E51: Supply Chain Shortages, Inflation, DeSantis, Ted Sarandos Netflix Memo, Cancel Culture, Fan Q&A
01:33:25 Share

Yesterday the game went off the chain IT was, if we started off at five hundred and thousand, and then we were like, the these five hundred doors ships are so annoying, then we started to play a thousand and thousand. Then I was one thousand, two thousand, and is one thousand, two thousand, four thousand, then one two four eight, then one, two four eight, sixty, one two four eight, sixteen, thirty, two thousand coming around.

Oh my god, how much the big .

winter and big loser, how much? tell? How much?

About eight hundred. I put that my to eight hundred, nine, seven hundred. And these .

fucking names.

how do you do you both? O， K.

so you can tell that month loss because when you ask them, how do you do? And it's like he goes from the super effusive talking about the game to dislike one work fine. Okay, okay. And how was .

your night good?

Like I said, forty two million dollars for breakfast. IT was fine.

Here go three.

two.

We man.

We open sources to the fans .

and just got crazy.

Y everybody, welcome to another episode of the all in podcast, fifty episodes down and ah we'll definitely get three, four more in before the band brings up with us today. Again, from an disclosed location, David sacks the rain man himself to mathai appetite, the dictator and the queen of kin wah David friedberg. How's everybody doing? And is everybody feeling? How's everybody y's week going?

Really great.

Yours just just great, awesome.

I I feel really good. I I feel super grateful.

Um make .

me start .

market subject a good week. It's been a good week.

I file so much equity .

mity markers.

up four percent freebody. How are you do?

My wife went to the hospital three times this week, all three times thinking he was in labor.

Are you? How did I mean, two, seven meters dialed? We're still waiting meter.

I think we are there too, and we're just waiting any day hour. So we were how we get action on this.

Can we bet who's gonna first or I think .

I think febris the first because it's third. It's only it's alicant third, it's not second.

Yeah yeah. So we can lay odds to the one or you get health.

I'll take the over onder on what day is today. There is the city we're getting induce on the twenty six. It's a validation i'll take you over render on the I take over render on the twenty first that .

you're getting the line。 I set the line twenty first of all, i'm going over. I go over for now. This is for that OK o yeah for what do that acts over under twenty first twenty.

Six .

is expected.

You guys look to .

all behaving .

kids in graduate.

and some of us are a whole barts Younger than you.

Sex, are you snipped? I would. If anybody was snipped, I would guess that would be sex. Are you? Are you snippy? snippy.

Is this the type of vital information you think .

the audience wants to know? Yeah, I didn't. They do. Actually, I think that's yes. I think he's been snipped to math is definitely .

not snipped. You you come over here and inspection.

I don't think, I don't think you can visually understand. It's visually understandable .

freeburg definitely not snapp ed, as proven by his like being pregnant now.

I don't think you say snipper, I think you .

save the sector me then i'm just I think you say snip, snip. I think sex has been snipped. That's actually a good bet.

We could book IT on sex being snip. Okay, listen, A A lot of topics to get to. I think we were trying to get to this topic last week. There's been a supply chain, uh, interruption right now. There's some shortages, obviously, of key components like microchips.

We all know this, according to a car and driver, the top three models impacted by the chip shorts for the ford f series pickup trucks, jeep Cherry Y, S, U S and the chavez equal X S, U S. Basically a lot of the cars uh that uh have advanced striving systems are now removing them. I was looking at getting A N S U V for the winner and I was looking at the cattle.

I escalate and they took self driving out of the twenty twenty two model or the autopilot basically because they can get the chip um and we all know why this is happening, obviously covered uh and then also on top of IT demand. So people are buying second computers, third computers. Places like dell are having an apple or selling a lot of death, hobbs, a lot of laptops um and there is also a labor shortage.

So the labor force obviously here in the united states is much more than IT was. Uh we all know that people are raising salaries to try to get people to come back to work. They're turning off the bonus unemployment, uh, early in some states were here in october.

This is also supposed to be turned off by now. So I guess i'll start with future off in terms of, uh, the markets here. Uh, what do you think is happening? And is this in acute risk or just something that will pass?

Think, uh, well, this is where I think I kind of generally disagree with the market. I think that most people are under the impression that these are short term. Kind of contractions and expansions in that this is just A A thing that needs to get work through the system as we we adjust to oppose covert world babbo.

A I think it's different. And the reason I think it's different is if you just look at a one thing and one thing only, which is that we have a massive labor shortage in america. And there is an incredible step that I saw, which was the average hourly earnings of non manager people in hospitality and travel.

And the abbot salary, the mean salary, was around twenty seven dollars an hour, and it's now thirty three box an hour. And so what that to me says is that we are going through a really sustained period where you cannot get people to do the work that needs to get done. Biden had to call the port of delay and try to get these guys to be open twenty four hours a day.

The president of the united states is calling a local port trying to get IT to stay open. But why can't they stay open? Because you have long sherman. You have all these unionized folks who will expect to get certain level of competition, which they deserve in order to do that work, twenty for seven. But then all of that is gna get put through the system.

And if you still have millions of jobs that needs to get done in order for the economy to function, the only efficient way that that's gonna get resolved is by raising salaries. And those are consistent and persistent. Those things are not just like, oh, you know what I gave yes, I did save fifty bucks in our but so then I that's one thing.

And second, there is people write to labor capital. I just think it's getting more and more expensive to get folks to do work. And then there is the raw materials that you use to make anything.

And everything that I see is that stuff is going bennis. And so I put these two things together and i'm like, i'd think this stuff is here to stay. I'm really kind of a little bit of you know, and I had not worried.

And you you can see in every episode before this, I was always consistently like there is no inflation. You can fade the inflation trade. Now i'm kind of positioning myself to uh paddy myself in the .

situation freeburg. Uh we've seen the pictures uh of the long beach ah and the los Angeles ports. There's just ships out there like I think seventy or eighty is where IT peaked that uh, in july, I don't know have the latest data here of when IT updated.

Um but is there are not a silver lining here that if people are making more money, then we're going to increase the size of middle school and we're going to do increase up promotional site and that IT cuts a double extort. It's create that we increase the medal class, but they're going to want to buy up. So people are now making thirty five bucks an hour and they were making twenty. Now that more dispersed more, now they going to go amazon and buy more stuff and it's going to accelerate. This problem is .

that not the chAllenge is the rate of change. This is what the fed tries to manage. And there's a White house economic advisory committee that's involved in trying to figure out what what's going to happen here because the current estimate is, is going to take at least a year or probably a year to work through the current law jam and the global supply chains. And during that period of time, after points out what's happening is the .

cost for goods is .

climbing because people have to um charge more because there's limited inventory of people are beating up the the value of that inventory as they do that, the businesses um and up needing to get more labor. And so they have to pay more to fire people. They pay more to hire people.

Those people end up demanding more, and the cycle can actually go the wrong direction. Where you have an inflationary Spike that persists. How do you tape that inflation? It's not necessarily great for economic growth if you can produce the stuff and IT can actually cause these run away kind of effect in the dynamic system of supply and demand when you have these these things clogging up the the system for supply. So uh so so IT is a real risk and IT is the biggest that um you know the White house, the economic task force is kind of kind of figure out right now is where's the baLance fly where you can um you know basically try and taper this inflationary effect that's being caused by the log jam and the supply chain without causing economic disruption by raising IT, by raising interest rates. Um and so it's a really uh kind of complicated no second and third derivation formula needs to kind of be resolved and that's why so many these little elements are so important to get right rates by way.

central bankers around the world havers rates in the place that doesn't gone up is europe, E C B and the united states, the federal. So and let's be honest, in europe and the united states we absorb labor and materials from all around the world, right? We are the net importers.

We are the net ultimate buyers of last resort of all of these things. And so if you're seeing inflation in those other you supplied with an economies, they are going to come on. Sure, they are going to hit us in the face. I think Prices are going up.

The other the other free market argument that could be made is that these um these current trends will accelerate a trend towards more automation of uh low cost labor um because IT now will make sense for businesses to invest in the capital, in the capex um in the infrastructure and ultimately for technology companies to build that the tooling uh to support that infrastructure that will automate jobs like working in fast food, like doing local delivery, like doing factory assembly um like moving things across the country and trucks, so self driving trucks um uh the factory automation by a manufacturing additive manufacturing, the printing.

These are all industries that could benefit from the fact that labor now for kind of you know traditionally low income work has gotten so expensive that IT starts to make sense to switch to the technology alternative which historically may have been too expensive but now starts to make economic sense of business. And so there's a number of these automation industries that may significantly benefit and that ends up ultimately being deflationary and the market comes in the baLance. So that's another way to kind of think about the macro on what may play out.

