E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
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boys is why the all in part .

is falling apart, is we got one best to use, thinks he's fucked in her any way. We ve got another one, do you think is his italian nobility? We got another one. Who all only wants to do is geek out about science and discuss something topical. I mean, you guys are a total mess.

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that i'm in and have been waiting two weeks to go off.

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Okay, everybody, welcome back to the all in podcast. We took two weeks off for vacation with us to the from casion uh saxes off his boat and ready to go uh after the tremendous boat episode freeburg who David work from .

an I R rest office. D sad, sad is joined the call center. R, which call center?

And this .

is David .

sex from the .

call. Fuck in this best .

you Better fuck and show up. This line up is a ter beast is showing up. mr.

Beast is gna play cards and he plays eight queen aid off to crack filled is going to be very .

entertaining this afternoon.

It's mr. Bee Allen shaper muth. This is fucking .

fireworks. What I .

am going to time .

at seven .

to seven? No.

it's going is, is your guest house taken?

No, you can stay in the guest house if you want.

Great here. No, we start, David.

We started. Yes, David, we started six. But I I, we're onna break for dinner as Normal at seven. So get here by .

the I dinner with my ds. I ve been month.

Right, just have to remember their names. It's p and and .

there's .

three of them. Okay.

here.

come after .

dinner on first topic of the day. No, no. York did that part just introduced the you started with thanks and you didn't say my life. You.

you become the director, said I, with this, again, the dictator himself, to mathai haiti, dalian castle, fresh of his italian and castle retreat. One button up.

Maybe we should call you the duke instead of the dictator. yeah. Because making the italian.

I, T. J, he ravaged my toilets several years. He literally had he coached the Butler he call up to the chef when he would bicycle. Bicycle, he would bicycle back to the, to the house, the gate would close, and they would score out with two little cokes, a huge class filled, that I was so confused when I, what's going gone?

mr.

Jae, in the first percent of your book, did you write? J, K, L.

well, a nonfiction book, typically sixty thousands, the target. So i'm going to write sixty and then tried to edit down to fifty. And I got the first ten done.

Sorry to, on the, on the plane, as well as at my house. Jason, read us the intro. I'm not going to say what they're about or the title of the book, the first couple chapters, it's fucking amazing.

But the idea, no, I think the idea is amazing. The title is fantastic and what he's written so far is exceptional. I was genuinely like it's great. It's really, really great. Well, a lot of IT was informed .

by the discussions we've having here. Uh, of course, back in the mix is freedoms. G the queen of kwa, uh, in front of some k mark artwork that he purchased for his new house. Uh, how are you doing, queen? Uh, how how do you feeling about your decision to not come to italy with us?

Ah, I don't talk about IT. Hey.

can we can we tell our best italy story? Oh my god.

I don't know what the best is. A lot of best in only stories. Well.

I want to tell two stories and one of them is the joke I didn't make at the speech, which I thought was the best and joke and I wanted just get your reaction.

I'm just going to okay. So so just to give a little background here.

our friends fifty eighth birthday.

two of our friends had fifty person is me and our other friend. And so we were in italy for a week as a group, playing cards and celebrating those two birthdays.

The joke I didn't make was the following joke, which is, alright guys.

I just a friend number one rejected yeah reacted.

Uh I just want to call out the elephant in the room. You know there's really someone very, very famous among us. Uh so you know he's known uh to be one of the richest men in the world.

He's known um you know to really uh love rockets. He he throws you know rockets all the time. Um the despotic leader of north korea here, kim john in everybody and I point to dc IT .

IT in context .

of obvious ah all right and yeah .

I was just a great trip. I have to say .

I my italy story is that so the second birthday is J L. The first birthday is a friend remain nameless, the second birthday rejected. The second birthday was jay house fifty. Then we find out that j else birthday is actually like.

six months ago, six month ago.

november twenty eight. Yeah, nobody, nobody cared. And Frankly, none of us went to italy for jake OS work.

Another guys, the other guys party. Yeah, jay house birthday is like coffee.

He keep trying to bring IT back in different variants. And no one was any part of.

So the last night, the last night of the trip, we had the jacket up birthday party. And what do they serve? pizza? I mean, like because it's on jack else dime. I mean, the rest of the week we had this like big you through .

my birthday party for my acx.

you didn't even throw in any bread sticks. I mean, he was like .

he is dash dominoes. We had trouffle pizza trials. IT was delicious, I think was the best meal. I think you're just a little jealous because .

the dinner you .

hosted maybe didn't hit the .

note you wanted to .

hit x food piz the whole circus in in the water. Uh, I got so mad at one of my kids because I was so dark and the kids were in the pool. He kept diving. Yes, and I kept in stop, I can see and so I was just like, he, not of the kids should have bit in .

the pool I agree that and the truth, the matter is, you know, my father was all was in the pool too and all I could do was keeping .

eye so worried about.

didn't enjoy the show for.

and they had the time with their lives.

Yes.

they loved IT. And the day before.

I want to give credit to sex, because sax and I went down to that restaurant and we make them open up, the wine closed, we raided IT. We found the best three bottles of wine, and we brought them back for everybody 啊。

And then, and then if you remember this, we taped an epsom of call in.

in which I .

was a little drunk. I, yeah.

So anyway, the whole world can listen to a drunk on all in. We're launching on september second.

So yes, nice congrats can be a big .

deal and um congratulations to the all in syndicate members who went their beaks and to mynn dict members. H people don't know this, but IT was the absolute record we've ever had for any syndicate. I believe at the end of the day, we had one hundred fifty slots and we had nine hundred fifty people apply acx. We had a million or so in allocation, and I think we had seven million and demand.

I'm really .

excited.

I'm really going to yes, i'm really sad about this product is the best of been involved in creating it's Better than ever. It's Better than paypal.

Take ww, i'm .

really .

sex.

Don't hurt you. Don't hurt your elbow. Pat yourself on the Better continue. That's a little you've got a little product, manage, draw.

go there. But you the feeding .

we ve got ten from users has been incredible. I mean, just the reactions .

what's good about IT here's what I think now um as a person has been in pockets sing for a decade um the critical um aspect of of this is when you pop up your club or room on calin IT creates a podcast out of IT with an R S S feed um and you can go listen to the previous show so if you are listening to this and you wanted to create your own version of all in, you could do IT on call and just get story of your nuckles head friends and talk about your adventures on boats and private jets and drinking fine line whatever you are and you can set your own pockets .

yeah it's not respect of wine not included, right? It's not the key inside. It's not about the rumors about the show. You know like everything we think of a social audio is really just a feature of creating a of creating a new podcast. And so anyway, people really like, I am very excited.

We have been created the Better this is .

the thing that blow me away is like well over a hundred, I think maybe a couple of hundred. If you go to the show directory, you and the cover art that people have created is really elaborate. People are really getting into IT.

I think anything you're phenomenal product builder. So I think this is really excited. And under under red.

the product, product I would say, no, it's interesting that this doesn't exist. Somebody should have made this already like there's zen castle and riverside for recording podcasting. There's lips in for hosting them.

What what's happened as as a protected minority, i'd like this this question. What happens s what's happening to class?

Um I think it's irrelevant. Don't I don't want to dunk on founders, but um I think that they are why can't .

they just do these features that sounds like t they will copy such .

features for short and they will copy at at some point.

Yeah but I think that was A A good question. I really think there's different visions here. So I mean, i've listened to their founder talk about his vision and it's very much about creating this live certain deputies type experience like kind of like a cocktail party.

And that's fine. We're not doing that. We're creating long til podcasting ings.

What we're doing, and my experience is informed by what we've all been doing on the show of last year and a half, which is podcasting, right? And the thing that i've seen, that I didn't know until we did the all in pod, is how much work goes into what jack out does behind the scenes. We got nick doing six hours of post production on the show. I want to automate all that work away so anybody can do what we do. And that's like a very different vision.

nic. Now I mean, not everybody is gonna want to put the type of post production into this. They don't have you know i've got six people on our pakistan and like it's not everybody has got that infrastructure. So over time you will build that. I believe IT um return out greater let's get to our first um topic here.

While we were away, the united states started the process of leaving afghanistan after a twenty year war uh in which I think it's prety safe to say that was an unwinnable war and um we uh have felt like the russians did. Sax had A A tweet, uh that was a not getting a little bit play on the twitter. What we're seeing before our eyes is the collapse of the american empire because the people in charge are completely corrupt and incompetent. But we can talk about that because insiders can never criticize other insiders. The Larry summers rule.

did I tweet up?

