E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
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Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of the all in podcast. It's been a crazy couple of weeks here. We had the all in summit and boy, was that amazing.

Our busty David freeboard couldn't make IT today. Uh, he had some personal things he had to attend to. So joining us again is brad gardiner. Welcome back to the fifth busy on his is this your forth appearances down, including the all in summit? I think even on four times now.

Very good.

right? That's about five percent of the episodes. Nice, nice. I guess a nice will chip in. Uh, your, you felt there.

I mean, unworthy replacement of freedoms. G, but I do what .

everybody can replace, freedom. That is the truth.

We force to the fans .

and got this. Just going around the horn here from of did you have a favorite moment on stage, a favor moment off stage? What is your general passions of the online summit?

Twenty twenty two? I thought the people I met were um really impressive. I really enjoyed meeting people in learning what they did. I also thought and your team organized um really an an incredible event, and I forgot how good you are these things, but I give you a lot of credit. I really enjoy participating. The only thing that I was nervous about during that whole thing, which probably limited a little bit of my fun, was my mom was coming.

She's eighty one, and so was not I was not super site to really be in the throes of all the parties, to be honest, just because I was like I did, I didn't necessarily want to to get cove in and I didn't want to introduce IT to her and got IT yes, you know that ended up getting really, really sick but more uh, like a flu in a cold yeah um but you know i've been fine. My mom's fine. I I know a bunch of folks that came unfortunately test a positive. So that was only that only downside where I I would wanted to be a little bit more carefree. But um that was the only thing that was but that's not .

anybody's control. So yeah but I recall that when I, A Christian party that can get somewhere, and he got of IT like a week latter, he called my Chris is party as super spreader. Even though I tested everybody at the door, every single person was negative at this.

I so so my parents went to this conference. They both got covered. My ane, who lives in miami, he was in seventy, he got .

covered. Are it's it's a micron.

IT was like, it's like bad for two days and then get Better. So there .

there can be fine.

Thank did and one didn't. So my .

brothers got over .

and see your brothers got IT.

just Jamie got IT and then josh's wife got IT so SHE um took the packs lovin everybody's great now but yeah IT if you go to my a lot of people who came to the event, IT was their first time out. Like this was for a lot of people, I think, very emotional and exciting because IT was their first venture out. And if you go to miami to a conference like you're gonna get you get of IT.

especially if the event organized doesn't test .

anybody in practical to test eight hundred fifty people.

nobody would come make a profit.

Now IT wouldn't have actually been that expensive. You could put that on the people. They could just, you know, share the result.

But I think at this point, know, even on the planes going out there, nobody's oring mass that eni, know what, you guys are flying private. But my flight out there, IT was all you. Nobody y's wearing masks anymore.

But anyway, J, K, I think everybody who went to the conference took the risk upon themselves of getting coat. And it's not the end of the world or anything. They are all fine, but i'm just playing out the apocrypha popovers y yes, exactly.

It's like you're like Nancy pelosi or something where you every time a republican gets coated, it's their fault. But when you throw a super spreader and I think ais now stand all in super spreader, it's not your fault. IT was well beyond your control IT was the virus and in fact .

he was probably just florida IT was at both .

of you now have .

throwed super spread er event .

yes but in mind I tested yeah it's not improve .

of in that .

mine was a super spread ter right .

in in all seriousness, did you have a favorite moment on stage .

or some reflections on the event? The palmer lucky thing was pretty incredible.

which we will be releasing the pm lucky .

next um I think that that episode is uh, I opening yeah .

we don't want to say too much.

but I think that you were a really I think you handled yourself really welfare.

Thank you for .

that to have what actually happened. I wasn't there for that portion. I haven't heard something .

about some mary here of that.

I give you the outside version. He gives what I can only describe as an incredibly motivating breakdown of american defense and what his company you know, if remember, to put IT in context, this is a twenty nine year old Young man who has now started two multibillion dollar unicorn. So, you know this, he's gonna around for a long time doing amazing things.

But he talks about Andrew, which is his defense company, really impressive. And then the whole, you know, everybodys kind of like rousing and cheering and a plood. And then he said, you know, I have something else that I want to get off my chest and I was standing beside Jason backstage. He was looking at the monitor.

I was looking at the mirror at myself, but and check your sweater and and he said, you know, there's a person here that that has been, you know, really hard on me, you know, try to rule my life, attack my family, and represents, you know, these relate this train of very influential people, silk valley, who have gotten IT totally wrong, basically, can. He called out council culture, and then he called out Jacob and the jackets credit he after he was done. Jack, I was the first one that walked out on stage shop, palmer's hand, and then we all SAT down, we talked to, and then the two ended, are hugging IT out the end. But there are moments I were very heated in the middle of IT. Um, the whole thing was incredible to watch.

I gotta honest that the most shocking and surprising aspect of the whole thing was that a person as important as palmer lucky felt the need to get revenge on a person .

as an important ji is that was the part.

I really what he's like my career was.

what is that important people that I initially thought? My god is talking about me.

What did I say that was, I was done by that. Two of them being honest. He's like, my entire career was stopped in its tracks and I had to call my way back because jacon colicchio said this and I was like, no.

actually, i'm looking forward to when you .

going to be a great epo de. It's going to be coming out next week.

Thank you to all. Yes, I want to give a shut up to blank en role metta eb and tony osi Martinez for appearing. And we did two different panels.

We did one on domestic politics with a glen and tie by. And then we did a debate on ukraine, which has now been published between glen and tonio and particular. I wanted think antonio, because I did end up being a little bit of a two and one at the end, which wasn't my intention.

But I have views on IT too, although I did try to be somewhat restrained and even handed in the moderation. But it's a really good debate. We should have had long where we only need about thirty minutes, but you can see that on mine right now.

but actually is a great example of actually how to listen to somebody else having a completely diametrically opposed you and still be respectful. I thought those guys were great to listen to.

I think it's a new format tax. And I think you know somebody was like here maybe you in j how could do I think you and I moderating like two people to size that could be like a really interesting format for us, for future events, a favorite moment on stage, maybe outside of iron. Of course.

you can mention, you know, maybe both on stage and off stage. You know, I think, listen, I think this podcast has taken some shots, and probably appropriately so at times, for the and a bunch of man in a little road culture and the effort made to build authentic community and diversity into that room.