There's a bigger risk of just inflation. I mean, there is also risk of of of stagnation or stagflation because is not just that Prices are going up and worker's wages are going up as to be a good thing, but the goods and services is aren't being produced. So I mean, I know like my own experience.

I A recent ordered a tesla when I got to test up a couple years ago. I got got in two weeks, IT was like almost instant. This time they want me to wait two months since gotten alert has going to take two more months beyond that.

So we have no idea. And if if if you know text didn't get most the money, I don't think until I actually take delivery of the car, right? That's when you make final payment.

So now they can't book that revenue in those earnings. And tea is even the car company is most affected by this know the big um you traditional american auto companies like ford or even more affected. So if companies cannot deliver their products, you that can cause economic recession.

And I think like these are major storm clouds looming on horizon. Now what what is the cause of this? I mean, I think it's it's, it's multi factorial. A lot of things such small said I was one of really highlighted sport issue. There was a great a tweet storm by isa canter earlier in the week where he said the supply chain crisis, a clever brand that makes the seem I throw grand audience forces at work, rather than the unions holding ports for ransom while dozens of ships pile up, working just true shifts with a two, our break in between the country at their mercy. And he goes on to elaborate on that and that is why i'm to .

they're allowed to do that.

But to to mos point, this is why bite and health the need to to get involved so um that the problem is if you read the fine print on the story of bitten announcing that the ports of A L A and long beach will open twenty four hours, which they clearly need you to get the goods to market.

If you read the like the bottom part of the story, everyone's announcing their intention to go twenty four seven but there is no date certain for when that's gna be. It's a negotiation with the union. So from off to your point, they are going up to negotiate with the unions.

You know, initially IT looked like the story was that biden was going to use his way, his his clout with the union to spicy person, take a deal. But I don't think he's really done that. Everyone is announcing their intentions, negotiate well. You know, if the ports are holding the whole country hostage like this, that could cause a recession.

I think that's gonna be going, I think running twenty four seven, they said long to anal or both twenty twenty four seven.

Well, I just posted this article that came out. I mean, like yesterday and IT says he was published a two days ago and I said there was not a date certain for h it's updated on or which is yesterday. And if you read the bottle of the article, IT says they have not determined a day for one twenty four seven Operations will start. You've just merely announced .

their intention to go twenty four. It's not really they they announced that as if I was a done done look .

less is willing to listen, I mean right to the n out to negotiate. But here's a thing, I mean, they're holding the whole country hostage now they're holding the economy hostage. So a certain point, if their demands are unreasonable, as is, I think, proper for the president, united states to step in, say, guys, this is ridiculous.

You have to go back to work. We're going to make you. We're going to help negotiate a deal here.

That's what ragan did with the air traffic rollers. The air traffic rollers union shut down the whole commercial aviation system. Rain god involves that you cannot shut down color this way.

You must go back to work. Yes, exactly. So I think vine is probably going to have to get or the ports.

I guess they're not striking. They're just not doing an extra shift, but he could do you know .

they're doing two shifts s they are doing two shifts, two hours a day. That's like withholding. That's like a partial strike.

Why they're doing .

two two our shifts or .

two our shifts. They can be doing two our ships. To work.

read what's I can or posted. He said that they are working just two shifts with a two hour breaking between.

Okay, but those might be two eight hour shift with a two hour breaking between. I read that.

Read the, the, the tweet here, he says before any changes, uh, this coming week, the long cher routine at the ports involve two shifts ATM to four P M and six P M to three A M um an overnight shift to five hours available, but is up to fifty percent more expensive and rarely used so basically you're talking about yeah it's an eight of four P M shift with a tour break or six P M to three m so because yes so IT is um for that six hour two six hour .

shifts they should be running at like you you on runs the test of factors when they're building in which is twenty four hours a day.

overlapping shift there over time. But they can the unions can hold the whole country hostage and look if unless bion steps to solve this, we will have a recession.

So IT oh, we think that this could be a recession. I think it's bigger .

than just the ports. I don't think reopening the ports is, is the entirety of IT. I think there's a lot of things going on.

I mean, jack, out to a point you've made, we had four million people drop out the labor force last month. I mean, that was unbelievable. So yeah, the unemployment rate looks great, but the number of people actually going to work is significantly lower.

I mean, that was a huge shock to all the economy. Seeing that many people drop out is still too many people who essentially are being paid not to work in one form or another. And that is hurting the economy. You also have this issue in in china, which is very interesting.

This was, I think, covered in the york times about how dependent chinese factories are on coal and which you know about thing obviously that's not a clean energy source but because of restrictions on coal, it's actually started to impact manufacture turing over there. We can debate where that's a good thing or bad thing, but it's contributing to the effect um I suspect that china's woken up to this and they will they're not going to shut down their economy because of concerns by clean energy. So I assume this a very temporary decision.

Um and then of course, you have the whole issue of covert restrictions. I mean, there are a lot of international COVID researches was just in the us. That where they were shutting down factories or creating a lot of rules that gotten the way of keeping factories open.

Um they were doing this internationally. And there is a lot of regulations around sea faring as well because of covered restrictions. So you have this pilot P I would say of of regulations, ultimately, I say with cover as the origin that have now caused this supply ing crisis. And unless I get fixed, IT could absolutely cause a one thousand nine hundred seven souls deflation type recession next year.

After you buy that, you think we could have a this combination of people refusing to go to work or just opting out and saying, like, even if you buy me thirty five before I was not interested, I have enough back to work.

I actually think that's exactly what IT is there was a really interesting um but that I saw on twitter hopefully make you can find IT that was some kids that basically said you i'm growing up in IT later and there is a bunch of kids that I used to run with you know who would otherwise be in the streets, right pausing all kinds of trouble and these kids are now at home by expanding N F. And like you know posting on tiktok or whatever.

This is a completely different reimagining of like labor and time spent. And and and that's just a very small example. And so that maybe touches retail or maybe touches you know quick service restaurants, but there's all these different things were now that at the end of this pandemic, people are making very different decisions about their time and how to spend their money.

And again, i'll tell you again, there is a lot of people. You got to remember how many people united states have died or are dealing now with some reasonably important health issues at the back end of korona virus. Half a million people, a million people.

I want you to keep in mind what I told you guys before. There are seventy seven, zero trillion dollars that has they get transfer down from all these baby bombers, down to these people on their twenty thirties and forties. And don't think for a second that they're not making different optimization decisions around percent wealth.

So I just think inflation is here. I think the labor shortage is going to get worse, not Better. I think we're going, going to have to pay people more to get out of IT.

I think Prices are going up, input costs are going up, energy costs are going up. So this is IT. And I know I think I think that probably the fat in the E C. Beard really raising this time next year, they're probably in a really, really tighter .

posture or eating free bird.

We we should also remember that there are going to be some responses from the .

fiber glassing test stocks in the bucking toilet. Why no point of point? Because point, no, no, no point over for no cash flow growth. stop. Yeah.

rising. Everyone's going to to start buying yy poops.

Nobody wants IT yy poops.

Let's explain this to the audience. Why free berg, why I am rates go up.

you'll see the dividend yields will go up, which means start Prices go down because people will expect a higher return. Because if I can treasury bonds and make a few points of return on my money and i'm going to have to buy a stock i'm going to want to i'm going to demand a few more points of dividend yield on that stock. And so so so the Price technique, you know the the Price for stocks will typically go down to match the field that you're gonna get from these .

more growth free investment. To be more precise, a stock is either, uh, note about cash today or effectively a promise you note about cash in the future. Thing with text taxis, we tell everybody the same thing.

Your money he is going to come thirty years from now because we're going to be a monopoly by then. And every dollar that I have today, i'm in a reinvest into R N D. And engineering.

And in in an environment where interest strates or zero, you're happy to do IT because you're like, well, great, these guys are investing that way Better rates in zero, which is what I get from, you know, my bank. And so I want facebook and google and amazon and all these startups to be putting all the money in the ground on. By the hand, when interest strates start going up, they say, no, hold on a second, I need more money up front, less money in the future because the future becomes more uncertain.

And that's the pic trade off for tech companies where they get really pumped. okay. Well, is there .

a number? But there's a class of ted companies, right, like amazon, sorry, like microsoft, oracle, google, where you are actually seeing an apple, you're getting dividends and are getting shared by backs where the cash is coming out of the business. And those are the mature businesses that also still happen to have growth attached to them.

And I don't see how portfolios are going to shed those assets. Um you're onna shed. The more speculative hey, you know we're not yet at a point of maturity were still twenty, thirty, whatever yeah the guys that are investing and there's no kind of line aside to true catch.

Well, coming back to the shareholders, look at at the end of the day, one of the point I was trying to make earlier was that um there is going to be a response, right? So we've seen remember when the panama kind of set and everyone started ordering from home, amazon rushed out and higher one hundred thousand local delivery drivers. They bought these trucks and they built their own supply and infrastructure for last mile delivery to get products to people's homes.