You did IT. You might have had a couple of drinks. And then, sorry.

he actually didn't he just text .

that in the group? okay. So that was a confidential text to our group that we're not supposed to .

do even say exit I don't beat IT, it's okay. I mean it's true. It's not exactly what I eat IT but it's similar .

to things i've been tweet and tragically um yesterday um I S K which is an afghan affiliate of the islamic state clam responsibility for uh two suicide bombings outside of the airport and that tragically killed uh over one hundred people uh ninety afghans citizens and thirteen american service members. Uh I guess you know we're not here to talk about um wars. It's not exactly in the Mandate but everybody wants our opinion on this. So let's get started. Its x you have strong .

opinions will started. Well, talk about this is one of those events where, you know I was glued to my TV for days. I think I was in france at the time, the taliban over an povera couple.

And yeah, the afghans worth ban going on for twenty years. No one's been talking about IT is this? This thing has been happening in the background, but all long we've been assured by the pentagon that we're winning. Hey, you don't worry about this. We got this, and then you wake up one day, and all the same time we've lost the war and the tall bonds of running the country.

And you're like, what is going on here? You knowingly is the the botch withdrawal in competent? The fact that we were relied to for two decades about what was really happening, the idea that we had created, we were, how many times we told that we had created this afghan, an army, was three earth strong.

We spent two trillion dollars in the country. Are you being? And we were told the whole time that we were building institutions there that that we are creating a democracy in the middle east, that we are even promoting gender equality and lecturing the taliban on toxic bus or something like that. And then we find out one day that proof the whole thing was this kind of a lie. IT was a giant debacle o and now we can even get our we can even get our civilians out of the country.

Not only that, but we've we've seen twelve people, top american services, men and women killed. Yes, they trying to thirteen, trying to protect the airport. Uh, almost one hundred.

And afghans, uh, now we do only have to not only content with the taliban, whose positions I don't think any of us know about, but we also have to deal with ice is k, which is like some of you to filly IT, a vices run by a guy who was actually severely killed by the taliban. But that didn't clearly stop anybody. The the level of honesty just say the the the lying that we've been doing on this topic is just utterly um it's really released, gary.

You know how could we have gone twenty years, two trillion dollars, twenty four hundred american lives in counting and found a way to just basically waste of this money and tell ourselves these lies for so long and IT turns out none of IT was true um and then the back half of IT is that we look like a little bit of a country that sort of in decline because we can't even figure out an orderly withdraw. It's not as if you know this thing came out of the blue, out of nowhere. This was a negotiated with drawl.

So we had months to plan for this, you know, and we had months to do the right, honorable, moral thing for all of these, for for all of these people that helped us in that country. Just to give you A, A, A small antidote, you know, the day that couple was overrun, you know, the democrats were actually tweet out about, uh, celebrating librarian day. That's what they were focused on.

Jason and I on the way back, you know, I we flew back with my, with my mom and my sister. We stopped in toronto to drop them off. And the planes beside us, Jason, you remember this here to do I think I think bread, paul, we're telling us, are my pilot testing us these plans, uh, have been going back and forth saving refugees in afghanistan.

And it's like about what honor to just be beside these these amazingly heroic men and women. And you know, I don't know, Jason, if you saw, but as we were reviewing, they came and bored and they were getting ready to leave again. Meanwhile, that amErica cannot get even to a point of view on the topic. And I think that's what's so shameful. It's like not only do we spend the money, not only did we lose all these lies, not only did we have an orderly withdrawal, we couldn't even at the end, guarantee the safety of americans or do the right thing for all these people who risk their lives to help us fight clearly a useless war freeburg you .

have not watching all this I know you don't like when we dive into politics too much. But what you you have any thought you want .

to end how much about politics as much as um I kind of use a little bit of a start up analogy, like amErica never really sound product market set with what we are trying to do in afghanistan. There's some fantastic um gale polling that's been done in afghanistan uh over the past uh fifty twenty years already.

And they've actually had people on the ground polling there and most recently, which has been consistent for over ten years, polling shown that eighty seven to ninety percent of afghans um said that the government is corrupt. This is the government you know put in power place by the united states. Ninety percent say businesses are corrupt.

And if you go back to a poll day ran in two thousand and ten, the question was, in general, which of these statements comes closest? To your point of view, sherie law must be the only source of legislation. Fifty six percent of the afghan population and twenty ten believe that to be true and another thirty eight percent said shri ow must be a source of legislation but not the only source that leaves just .

seven percent of people .

that think that the law should part 那就 of process uh， in defining the afghan laws and constitution. And so um you know it's really telling that know it's almost like when you you start a company, you trying to create a product and you set to a customer business gotto figure out what the product you got to make want IT. And then the idea for the starter works.

The problem here is our views as as a nation and maybe western democracy doesn't necessarily fit with what that market wants. And we can certainly make the case that we believe that our ethics and our values are superior and provide more than opportunity for individual freedom and liberty, things that we believe. Should be available around the world.

But if the markets not buying IT, the customers don't want IT. You're really just raising a ton of venture money trying to create a product that no one really wants in. At the end of the day, you your trillion dollars down and you have to shut the thing down and IT goes bankrupt. And that's effectively what went down here. And if you look at the history of afghanistan, remember, they were in the soviet afghan war in the eighties, near to the entire decade of the eighties.

那么 台湾， 我们 provided a degree of stability of the unities and then all of a sudden this alka nine eleven war began um you know after taliban had been in power for a year。 And it's been twenty plus years of story and or twenty years of strife and chAllenge where the population have increasingly viewed the government to be corrupt, businesses to be corrupt. And here's a really interesting statistic um which also came out of this um polling the gala us over the last ten years, the percentage of afghans that are happy with their present household income has gone or are not happy, sorry, with their present household income has gone from sixty percent to ninety percent.

Nine out of ten afghans as of last year were not making enough money to make ends meet. So you put all of these facts together. You've got this long history of strife with this, you know, company are effectively coming in and trying to tell you how to run your government, how to run your your country.

That doesn't match with your beliefs on on, on your your the way you think the government should be built. You've got all this turmoil that happened historically. You IT was um I would say to some degree this inevitable failure of the startup that got over funded, that never found product market said that never really got off the ground. Certainly the exit strategy of how do you wine something down in this case and IT certainly tes to human lives and the tragedy of the partners that we had on the ground um was totally this handle. But the broader picture here is like.

I think it's more corrupt than that. I think that we basically engaged in two trillion dollar wealth transfer from the people of the united states, the citizens of the united states of the military industrial complex.

That's what we did. Well, I mean, I have two points I want to, I want to build on from from yu sy burger and now yours to mop, which is the original Mandate here was to go and get rid of volcano and to also, you know, kill or some of the lot, and to not have a the taliban giving safe harbor to okada that quick. That mission got accomplished in large part in the first year, too.

And then, uh, when we finally got to, oh, some of the lot in pakistan, I think IT, we would have been a Better idea to understand. This is an unwind, noble war. Get in there, destroy the tent, ban and leave, and then say, if you come back will do IT again. But we're not to stay here for twenty years, to your point freeburg, and try to create a revolution if the people are not ready for IT. I think that we have to start looking at our foreign policy and saying we do we do have a Better view of human rights clearly than the middle east ah and certainly afghanistan and we do want to promote human rights around the .

world and freedom we're not doing that. We're we're not freedom fighters of democracy or justice. We are LED we we are LED by motives of revenue and profit.

I know that we should be. And when we went and we kicked the noses asses, uh, and we beat japan, when, you know they were trying to dominate the world, we were doing IT to stop communism. And I think when you look at nation building in these these kind of revolutions, to freeburg point, they have to want IT as well.

So we should be working with the countries that are teetering on going from authoritarian m to cracking. And we should take the high ground. And we should be the authority of the world because we are not who's going to be.

I think I agree with that part, but I think the right thing to do is just to open our doors and say, you know what? Where here there is a draft, right? And the smart and the capable in the willing, we're willing to basically bring uh inside of our borders so that they can work on our behalf.

And that's what other countries, I think, get right about all of the stuff like again, as a canadian um you know the canadian perspective of this is not that you deploy troops and you get embroiled in these you know debacle les over twenty years and thousands of lives in trillion of dollars is the exact opposite. They are there to support humAnitary arian efforts right there, there to send peacekeeping forces as they need to. But otherwise their real response is to actually then open the borders for folks that wanted be there, who are then wanting to trade up jin to those values, because that's the simple way to self like. Instead of saying i'm going to impose my version of democracy over there, i'm actually gonna show you what our version looks like over here. And if you want to come.

the doors are also certainly being an example is step one. And we I think to do that largely well, but we do need to sometimes intervene. And I think that's the question here, is when is IT just to intervene when there are human rights on the line and the country is teetering on authoritarians m or democracy.

like where is that line? The just cause here was to go get a soma bit long because he attacked us and we should have got out of that country as soon as we realize that bit lawn was no longer there. I mean, that was basically after the battle of tora bora.