I've been to a lot of conferences, whether is clear theale you, Patty wax eline extraordinary, you know, minds, women, all diverse cultures, economic backgrounds, when we walked around the floor, he, you know, inDiana, kentucky, was future everywhere, right? And who are starting companies having authentic conversations and Frankly, were grateful for the community and the advice that they were being given. These were from big startups to very small startups. And so for me that was A A highlight. The effort you made, I don't know, most forty percent women, you know both economic I thought as well as you know geographic a diversity and then you know listen, I had a moment after a bill and I after girl and I got off stage um I was stopped by a group of founders and they said, hey, we need your help I said what and they said we are that company you and bill were just talking about and said was screwed we raised one hundred million dollars last november from from tiger at one hundred times I are what do we do right?

And like like .

the fact that that you know that those conversations are going on, of course they're not. Screw is a very interesting company, but IT LED to a real conversation that you don't and have a conference is like that. And so I thought I was much more than just a bunch of talking heads on stage. I thought IT was a real given take in a you know uh in the crowd afterwards, the parties, the in between. And so I really enjoy that.

The other big um thing that we avoided um fAiling on was uh putting back the A M S. I think these ams are some of the most interesting parts of that conference. And I think that we should make sure that we probably do an A M A Jason like days we do a two day conference. The ams are also .

yeah the audience is asking us and and just to explain to people how we were able to um you know curate the audience, we ask people and think a good playbook for other people if they want steal IT to um they they could pick the Price they wanted to pay based on their station in life.

And so people said, I want to come, i'll pay five hundred or pay a thousand and i'll pay twenty five instead the seven, five hundred take a Price like three hundred people in the audience. And we just said, hey, what do you love about the show? You know, what was coming to the conference mean to you? And we kind of just sorted that.

And we look for people who are passions about the show. And then, you know, the thing out that stuck out to me, and I know freeburg had a great time as well, was the passion of a the audience and how much they appreciate what we do here every week. And so the love that we got, people asking to take self, people telling us what the show meant to us, you know, and people coming from all different stations in life, really made IT not the latest, but IT felt like the people who were there were all builders.

And that was really an interesting part. What I instructed the team to do is anybody who was like a real state broke or a money manager, a cells executive of a business development person. I said, let's not have them there.

No offence to those, you know, critical. Tions, but a lot of people come to to the events, to selling to customers. But I said, anybody who is a builder and artists, they're making something in the world.

Let's give them the priority for this. The scholarship. Take a you know, when you met people, they were all building something interesting in the world and and no press, I think also created a certain vibe there.

We didn't have the media there criticizing every panel and, you know, every speaker. And so I think I just yeah made IT some natural, well, I think IT really couldn't do without all you guys are and freeburg. And the best is, and brad, you were helping behind the scene. So I couldn't do without everybody. And my team .

turned out surprisingly well. I thought, I thought the whole thing was A J hot grip. And that actually been there.

never seen an accounting .

exactly where all the money went.

Take close. We'll have that account day now the day.

What could you have done Better? What would you change for the next?

You know, this is a great question. We always do a document with lessons turned right after the event. So I went through to my team and I had twenty six people for my team, uh, twenty one from launch and I think far from inside came in, you know helped staff the event a little more time to to work on the speakers in the agenda.

Um if we had a little more time, I would have teased out of each pi, you know maybe five or ten speakers or topics they wanted and work backwards. So it's just a little more time to to experiment with the format. But I I took an experimental approach to IT.

We did have people who did solo dolo like ted style talks. We then had people come on stage, uh, with the best ties and do discussions. But having all best ties on stage all the time is a little hard for for everybody. I know David likes to focus on maybe a couple of things other people like to map and I like to be on stage for everything I think um but the format was experimental and there was a couple of great moment, I think when we overlap folks. So I think need silver overlap with key throw boy you and build girly together, timo and i'm sorry, overlapped with Keith or boy, those were magical moments, I think. And so I have a um something in my brain about weaving individual talks and data points with the best days and then having the next speaker on the stage, the next speaker and I would have like to have more time to refine that format.

I think. okay. My only questions was the palmer lucky deal. Was that a plant? Did you plan that I you took i've had .

invited him on this week starts before all and came out many times he said, fuckyou, basic cleaning, so many words I hate shake out and then when all in came out, he's a fan of this show and I think he's particularly a fan of David taxes. And I think David knows a lot of the investors, but the investor pools, I think, overlap in a lot of different circles of ours.

And I said we'd like to come to the summit and I and I basically said to a hard felt like less than I think to work you're doing to protect the country most people. So can. I don't believe in building weapons stent, but I can.

And with you on this, so we probably have some ground here. I think the mission of what you're doing more important than our disagreement from, you know, the Hillary clinton versus trump days. Maybe we could just you put that aside and have you speak and surprisingly, people were like, yes, I didn't know they were doing yes because he had a plot to dunk me.

But who cares like I don't mind being dunk on if i'm wrong about something or right. It's the whole sphere of this show is to, you know to learn and grow and have great conversation. So with that, maybe we start the show.

Now let's do all right.

Let's go. Let me be I I still allowed to do intrusts or is a too trigger because I do have .

interest for this week.

Do IT I do IT? okay? I got themselves only alter.

nice. Well.

that's a cavy out that I cannot guarantee. But anyway, here we go, getting ready to gala van across the italian countryside. He spent forty k at all, in sum on food and wine.

He took four hundred itself years and three hours. Those sweater is my lord, the weak of power. The dictator himself is back to moth POI optio. Welcome back to the show.

Thank you, Jason.

All right, his body looks like he doesn't cake. He's got a major stake in snowflake. You might have heard him earlier on the week with bill glee.

He's the cross over fund manager. With that, B, D, are five best. The audience hangs on everywhere.

He has to say the dark night of normous. stay. Welcome back to the program. Brager son.

I like IT. I what's P D E?

If you don't know, then you don't know, you can look that up. Urban dictionary he's bad to turn fifty, but he looks like he's sixty five for seventy two hours of miami when not sure he still alive, the cup paper is just the x resize. His portfolio been done for thirty five straight days. No surprise, the rain man himself is back. David sacks, too rough on sex.

okay. Is that okay?