And we're now seeing on the other side, walmart, home, deepo, target and other big retailers integrating their supply chain to get product into stores. And so there starting to buy truck, hire e people, pay them significant you know wages to be drivers on staff for them rather than contract into these third parties that are saying, oh, we don't have any venti, we don't have any crocks. We don't have any drivers.

We can do anything for you now and so the response is, think about that your product company, your tesla, tesla just not did this massive deal um in cal adia to source you know some mineral that they need to make batteries or to make their their cars. That can remember exactly. IT increasingly gone to see the businesses that have a baLance sheet step up and actually start to integrate their .

supply chains rather than have this .

disperate set of service providers, each of which is only kind of is all typically Operating at max capacity. And then they can kind of respond to these sorts of jolts to the system. And so we're going to see a lot of investment, I think, by businesses that make product or deliver product to the consumer as they trying to integrate the supply chain problem themselves.

And that may take some of the strain of the system and some of the inflationary risk of the equation we will see over the next couple of quarters. But certainly in the last earning report, I saw some statistics, a very large percentage of earnings reports spoke directly of how supply change disruption affecting the forecasts for the business ability for for the business to meet their forecasts goals. And that's just turning everyone.

okay. So I going to .

have to do something about IT if the resource to do IT.

right, right? So sex, though, there are some server lintons here. Companies become more resilient, uh, they become more automated. They build, uh, full stack. They build their own factories. Were seeing, uh, you know how the taiwan I semi icon ductor company is doing a seven billion dollar project to build a new factory in japan funded by the japanese government. So we're seeing a lot of done redundancy and we're also seeing the middle class grow.

If people are making thirty five box an hour, forty box an hour and they're getting healthy care they're starting to have, uh, over time and and other concessions being made that builds middle class. That sounds like we're solving some problems, uh, as well as you know dealing with this. I I guess what you call .

and inflation is a good thing. People think it's it's like a really bad, terrible thing. There are certain kinds of inflation that are really productive.

We we have had to find a way to fight the bad parts of technology. technology. E, E is great. Nine, near nine or the ten things, it's amazing.

Efficiency, you know, uh all these great characteristics that he gives you, but one crappy extraordinary of technology that is that is deflationary. You can do more with less. And that's fundamentally not great for earnings. It's not great for labor participation is not great for all these things that people you know are really upset about today.

So for the individual getting nothing, I actually think it's kind of like IT actually baLanced out the natural place of of technology, which is like you have the natural ability to just actually have cheap er faster, Better, this inherent efficiency, that building up on one side of the letter. But then what's greatest on the other side of the letter, you actually have no labor being able to baLance IT out. And I think that that's a really good thing because they can demand more to do the rest of the work that's not covered by tech.

What are your thoughts about this expanding middle class? Isn't IT a great thing that, you know, people are saying i'll stay home instead of making well box and hits an unfair wage is not a livable wage. And then all these companies are saying, you know what? okay? Well, they thought so quick.

The big companies, they went to eighteen to thirty five dollars an hour instantly. They always had the money to pay more. They just didn't need .

to in increasing wages in real terms is a good thing. I think you have to ask why the wages are going up. Is IT going up because of increased projectile ity, which is a good thing? Or is IT going up because of inflation? Is going up in a is going up because of inflation, then the wage gains are someone to lusty because all the products that consumers want to buyer also going up in Price.

All we've done is sort of is uh, devalue the dollar. So we have to we don't know yet whether these um what we do know that inflations actually very high. We don't know exactly if these a wage gains are are permanent or just a function of that.

Um but let's go back to inflation point for a second. I think this is actually really important where that looks mean like a five point one percent inflation rate is just about the highest since the late seventies, early eighties. Now we have this threat of the supply chain crisis. This is, this is we have .

a supply chain crisis. Yeah, people can't sell cars. This is a rescue for stalled tion.

To point out that quite now, I think there's an assumption that if inflation persists, the feed will simply just fight. It'll increase intestate somewhat in no country l IT. But I actually think that the death of of action that the fact can take, you might be more constrained than people think I just want to flag.

So one of the primary source I used for the the national dead is this website, fred, a dot c Lewis fed dot org, a good website that has a lot of charts um by a branch of the of the fed. So they have this chart. We've seen that federal debt as a percentage GDP.

Is that sort of all time peace time highs? You know, we're now we we were at one hundred percent for a few years. And now because a coffee, we just rock at IT up over one hundred, twenty percent, over one hundred and forty percent.

Now the argument by mostly liberal economist that the debt didn't matter was because the debt service remained very low on the debt. So we had a huge increase in debt because interest rates were so low, the death service was still very, very small. And I think you they have a good piece on this website about this as well that all just post here in the notes.

But um I think I don't know if you guys remember back to um apart, we did in may where we talked about stanly drink milk, came out swing against the fed and he warned about this very situation. I just want to like I want to just read this this article that we covered back. I think IT may IT feels like an eternity ago.

But remember when we just talk about this, what drug, Miller warned, is that if yields on the ten year treasury rise the projected level of four or nine percent, which is simply the historical average, the government spending will be close to thirty percent of GDP each year, simply paying back interest expense compared to two percent last year, unless IT monitise es, the debt, which experts think is unlikely, and drug millions would have horrible impacted to us dollar. So in other words, we now have this enormous dead. The only reason why debt service payments aren't crowding out the entire federal budget is because you've had interest strates at zero, have Normal lows, zero s basically, yes. So how exactly is the fed going to a fight inflation? If they jack up interest rates to where they should be, say four, four, nine percent, then the entire federal budget will be going to check in against themselves.

right? It's it's like you're the bank and taking the loan at the same time. This is like somebody who gets a variable interest mortgage and they get five, ten years into their mortgage and then of a sudden they go from interest only in some low interest, right? And then they have to pay market rate and they realize they can afford the whole we might not be able to afford the budget. We're putting authors what you're saying sex.

Well, i'm saying the family may not have the tools all the tools they want to fight inflation if IT comes back or I mean, it's going to be politically very unpopular. I mean, can you imagine the pressure the feed will be under not to raise rates if that means that all of these directionally programs, basically, if we cut that we have an austerity mode in the federal budget, how are going to pay for all this debt service?

yeah. And then the first thing you think about is, hey, maybe we should cut a military spending since it's the largest at the time when china is doing studies in and around taiwan in the south china sea. And we've got, you know six you know navy doing coordinated a selling me, which I think is A A Jason issue here hir historical .

great powers at one of me. Great don't oh, over one hundred percent of the economy, uh, especially you know when a lot of is held by a foreign powers. I mean, that is a situation that makes us fragile, not anti fragile, right? Because if we hit a crisis, if there is, you know, some unforeseen military conflict, what what?

Glass y breakdown, case emergency, we already spent, we ready at. We're in peace time and we have more time levels of debt. And now inflation is making a return and the fed is going to make some really tough choices about whether the control inflation and essentially impose austerity on the on government spending or whether they monitise ed the dead, which will lead to a runaway appreciation of the dollar. Neither one of those things is a good situation.

We thirty, well, they can't.

But but again, if debt service rises to thirty percent of the federal budget, where's anybody going to come from?

You have to raise taxes and cut.

which is why, and I think this is joe mentioned point. And you know you've been listened to joe mention talk about the current reconciliation bill. He says, look, three point five trillion doesn't make sense.

We don't know what what situation are going to come front in the future. We don't know what crises are coming. We're going to reduce our ability to tackle all those future problems by overspending. Right now. That's been geo mansion's argument. And looking at this risk of staff lation in the forms of the supply chain shortage and this five point one person interest street number, you'd have to say that if we want to preserve any flexibility next year to raise interest rates, you really, really careful about how much that you incur.

Now you great.

yeah. Look, when drug said that the ten year break even was sort of, you know, at a five year high at the time. Um go back there now.

Um OK I am just going I said this on C N, B. C also said again, um I think it's coming. Um I don't think it's a short term blood and I think that we are in a period that will resemble the late seventies. Um and I think that you know you kind of want to be risk off and not own risk assets. Um and by the way, IT is hard, okay, because like we are all all of us of four of us, both risk all were both was gone and all we honor risk assets that are you know it's one thing to say let's take risk, but you could take risk in like lower of all things. This is this is like taking risk in the most risky thing yeah what we all do and at a time when .

people have run up evaluations of private market companies to a level that just nobody can understand.

