one and. Show up i'd like to give china to myself like .

James I would like, don't hurt you are patting yourself .

of the best argo. You got to stress that out what you're functionally stretching on sundays. I get my function stretch on love you best these best .

to when you guys coming back, please. Can we play poker? Another world of.

and I might have to go to .

new york next big .

news is coming. everybody. We are going to be putting up a voting mechanism. You're gna be able to vote with your dollar, with a tiny donation to see all in live, which ever city gets the most donations. I think it's going to be a miami.

We gonna ate the money to have. We decided.

I mean, I think that should be something related.

Poker and the winner, you do a single hand poles, and the winner gets to decide to charity, their choice. I like that.

I like that. That could be fun. I mean, I think something that we've we decide.

can we just decide to sell tickets in miami, in new york, can be done with the miami.

Miami, I know I think miami and new york where he just do a one two. I mean, it's a hot quick jump to mark.

You decide the date will .

the rest? We're to pick a are going to a go to the first type live and we're going to sell we're going to sell tickets for like five times all the proceeds go to charity.

It's got ta be more like fifty or twenty five because of the venue, because we have to the venues got to get their vig.

But anyway, love you best, love you freeburg love you. You know, most of all, everybody love you, love you sax.

love you. Thank .

you. See you next time on the all of.

let your.

Winter light, man.

We open sort to the fans and they .

got crazy with.

You should all just get a room and just have one big, huge or because they always like like sexual attention. And we just need to review some your B.

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