And if we didn't leave, then we certainly should have left after we got been lauded in around two thousand ten. So what are we still doing there? We are engaging this exercise of nation building, which, by the way, we spent six trillion dollars on nation building exercises, is in the middle east, between afghanistan and in iraq.

For what? For not? This is why the elector is in such a file mood.

How many of our domestic disputes are caused by the fact that we square that six trillion dollars that's more than bines entire domestic agenda, you know? So we wasted all this money to fever this point. We never understood the culture there.

And such a moss point IT was a giant money funding Operation to defense contractors. There's a great piece reporting by an independent journalists and Michael Tracy, and he talked to front line runs about the wasteful spending. You theyd send twelve humvees to some local afghan partner, only two of them.

Whatever get there. The other ten words would break down and disappear, and nobody even know where all the money went. IT was like an unbelievable orgy of of wastefulness.

And no one other important detail on this. There's a guy who I think should be much more famous, all of us. His name is john f.

sop. co. He's a special inspector, a general for afghanistan and reconstruction. That short for cigar. He was appointed congress about thirteen years ago to look into what was really happening in afghanistan and to report on, quote, court, quite, lessons learned from the afghan war.

And so for thirteen years, sop code has been very quietly dillion gently interviewing people to everyone from front line troops to commanders about what's really been happening in afghanistan. And he's been releasing these reports that everyone in dc knows about, but nobody in the country knows about. Let me just read you these.

These are just the chapter titles from his latest report OK this. The chapter titles harmful spending patterns, resistance to honesty, personnel struggles, willful disregard for critical information, incorrect theory of change, poor understanding of local context. And but by the way, that includes ignoring things like the sexual abuse of Young boys by afghan war lords of our allies.

Okay, which is new york times reported on, we completely swept that onto the rug. Okay, this is the table of contents. Okay, from one of his .

latest reports.

which is about a the whole time, I mean, while the guy sopco the guard, the special spector general was telling us to truth that what was happening, you've got the pentagon telling us and the elected leaders the whole time that we're winning the swar, that things are improving, that all these bogus metrics to prove IT and you know so a systemic failure.

But sex, what would be their motivation to say it's not working?

Look, I think I think that well, right.

the number you can fix what you don't measure. And so basically like if you want to lie there, you have that, we have that now for twenty years of line.

Let's look the metrics because this actually important point.

But this is my point, is like what's what what's the objective for them to be measured? What's the objective in that the .

objectivity of demons objectively to demonstrate leadership? The objective is to basically say, you know what, this is really not working, and this is about putting yourself in the position of a person whose child is over there OK.

If any of our children were there who signed up because they thought they wanted to do the right thing, and and and we know, be in the army, or the naive, or of the marines found themselves in afghanistan, god killed god, heaven forbid. And then that body comes back. And through this report comes with IT, which is effectively what IT is.

Okay, this is the quota to the death of two point, you know, twenty four hundred americans and two trillion dollars. I would be so heart broken. I am heart broken.

Just thinking about this like this is not that's not what we're about. So we can keep doing this and we can't keep lying. We can't rationalize lying anymore.

right? Why I agree with that and only to speak to the point about the metrics because the problem was not that we didn't have any metrics. The problem is that the metrix or bogus. Now why is that? Well, first of all, the mission was very unclear.

It's not clear how you measure the success of transforming a country to f like afghans and to our, I mean, what really are the metric for that? So what the military started doing is not measuring outputs, but measuring inputs. So you have know the commanders on the ground saying, well, today we trained one thousand new afghan troops, okay, but what they don't say is that over ninety percent of those troops are literate and eighty five percent of them are on drugs.

I mean, and this is what the journalists were on the ground when they would do the interviews with with these front line commanders or trainers, they would find this out. Now, why was that this in the report? Well, because the military is a culture, is based on advancement, is basically the pentagon is a big country club, is a big insiders club.

There's a dogma. The dogma was we're winning the war, and if you want to advance that organization, you're not can be the one. You're not can be the sunk at the garden party who tells the generals that they're full of shit.

You're basically me, the guy who gives them the metric they wanted hear and then their boss, the person who's the boss of the front line guy is going to improve things twenty percent. He's going to see things another twenty percent. And then the next guy in the chain of command shades since twenty percent.

And by the time you get all the way to the top, the chairman of the George chief s, is telling biden, we have an army that three hundred thousand strong. These guys are going to take over the country. We're not have a problem.

We're going to have plenty of time to get our people out. And that is why we had a lackey disco withdraw strategy these guys thought they had all the time in the world because systemically, they've been pushing themselves about having a three hundred thousand and affghan army. And then when you actually look under the hot of this thing, there is no army. This is a basically a bunch of photographs. Y.

I think what happened at the end of this thing is even more dangerous for the future. On top of everything you said, David, which I agree with, is that what we basically said is that we will engage in whatever cover up is necessary because we're not willing to lead and talk about the mistakes we've made and to do the things that are necessarily to really fix IT. And that's what's really fucked inside because as he said, as he said, sucks.

The minute that you knew that bladon wasn't there, we had a choice. Then the minute you knew that he was already dead, we had a choice. And the choice was to do the fucking and right thing.

And instead, what happened was we got caught up in virtue signal, we ve got caught up in personal advancement, we got caught up in the grip, we got caught up in graph, we got caught up in corruption. We got caught up in the, you know, military industrial complex. And here's, here's where we are. And the crazy thing is biden had a moment where he could have stepped in and said, you know what, guys, i'm looking at all of this data, here's the new plan. And he didn't do IT either.

Let me ask your question if bite. And had run an orderly exit, and then inspired into taliban. And and read back to what I was, how would you feel about all this?

That would be that .

the goal trump wanted to get out. Yes, and buy in both want get. So we just executed twice as good or fifty percent Better. There be no problem here.

We all want to be out. correct? Yes, decided the decision to get out was a seventy percent popular decision when bitten made the decision in April and .

then just made.

that was a big decision to get out. This, not pretend otherwise. IT was clearly the correct decision to get out, but here's a screwed that up.

okay? And there's some blame that each a portion to bite in to the to the generals. And we don't really know who screwed up, but collectively, they did the big mistake.

The original thing of this withdrawal is that they pulled out of bgrm airfield at the beginning of july. Okay, they didn't just pull out. They literally ghosted the after at me.

They pulled out in the middle night without telling anybody. The afghans, a army who are allies, woke up the next morning, and the americans were just gone and the electricity had been turned off. I mean, this was unbelievable.

And so the problem is we then lost our air superiority over the country. We lost our ability to conduct close combat air support. We lost our ability to do a master evacuation.

okay? We basically gave up our central military action in the country before we got the civilians out, before we got our allies out. And there were eighteen thousand of these so called sides, the special immigration visas.

These are the afghan ih translators and helpers who are emitted in our combat u units. The the state department, meanwhile, was totally caught up in reaux, racy, slow walking their applications. Those eighteen thousand translators are now stuck there.

okay? They have fifty thousand dependence. Were talking about spouses and children and that, so they have no way of getting out. And then the final thing that just takes the cake is that we gave a list to the taliban of, here's our biggest helps .

when if they go to the checkpoints.

we want you to let them. I mean, this is really unforgivable and it's and it's and this was is not like this was unknown. Okay, there was a bypassing on working group of both democrats and republicans who wrote a letter to blinking at the state department back in may saying we should trade of about the safety of our asked.

You need to get them out. Now the state department is taking too long processing the special immigration visas you're told caught up in retape bureaucracies solve this problem. Blinkin did nothing. He was another deer caught in the headlights.

They could have also just, uh, instead of making people fill out all these forms and all these red tape, I heard one comment or saying, like the right thing to do in situations like this is to just get everybody out, put them in a holding uh location and then process them there.

In other words, if this person says were transplant their family, they have relatively good paperwork, get him out, put them into that holding pattern, and then figure out tata process. And later we got a wrap on this discussion, gets to some other topics. But the interesting thing to watch here is what's going to be the future of afghanistan and automotive guys.

I saw the financial time story, but china is watching this a like a hawk. And they have in russia just sitting their laughing. Well, china is even worse. They have aspirations of partnership in region with pakistan already and afghanistan and building superhighways and expanding their train network and having their own silk road, essentially to get to the middle ast from china. And this is going to be the a access of united states of ism by np.

If I was OK for us to stage military resources from, you know, from from from close quarters in asia and food was like, no go check.