I mean, look, I think you've got a year to eighteen months to kind of clean this stuff up. Meaning like as market participants, we can you we can shock and drive and get everything in a decent place. But it's coming um and I hope i'm wrong, but um I think we'll look back on this and we'll say we said IT probably eight to twelve months before IT really reared the duck ahead. But it's coming uh.

freebody. Any thoughts on what's happening in taiwan and what, uh, you know, even a modest conflict there would do to markets given how to saxes point? This is the opposite of anti fragile.

We are in like full, fragile ity here. I mean, this is like, you know, a trade falling champagne glasses on a boat and rough seas at any point we could trip. And everything comes crashing down, as I feel like that to you prey barger. Do you feel like we're gonna able to navigate this?

I mean, not. I don't know about time won, but I think we're just going to keep in influence our way out of this mess remembred like that, that we did last year, and it's what we will do again this year. The the the the biggest um losers and equation already.

Um the middle class ah because you know middle class actually owned assets that are not going to be worth less. Um folks you are not in the whole class that are below middle class don't on asset so doesn't really affect them. They just make higher wages but stuff costs more so they'll be fine. And then, you know wealthy individuals will end up getting tax away, uh, to fund some of this. And I think that's the inevitable kind of way that the equation baLances.

right? I mean, think think about how much tax rates s are about to go right now in this reconciliation, but we haven't gotten to like any of these crises, by the way, we don't know for sure if we're going to happen. I think. We could describe these things, storm clouds right now that are very much on the horizon.

the two storm clouds.

more stories converging, right? And if they do materialized in the way that we're talking about, what weapons to we have left in order to fight them, what weapons of fiscal also, what weapons of popolo, we're ready going to have tax the all time high? Yes, we're going to have taxes.

money print and we're going to play ourselves. We're going to go to the central bank. It's what you said we're going to monetize .

or that and that is that is something remember, the top um marginal tax rate was what? Seventy eighty percent in the sixties and seventies. I mean, you know that's likely where we're going .

to go back there. Well, I think we're ready going to read back .

there as a result of the reconciliation .

broken the glass in case emergency.

You're you're going to see some of these wealth taxes get chased down. You're onna see the top marginal tax way of seventy, eighty percent, you know. I mean, I think that's the way the equation value is not like the world can end. We're going to solve IT by taking assets away from some.

and .

we're going to .

inflate all .

assets like that .

sounds pretty bad.

Yeah yeah. I mean, affect most people even though they don't think IT will because it's gonna fect the quality of our conney.

I'm just trying to predict what is onna happen sex? I'm not saying this is the solution to our problem. I think the solution to our problem is technology. Know the question is.

does that come to market fast more about that?

I I feel like we need the deflationary set of technologies that can like mitigate all of these effects, right, software automation, self driving trucks, things that take the labor force because people don't want to work low income jobs. That and you know, now that there's a world market now in america, now that there's a world where people don't have where people have other options because other job have been created because we pump so much money into these other industries, we're seeing people migrate away from low income jobs like driving a truck for ten dollars in our or working at mcDonald three dollars an hour. And so to fill that gap and avoid the economic collapse that will occur in those sectors of the economy, you need to automate and you need to find solutions that can replace the labor with some alternative technology solution that actually allows the product to be fulfill to the consumers that demand IT. Or you're going to see rates go up like you're going to be paying twelve dollars for hamburger because you going to have to .

pay one twenty five dollars an easy or trouth or sexy, you can take IT. Um sure, you're both going to have an opinion here. Um we've been battling over immigration and and no bc even seems to understand how many people are coming into the country or under what and should we not tie the number of jobs available you know over the trAiling x number of months, years, quarters to how many people bringing to the country and couldn't solve this by allowing five million people, a million people, whatever is per year, a half million people in to take those low income jobs and utilize that a group of people to, you know I think get businesses back on track.

I think it's too convenient to say that these are all low income jobs. I don't think that's necessarily true. Um and I think that IT IT then start to introduce a whole bunch of other constraints to the system.

These are folks that they need, health care user folks that need, childcare user folks that need you know that they are also um attacks on resources as well, right? We are all tax on the natural resources and the infrastructure of our country. And so no, I don't think that that's the solution necessarily to that specific problem.

But what if the jobs that were people are coming in, we have enough people here to do the work we do. What we don't have is a market clearing Price for that work to get. And so what i'm about just try to say is I think that the simpler and more obvious solution is to raise salaries until you get people to fill these jobs.

And I think that is happening. And so I do think that over the next year, two or three, you're going to see you know labor rates basically go back up and employment rates go back down, and salaries go back up and inflation go back up, all of these things you gonna happen together. That's the solution. I think immigration is is a, is a solution to a completely different problem, which is, which is that we're not competitive like I, I, you try about bringing an elite.

highly educated, technical people.

I, I, I really think that running a country should really be like running a sports team, you know, and recruit the best talent. And you should really be recruiting the best talent. You should be looking a game film.

You should be coming up with place. You should be running in testing those place. You know you should have different place that you run in the first quarter verse, the fourth quarter, different place when you're on the goal line, you know.

And and I think that like when you look at professional sports, one thing is that they don't see color, gender, sexual orientation. They see ability to be performance statistics, attack forms and statistical excEllent yeah. And then they go seek statistical excEllence. And and and if you transit to country, my simple rule on immigration is every year there's a draft and amErica is the free place. Every free agent are the anes.

Yeah, with the warriors.

I fuck the we're like the warriors. These are trash is just going to has won the most for the new england patriots or the chicago balls where, you know, we are the team that everybody would want to play for. It's up to us to have a good G. M. And a good president of the team and a good front office that just picks off all these smart.

This should be, I think, your great point here to work. As you're saying, let's take the emotion out of this immigration and let's make IT a pointer stem, which, by the way, the point page system is what australia, new zealand, the U. K. Canada all do. And americans don't even know what the point of system is, sex, what are we reviews? Um as somebody who i've heard leads a little bit to the right on opening up immigration or maybe sweeping all this amazing talent globally who have the highest statistics go.

I like chaos sports analogy. We want to get the biggest stars from all over the world come to the U. S. I know, I think that makes sense. I think you know this this so called immigration issue get so confused with so many different things.

I mean, first, all there is immigration, and then there is barter security, right? And immigration or just having a border period. And so many people think that if you get pro immigration, you basically can have a border. I mean, that makes no sense. Um you know we need to have a border and we need to have actual like I have an actual immigration policy should just get be like, okay, you make IT across I like president .

or if your guy run, the scientist becomes what IT is what will you tell ron what you're I .

like what you're saying with the point system having A B skills based I mean that makes .

some republicans do that. They've been so emotionally tied to this issue because of truck. Can they actually, you know, tie themselves to something performance based and would be not emotional about IT. Can they change their position?

I think trump actually did endorse like a more skills based immigration system. I think that I don't know that republicans .

are the ones motion.

People mean, I think is insane. The people who don't think need a border. I mean, you clearly you have to have a border, yes.

And even obama came out recently made a statement that you have to have a border because the, the, the progressive left has gone so far. It's almost like they wanted to be whatever trump was doing. They want to do the opposite of like pull the one and eighty.

And so it's almost like the by administration policy became to stop doing whatever IT was a trump's doing. Couldn't finishing the world. I don't I don't really understand why that was like such a problem.

Building a world also seem like ridiculous.

We could just put one piece. It's one piece the solution. But to stop amid .

construction, let me a question broke this your hosting uh uh a fun rather for descanted a you got a little bit blow back from that um from the walke uh you know in the self checco crab. But in terms of your influence with somebody like that, do you think you can actually influence them to get wrong, to sentence, to listen to this episode and maybe talk about the point, place, system and change the framing of that? You think you have enough influence to do that?

I don't know. I don't know exactly what this position and immigration is that that's not like the set of issues that um that I respect him for me in the reason why I wanted support the scientist is that he was the first governor to end these insane lockdowns and um I mean this is back in this should have been obvious ous everybody by may of twenty twenty that the lockdowns didn't work and he was the first one to to roll them back and and florida is very well, especially considering that they have so many old people in .

florida.

So you know on the halt nett, what I have done everything exactly or is he distinction himself in drunk?

I think honest, I think that like point of view is coming from the point of view of somebody who's not in the republican party. He doesn't have to deal with the dynamics of winning support in the republican party.

yes. So you you have to basically told the line with trump to get the nomination.

I I don't see this toying the line. I just think, look, I think he's his own person. He's the governor florida. He's setting policy over there. He can be supported or not based on what he's doing in florida. I think like trump is the issue that everybody in the other side we wanna talk about, but I don't think is relevant .

to what he's doing. This cover, I don't think .

republic, civil war, but there definitely is some conflict. And yeah I mean, I hope IT resolves in a look, I think elections are always about the future. I don't think people want to relitigate the past. And I think that and I think that the republican party be wise. I think to find uh, a candidate of the future are not try to rehash or relitigate the past um another good reason for me to support the santis I think he is a future looking.