I felt like I might want to rough on sex, right? I guess we start with markets and S M P five hundred and fifteen percent year day dw 1 percent。 Two stocks of note that did particularly well during cove IT.

Zoom and snowflake reported their earnings this week and they beat expectations of course that uh gives them no reprove uh market cap for a zoom. Thirty one billion, got almost six billion dollars in cash, uh, which was president moved to to cash up. I guess during the the boom times the stock jump in eighteen percent after the earrings so grave for them. Q N, revenue, twenty twenty three, one billion, two 2 percent year over year， about eighty percent growth margin for that business.

Prety impressive, five hundred .

million adjusted free cash flow, seven thousand employees. There are almost five hundred thousand per employee, uh, at this point, and stock is still down forty three percent year to date, but a little bump here or so I I guess we might be pub along the bottom. And and just to quickly we have snowflake and get your comments after that, snowflake reported their coral earnings yesterday.

Forty one billion dollar market cap. They got almost four billion in cash. They were down slightly at the typing of the episode today, and they're one sixty seven percent from the peak, four hundred nine dollars to share in november. So they're not in the eighty five percent plus club like coin base and pellett. But still, we've lost two thirds of their market cap, four to twenty two million in revenue, eighty five percent year over year, beat their expectations uh and um cross march and seventy two percent net retention, hundred seventy four percent uh seventy percent on growth within within their existing customers to dive with access point about why SaaS is so great. They got four thousand employees, uh sixty three hundred total customers. So uh, I guess maybe starting with the ubs and you you're in this in the c of IT thoughts on uh, I know your major snowflake early supporter thoughts on what's happening in the market and maybe any indication, uh, from these two, let's fit strong results uh, in the bouncing along the bottom, I think, is how we'd all describe what what happening right now.

Well, I think, listen, what makes investing hard is sometimes you have to hold cy multi eus truth, right? And the reality is there's a lot of cognitive of dissident when you see something down thirty, forty, fifty percent. But IT may be still fair value, right? We were talking about last october, like, make no mistake about IT just takes snowflake as an example.

The move from four hundred to two hundred was probably just what I would describe as Normalization in a world where rates were going back to two and a half or three percent, right? The market last october had gone too high. We discussed on this pod, we discussed on cnbc.

And so I expected a return to what we call the five year average as we discuss at the summit. What's been surprising to me is the negative reflexivity that's kicked in as a result of the warn ukraine, uncertainty about hyper inflation, uncertainty about hyper rate. And so now we're seeing software generally all risk assets, growth assets trading now thirty, forty, fifty percent below the five year average, right? I don't think it's helpful to say, well, none of that should have happened.

No, the reality is Normalization meant that all of this stuff was going to be down twenty to fifty percent because IT was way over value last fall. We gas lighted ourselves in many respects. We didn't hedging perfectly in many respects.

But that's you know, that's what happens in late market cycles. So the question is where we today and for example, like why is the as that up three hundred bases today, right? This IT feels like whip lash. I come in one day and you know, you have market caps up ten percent one day, down to ten percent next. And so I think it's really important to help the people listening, understand, you know like what happened this .

week and what's going on. IT has been kind of A A pretty mixed back this week, in fact, of of things going down to math. What you to take on this of what we're seeing in the market this week, specifically with precipitous drops and then you know the bouncing up again, look.

we we still had some amount of rate uncertainty from the food. I think people weren't sure how aggressively they were going to hike. But by early this week, IT was pretty clear.

There is going to be two fifty point hikes, one in june and one in july, and then effectively a pause because then the fed funds rate will be at around two percent and everything from there will probably be path and data dependent. Okay, that's effectively what they said. Now I think the the markets had actually already started to see that writing on the wall.

So if you go back to, you know, one of our favorite measures which is detained, your break even, it's effectively ruled over, which meant that know which means that from the highs in sort of lady April IT started to come down, which says that, you know, they were thinking that, you know, the inflation was not going to be as bad in the back off of the year. And then the second is that corporate credit, which is really what matters in some ways to the fed because that's where they can intervene. What is the spread above treasuries that the company can issue that?

When IT goes crazy and IT goes up, IT means, oh, no, the cost of capital going up, that's gonna hard for companies to raise money. They may have to lay people off. They may need to get into cost cutting mode, right? That's what goes through everybody's mind.

But that's also now about thirty five and forty days rolled over, which means that the gap is started to shrink. You know between the U. S. Treasury y Price and what you know decent corporate can can issue that that. So IT looks like we are set up for potentially a decent little rally here.

The problem is, is that a rally that is sustainable? Or is IT a rally that's basically what we call a dead cat bounce or a bear market rally where, you know, you just get some one or two weeks of relief before the thing bears down again. And we're not gna know.

Although tomorrow, on friday, there is going to be a really important set of inflation data that gets released. And I think everybody is is going to be sweating these details. So right now, we're in a moment of pause and there is the potential if this data comes back as reasonably good, which means Prices you know not escalating as much as we thought. Um inflation is not going to be as bad, growth is going to be moderate. That that gives a lot of ammo for the first to kind of take their foot off the um off the gas here and if that case arcs will go boom.

sex. Um the interesting note I think is um what we talked about here, uh everything was correcting except housing. And we were wondering when this uh you know the increasing rate would hit mortgage rates.

Mortgage is way about five percent in the last two weeks, I think gets come down a little bit, but the morning trade basically doubled. And then we finally saw IT earlier in this week. Um what day was two days ago so we're taping this on thursday. I think on tuesday, new home cells five hundred ninety one thousand, they expected seven hundred forty nine and I think the last month before that was seven hundred sixty three. Is that uh indicative of the um raising the rates and slowing down inflation has finally occurred and that when maybe we the fed maybe steered too much into the turn? How do you interpret that mass IT was a pretty massive myth in terms of home cells in the estimate?

Well, the cost of buying home are going way up because homelands are not more expensive. So that's going to factor into all sorts of consumer purchases. Is anything that finance can be more expensive? We are also seeing companies starting to slow down spending, uh, really starting to same on the brakes we see and start up and and starts all slashing costs right now.