And I think what what you just point IT out is the motivating factor for um having a presence in this and other similar similarly situated territories around the world. Yeah, a lot of people assume it's about imperialism and imposing kind of american democratic principles and ideals. I think that's the way the narrative of is sold internally here at this country. But the truth from the intelligence community, and I think the folks that maybe our a little bit more thoughtful and long term thinking about this sort of stuff, is that the absence of american presence in certain parts of the world will enable um the uh the success of what we were considered competing states globally um and you know there is still that unanswering question ultimately of how do we compete on a ble stage um given what is currently um a very negative view on our having a presence overseas, the military presence overseas, the physical presence overseas um in these sorts of territory ics and IT beggs the question of does that really set us up for chAllenges and failures and twenty for a centuries the nation state um as the other global players, in particular china, you take advantage of .

these openings yeah why I agree with that and to say why china is so smart and we are so dumb. China is going to afghanistan right now and cutting deals with the taliban to build a highway so they can get to the rare earth minerals, which afghans stan is, Richie, and they're going to use the superhighway they're going to build to get that out and feed their economy. That is how they're going to spend their capital in a ghani stan.

Meanwhile, we spent over two trillion, and we have nothing to show for IT you. They go abroad in search of rare earth minerals. We go there to lecture people on toxic masculinity. IT is absurd. okay? Now the president .

know IT sex is a little too cynical. We were also protecting, we were .

educating them and forget them, we go to they. Then, then.

that's right. We go there. Electrons in their .

pronounce that that is far cynical. Now we went there to protect some people who wanted democracy and to allow women to read and to be for flush that.

flush that right down .

the toilet can free. But David.

David is right. We knew that the minute we pulled out, we were casting fifty percent of that population to a complete state of status that was completely not known.

So what are some facts that we should have stayed there?

Some present is like the argument. No.

told the truth. We should have just told the truth. We are leaving.

We don't have a plan. And this is gonna sk, all women. It's going to risk people that helps us. And we are not sure what's gna happen, but you know what? We decided relieving that was the truth.

I remember the vietnam war. We killed two million vietnam es to make the country, say, for democracy, you don't want to into me at the end of that, we'd rather have our two million people back. We see these wars in terms of ideology.

We think we're going there to spread democracy. They see IT in terms of nationalism. All they see is a foreign invader trying to impose their values. That's why they don't buy into what we're doing.

And by the way, the whole idea that we're going to plant medicine, democracy in the soil of the middle east, that was a twenty year folly that costs us trillions. And one of the reasons why there are no medicine over there, there are no medicines, there are no jeffson es, there are no washingtons. Who is going na take up that? Cause what we had in afghanistan is this president godi, who is a crook, who is off on the first helicopter of our dollars. That is how stupid we are.

It's the last place we should be trying to do democracy. There's other places where it's tethering, and we can probably be more helpful.

American president jack quincy adam, this is where amErica had a rational foreign policy. He said. AmErica does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy that used to be our foreign policy. Now we involve ourselves all over the world to impose our values for no reasons. IT is costing us a fortune and is LED to the crumbling of the market of the american wealth.

Empower and IT completely erodes our trust and institutions, particularly the institution of the federal government. And we're left just scratching our head saying, if not these guys and who is going to to be .

if if cheatham, uh, sacks, if you don't want to, if you don't want to support democratic role, what happens to taiwan in your world?

This sign taiwan's death word. I'm sorry, but you should just .

assume that go.

No, my point is the following. Taiwan will, when the, when P, R, C has the right window, be under complete chinese control. And we because of how we have executed this and how we've executed the rest of our medal ation strategy means that we will not really engage.

And the reason is because IT will be an enormous food fight inside the united states, where all of these past experiences of us fucking the sup will come up should we defend iwan. Except, by the way, the differences, we're not going to we would not be going to war with a bunch of like fucking tribal people in the mountains Carrying sticks. And eighty, forty seven from the eighties. This is china, so different if we can beat and win in afghanis.

I mean, we.

what are jet? I mean, i'm sorry, guys.

but he is alone. It's not worth IT with a group of japan, south america, australia and the u. We should be defending tai, one of my mind. What do you think freeboard? Should we try and defend taiwan when this inevitably leads to the chinese government finding the window is to is predicting again.

I don't think that the motivating factor could necessarily be imposing democratic principles as the priority. If you were to to to actually weigh that decision, you would realize that you should probably have a presence in some light american countries. We should probably have a presence in central africa, where the authority, an regimes that are doing terrible things, but we don't have a competing global interest there to defend against.

What would be clear, taiwan is right now democratic, so we will be defending a democracy .

freeboard jacot. Asking a specific question, if china invades taiwan, do you think the united states should get involved .

on the principle basis? Or do I think the united states will get involved? Either one? yeah.

I mean, I think the chAllenge is the escalation. China, right? So that's going to be the big calculus. It's really about what's the what's the long term costs, certainly on on a principle basis, you say let's go defend the week can go protect them because they they share principle and idea als with us.

But the the the backlash, the chAllenge would be if we were to do this, global trade would stall. There would be a massive um issues at home with people saying that we're getting involved in overseas war. All of the reasons that from a political perspective would stall our economy will cause all these you know i'm kind of um speculating a big here, but the actual cost isn't just about sending a few thousand troops over surrounding the island and protecting people.

It's actually much more severe than map. And if you were a way IT IT could be that we end up with twenty five thirty million people losing their jobs over the next decade because of the economic fallout that occurs um in are doing that and so on and so forth and a lot of american prosperity that we get to enjoy um you know of the clients. And so that's the real calculus. And I don't know how to do that calculus, but I think that is the calculus that, that is being done by the intelligence community. Answer question.

let's wing IT to sex to do a little a bit more of this ago because we're talking about here, is not giving up an authoritarian state that wants to be authority. And we're talking about a democracy on the risk board that would be taken and flipped from a democracy like hong gang g has been flipped.

I think it's, I think, a very important distinction that taiwan is already a democracy. They ve got there on their own theyve done a lot of hard work building that country. Since a that the country became separate from mainland in china, I think in one thousand hundred and forty five is never been under the control of the ccp.

It's it's free enterprise system, democratic capitalism there, specially twenty four million free souls who live on that island. And if we show any weakness, and we Frankly already have by what we've done, the middle east, if we show any weakness, they will fall under the boot of the communist regime. So I think it's there's a big difference between trying to plant democracy or nation, build verse in a country that's never had IT before thousands of years, and basically being friends, analyze with the country that already is a democracy and just wants to be free.

And I think our message to china should just be we like things the way they are. We don't want them to change. That's IT.

We have policy of was called strategic ambiguity to taiwan IT basically says that we may come to the defense of taiwan or remain not. And I think we should continue with our policy. I think our message should just be we like the status quo. We don't think you should change. Let's leave things alone.

I think that that's fine, but I think we need to be investing hundreds of billions. The trillions of dollars we wasted in afghanistan could have bit Better serve building an infrastructure in amErica for chips and semiconductors and a bunch of these critical components because then IT would give us a lot more bargaining room to uh actually be able to play out that strategic ambiguity more fully. I think the reality is that despite the policy framework, the practical economic reality is that we would be engulfed in a war if if taiwan were taken over by china, because, as three burke said, our economy would ground to a halt because those critical assets are linchpins for how massive swath of the american economy work.

Yeah, tell you one thing we should be making plans for. I don't know if if our military is complete enough, but we've talked on this pod before about how about seventy percent of the advanced chips come out of taiwan. Companies like T, S, M, C, if china takes over that island, I mean, those chips are the new oil, right? We're going to be dependent on them in a way we never should be far.

Supply chain, you're right to mouth. We never should gotten this dependent. But Frankly, our military needs have a plan to sabotage those chip factories because we can let them fall into the control of C, C. P. I don't know if they're enough to do that, but if taiwan falls, that needs to be a poison choice for the ccp.

We're going to need to make some decisions here because russia with crimea and the ukraine and their ambitions and then china taking over a hong kong and looking at taiwan. I mean, I think the lesson here is if you're a dictator and you are allowed to take over other regions and other countries, you're not going to stop, is the nature of dictators. And we have to at least put our foot down. Afghanistan's is shao, but these other places footed right now.

J, we're stumbling is a serious problems. And so we need we need to sort of like recent ourselves and get momentum. You to use a poker analogy, we basically just blocked off half our stack with the jacket e off suit. And then and then when you get the askin suited, you have no chips to play with. Yeah, right?

Created .

nine. Put us on tight. okay? And we've been losing pots for the last twenty years. Yeah, now we just lost the big one. And the question is to to most point, we will lose the rest stack going to go take a walk .

around the block like .

sitting thing. China is going in the opposite direction in a way that could actually help us. Meaning, like you, it's it's a pretty scary set of things that's happening over there.

But it's also a kind of instructive about how we could recent ourselves because there they're actually enacting the laws that we all talk about. We've been talking about for seven months, but they're actually willing to do IT. And they and so if american policy makers .

would we give to whats going on over there with the china, should we go to robotics?