Future al orient in canada um I do think that I look i'll say IT the stuff I hear trump doing now in these speeches where he's relitigating what happened last year um and attacking other republicans like mcconnell because he does because they failed his personal loyalty test. It's a little bit like what he did Frankly in georgia with the run offs weah, he showed so much chaos that the republicans lost a sea the produced that they had won on election night and they had that run off and you have to say that a huge part of the reason for that was the was trump a attacking raffles burger and and all the the George gop, because he thought they were inferior, loved. And then here you get the whole the tape come out of, can you to find eleven thousand votes?

I mean, I think voters in georgia punished the republican party for that by by giving that seats to the democrats. That is the that that margin created the democratic majority, which will now give us probably an incremental forty six trillion of spending and tax increases that we were others SE have had. So I do think these elections are very important, and they would be of the republicans.

Look, are not, are not. Like one of these is never trumper people. I'm just obsess with period. I just think that republicans need to run a future looking canada, not a backwards looking canada. And twenty and twenty four and I think the santis could be that guy. It's very, very early to say when the first thing he has to do is run for governor h for reelection in um which I think is next years twenty twenty two. So I will support them for that.

Anybody read the the t surrenders memo?

Yeah, this is great. We should definitely jump into this. We talked about the chapel performance, sex and free. My god, what nerd you have? Oh my god, you guys are culturally .

bankrupt guys doing this week .

like fucking baby.

I haven't wash IT yeah, but I don't need .

to wash you to know I support IT yeah. He does not have to click on the leg. This is almost .

nothing chapel could say to make me want to cancel him. I mean, when I ve a lot, I love shaped, so I think I understand that of what he was doing, but I do need to see that still. I looked that he should not be canceled. Ridiculous.

I don't think he is .

going to survive.

He hears was beyond this. Let me read you from IT so everybody knows that the name the special he did was the closer IT was released on october fifth. A lot of outcry from glad and uh adversity groups and actually people inside of a netflix.

There's been some resignations. There have been some people who contribute content channel lix who are now saying they're not work at the company. And really interesting tester and to sent a memo to the entire company on monday. And he's this is the second when he sent and he says, we know that a number of you have been left angry, disappointed and hurt by our decision to put dave chapels latest special on netflix.

Very interesting opening uh, he he's addressing their feelings just this is a master class in a memo because in the first part he just addresses, I understand you feel that way with the closer we understand that the concern is not about offensive to some content but titles which could increase real world ARM. So now he's framing their argument as it's not cause it's sufficient, it's because of real world ARM. You've brought this up before sacks the real world ARM concept with an apple and um antonio.

While some employees disagree, we have a strong belief that content on screen does not directly translate world world ARM. It's not exactly true. Uh, we get into that.

The strongest evidence to support this is that violence on screen has grown hugely over the last thirty years, especially with first party shooter games. And yet violent crime has fAllen significant in many countries uh, and so he goes above and beyond just talking about offensive material. Uh, adult can watch violence, assault and abuse or enjoy shocking stand up comedy without IT causing them to harm.

Other stand up comedians often expose issues that are uncomfortable because they are, by nature, is highly provocative. As the leadership team, we do not believe that the closer is intended to inside hared or violence against anyone poor, a sensitive content guidelines. So basically he says, you know, if you don't like to change the channel, if you're a customer, you can cancel your description, or if you work here and you don't like IT, you don't need to work here. But is this the end of cancel culture? This, combined with brand and strong positioning sexes .

is I don't I don't think is the end of IT um for the simple reason IT, let's assume that this comic I had not signed sixty million dollar or deal with netflix. Let's say he had signed a sixty thousand dollars, okay, or six nine year, whatever and and he didn't have the legions of fans that the dave shapu had. Do you think that surrenders are making the same decision?

I mean, I think that special by A A nefer x comedy by dave smith, we'll script the rugged right now that would never see the light of day. I think the same thing was true was a rogan to spotify, right? I mean uh specialized made a sixty million thousand years with rogan um the eloy e hundred million the employees all protested and spotify to all for rogan, but they had every economic incentive to do so. I don't completely trust these companies that if I wasn't massively in their bombing interest, that they would have stood up for free speech. I suspect that if I think we are in the emails.

stick and stones is one of the most watch you know piece of a content we had. And this the closer was like top four five in america, uh, over like the last few weeks. So there is a huge economic incentive and and read hastings said the same thing when he post the other COO CEO into a group forum, which said, listen, our job is to please our customers and all this data says is that we've pleased our customer right.

And I think .

in the case and I .

putting you dying.

we need to make the .

content we want to make think that so rare to get a memo like, uh surrender o's route where he's defending artistic freedom or freedom speech will have you admitted so rare to ever see that that I don't want to um gain say IT too much but I also do believe that this sort of special treatment is really reserved for the for the artist that creators like a chapel, like a rogan, they are basically too big to cancel.

I mean, these companies are spent too much money on their programs to disseminate ly cancel them. They also, again, like I said, have legions of fans who would rise up in protest if they were cancelled. But I don't think, but I don't think these companies make the same decision for the, the, the medal, the middle vel creator and in a sense, rogan and chapelle, their post economic right. I mean, they ve made so much money that they're free to do what they want, and they've got a big enough audience to protect themselves from these companies. But is the little creator who still on their way up, who could never take the kinds of creative risks the chapel is taking or that road?

Well, they can take IT. They just can't do IT on netflix. But I I, I the tone of this to me, sound sounded like a manifesto. And uh, the end of the discussion from dad, like we're doing this, if you don't like to get off the ship, but this is the way the ship is going, that's the way I read IT.

And I think spotify did a similar thing with um joe rogan to your point, which was hate less than there are some content out there from like alex Jones or some people who are just conspiracy theory. They took down those episodes. Jo, I don't care.

I paid um but yeah I just feel to me like this is a tipping point when you put brian armstrong, j rogan and SHE peled together that corporations are going to say, you know the mob is fine. You can have your opinion, but your opinion stops where we have to run a business. Freeburg ity authors.

I think I think that flex as a appreciation for artistry, certainly evident by the money they're spent on the product they put out. And I think good artist and good artistry is um uh you know can be provocative. It's designed to make you change your opinion, look at things differently, think about things differently and be chAllenged in the norms of you know you're everyday life and I think that's um that's important in art in all forms um and that means seeing and being exposed two and um being engaged by things that you don't Normally get exposed to and engaged by. And I think that's what chapels is fantastic and I think that's what other great art is great at.

And um and I think that as long as netflix x maintains that, he thought that artistry does that and the good thing is people appreciate IT and they uh they appreciate that that form and appreciate being chAllenged in that way. And I think as a result, the market will as retains E S identified, continually demanded. And as much as some people might be offended, it's the fact that IT is offensive that I think makes IT good um so and and I think .

that and I hope you're write about what this means. I mean, be maybe really clear. I mean, I hope IT goes down exactly way that you're saying because that that is what I want to believe is happening.

I'm a little bit skeptical that this is a little bit more of a bottom line motive. They got so much money at stake, they can afford a cancell ship. Pl, but I hope you're right that I hope you're right that is a statement of principal and they will apply that principle to lesser known artists. You can protect themselves as much. Um and you know hopefully this is kind of like, you know what to reminds me of is the john Stuart um lathe woon lab leak moment where you had john's store go on a cobell show and he all the sudden he made IT OK to talk about the laboring theory that was like you couldn't talk about IT .

before we crack the .

over ten windows yes exactly. And so hopefully shaphan will do that for this like world cancellation mob is to finally get everybody to realize, oh, like we can .

stand up to this tramp is the over twin window a on a go ford basis? Do you see IT closing more, staying where IT is or perhaps even opening?

There's um there's a really great philosophy. This is this is my maybe my one and only. Grand tribute to beautiful but he he is um it's a huge supporter of the philosopher named NASA and the uh I agree with a lot of uh a lot of that uh A A lot of renewal ards philosophe.

Basically it's called memetic theory and the idea is you're born without preferences and then you can just copy what's around you. And so what the other person wants is what you want. And that's what ultimately leads to a lot of conflict. And the only way to resolve conflict is is with a huge grand sacrifice of some kind okay um and if you think about IT here, if you're going to really put you know cancel culture, if you're gonna kill IT, there needs to be some just massive escalation in conflict around this idea that allows us to resolve IT in one way or the other, in one direction or the other and I don't think this is IT.

I think it's not big enough quite honestly, I think it's a little bit sort of like, you know these folks like us that love comedy um and we're willing to keep IT in a very strict box, which is let people say what they're going to say, be shock with IT and they take IT on to yourself and don't and go and reflected into the world. It's entertainment and you can you know it's like I choose not to watch um violent stuff because I don't like IT I find IT I find IT very offensive or um you know I don't play first person shooters. I find IT really unsettlement you know grand def daughter I found that really outrageous um and other people will feel like that about shape out.