But that's eventually ing in a percolate de up topic companies too. He saw das memo basically when he got back from wall very publish that couples go saying we to sharp our pencils, cut everything um what wall street is looking for now is free cash flow. Um so IT seems to me like I had IT into pretty serious downturn, a recession here.

I mean, i've been saying we're in a recession for months. Um the tRicky thing for the fed is that they don't have a lot of good options because we have a lot of recession indicators blinking red right now. At the same time, inflation is so high.

So they're kind of call betwen a rock and a hard place. I think what the fed should have done is in twenty twenty hind side is back last summer when we've first got that shot, CPI print number was like five point one percent seem to come out the blue. Because for years and years we have been talking about deflation.

Nobody thought deflation was a problem over. So we got that five point one percent print. They were untold denial about IT.

They just dismissed IT saying that inflation was transitory, and you, yelling, said the same thing. And so basically, everyone just ignored the data for six months. And what they shall have done was stop QE right then.

And there they could have taken a little bit time to think out, you know, a rate increase strategy, but they were still basically engaging in QE for nine months after that first inflation warning. And if they're stock Q E. There, then we ouldn't have had this asset bubble in the second half of last year.

That's one inflated the most, and we could have had more of a soft landing. unfortunately. Now they let the they kept inflation and really until the end of q one and they've walked away the punch ball so violently that I think the real economy can go into recession.

So that's what you are right now. I mean, I don't know what that at the right answer is. Now given that were in this almost deflationary position.

let's try and answer that. What is if we didn't act soon enough, if you agree with sexy point, pretty hard to disagree with. And we didn't take the medicine a little bit at a time. And now maybe we've overreacted or maybe it's onna get worse.

What is the right thing for us to be doing now because all these companies doing hiring freezes, layoff s at the same time at the housing markets ank, at the same time cyp to tanks at the same time the stock market tanks. This feels like A A major shock to the system. Is the time to maybe reconsider some of these um no you know for the feed to reconsider or just slow and steady wins the race here. What's the best option?

First, we should erect statues to senator mansion for saving the republic by vetoing timmy too. That would have been devastating. That would have been devastating.

So will revisit that. Listen, the fed said too, really important things. This week. They said, number one, our communications have been helpful in shifting market expectations. What that means, the fed is the air traffic control.

They said to the markets at the beginning of the year, your ninety degrees of runway heading, get your eyes back on runway heading IT was a slap in the face to market and IT was a radical adjustment. Now you hear the fed in these little statements this week. They said, hey, where well position this year to assess the effects of policy firming in the backup s the same, we're gona hit with fifty, fifty.

And then we're going to take a look. So now think of IT as air traffic control. Your two degrees to the left, your two degrees to the right.

They're steering us on runway heading. I don't think the fed wants to do anything at this moment to lose credibility in the inflation fight. We're going to get fifty.

We're going to get another, another fifty. But they're doing what they want to do, which is keeping market is sufficiently tight, right? They wanted to take crypt l market down.

They wanted to take all the excessive risk in the market down, right? You're absolutely right. The inventory of three hundred and fifty thousand dollar homes Spiked from four months to nine months, right? Use car Prices are rolling over the last three months. All the things they needed to do, they're doing right. They need to stay the course. However, the hyper venom this week by bill action on twitter that the fed needs to be doing radically more, that somehow we need to be raising rates to six, seven, eight percent in order to squash inflation, to me seems highly misdirected and totally out of touch with the fact that on layoffs, F Y eye, they've already announced seven hundred and fifty companies that are announcing layoffs, right? The market is getting the drill.

I I totally agree with this. I think we're a we're we're in a pretty reasonable place here. The real the real question is now what do you need to take the market lower? And this is more of a nuance.

But you know when you look at companies that are now quote, quote cheap, right? Let's take an example like you um you know well we hear a lot about google or facebook, right? People say, my gosh, this is cheap because if you run a screen on IT, it's like ten, eleven, twelve times Price to earnings.

Well, the Price you know because you can look on the screen. The real question is, are the earnings right? And um the thing that can take the market lower is if you actually think earnings are modeled incorrectly, right? So we thought this week as well, snap I mean completely just blew themselves forty .

six percent down today yesterday and want .

to say something about one day. They have the most incredible propensity to self emulate on earnings calls than any other company i've ever seen. There's probably been three times, no less than three times over the last four years where I don't know whether it's just poorly scripted or not well rehearsed or the people that are helping even get ready for these things, but these are disastrous calls.

You know, facebook had a couple in its lifetime, but snap, consistently, probably once every eighteen months, will do this anyways. The thing just completely explodes. The stock implodes by forty eight percent or something.

And then IT, you know, rules over to companies like facebook and girl, who they are off eight or ten percent. My point in telling you the story is that if you think facebook and google, just as an example, again, are cheap at ten times, while you Better hope that the earnings are right. Because if the earnings are actually wrong, that's actually twenty seven times in nineteen times you are making these numbers up, to give you the example, because the earnings are fundamental wrong.

So that's the risk now that's left in the market, in my opinion, that could take IT much, much lower is if that you know, all of this slowdown really contract spend and the earnings are actually not accurate, the forecasts earnings will need to be revised over the next two or three quarters. And that's where we will probably see the low if, however, growth is muted and the fed can, as bad side said, it's a really good analogy. Gy, now just course correct.

By degrees. You a degree here, degree there. We've probably consolidated the laws.

So said another way, we look at a company like snap or google, a lot of their expected value has to do with people's ad spend. We now see less homes being sold. So maybe people in real state stop spending less on IT.

There are a major advertising category, maybe directed consumer of people are not buying because the supply chain issues. This stuff is too expensive and we not going to spend on ads. And so all of this ad revenue, that's some of the first to come out of people's budgets. So you know, even as great as snaps results actually, look, they were up thirty eight percent year over a year. Uh, the generating over hundred million of free cash flow.

The guide was terrible because what they said was our e right our earnings right are not model accurate, right? And so that's the worst that you now have to take to every company. You cannot look at the screen at new ahoo finance, bloomberg.

Look at a Price to earnings ratio and say, wow, seven times that's so cheap. IT may not be seven. You have to do your own work. IT could actually be much higher than that because earnings may be at risk.