Uh, let's just finish china, then we can and then and then we can .

talk about china is continuing their uh, crackdown of tech companies uh, and has proposed a ban on foreign ipos. The wall street journal had some exclusive reporting today. I'd read a quote then handed over to chmagh china plans to propose new rules that would ban companies with large amounts of sensitive consumer data from going public in the U.

S. People familiar with the matter said. And in addition to that, uh, under these new rules, they are looking at the algorithms that are being run uh, and different services and making them transparent.

And the chinese government will basically control the algorithms that of course, so much chaos here in the united states with facebook and twitter and youtube. And then finally, they are going to close the looper on V I S chem. I want to explain what this means from a market perspective.

Today's a really big day um because of these things, Jason is you just said so let me just break this down because I think it's interesting for us to all learn about this together. So one thing is around the technology, which i'll talk about in the second, which you just prum uh talked about and then uh previewed. And then the the second is around the capital markets in the money flow, and that in this is a really big deal.

So what is A V I E? Because you're gna hear this a lot. A V I is what's called the variable interest entity. And what IT is, is just a massive work around. So essentially what happened was, uh, A V I E was a legal business where you know an entity had control of a company, okay, through a contract but not through equity.

So it's kind of like, you know, sax, like I had a contract with Colin that said, I can dictate you know who does what is actually, but I don't know in the equity now, the the company that completely ran a fellow of all of these things was and run and back in two thousand and one and on went fucking ham. As we all know, they had a bunch of these V I. S.

And they used that to basically shield a bunch of losses and do a bunch of shady things. So then there was a bunch of accounting laws that were introduced. China, on a completely separate track around that same time was, I K listen, we want to control our economy, so we're going to prohibit foreign ownership.

So just for all you guys to know, china to this state does not allow a foregone to own a peace. A large sections of the chinese economy. okay. So as of twenty eighteen, which is the last updated list as part I could find IT, there are thirty three sectors of the economy where china says you cannot be a foreigner and own any .

equity to a local partner.

No, you cannot own any equity exactly. Look.

part of there, you have to have a partner like yahoo did.

So all technology companies fall under this, all data companies, any education companies, media company. So you can imagine it's basically every part of the economy that matters. And so with because of all these restrictions, you know the chinese internet companies were like, he hold on a second, I need to get access to the capital barkeep what do I do? They dusted off the vie structure and they basically created all of these um you know comments holding companies and that's where all the american investors would go and buy equity from or contribute equity too.

And so you know ten ent alibaba by deo D D 点 com J D all of these folks have these V I S。 And what's interesting about these vies is it's written clear as day, but not a single investor seem to care. But in the prospectus of these chinese companies, they are clear.

IT doesn't mean you actually have a claim on the assets. IT doesn't mean you can actually make a demand of management. I mean, if you saw this in american perspectives, you would not put a single dollar into these companies.

But in fact, the exact opposite happen because people were greedy and chasing the money and and these risks, by the way, came back to bark. And I think you are the one that gave the example of the chinese tutor guys where, you know, overnight, this guy lost ninety nine percent of his networks. I think this is a one or two POS ago.

The way they did that was that they cancelled the V I. S. They said online to dering, nope, sorry, these things can exist anymore. And so essentially we have the situation now where A V I S are part of fifty eight companies, uh, massive chinese mega cap companies that are in the huge e indexes in in the united states. These fifty eight companies account for trillion dollars of mark.

We are where we are now in a situation now where the chinese government basically says for online turing rogate to cancel the V I S. In a bunch of other areas, we're going na start with regulation. We could cancel the vie later. And so we've essentially put the capital markets, in my opinion, on pause. And so now let's transition .

to this is in china.

Capital markets in china, I think, now are the most volatile they've ever been, essentially the people's republic of china. The government, the C, C, P, chooses how and who will make money, and they are basically putting their foot down in a big way in the cap.

What happens to the one point six two trillion in existing shares that have been bought by people around the world? Would there will be some way to unravel that or attender offer?

You can have to deal with these ads. I don't exactly know what would happen. I think what I know you have capital decision because when they cancelled the online during vii, the stock Prices basically went to zero. So you could visceral two trillion dollars of market after tomorrow if they decide, you know what, that V I E for alibaba, by the way, neck sent to you. But it's a, it's a thing of art.

If you look at the V I E structure for babbo, I mean, IT is a fucking brush at all of nesting entities in this that I don't know how any investor who bought chairs in alibaba actually took the time to understand what they were actually buying. They suspended disbelief because they were greedy. So so the point is that happening OK.

So the the capital markets are now, I think, getting uh, really constrained. The compliment to this is that they're starting to now introduced legislation has a prelude, in my opinion, to canceling some of these vies in the most important area that we care about, which is tech. So this, into your point, the chinese cyber space watchdog today or yesterday, I think that was they just published a list of draft regulations that will now become long.

I'm just going to read this to you. So, uh, let me just just fly I for you guys. So let me just give you sense of them. Users must be provided with a convenient way to see and delete all the keywords that an algorithm uses to profile them.

Number two, providers shall not that providers shall not record illegal and undesirable keywords in the user points of interest or as user tags and push information content to them and they may not become discriminate, tory or bias based on that information um users must be informed that algorithms are being used on them to recommend content products to them, and they must be allowed to opt out and see completely generic non personalized results. The algorithm recommendation shall IT here to make. This is incredible to mainstream values.

I don't know what that means. They must ask harmony in china. They must actively spread positive energy and promote the application of algorithms for the Better provider shall regularly review and evaluate and verify these algorithms, models and data with these watchdogs.

These watchdogs will now start to increasingly take board seats on the on on chinese company is so you put these students together, IT is a take moment in china attack. It's a takeover. yes.

yes. I mean, so some of those provisions sound like, you know, privacy regulations we might want to adopt over here completely. But I think we should focus on the one towards the end that you mentioned, the algorithm recommendation service providers show the here to makes me values actively spread positive energy and promote application hours for the Better.

Now how do you actively spread positive energy? I mean, as a business person under that regulation, like what does that even mean? I mean.

IT basic means that means what you're not spreading, David IT means you're not spreading a protest in hong kong IT means you're not talking about the wagers IT means you're not talking about tandem square. You're not creating social unrest this is a way for them to say, you know, positive energy means don't criticize useing ping or the ccp or bring up topics out in the nofa es like the weekend well.

they're going to have constant moderation .

and bring IT all into their control that's I mean, this is the type of thing that, despite all of our problems, makes me very happy to be in american.

Yeah I say the the .

first part of what I said about the regulations, to me, seem really intelligent, and I think americans would want that. And if american policymakers would actually just suspend this belief or second, go to the chinese website with nick, we can put a link into the into the showing tes of where the regulations were published and actually try to implement those laws. I think as americans, we all want most of them, except that one. Yeah, well.

that's what the devil does. They mix the lives with the truth. And what did to get you to be convinced, ed, to give up your freedoms. freedoms. G what are you that .

i'm getting increasingly convinced of this idea of what decentralized blockchain base government governing might work in the twenty four, seven, seven? I just feel like there that you know we keep hearing more about the overreach and the inaptitude of uh centralized institutions like uh, C C P. And the U. S. government.

And you know.

i'm not here and anyone that says, man, you know, this is a great.

I like.

but freeze G.

I think I think the C C P is actually pretty good. And what they do, we may not agree with them.

but I think they're I generally but I do think IT IT creates an incentive and a motivation also because if you don't agree with their their principles, you know you're going to find yourself looking for an alternative. So you know I don't know which this is probably not the right time or forum for this conversation. We should probably do IT on another show, but we should talk about um some of the innovations, a blockin innovations that that that are taking place. And jack, I know you end a lot of time on this as well, but you know be worth kind of talking about the notion that you know can you see um governing move to the ball chain um and what does society look like and maybe the twenty second century if this becomes the reality and how do how does the world kind of evolve there?

Well, in the crypto world you would put in some effort, you would have some skin in the game, and you would, because of your processing power, your nodes on the network, we get some votes who would be like in a democracy, how much money you had, or how much work you produced. You had some sort of say, which kind sounds like cars.

I can imagine if the U. S. Government, instead of, you know, having some folks go to congress and say, I want a trillion dollars and spend twenty five years in afghanistan, you know IT was more of a distributed decision making process where data was available in real time metrics were used to make the decision.

And um the folks that actually contributed dollars uh to the network ended up being the ones that made the decisions based on how many dollars that contribute or based on some other principle of decision making. Um that doesn't kind of aggregate institutional and attitude, uh, which is kind of part of this year we've seen here. Well.

so I think that brings up an interesting point, which is then we talk about all the ways that we could have spent these trillions of dollars Better the nation building. Here's here's the fundamental. And I agree with that.