My whole thing is we should all be allowed to make those judgements because I think we're all all still pretty rational people at the end of the day and do the right thing in the Normal world. But this isn't the thing that's going to get this uh issue to be resolved. So I don't know how IT comes.

There needs to be some huge scale tion around this thing. I suspect what happens is IT actually just dissipate and goes away. And the reason is because everybody who's much on within us has such a huge digital for quantite theyve created with their old life, there is so much shit that's out there, god, yes, that they just have no choice but to let everybody else off the hook. We, we are a very different situation because we were doing some bucket shady stuff, always on the downside, always hidden.

Wow, he is there.

That's however, what you larger, you would roll deep and you would just, you would pretend you would not, you know. And now the culture is very different. And I think with that comes a lot of acceptance.

Every, you know, every kid at some point mayor may not be on tinder, bumble ria, you know, grinder, whatever. So there's gonna a body of that content that's up. Every kid will have said something crazy, you know, on tiktok and all of this stuff will be there.

And so you have a choice, which is if you're going to hold me accountable, i'm going to hold you accountable. So it's mutual assured destruction. And I think that's what causes cancel culture to go away in time is the last vestige of very guilty people of our generation.

What do you think freeburg is the over in window opening.

closing or about the city of thing is right? Um I think i've referred to this book called the light of other days before when we talk I ticks all right um the book is like all about this notion of all information is available, everyone everywhere and societal norms completely change.

People no longer find things the fancy than they no longer and and everyone basically shifts to a mode of much more kind of open dialogue because you know, keeping things behind closed doors and then positioning one person against the other completely changes when you can see everyone's cards all the time. Um and so I think yeah generally we're heat that way. I don't think we're going to get information wants to be free.

More information is being generated by each of us all the time. I don't think that we're headed in the opposite direction and kind of back to a Victorian era. I think we're gone to the other way. So there's gonna books and starts um uh that that all kind of you know be setback ks on that general trajectory. Um so yeah, I do think it's it's it's a moment you know it's a moment in time right now um where this is happening I mean sex.

You look at the two examples we've discussed, brian, i'm strong and a coin base that was about essentially black lives matters and talking about social justice network and this one is about trans uh and trans rights and essentially I don't say poking fun at or you know uh discussing uh basic says in IT that he's team term if you were to take two organizations that standing up again and would be the most chAllenging and difficult. I think those are the top two. No.

I guess so mean.

that's why I think this is the this is the most telling is that you have two different organza saying, hey, were going to put a foot down just for background. Netflix had a very strange um I didn't see the actual films so I won't make judgment on IT uh but IT was a very strange uh trailer for a film called cuties which was really over sexualized Young girls like eight, nine, ten year old girls and they didn't take IT down um in the united states uh net lex but they did say that was in france who was in france IT was a french movie yeah and they have different view of kids and sexuality and yeah uh I think people found IT a little dark uh here in new states but they they survive that one as well um or the weather that one as well. So I think where people are finding is if you put your foot down a certain point.

I think what the right then these guys have realized that if we have this very specific message around artistic freedom, and we never violated, because that's one of those things where if you take that hill, you have to be there forever, right? You can't have abstractions around that idea.

But by doing that, they basically dominate the content production game in hollywood, which then allows them to fuel the most content at the cheapest average Price, which then makes turn less than customer acquisition higher. And they're already the largest media company in the world and they're only going na get bigger. They're a never accessed to hundred millions of trappers.

You're gonna a get to a billions describers. It's just inevitable. And so for them, I do think it's a very rational business position to take, which is that I have to appeal to a billion people over the next two.

seven year. You don't have to watch everything on netho x. You don't .

have to listen to netty is a fuss and they spend minutes improve the U. S. Actually finds something, my god.

it's so bad, you know, he he basically surrender. Made the point that along with travell show, they're funding a tn of content by people of color problem. More than anybody, entrance people is a big focus on what are doing at netflix. And you essentially, to sexus point, more speech is Better than less. All right, do we want to go to the F.

D, A, K tether? What you want? You do your reverse Victory that because, after all, your show me .

IT was .

exit is not A A fuci d on please come saying that apparently the cftc went on, did the work and is actually now refuting what you thought was the case. So what you just .

how I read of the quote from at least during first twenty sixteen, february twenty thousand, twenty thousand, tether misrepresented to customers and the market that tethers maintains sufficient U. S. Dollar reserves to back every usdt in circulation with the a equivalent amount of corresponding fios currency held by tethers and safety deposit toler bank accounts are, in other words, they told everybody they were one for one.

They were not. They lie to the public OK. That's why they're getting a forty minute of that's why they're banned from new york and that's why they're banned from trading in canada. I and they're supposedly uh, department of justice. Um these guys are shade S F, A shade .

an economic interest in tether.

Encrypt u he does. No, no.

I can anyone have an economic interest there?

All IT one for one .

topic dollars or what? We need an d IT to establish IT.

They wouldn't all that they'll do in a test station. And when they did, they're a test station. All they have to do to show a document that says there is money in account. They don't. You have to show how long that's been in the x certainly.

this certainly feels like a security to me. And I would think this, you see, should get volt.

you stable points are the number one thing on games iller and the S, C, C. Mind, right?

Make a claim of .

the secured interest in .

something.

Thank account you added IT.

You're done. It's a technical zed dollar. That said, this is not actually nine. Insurance security is basically is a deter .

represent of the bank of somewhere.

But my point is there are complate security and then there are security that aren't complicated. This is definitely the least of that.

This company only has up to their own attestations like six percent, three to six percent in cash a bank account and the rest is in highly volatile corporate uh, paper.

Here's the the point that I was trying to make you in the group chat a one a company who's got billions and billions and billions of dollars of some stable coin or something that you think is zero. Okay, it's a multi multibillion dollar market.

Tens of billion.

Oh sorry, ten. They have seventy billion .

in other and and and could .

you imagine if they like like us to say there were seventy billion of tether and like, you know, one billion of security, that would be a fraud of garden to and proportions. We will be talking we.

if they sign the money out for .

their own use. On talking about what I found a jin is your claims make IT seem like berny made of on level corruption. Crazy is, hold on.

And the fine was forty two million, which is like the bucks and cares. Forty two million there. And there was between them and another firm.

So I did. The C, F, T, C completely got the fine wrong, and they missed the zero or two zeroes. Or this was not nearly as big as you thought.

That was the shot, shot. Got excited about some, but .

I .

was.

The best case .

scenario for making sense of jack house points, which is, is possible that teller, the company buying teller, has all the money. They're just not chosen to keep IT in dollar reserves. And so they put IT in corporate bonds in the whole mismatch of different things to get the flow to the float to make more money.

I don't my guess is that tetter is solved. I don't think it's a lack solvable. But uh, but I person would feel Better about any stable coin if there was one hundred percent dollar back.

I think that should be, which is what Jerry Miller doing at U. S, D, C. And circle I had bought this week. I hope they ought to get lab.

Uh, I P, uh, what I mean the the issue here is they also come mingled funds, which is what got for told in trouble. The users accounts with their money in IT was mixed with the Operating capital. So they were using the deposits to Operate the business, which is the biggest no, no.

Uh, they were so mingling. The funds that people vote were backed up and bit finex and tether were the same company. That's why they both got the fines.

At the same time, they have also been banned from doing any having any customers in new york, and they've been banned in canada. And there's apparently A D O J wireless. So I think this is the beginning of the end, not the end of the beginning OK. That's my person I I wish.

Just wanted to get your reaction to what seemed like a really pathetic fine. Be a seventy billion dollar fraud.

I mean, facebook got a series of speeding tickets too. I mean, I think I mean, that's a big issue for our government is that birds played like .

five billion dollars.

Yeah, there are a trillion doll company.

I think it's nothing to five billion, a big number.

That's a big not in relation to their market cap in how much cash they throw off.

forty two million. I mean, that's a tax payment, the court tax for .

for you to not for us say, uh, maybe for sexy don't pretty well to you, right? Do we want we promise we do some questions. Should we do a couple of questions?

sure.

I mean, we also talk about the F, D, A.

And oh my god, the F, D, A, my god, free per. You wanted. Leave this.

everybody. You won't tell us about the case at the F D A. Well, I don't think it's chaotic like you guys think IT is counter you. What did you couple of these um changes in recommendations? Now all of these recommendations that um and you know these statements and approvals that are commodity F D A are predicated on these independent advisory panels that are put together to look at um research data um assess the research state and make a recommendation what they think is appropriate.