The earnings being at risk is this condition that we talked about. I don't know. Six, maybe we're going on almost a year now, sax, we talked about a contagion happen because we've experienced IT in the last two recessions to the dock on bus and the great recession.

So what are you seeing in terms of accompanies this contagion risk? Are people canceling SaaS contracts on the margins? Obviously, people are during haring freezes. Obviously, people are laying people off.

Are people going to serve renegotiating a salaries? You know what? What's the next couple of shoes to drop your sacks? And that would signal to you a true bottom here.

Like have you seen I thought maybe one would be if somebody offered somebody in investment with a two or three times liquidation preference. Have you seen those yet? Have you seen people say we're gona negotiate sales because that's when I was really .

dark right the last two times yeah going to take time to get to to that point. I mean, where you start seeing structure in deal in deals is when a founder is trying to preserve evaluation they got last year and that can really be justified, but they don't wanted to take the downwind. So you try to preserve the optics the last round by building all these preferential terms.

We don't like to do deals that way, but you'll start to see them happened later this year when the companies get more desperate. That's not the first thing that happens, though. I think that to your point about the talent market, it's definitely going to happen.

Has to happen yet? No, what has to happen as first, all these open rex get cancelled. Companies trees are hiring plans. Then eventually .

they do layoffs come both of things, both are here. So what's the next in talent wars?

Well, yeah, I mean, look, but within the next six months, the talent markets can be as hot. And you know in the same way that startups aren't getting ten term sheet now, then maybe they get one or two. If there are a good company, same thing with talented, right? They are not going have ten job offers that might have one or two.

And that's going to create that's going to create the same upward pressure, continuing upward pressure for for increases in comp to your point about like what sass contracts be cut? I mean, I think software is pretty sticky. I mean, if it's a good product, um will deal cycles get longer? yes.

Will there be more mortality risk in the starter press and b customer basis of companies? yes. Um I think one concept that starves may want to wrap their heads around is why we called deferred mortality risk, meaning that during the last three years was during the boom times, the graduation rate from sea to series A A, series b was very high perhaps are officially.

So there's a lot of companies I got funded in advance the next round where in more Normal times, they wouldn't made IT. So now if those companies haven't really fix the issues, they've just deferred the mortality. So I think all of us probably necessary and need to be modeling out higher logo turn uh for uh if for customer basis that are you towards start of resin bees. And we don't know what those numbers are going to be yet, but that is likely to happen.

I think that that's right. I think the other thing is that there there's a lot of companies that are gna have to get religion on free casual conversion A S A P. And I just think that most CEO, to be very blunt, are poorly educated and numerous.

So the level of numerous even understand this is pretty poor. And most of board directors are equally. Can you unpack .

IT right now? What what does that mean to to get the business a to free cash flow? What does he take? Why is IT important? And what are the how of those businesses look .

differently to the more to spend less, then you make a hold on.

I just wanna make sure I got to a correct, you make money, but the number of the money you make is higher than the number of the money you spend got IT. okay. And then there's a delta there. There there's some difference between those two numbers, and that numbers important to some people's what you're saying.

I think increasingly getting that number to be greater than zero um is going to be really important IT IT allows you again, everybody starts to throw out this whole thing, which is, oh my god, you can never slow growth and the company will die and yeah may be in a vacuum that that's true. But when every other company is fighting tooth nail to survive, the only thing that you need to do is actually survive by surviving, you win yeah.

And if you can basically make your cash last as long as possible, even if you cut to the bone and stop growing, if you come out the other end and you're the only company that left, you will win and run over the market. You may have pushed to the right a few years your plans of world dominance, but they're still available to you. It's the company that foolishly thinks that they can continue to spend money at the same rather in the same ways that are gone to learn this hard lesson because I think that um investors are not going to tolerate being able to you know provide incremental capital to organizations, funds who are then you know misallocate that capital to basically support a poorly mark portfolio.

And I think that is going to be the real come to jesus that actually makes all of this thing come clean like pension funds, family offices in downtown, all these organizations are smart enough to realize that they're giving good money after bad. If what those folks are you going to do is not demand portfolio rehabilitation. And instead, they are just gonna basically keep the Marks of their old funds because they're just in a in a game of waiting IT out where the hope .

taking action greater than, you know, blind hope and just going, you know, steady doing what you've been doing.

You ve got to make some changes. And I think most growth oriented funds are looking at their portfolios and they're trying to baLance two strategies. Strategy one is get into massive rehabilitation mode.

The problem is most of these people have never built to run a company, so they have no idea how to rebid ate anything there. You know, market momentum folks. And in that they were excEllent.

But in actually helping C, E, O build and rebuild the business, I think that they're not as well suit doesn't mean they can do IT, but they are not as well suited. That's pathy. But I think that path is very painful.

And IT requires you to take medicine, the bitter medicine, which is to basically mark portfolio down fifty or sixty percent, just like the public market terminal valuations have gone down. The other alternative is to basically raise enough money to do, for example, unPriced converts into those same companies so that you don't have to remark so that the auditors will be allowed to Carry these fake valuations. You can maybe market down to fifty percent, but I don't have the market down fifty or sixty percent and hope the market returns to its previous state.

But as we've all talked about, that previous state is probably unreliable because IT was a moment where we had a global pandemic, where we took rates to zero and we printed nine or ten trillion dollars of access liquidity that inflated these things. So I got to think that, you know, Prices in twenty nineteen were a little bit ticking up. Twenty twenty were really taking up. Twenty twenty one was agreeable and twenty twenty two is to come. Is now where IT all comes some truth?

Uh, brad explained to us, we hear free cash flow, we hear income net income ebata. We hear all these terms. And now free cash flow is what everybody is focused on.

I believe that seems to be the predominant rally cry and a lot of public market companies. Now can you explain to people what the difference between these things are? Because people kind of bundle them together. What why would somebody like dari were just say, hey, you know, we've been talking about adjust you but a, but a income, that income, all the stuff, but free cash for us, what we want to focus on now?

Or is that correctly? You you on our friend bill girly rails on this adjusted, adjusted. And, you know, look to your left, look to your right.

Adjust IT one more time, evita, right? Like in markets like this, what people want to know? Or what's the Green stuff I can take out of the business and put under my mattress, free cash, low distributable free cash flow.