I mean, I wish we had spent six string, an that we spent on nation building in middle. I wish we had spent that at home domestically on our own priorities. But here's the problem is I think what afghanistan, specifically the military industrial complex, shows is how good these special interest get at extracting money from the system while providing so little value.

You know, we spent, these contractors spend or they they charged so much to basically deliver so little afghanistan. Do you really think it's going to be much different for the trillion dollar, the one point two trillion dollar infrastructure bill that's coming? You know and if we created this looking their lips, yeah exactly the people, the groups, you're going to get that money, who are going to feast on that trillion dollars, are people who their skill set is lobbying. Okay, that is what they spend their time doing.

No, listen.

And if you are really good at lobbying, why would you even waste your time trying to get good at delivering value? You're not. That's your business.

Is lois your value?

exactly. So this idea that we can basically spend a trillion dollars on some domestic innovation program, the promise that it'll never go to the right people, never go to the innovators.

the best thing .

we can do is not spend the money.

quite Frankly. So smaller government.

how how about this? Not a government that's twenty trillion dollars in debt. I don't know how it's like smaller or smaller government to if we were to save six trillion, would still be fourteen trillion in debt. Saw a small government.

I think they're good jumping off point here might be the supreme court eviction moratorium, uh, in the supreme court not upholding IT and where you thoughts on that sex because IT does relate to this never ending free money train, no repercussion ons. Of personal behavior and you know spending insanely forever IT seems like we're never going to stop with the still yeah I think .

this stream court throughout bitten of victimology oria as unconstitional tional look, I think it's great. The government should not be preventing eviction, specially not the government I have to supposed to work. I mean, all you look, I don't want to see anybody get evicted, but the reality is you have to pay your rents. And if and if there are goes of people who can pay the rent and the government decides that that those people should be helped, the right way to help them is to given the money to pay their rent notice to tell landlord, sorry, like you can .

collect commerce, get more people yes.

it's a taking. It's a clear taking from land lords to say that, oh, your tennis enough to pay you anymore.

How does that make sense? Well, how do we unwind the free money train? Because there's ten million job openings right now. They are not getting filled. And then we have unemployment starting to unwind or the bonus unemployment are.

And then we have all this, uh, free rent concept, just you don't have to pay your rent at at some point IT IT feels like we have to let the free market come back and maybe people can't pay their rent so they go take one of the ten million jobs. I know that sounds cold, harden. No.

just sometimes you've talked about this before in california. We have a labor shortage in california because we've basically run a control experiment in the u. Ubi, universal basic income with basement, paying people not to work or paying them regards to whether they work.

Guess what? They don't take jobs. And so we actually have a labor shorge in california despite having high unemployment. At some point, the governments can have to say to people like, look, covet is not an excuse for shirking your door.

Responsibility lies, you know, we all have responsibility to go to work, to pay our rent, you to pay our parking tickets. And covet has been this excuse for suspending you, this this sort of Normal life. And the problem is, covet is going to be round forever.

It's like the color of the flu. IT can continue to be the excuse for people not working, not paying rent, not doing with this. First we doing I .

think I talk about that though I think, Jason, maybe you wanna talk about that. I think on top of that, we uh, are amplifying the by taking people's agency away and we are pro p 2 and prop twenty two is a perfect example of that， which you should talk about. But when you put these two things together, on the one hand, you have a government that basically wants to subsidize a opting out of the system and then you have a set of laws that, if they're not unwound, reinforced that dynamic and you put these two things together and folks just wanted sit on the sidelines yeah let's get .

freeze up of a freezer. You want to talk about the prop two um supreme quite decision exeter .

yeah there was an appeals court appeals appeals court that uh over turn some elements of via california p twenty two, which was a heavily lobby called new proposition lobby by uber and lift and other um businesses that have built effectively marketplaces for independent contractors like drivers and delivery people and so on. The S I U which is a big employees union had um you know fought very hard to pass legislation in california that made IT um effectively very difficult for keyboard to Operate its independent contractors and forcing companies like ubn live to treat them like full time employees or to treat them like employees as a prop twenty two was to counter the union funded legislation um which basically provided more freedom and flexibility to workers where there on't all these very arbitrary random rules that if you're a writer you can be an independent contract but if you're driver you cannot you know all this nonsense that that took place because the unions increase the scale and scope of of their union base um until prop twenty two was past in california after much spending a lobbying and IT passed by a predestined margin and then this court ruling basically in the appeals court overruled the constitutional ality of some elements approved twenty two which brings into question whether that proper point two is actually gonna ld in california therefore are all these people who are drivers for uber delivery people for gorda um and all these companies that are creating like dumb tack and you know all these companies are creating marketplaces for individuals to have flexible work to go and work where they want when they want to find gigs. To find you know short term jobs, to find um you know tasks and projects that they can run.

Are they now going to be seeing that those marketplaces stop working? Because when you have to start in people like employees, the flexibility and freedom of those marketplaces enable stalls out and and kind of know as already think so, super nasty and applications are that we're now seeing um uh you know we're now facing once again this crisis of you know are are basically lower income people. People that want to have flexable labor going to be restricted from having access to to give jobs um because the unions want to force everyone into a full time job, which you know, as our friend bill girly pointed out.

is kind of like an rk element yeah gin. And here this there's .

one big issue that I don't think is talked about enough, which is if you pull the drivers, they're not looking for any changes. They're really happy with the flexible work product. If you look at the voters of california, they stepped up and voted and made IT very clear in a state that voted two to one, you know, in favor by.

And they came down very strong, sixty, forty that they didn't want this to happen. And there's one a entity that's really been pushing this the whole time, going all the way back to five. And that's the S I U.

IT is a single union, but to call a single union understates IT because they are the grandada of special interests groups. I sent along some data maybe could put on the screen um they spend more money lobbying than any other organization in our country. And half for many, many years the only represent two million members.

But the oddly, those members are in hospitality, health care and government services, not even in this industry. So they're taking the dose from their members and using IT to fight these battles because they want to expand their footprint. What they're really after is putting four hundred dollars, four hundred and twenty dollars, which is the minimum member union fee for the two million they have.

They want to expand that to these drivers. So they don't actually want to help them. They want to add to their cost. But there the one that's been pushing this the whole time. I I think .

it's worth just saying one thing on this, which is um you know this is a really kind of um a question not about california and prop twenty two, but it's a question about what is work and all the tech companies that are enabling a new form of work globally, people don't want to have forty hour with jobs. People don't want to have to go sit to desk all the time. People want to have flexibility in their lives.

They want to have gigs. Technology enables us to quickly find short term job, short term opportunity to work on things and make some money and figure out how we want to build our lives in a more flexible way, figure out workers want to build lives in a more flexable way across all industries. And um it's really uh Frankly um you know uh a non progressive policy to say that everyone has to be pigeonholed into working full time forty hour. We labor jobs be employees and not have the flexibility of running their own business in their own way with the uh with their own time and choosing what they want to go do and work on um and so this sort of legislation and this sort of battle is a really important one for defining the future of work in the united states, which will ultimately represent the future work globally.

And the craziness of all this, David, is that uber drivers lift drivers dorter drivers eeta are getting paid unfortunate because there is a labor shortage and these ritching companies have given a minimum of twenty one dollar an hour fee.

So I don't know exactly what's going on here, but IT seems to me like it's a union grab because everybody else who's affluent or rich realised folks, uh, you know, doctors, whoever can be freeLance, but if you're a right chair driver or a freeLance writer, you don't get to be. And IT seems just incredibly unfair. IT is. And you know.

one of the best things about covet, I think, for all of us is that we had learned that we could do our jobs from anywhere. We didn't have to go into an office. We didn't have have to work the standard, whatever, nine to six hours we could be anywhere.

We had flexibility. And I mean, I think it's one of the lasting consequences of cover that's but actually been very positive for a lot of people. And here you have the government basically trying to take away a prohibit free land work, flexible hours, a gig type jobs.

These are the sort of modern, flexible working relationship that people want. Why are they getting rid of IT? Because a lobbing pressure from the S.

I. U, which only has two million members of living a big union. But they got Lorena solis in their backpacks.

SHE passed A B. Five in california. The people at california didn't want to remember, eight percent of californians said we don't want this. So they overturned in this ballot initially.

And now you got this activist judge, basically you inventing these specious grounds for overturning prop twenty two, which is what the people want. So it's ridiculous. And you know, the common thread to me on the show that i've come to realize about american politics is this the degree of special interest corruption.

And you know, people are used of thinking in terms of levers is right? Is not. There's a special interest corruption that pervades everything. You've got this union that is destroying freeLance work, flex for working relationship because of corruption, because IT benefits them.