So we saw this happen with the booster shot a few weeks ago where initially the the advisory panel, which again is made up of independent doctors and scientists who generally don't have any sort of economic interest in the outcome here, they voted sixteen to two against everyone getting a booster shot, and then they voted eighteen to zero in favor of everyone sixty five and over and those at risk of getting a booster shot. And then recently there was, you know, similar sort of conservation around the maDonna. They ended up looking at data that indicated that maybe a half of which is fifty micrograms instead of one hundred micrograms would have a reasonable amount of efficacy relative to the side effect risk for people over sixty five.

And therefore, they made a recommendation to approve that as a booster, which E F D. A is now approving. And so again, the way this process is wrong and I can get a good process is independent advisers of doctors and scientists come together.

And the one that recently um came together was around this generalized use of an aspirin as a heart attack deterrent um because this is the blood and and limits the risk of of people getting heart attacks. But IT turns out that such A A large percentage the population or large enough percent of the population, we're having bleeding issues where your stomach bleeds. And know if you guys have this, know, I D N A I S, your stomach can bleed.

That that was causing more of a problem for people than they were seeing in the data in terms of a reduction in heart attack effects for people that were not highly at risk. And so they revise the recommendation and said, hey, let's give people that are only at risk and over a certain age, but and not just like to give me to everyone over forty or fifty. And so IT IT IT took in account new data.

And I think this is an important point. Science is messy, right? By definition, science is about gathering data, forming a hypothesis, testing again, iterating, restating your hypothesis, and designed to be circular, designed to be a learning system, not designed to be a system that defines absolute truth and absolute fat.

And it's good to see the F, D, A doing this work, and it's good to see scientists reviewing new data and changing their recommendations. And we've seen this in in health. We've seen this in in the food system, in the U.

S, D. A, changing their diet guidelines. And people used to be told, don't eat dietary saturated of fat is what causes this collection on your blood. So there are a lot of changes that that .

kind of emerged as new data was gathered and carbs, where all carb diets 也。

and then they left, they made change days. Yes.

way. Can we bring that back?

Starving are you see e pasta every day? This was rising my tens, and i've .

seen you IT rice is the shoveling of rice.

My only honest about this, the fact that special health officials can be wrong about positions we've maintained with, I guess, seemingly total certainty for decades, and now they can revise those positions. I mean, doesn't that learn some credence to some of these like anti I V accs arguments when they say, well, g i'm skeets ticals about injecting R M R N A into myself?

I think the episode banned on youtube. We just n .

i'm glad i'm lad. I got the vx, I got the fires, your um and I think, look, I could to save my life. I mean, I had a very mild case of the yeah one of the first street because so but I was very mild and I think that was because I got visor. I think the rest return was completely work with and but but I can also see why people with like five year old like aid dren might not want to get IT for kids when the upside is absolutely, you know, tiny, given that IT doesn't only affect five rules very much. And the downside is not this.

not outside known.

How's that any different than the asking thing?

But I know that wishes you had gotten really sick.

Yes no but people on .

the land I I don't .

I don't disagree with the framing that that um here's what typically happens. The scientists to the F D A panel will say based on the data that we have, this is our recommendation on what that happened. And then the framing that that people then assume is, oh, this is what they believe to be absolute truth and with absolute certainty, this, what we have to do.

And I think the translation layer to the general population is such that this is the ten commandments I came down from on si. And this is what i'm saying has to happen. And the reality is IT is based on data, and that data changes over time.

And I think that your point is right. There is no absolute certainty that the fizz vaccine is gonna absolutely perfect for everyone and it's going to absolutely reduce the risk more than IT um increases the risk for people five years old and and Younger. Um and it's a it's a very fair point that like but the problem, as we've seen on all sides, is that the framing is that these things are binary and they're not right. There is a probability distribution of which is defined as the risk and the the things that might go wrong and the probably distribution of the benefits. And then people .

assume that I I think I think excEllent point there. I just want understood, let me of transit, where are saying is that the people, the fda are in these positions, we actually understand the science, make a cost benefit analysis. And what they're saying and approving IT is that the cost, the race, sorry, the benefits out to the reis, the broad popular is a road population OK by way.

That's why I got the vaccine. I don't know for sure that there's no downsides in ten years as all I know is there's an upside immediate and I benefit from that. So I was very happy to take IT.

But in any event, and said this complicated cost benefit analysis, the media translators that into good, bad, it's almost like a moral case and then the politicians translate that into laws and rules. And if you question the rules, you're now a bad person because you've opposed that, couldn't quit. Good side of the argument.

I mean, for example, gaven, some just signed a bill in california saying that if you are a public school child, elementary school, kindergarten, you have to get vaccinated or to go to a public school, even though the vaccine does even exist for them yet. I mean, you could be provinces, which I guess I would conserve myself to be clearly prove. Ax, I mean, I got IT, my search year old got IT. I supported. I think it's, but this is here to make, but to require a five years to get in order .

to go to schools is a question for you. Freeze d um you know having this um one of the complaints has been the F D A restricts progress. I mean I think actually Peter till have this position for a while that we so just get rid of them and disband.

But what do we think about having the fda being framed as these are recommendations and then each state gets to make a decision with their local F D. A. So then if colorado or texas or florida had a difference of opinion about psychodeviant s about vaccines, they could run this .

is it's a really important matter of ethics. Yes, what are your ethics that you believe um you know should be the guiding principles for how the government plays a role in individuals making choice about their health and their body? And so if you believe that the government, and this is there's no right or wrong here, it's simply of framing of what you believe.

If you believe that is appropriate for the government to make the decision about what safe and not safe for you as an individual to do, then the F, D, A should stay in place and they should have their criteria of when they're ready to make a recommendation. There's enough data define the benefit and the cost of a particular thing that you might put in your body and then telling you, yes, you shout or shouldn't do this. If you and if not, they're going to take their time and figure that out.

Now if you don't believe that, then yes, the F, D, A should be descended. Drug companies will go around and they will tell people, take this drug that will save your life, and people will take IT. And there will be, there will be people that will suffer from that, that they remember the D, F, D, A is, do no harm.

So you know that that is the criteria for a docker in general. IT is a very difficult caterina to meet when there are costs to a drug, cost to a third, or treatment when people get chemotherapy for cancer. There are awful dilatory aside effects to their body.

But the benefit of saving their life and getting cancer, having at least a shot of doing that is great enough. And the S. D.

A has made a judged call that that cost and that benefit kind of created equation that says this is an approved drug now. And that's really their goal. And if they don't have enough data, they haven't taken enough time to figure that out. They don't feel comfortable approving a drug on making that recommendation.

But then if you let them get out of the way and you let individuals make choice, you could see this being a disgusting free for all, where drug companies will hot snake oil on people and a lot of harm will be caused. And that's that's the counter argument. And i'm saying one is rider is what the role that you want? I mean, it's really that what is the role that you want any government with its state, the federal government, to play in deciding what you can can do with your body, what you can can put in your body.

And ultimately, companies are making products for you can and can't say to you about the benefit in the cost of that product. And there's no simple solution, right? I am from two hundred million dollars, and not every individual is equipped to look at the data, and they could judgment call on their own. And so the question then is, what authority will they look to? And if the alternative authority that they will look to is not as good as as a research team of eighteen scientists, then they're probably going to end up getting bad advice, you think.

Carrying what you think the ultra career retires?

I they get sixty percent ring in two thousand dollars.

two hundred million or extension.

He gets paid like thirty or forty million thousand year. He refuses to get the vaccine, he said. The reason he's not getting the vaccine is because of all the people who don't have a choice, the pilots are being forced to get IT or not go to work. So he is a privilege, he says, and he wants to make this decision for everybody else. He also believes that the earth is flat.

Start.

that was a joke. He said, I don't think that was a joke.

Where you going there from jq.

a typing Carrier in flatter, he talked about, how do we know .

the earth .

is actually around and he based out .

going .

his what he unique and White sound. So I I .

that decision. Oro, no, no, because you wanted to come to the next inie convicted to that.

The reason take out you're still remember the media you have like a vistage o tail here is that you just bought in to the framework that freedom laid out, which is the media takes complicated issues, cost benefit analysis .

and next he's that he's but not .

coming to the next IT .

sounds to me like .

a man of conscience no, a man of conscience who's win to stand up on principle. Turn down two or million dollars. I got the vaccine for free. I sure as hell won't turn away two thousand and million dollars not to get IT.

So I mean, the two hundred million to not take IT. Would you have tagged and IT? Yes, I think 上海 think i'm not taking IT .

for two years。 There is I heard a great story yesterday. The poker table, one of the guys was killing me.

Uh.

it's his back camin teacher and he says his back and teacher or isn't in a good backup the teacher in a magician bob, about twenty years ago, he was asked um to get female breasts in plans for a year for a hundred thousand dollars. He did IT and he kept them for twenty years.