And not only that, how much per share. I think the single biggest issue growth investors are focused on today is the easy way out for all these companies. Theyll tapped down a little bit on their hiring.

Theyll tapped down on their spin, but out of the back door, they want to give a bunch of free stock to employees to help offset that pain. This is really important to understand because stock is a real expense, right? When a company goes public, the more shares you have to lower your Price.

So IT is a real expense to everybody, the founders, the employees, the investors, right? And so what's what I think the single biggest conversation going on in bedrooms and look valley today is, hey, can we have a little bit more stock this year, whether it's options or whether it's out write our issues to give two employees? Because if we don't give IT to employees, they tell us they're going to leave.

This is a real hard truth. I had a CEO of an incredible company, comi, and say, listen, we pay our engineers a million box ahead, but we give them stock that over the last five years has been worth another million dollars each year. So they built their lives as though they had two million dollars a year in income. They bought a house, they bought cars.

They sent the kids .

to private schools. Based upon that two million dollars. And now when we tell them that this up coming here, the mail, we're not making hole on that million IT can be when we win, you win and we lose, you win.

So the tough conversation is we're not reaping you because the stock spent cut in half. And so now that engineers said, yeah, but this year, that means i'm only getting paid one point to know you. And the answer, the tough, the answer is yes, right? Shared sacrifice.

You should have never assumed that that was gonna worth in incremental million dollars year. But that takes leadership, that takes courage, that takes a board that knows what they are doing to explain that over the full arc of that employment. And the first thing the mercenary employee says is, well, i'll just go work somewhere else. And the right answer for a good leader is OK. If got your approach to this business, then you need to go work somewhere else.

I mean, you just did a great test, right? That's a great filter. You are your mercenary.

And you know you were with us when we're up, but you're not with us when we have to take some austerity measures. Is this the end of entitlement across the board tax? I mean, we had an entitlement class.

Everybody thought they could raise A V C fund. Everybody thought they would have a hundred percent I R R because they would just buy N F T and flip cyp to projects that had no released product. And the same with employees. They just thought, I can just keep, you know, raising my salary x amount.

And now IT looks like apple said, everybody comes back to work three days a week, and we don't see a lot of people quitting apple because there may not be another option and maybe a lot of the firings that are occurring. I am taking of camel here. Had top three of their top, like six or seven leaders leave.

I interpreted that as maybe they had really big come packages, and when they did the layoff, they said, you know what, the number two s in these positions can get the job done for a third of the Price. Maybe that's Better for the business. So is this the end of austerity, the end of entitlement?

I think so. Or a lot of IT. There is a great article here are in that was that came out recently about netflix, where netflix, they're finally getting real about their kind of entitled their woke entitled employee problem.

And this is in the new york post. But there is many other newspapers that covered IT basic IT says your netflix tells worker kers to quit if they offended. If you find IT hard to support our content breath, netflix may not be the best place for you, said the memo.

So IT falls. stop.

Yeah, they're a sick of IT. There is not going to put up with that anymore. They're sk of being held hostage by their employees who think that they can kind of muscle the leaders of the company by starting a petition or boycott amp ign every time they want to drive the company a certain. And so I think companies are finally figuring out this is the only way to react to basically being held hostage. If you don't like to quit.

if you don't have seven, a job offers, you know and recruiters calling you constantly because everybody y's on the hydration freeze, well, then maybe people appreciate the contract of I work for you, you give me money, and then everything else is supervise. On that note, did anybody see the Ricky surface fix me? Sure yet.

If it's not netflix.

it's on nefer x, it's unbelievable. I mean, dave shapu, you know, in terms of bravery regard, race was like, i've ready made my money. I'm burning the the whole building down I mean, he went full equal opportunity ist.

And I mean, I think the trans issue became like ten or twenty percent of the of his latest special. So and does seem like the comedians are saying, you know what, we're going to make jokes. We're going make jokes about everybody.

We're not going to buy into this. You can't cancel us. Where are we just onna keep making jokes and we're going to keep making money. And that whole concept that, you know, people are going to be held hostage, I think, is over, independent of what you think of making jokes of metal, various margins, zed, or smaller groups of people chisca.

C something brad set a while back about how mansion save the democratic parties. I think actually the same point there. Yeah and yeah, such a natta ous, right? Winner of jeff pizotti, something very similar lately. When you see that where and try to blame billionaire for the inflation and business was having none of IT. He said, no, listen, it's not because of us or our companies because you printed too much money and joe by and he imagine saved you from yourself because that would have been another fortran lion of spending on top of all the other trillions of spending that we had last year. So it's absolutely the case that that if the administration was left his own devices member, they were counting back in december, they were touting the idea that this fortune to build backwater spending would somehow be the cure to inflation.

Imagine if they had pour that s to twenty percent inflation. We cy you like a serious currency issue? No.

just make a partisan point here. And there's a serious economics point here. learning. I hope our policymakers learn from this, which is what happened over the last couple of years.

We had ten trillion dollars of money printing, right? Why they do that? They thought that they could stimulate our way out of this covered recession that they had induced with lockdowns in the event.

The point is they thought they could stimulate economic tivy by printing money. And maybe cyndi ally politically, they thought they would be good for them in the mid terms. What actually happened that ten trillion goes in the economy, but there's no corresponding increase in the output of goods and services.

So two things happen. First, Price VS rise and we get inflation. And second, we can asset bubble in the stock market.

And then the way both those things sort of come crashing down to earth is the fed looks at this inflation and suddenly has a jack of interest rates that pops the asset bubble. IT vaporized is something like fourteen percent of global wealth. And then simultaneous ly workers feel a lot, or because their wages have been capital with inflation.

So this whole idea that you can just print money as a way to create wealth and prosperity, I hope all you take away from this, I think recession that were going into is that is not a variable strategy. The only thing that creates wealth in a society is the output of goods, services that people want. And you just can't try to sort of play games with that by creating phantom this sort of thing of money that doesn't represent a real increase in good services .

of productivity. Yeah it's hard for people not to take this all as partisan. If you just look at the objective facts, the last two administrations have printed money like drunken sellers, and it's a mess right now.