You ve got the defense contractors in afghanistan who are just looting, looting the pentagon and the federal budget, because is in their interest. You've got the special interest about the right and the left. This is the central problem in american politics. And you know, what they do to cover up the naked self interest is they disguise IT in a kind of work virtue signal. So they'll start know talking about how what they're doing is for the benefit of these drivers when the drivers didn't even want IT.

And to build on that, i'd say, you know migrate realization from out of this conversation with you all every week. Is that we are starting to propose a ani state in which people have no agency. Even if they want to have agency over their life and career, you are taking IT away. And then if there's no repercussions to people's behavior and they have no agency, they become, you know, this in franchised from society.

And why are they going to participate? And then what kind of society do we have if people can't make their own choices? And you see IT also in, you know, uh, accreditation laws, and you see that you were only rich people can invest and now you're seeing IT with this francy know my dad would have loved to have an extra shift or two to make extra money and he's not allowed to. Eighty percent drivers want flexibility.

They're willing to participate on things that ultimately um. On things that they think matter but don't necessarily solve the correct cause problems their people. Right now in america, I think our focus too much on symptoms, meaning, you know, uh, they want to fight for the right hashtags.

They want to fight for the right pronounce. They want to make sure that, you know, this person gets cancelled for things that happened eight or ten years ago. And I think what they don't understand is these are all symptoms, and this is, this is not what solves the problem, right?

We have a water crisis in america. We have a food, impending food crisis as we shut off the water. We have a climate crisis that engulfing the entire nation.

We're still in the middle of pandemic that we can't control. We have an economic system that's fragile, that's dependent on A A country whose someone times are friend and sometimes are four. In china, these are huge transformational issues that we can't get organized around.

And so instead, we spend our time at the edges on the symptoms, and we think the symptoms are where we get the pronounce right. Everything's gonna come together and everything's gone to get fixed. The looting will stop.

The graph will stop. The corruption will stop. And IT turns out, actually, IT involves those people to say, hey, wait, amin, i'm tricking these people.

Everything that I wanted to happen can happen. Let them focus on the pronounce. While I continue to lose the american treasury for another trillion dollars, that's where we are.

yeah. And the perfect the perfect representation that has gave a newsom he represents both of these trends, is one of the most corrupt governors. We were had there were as soon as cov IT happened, they suspend IT, uh, all sorts of the process for contracting so that his a campaign contributors could get all these special.

He cut a sweet deal to pg and e ABS ove them a liability for all the fires even causing. And on and on that goes the twelve billion arts, the homeless industrial complex. And then he disguise es IT with all this work, virtually.

Ally, and so, you know, I would just give a shut out to the recall campaign. The election is on the timber. Fourteen th for the belts have done out. If you want to send a message, the pool of class that the special interest corruption has got to stop. Let's cut the head off the snake here to vote to recall gaven among question one period.

Alright, you guys want to end on jeff bao s. To talk about .

the A I bot first and then basis alright.

So um if you have him in watching boston dynamics uh tweed, a video which will play right now as I talk over IT. And um it's basically the robots which have been picking up heavy objects in walking around doing part core. If you don't know what paro is, it's basically people jumping off the side of objects and flipping and doing baLance beams and involving themselves all around IT is basically great dancing in france.

We have IT .

from heights and jumping over things as .

the french like pcd .

experts yeah I mean, it's I think Parker is french for jumping. Uh, I made that up.

but I can you at .

the um no, I absolutely and I have never seen him. I seen him so drunk that he's on the floor. Never see them to park.

but don't get robots r this robot looks more .

dexterous than any of the terminators we saw in the films. And then adding to that, oh, if you didn't know boston dynamic who have bought by google, i'm sure free broken sting inside information on that and then they, uh, got sold again sort bank and about them and now they uh are owned by, uh handy, the southern handi, the southern auto maker because apparently the soft is that .

google .

didn't want to be involved in uh government contracting with robots. I E making soldiers of the future.

which obviously I don't know the chinese, I wouldn't characterize the whole story like that. I mean remember like google bw boston dynamics in two thousand thirteen, and remember those and I namic have been run for over a decade prior.

They fun out of M I T like in the nineties, I think um and they were had always been working on you know advanced neural nets being applied to kind of you know automation system so you could get things to mimic real life um and the idea at google this was when they had set up google x and we're starting to kind of do a lot of this um you know moonshot type c tech investing as a separate entity outside of the core. Google and I was like leveraging our to start new project. The idea was lets you build this into kind of the next general board s platform.

They had andy rubin, who previously started ran android um company was called danger. Google bought a turn into android um run run the unit and they made several other acquisitions. They rolled them all up into this kind of robotics platform. They had spent, I think, four hundred million on boston dynamics and hundreds millions more and these other companies um and ultimately, I think the chAllenge was less about like you know who does there doesn't want to do contract to us.

But IT was more about the fundamental question that is still the question mark today, uh, which is do we really need general purpose automation or do we need special purpose automation um for industries, for customers, right? Where do you find product market IT? Do people really need a robot that does part core or do they need an automation system can lift boxes and pack in place things, or automation system that can move things from point a to point b? And so if you're solving for a customers problem, you typically find that the special purpose automation solution is a more elegant, cheaper solution that you can get to market right away, like building an automated of little truck that move things around, or building a machine that lifts and put Prices .

in the right place. Of the discussion between narrow .

A I and general correct. And this is exactly the same question, jack Alice, like, is general a purpose A I really what the market needs or other specific applications of neural network receive learning technologies that allow us to solve for the problems that customers have without needing to replicate the human being. So when you're lifting boxes, you don't necessarily need all the other things that humans have, right?

You don't need to mimic a human. When you're moving a package, you don't necessarily, we need to have four likes to do IT. You can have IT on four wheels and just have A A simple system that moves IT around.

And so you know, I think soft bank no mosse and had this whole belief, which vision fun one, when he raised one hundred seven billion dollars, that you know, the new I where machines, we're going to be smarter and Better than humans in every way. Intelligence and dexterity and all these things we're about to we're about the past that moment. And this was part of that courtesy he had, which is this is gonna, the robotics company. Uh and I think as we've seen, they can mimic park core, but they can do all the other things humans can do. And if you you know trying to get a machine to do something that a customer needs, it's really not part.

let's be honest. They can even walk a dog because they would not have to deal with the h cases um if the dog had diary.

I think the dynamics certainly ally valuable for business is that are in special purpose automation, which there is going to be a great set of applications for leveraging that I P into some of the existing product lines and and customers .

that they serve. My related in related story, elon then revealed the tesla bot plans at his A I day. He's on a couple of ai. I think they are primarily designed um to get A I talent, which is some of the hardest developers to find in the world um and they said that their tesla bot will weigh one hundred twenty five pounds five eight so i'll be a half inch taller than IT um but I will always significantly less than me.

We will move up up to five miles per hour and can Carry forty five pounds uh elan said the reason he was doing that so a human can easily overtake IT in case to become sent in, which was quite entertaining, uh, traumatic. Think this is, what are the chances elon has a robot like this and um it's Operating in the world. They saw a bunch of journalists dunking on him that this would never ever happen, which is kind of hard to believe in.

There's million texas on the road. Yeah, no comment. And I think.

uh, it's also, oh, okay. Can I comment? Leave IT at that sex? Have any comments on this work with iron at paper?

Yeah, I thought .

he was a little bit .

surprised that he was working on A A robot um but you know obviously been an interest of his he's talked a lot about IT and so economic sense this another innovative thing he's doing so we talk .

about elon versus bezzle on the space robot at five. It's not as outlandish as saving some of the journalists and he is out there who don't build anything in the world who were kind of dunking on him. Like we're saying, if you think about those cars going sixty five, seventy five, eighty five miles an hour on the road processing in the world, doing a neural network machine, learning on the fly to figure out where the car should go, a roback going five miles an hour is an easier task.

I think all those people have dunked on him, should have just taken a step back and actually ask the question, am I just being really insecure right now? And if so, why am I making fun of this guy who just seems to be, you know, firing on all cylinders? And maybe it's maybe it's me. Maybe you know, maybe may be maybe i'm writing this article out of my own insecurity. Maybe i'm feeling a little impotent.

And also to dunk on on a guy for the version one, or even the versions zero, zero point one of a product is so ridiculous. I mean, I remember the version zero of tesla. Now look at the company. I mean, you know, it's about IT iterating. That's how you get .

to product.

So this is so stupid.

And short term, his style of doing these things, I think, makes a tena sense. When, you know, he started with starting IT was the same reaction. People were dunk, dunk, dunk ing, too slow, too expensive, not going to work.

And what you find through these events are really technical people building companies that could help him want to to be a part of the mission, right? And so, you know, for whatever it's worth to like, I think starlings gona be a real thing. I think this is probably going to be a real thing.