Quite a few. al.

So you know the bar for people to do, the bar for people to do things is really not that high ah is really what I took away from that story. And we Carry to draw the line on something that he believes in and it's gonna some two hundred million dollars. There's a lot of things that come with all of that noise. Um he should be allowed to make that decision in my view um and .

I don't like the way .

that he's characterized because I think this is a good human being. He's a phenomenal basketball player. Could you imagine how strongly he feels about this if he's trying to walk away from the game that he loves? And that's been an enormous part of his life.

why? Why is this so important to foist on career, irving, the need of vaccinated I me.

because in new york city, indoors, you have, that is a vacation requirement, and he can play home games. He could play taxes or houston. So we've talked about trading him to houston. But then when you went to the new york and you also can practice with the team in new york, new jersey, I guess massachusets, there's a bunch of states where you can go indoors without a vaccine. They're close proximately to each other.

The idea I just think we're turning a good thing into, which is the vaccine. I generally it's it's a great thing that I got done so quickly. It's a miracle science and I think it's helped a lot of people. I mean, all of us I mean, it's the thing that's going to end the pandemic largely ready has, but we're turning into a bad thing. But why are we demanding that these hold outs, like every last person, must get vacated?

But what about what about a flight attended? Should a flight attended before they're on a tina stars? Should they be you .

get so much protection by being vacuity yourself that I don't think so.

You believe in dates now. Well.

I think private companies have the right to to to MBA .

is a private I know I get IT so.

but i'm just i'm just started to really question here whether it's truly necessary to get single. One of these last hold doubts, I just there's something on american about imposing on three people this decision they can just make up through you in .

a previous episode said you were favor of IT if people were dying at a higher rate, if IT was more you know, you keep you say that you said if he was killing kids and .

a lot of people were died, sort of like ebola course to be a whole different cost benefit all um good luck what I said and I think this still my position is that government shouldn't require shouldn't stick a needle in your ARM. I think private businesses can do IT um or you don't use that service. So how much .

would you take for you to get big ups um implanted three years for one billion dollars?

Would you do IT only be .

so not saying like a strong dear or something like just like a modest be. no. I mean, is that a real story from us?

Yeah, send you .

the link.

It's i've lost sixteen pounds. I'm good. I'm good.

I'm i'm just like a perky a right now becomes be gone. The show has got off the rails. Um we promise the audiences.

We take two questions. The first one is for freedoms. G and the first question comes from Daniel nearness. He says alcohol made great progress in predicted protein folding. Is there anything similar for chemical synthesis? Could a similar system finally predict a less energy intensive pathway to ammonia than the harbour bosh process.

for example? A great question. Leics, a molecule as a function atam stuck together and there are electrons and protons that make up that molecule and therefore there is this kind of variable electric potential energy potential that surrounds that molecule.

And it's very difficult today to deterministic ally model how two molecules might interact with one another in physics and um IT turns out that that resolves using quantum physics. And so today we can't really kind of put two molecules together and say, here's what happens when you put these together and have a computer program very quickly, easily solve that. Quantum physics is involved and we don't have a good way to simulate quantum physics in binary computers.

So um one of the theories and and there's been some work on this in on the research basis creating the framework for is that we can use quantum computers to simulate the quantum states of molecules and use that to figure out how molecules might interact with one another and as a result, you can kind of see as creating simulations that resolve certain enzymes are proteins that might break apart molecules or stick molecules together um or other molecule combinations that might call something that happen. The harbor bosh process, which is being referred to, was discovered through trial and error in the early twenty of century by a germans physicist um an engineer. And they realized that if they compressed atmosphere ic um air to two hundred times atmosphere ic pressure and ran IT over iron catalysts with electricity except IT, broke apart the micro gen bonds and the in the atmosphere in the air that was compressed and trickled out ammonia, which is a nitrogen and hydrogen um and so this was like this amazing invention and save the world.

In fact, the world is a great book called the ultimate there if anyone's was sitting hearing about this um but he was through trial and iron and we ve got so figure lucky as a species that we figure this out using quantum computing in the next thirty years, hopefully will be able to deterministic ally a model these these behaviors on on on on a molecular atomic level and as a result, kind of build new systems to make things um and it'll be an incredible um kind of tool kit for humans that advances a lot of science and a lot of engineering or forward. I'm still really strongly of the belief, and this goes back here on early. And so i'm going on a bit of rap in one hundred to one hundred and twenty years from now, I do think we will all have A A replicator in our room and that replicator will make all the things we want to make nearly instantaneously with very low energy and very low cost.

New some food.

the next car you want to make, I mean, we could see. And by the way, this is a crazy concept, is not just about all, you know, quantum stuff for the whatever was described in start trackers, but the general principle that you can locally make things and locally make things cheaply with very little energy and very little input. Changes the whole supply chain model or seeing this increasingly with new technologies, with three d printing and by a manufacturing. You start to put this all together and you take a non when you're track out in the next couple decades and you get to a point that all this nonsense were talking about mining stuff in one place and making IT another .

and shipping combining IT all the other side, you're going to be able to print .

a conscience and can so you're going to be emotion. So yeah.

a question for sex matte or I guess me and also to math uh, and I I guess all four of us matte chavez asks between being a VC founder, Angel corporate employee, which has been the most fun, rewarding, and why what advice would you give someone early in their career hoping to be be like you multi channel investor thought leader when they can roll up sex? Well, I didn't.

I didn't become A V, C. Until after I had already done a few towards of duty as a founder and Operator. So I made my recommendation would be to get involved in start of first, generally get some open experience and that would .

I or even bigger companies. I just think getting getting some raps inside of an organza is critical.

I tell everyone that, uh, that's coming out of college or early in their careers, it's important you go get that perspective and work in a bigger business. I mean, spent a few years google now with a thousand people when I joined, grew to ten thousand by the time I left but like I learned so much just in that role and seeing successful product, successful models for Operating a business um IT was really uh impact for for me long term. And then you go and make all the mistakes as a founder building A A start up, you a lot of people end up with bad confirmation bias. If they work at to start up, they didn't work out and they think and all they can draw from is a failed model for Operating um things which was .

your favorite which you know role has been your favorite to take freeburg.

You know when I was an executive at monsanto, a was really nice to have that private jet that would come out and take me places. They had a whole security .

requirement already anyway.

有一个 像 wall.

the one percent.

one percent. And make IT a video I said .

the that you said IT in your heart on your word.

what was your favor? Sex.

my favorite stand. Well what I mean obviously what we did a papal has gone on to become uh, legend. And then you know, paypal, I was the fa C, O. We like that to union exit. So to be the two best, I was joking about the private.

that thing I honestly like me and I I said, i'm sure you know, and the rest guys can feel the same, but like making a great product and selling that product, you know, working with with that product is honestly like the most rewarding thing you can do is like, you know, getting your hands dirty and actually delivering something of value in the world. There's nothing more rewarding than that. I mean, all the financial engineering and making money and all the nonsense that goes on is really kind of a zam out of that. But that's really where reward comes in.

Yeah, I feel that way too. I was joking about the private jet too.

which one was yet.

which I I think the nick me was speaking. So yeah, I was that the first experience of payout, the cycling ence, was hamor private .

at the global .

five hundred to defend myself on stealing toiletries .

on chrome plane.

Defend yourself in which the .

mini bottle scope. I like half .

of IT what you on your plane? I took a two true story. I did take the .

half bottle .

of py. You, I.

P, P, A.

A.

So, yeah, okay. So here I can take this unna story is going as going on. You didn't take as as going on a, as going on A A business trip with um a couple of you know friend's co workers who are actually founders.

Now the company I back anyway, we are going to like an event in I think is in land is just like a four hour flight. So they at they open the liquor, draw whatever and saw the pipe and not like they could have. So sure, take whatever you want.

And I went in the back and and went to sleep. So but by the time we land, like four hours later, the entire pappy when winkle like stash has been, they've gone through IT and is all these type of puppy. You've got the puppy twenty three. You've got some these, you've got some these and e and tie ones. So they asked me here, they ever fall in our private point before they asked me, you know, I asked how much to this flight host, and I said that costs about six dollars in jet, fielded about eight thousand dollars in path.

You may wink the puppy to the check, oh my god.

I am from around way.

I'm living with something. I'm living with some thing. You like I dss 吗？

In suffer way possible. Um let you best you.

I IT .

no edit, nothing, highlight and make up the opening. All right. For the queen of kinda, David freeburg, for rain man, David .

sex and the dc and .

I we're the .

s nobody know.

everybody .

Better .

security .

take off. See next time.

Let your.

Winter light, man.

We open sources to the fans and .

just got crazy with.

What your B B, what .

your be.

be good way to get marking are 东里 东里。