So you you can divorce e yourself from any conception that this is partisan. Trump spend to ship tuna money, and so did biden. And who's more qualified than trump and biden? You on BIOS, the people appear on this podcast.

We have much more of a pulse on what's happening in the actual real economy and an entrepreneurship and capital allocating than these people. And I love the fact that now you know BIOS is a ship poster. He just doesn't get he doesn't care and think we're having like an honest discussion now, right?

One one of the areas where I don't think you long get enough credit is when he explains marc economics. I think he actually really understands what an economy is. Mean, an economy is basically a trading system for the production of goods and services.

If you were to go to the point he's made, if you were to go to a desert island and somebody just gives you a billion dollars when you're sitting there on that island, you can buy anything. IT doesn't make you wealthier. What makes you wealthier is the production of goods and services that people want.

And that's ultimately what an economy is. money. Is this the accounting system? The dollars is the accounting system. If you start printing lots of money, all you're doing is debasing the accounting system. IT doesn't make anyone, Richard.

And yet the way that conversations around economics really take place, the only thing ever hear about is stimulating demand. You never really hear anything about production. And I mean, this is an old debate that goes back to the thousand nine hundred eighties about your supply side economics. But regards of what you call IT wealth ultimately comes from our capacity to produce goods.

services that people want. It's a great point to not all. This adds up to companies and the government's baLance sheet becoming tighter, a and more efficient.

So the talent division across the industry, perhaps everybody being entitled and getting overpaid, people not wanting to go to work, people who have jobs not wanting to go to the office, all of this seems to have actually reversed in three months. So this medicine we're taking, we stopped eating the bad food, we started working out. We're getting Better sleep. This is going to a turn around for the the companies that take the medicine, the management teams, the capital allocators who do the hard work and sharp their pencils as we talked about, this will all result in a more efficient uh and viBrant economy. Yes, I think for the most part.

I think there's still gonna continue to be examples of folks who basically run themselves into a because they don't want to make the hard decisions that it's going to be more exaggerated in silicon valley because we have a culture of tolerance and we have an economic business model that supports kind of irresponsible decision making and supports poor governance.

You know, I look, i've said this many times, but a fun's job ultimately is to make a very important decision about whether they truly care about generating massive returns or whether the fee income become so meaningful so as to drown out every other incentive that they have. And I think by and large, in silicon valley, if you track all of the increase frequency in fund raising, you can also probably follow those dollars. And they ve generally will be the most poorly run.

They'll be held the leased accountable, and I think those will have the largest negative outcomes. And then instead, if you follow the dollars of the the real practitioners who have disciplined, they look kind of sheep sh and silly for years in the middle rally. But there are the ones that are able to really reset and help some of these few companies really win. And I think that you're going to go through that cycle over the next four, five years.

And so now I think it's super well such much because I have felt at where i've been made to fill silly by some folks who said, why are you asking to do dilation? Why do you want to have a board seat? Why do you want to talk to customers? Why are you asking for month by month?

Revenue made a some economic decision like the idea that over the last four, five years, you optimized for anything except the market beta was kind of dumb, you know? And it's and the worst thing that you could have done in that period was confused alpha and beta. Meaning alpha is what you are able to do because of your discrete skill versus anybody else.

Beta is when just the market goes up. Said differently, you could take any N, B, A player and put them on, uh, a high school basketball team, and they would be the new college player here. Any single one? Okay, that's beta.

yeah. If you don't, can be the M V P, the M, B A. That's alpha. yeah. O OK. And I think that a lot of folks um we're made to feel very silly or you know a downer or a wet blanket um in these last few years who will probably have the last love.

It's been an unbelievable bad to watch the changing of attitudes and the entitlement in fundraising in private markets in the last sixty days, and it's been even more pronounced in the last thirty. I literally have people we talk to last month who had really crazy expectations. They're come down by fifty percent.

They wanted fifty. Now there are twenty five. They didn't want board seats.

Now they are okay with board sheets. Information rights. They were fighting against information rights.

I don't know why that's a hell to die on. Now they're like information rights. Yeah sure. Here's our CFO email. We need to get money in the doors. So um I guess what's the silver lining here? Does seem to me as a great set up right now .

just so let me ask your question. So yeah I got the bread like and then you you're forgetting one other key thing in in the in the race to raise all of this money. What did these folks do? They hire these middle level kids as partners into their venture firms and gave the money to put into companies.

What do these people know? No mentor, i'm not saying IT display ly, i'm just like, what do they know? How do they know how to actually invest? Investing is just not you see that you just say, okay.

I think sounds cool. Yes, there are some of us Younger folks are gonna turn out to be all stars. And there you just like in the N. B, A. And there will be sam that you know proved to be right in the beta. But let me answer Jason's question because you know maybe and on on on the note of optimism, you know in some countries, you know notably china right now, they're doing a lot to prop up a bunch of companies that should be allowed to fail, right? One of the beautiful things about free market capitalism, the creative destruction, the cycle time on creative destruction in this country has never been faster, right?

Make no mistake about IT, if you took money out, evaluation over a billion dollars, okay, last year, you're not that's not a venture capital bet I call IT quash y public, right? You stepped into the bigs and you said, I will deliver this plan. And if you don't deliver the plan, there's not gonna be a lot of tolerance.

There's not gonna a be tolerance for just giving away a bunch of more stock. There's not gonna be tolerance for no course correction, right? Maybe in seed or series a, right?

There's a lot of tolerance because you sign up to a lot of unpredictably, but the level of tolerance that you'll see out of late stage growth investors is going to be a kin to what they do with the public company that runs them off a Cliff. You know how that is. You've bent on the earning calls.

So I think this is going to shine a light on the by vacation that we really have. We call all of this venture capital. But the truth of the matter is serious.

And before is venture, once you're stepping into the bigs and taking money at a billion, two billions, the expectations are different, your access to capital will be different, um the expected course correction will be different, right? But I take that as a um I take IT as a sign of strength that we're going to a work through this. We're going to have you know the private markets are absolutely going to go through a reset, but we'll get through and the winner will win in.

Those who failed to course correct in one of ly into the wall will do that and we'll get on with the next generation of incredible entrepreneurs solving big problems. The secular curve of technology solving big problems has never been steeper, right? And the cycles that overlay that secular curve are not suspended.