I think great companies will get absorbed into these these efforts. I think I think it's great. and. I really think the people that are just so low like there's like this loading going on, I just don't .

understand what do you think will differentiate the um opportunity for success with Larry page owning and running um boston dynamics, then masa owning and running boston dynamics and then you on trying to take on the same project from scratch, you know why were these other two kind of well capitalize influential businesses that have attract rate partners not been able to turn boston dynamics into kind of a successful business? But but you guys believe the .

one will if I had to just and I would say, uh, Larry is absent and is sitting on a hundred billion dollar fortune with no idea what to do. Um I think more seven islands yes. I mean he's just absent so he's irrelevant.

Um I don't think anybody knows what the fuck ky looks like. Um I mean we do. Um but uh you know he's father away. Enormous potential, I think um I think musa is a master capital allocated but not an engineer. And I think iran is the most important technical product in business mind of our lifetime.

I think the answers even simpler, he's the customer of the robot, so he understands what the spec should be because he has so many robots working in the factories. So he's going to buy the first thousand to go colonize mars or work at a space station to build shit in space and is going to have them working in the test of factory for the boring company Carrying rocks at the tones. He's the customer, of course he knows. And muscle wasn't the custom. Muscle was looking to increase whatever money he does.

but it's also it's also skills like muscle course. He's an incredible visionary and investor, but he's not going to be the guy in the engine room making the robot Larry know to inference Larry page. He could be that good.

And there was a moment in time where Larry was that good and Frankly, Better than elon. Um but that window has closed in its well past and now you know it's kind of like the player that just keeps getting Better and Better. I think that's the line .

mask good to actually that I mean.

nothing added that I think you both make great points. I mean, the amazing thing is that iran is still working so hard, doubling down, coming with new ideas, new initiatives. I, me, when most people are, you know, sure we do IT, Larry, did you know, go by an island? Seven and yours in hang out you know .

alright BIOS is lost his way um and he left his position as CEO of amazon to focus on blue origin and then he um sued NASA over the moon program accusing NASA wrongly a value lunar ler proposal giving all the funds to space acts he then did a series of like info graphics talking me about how terrible space sexist plans were um this loss who has delayed space sexist work on the project actually the verge that's true or not. Amazon urged the fcc to dismiss the newly limited plans for space x to launch another cluster of satellites to power star link and elon twists turns out basis retired in order to pursue a full time job filing lawsuits against space ex. Um which is a hilarious um how sad is this?

That is a huge miscalculation in the following way, which is that in order for jeff to achieve his ambitions, he needs deeply technical people. And this is the simplest way to basically turn them off, because this is not what technical people do, what technical people do. We don't we don't take our toys and run from the sandbox crying like a bitch. We stay there and we capitated trying to make things work.

Yeah, we don't act like patent rols. I have a new, have a new slogan for you. J. K, L. Winners do and losers sue.

Winners do and lose or so OK. Folks.

they have it's .

all in put get come back .

or big vacation make up.

make .

on the last.

I feel bad for baths. I feel like you just getting so beat up on the shit. Um it's honestly a little disappoint because I think he's got all the right intention is an incredible engineer, obviously incredible Operator. I'd love to see him, andy, on succeeded in the work they're trying to do as well as all the other startups that are pursuing this. I am concerned about, Frankly, the lack of commercial readiness for this industry.

I feel like in terms of the hike cycle or at that early point where the the the investment dollars in the number of companies succeeds, the market demand uh and therefore there's this um fight over the one or two customers, which is basically asa a general government and it's creating this really nasty set of circumstances because that's where the money comes from. That's where the customers are right now. And so they're all fighting over one or two customers. And you know you on filed suits um against the you know federal agencies when he lost contract.

and I know he did that when they no bid.

I get IT I get IT and snow, I get IT. But still like I think at the end of the day, you know basis is willing to put his money works now is he's offered to put up a billion dollars or more defunded. I'd love to see multiple uh companies enviously go to the moon, multiple coming I multi evensen go on to mars. But um rather than have you single contract with one customer um or have you private industry figure out wait to make money from this and and fund IT uh which which chAllenges just it's another product market this question right the market is one customer today. Um but bassus .

is almost sixty years old. He's got hundred, fifty, two hundred billion dollars. It's going to cost two or three billion dollars, one, two, three percent of his network to do all this, just fucking do .

IT base so and stop crying .

and competition. But he's losing the human capital that's required. So there is a huge a little test cycle about, uh, this one place was like the the leader of the of the lander project. We just quit moment to space. My point is other engineers don't want to see that this is the way to win.

He, he build, iterate .

and solve, build iterative self IT certainly .

seems the case that his P, R, stunt with shooting himself in the space didn't do many savers either know it's almost like everyone sees the great work you on us when he does these P R events and he gets all the .

attention and publicity and gets positive press mid. And then basel .

doesn't he's like basis .

has no .

best there 一个 they are they're not doing the job that other best .

if they are yes， men and women and they're not being true best. They need to tell him when he's got something that the blind spot and the best spot here is he was dunking on Richard brand and mean, like you didn't go to the right height here's an info graphic. S start with the fucking increase graphics basis.

What are you? Twelve old? And you're like going to the teacher would like a drawing.

Like I should technically get at a plus, and I should be singing the solo for a require practice. And like some other person is like got the solo. So next .

fee consulting fiji.

Will you be his basic.

By the way, I hired, I hire this, but nut he tries back with me. I mean, he literally ate everything on the plane.

And then, and I.

Let me, he said to me to math, you have some great toilets in the back I said, yes, you know, there's marvis. There's great tooth pressures and then out of his pocket, he pulled some scope bottles that .

he had more my bag. Was the real scope.

This mother fucker was, oh my god, this guy.

this mother .

faker, once was so buried, he got so fucking mad. He grabbed all the, acted in my, in a little medicine cabinet right now. thank. He was angry and he was, I come so fucking and angry because he had lost a big pot right during poker. Then he took all the pastries .

and show .

it's like an afghan warlord.

Three.

three, three.

I lost ten times. I'm going to get get back three, seven dollars and.

So I mean.

just .

as .

a side, I girl was, we talked about this early in the pandemic. Why don't we have fucking one dollar test freedoms? G, why does everybody not .

have a hundred bus everywhere? Era strips pennies .

to twenty books. Why is IT like a dollar? Why could died in or trump get that done? Is that some graft? graft. ft.

greed. Yeah, you need to talk about this. He's a the, uh, regard to talk about IT.

But I mean, people were taking those every day.

We I think you guys may remember this, I tweet about this over a year ago. Es, like last April, where we could actually print these antigen test for pennies in the U. S.

I mean, when we had like whole emergency authority thing, and we are making mass in liquid oxygen cans and otherness, we should have been printing other gen tests on scripts of paper. We have the facilities in the us. To do IT and we could have made you know a hundred billion fifty sanchez um and made of just uh free available to schools, to workplaces, to everything. It's it's absolutely sane people.

People can be free elth writers or drive in uber for two hours a day in california. We can mend that, but we can't Manda twenty five cent, fifty cent test and put him in. Everybody's fucked in.

Mail boxes are on fire now. Fuck and stupid. Everything is so dumb everywhere. A grifter in this government, incompetent assails.

I would like, I would like to, I would like to vote. I would like to go to, uh, war with, uh, fiji, because is beautiful. You I D like an island, and I think that fig probably has a lot of them. What fig is not respected? So closer um yeah so you .

go there print um .

also .

i'd like to go to war with iceland, but only in the summer time because I hear beautiful.

Over the geeta i'm gonna AR with four over geode. I'm going to occupy task ini for the pizza and the pasta i'm occupying task.

You'll need to build a background in all these places to accommodate .

all the private jetted are .

going to in I mean, which like in closing, let just say that to do the amazing people of .

italy for country.

for adults to .

go on .

vacation and in the FLorence .

is amazing .

tusky y is outrageous. pocket. bye. Great man.

We open sources to the fans, and we .

just got crazy with.

We should all just get a room, just have one big, huge, or because there are.

get.

那 你的。

David, sex, you come to me from your boat, essentially hunt my daughter's wedding day tax, you come to me and you ask me not to interpret you so that Henry bell caster can make a clean cut of your speech. Well, you get stuff like I never happened on the time me finish my, you want of this part, you want of this part on this part cast, who's the director? Who's the producer? I'll get you this part. But someday, sacks, i'm going to ask you for a favorite sacks, going to ask you for allocation in .

all in in .

your call in APP. Could I ask you to lead the series? B, and on that day, I expect evaluation cause measure IT with what i've done for you today. OK, David sucks really .

a bit .

down canoe over .

here.