We have not suspended wars. We have not suspended economic cycle wasn't. So we're going out to get through this one. It's happening in record pace. So .

question about that, which is what's the potential here for more of like A A V shaped recession, where to your point, the markets correct more rapidly and violent than ever. Snap misses of you know issues, a new forecast down forty percent. Um is there possibility that this thing gets resolved and say six months, that's not to say that valuation levels are ever back to where they were, you know in the second of twenty twenty one.

But in six months, could we have sort of done this big reset, washed out a lot of the problems and you again, valuations are not back, but the market the capital market become become unfrozen and we're back to a more Normal Operating environment as supposed to say. Yeah, I supposed to say like more of a you where we're kind of bouncing around the bottom here in this bottle state about eighteen months, um you know and then it's more like a dog on crash. We come out of IT in two years.

I see smart on both sides of this. I here you js lump kins been saying I think this is kind of short, deep, sweet six months reset. Fred Wilson just wrote eighteen months, at least I thinks to qaa saying two years. I mean, I think our instinct is eighteen months, two years. But what do you think the possibility is that we could be in a more Normal environment in six months?

right? So let's let's separate public markets and venture markets because venture markets says, you know, have a sixty twelve months lag just in terms of the reset. But I would say, you know, the futures, a distribution of probable outcomes, there's a downside case, upside case in the base case.

I think the base cases by this fall will have very good evidence, right where inflations roly know. I think IT is rolling over what the fed is likely to do the upward bound on, on interest rates. And I think they'll be at a point where we can start underwriting to the five year average again, make no mistake about IT, the S N.

P and the nasdaq today are still thirty percent above where they were in january of twenty twenty, thirty percent above where they were in january twenty twenty. How much Better is the world today then, where I was in january twenty twenty? I think what the market is saying is that we grow the economy on the ominous basis, about fifteen percent during that time and earnings have about doubled, right? The earnings to margins of those companies are have about doubled.

So you would expect Normal course and trajectory maybe that those companies would be thirty percent more valuable. The problem is as we look ahead to chaos point, the earnings are likely to come down, profit margins are being squeak. So I think there's a decent, decent argument.

There's more pain to come in the public markets that we haven't seen the bottom. However, I do think that the fed is taking a good course here. I don't think that we have run away inflation.

I think that you know we're going to have an investible environment come this fall. However, I think for venture, there's a six to a twelve month leg to that. So I think you've gotta add IT to those six months to really get to the market clearing Prices for all these companies.

But I think it's incoming upon all of us to give really good feedback today. And I see a lot of IT right to entrepreneurs about making that course correction. If they're only turning the plane ten degrees when they see lighting dead ahead, they're making a huge mistake. The differ action by every founder today should be a ninety degree course correction unless they have very good idiosyncratic reason in that business in terms of their are performance to stay .

the course line for the worst .

hope for the best yeah you even by for cate, the companies in private markets to ones that have strong product mark fit and the ones that don't. There is a lot of comes to David's point that we're getting serious bees without product market fit you is one thing to get your series a when you have this like weak product market fit in a great story.

But when you start seeing series bees happening on momentum, it's like that to me is is is going to be impossible to resolve. That company has to go to zero or has to reset or give even give money back to founders. Those are the really the three things I would see as a true bottom, like the really dark moment where people have two or three liquidation preferences. People reset reset comp and tell people, listen, we're going to cut on thirty percent across the board for management if you don't like to leave um and then finally, people saying, you know what, we're going to give the sixty cents on the dollar back to investors. Those are the three things I saw a ing the two downturns.

You're saying something that I think is also important that's not really talked about, which is that there is gonna a lot really good companies with really horrible capital structures, really terrible capta les, really bad valuations, really big overhangs of preference stock that are gonna have to get worked out. And in getting that worked out, going back to a bread, said the person that course correct, ninety degrees will win. And the reason you'll win may not even because they're being that courageous, they're just being less stupid than everybody else quite ha sty because you have to remembering most of these markets over the last four, five years, we funded four or five versions of every imaginable company.

right? And there's going to be two winners, Sandy and thirty percent .

yeah and and they're really, really going to be one winner and then there's going to be a marginal second kind of also around that captured some value and everybody else is not that valuable. And you know that's roughly been true. But the reason we were able to support that was that every company look kind of interesting.

Anyone with traction um could be no competed against because the only differentiator at the time was very cheap money that was effectively free and I was flowing in you know faster than new account. So all of that has to get sorted out. So I just think that, that those dynamic shouldn't be ignored. And so you know, again.

I work too. I mean, to the thing we were saying, it's hard work for a board and founders to do this. But what choice do you have?

You get much more .

sophisticated markets like the debt markets, which I would say are much more sophisticated. Okay, cut through liquid convenience. When you see the people that make the money, two things are true.

Number one is their incredibly sharp ae boat in. Number two is they make money in moments like this, right? If you look at Apollos great returns or black stones great returns or serez, you know these folks were the you know they really were the barbari ans at the gates.

And they made all the money in moments of trudi's location. If you apply that construct here, you know we've never had to go through a period where there are some real terms and conditions attached to the incremental dollar. Um and I think that if that does come to pass in silicon valley, you're just gonna have a recording. And I think that that what I really do is just sort out the winners and the losers and IT will sort out the folks that were able to get to default close to default alive, at least default life support.

Sax, default is .

default. I like they want to. I mean, sex made a great tweet.

He basis says, not default lidell, investible or not. And that's an even finer filter. Well.

deal alive is fantastic if you can get there. Basically, this means casual positive. I mean, all default t alive means is that your casual positive or you're gonna casual positive based on the money you have? You don't need money.

Exactly, you don't need money. Well, of course that's the best place to be is you don't need money. But I think you know for early stage companies, that's almost impossible. Standard, you know, that takes time to get to the point in casa positive. So therefore, I was trying propose a standard that I thought was more actionable for founders because IT, because I wasn't impossible.

And I call a defauts festival, which is here, the metrics that you need, at least I can tell you what they are in the sass world, know, here's what great matrix look like. Here's what good metrix look like. Here's some danger zone matrix.

And you need, you know, out of the five key metrics, you really need three or four great ones in one or two good ones to raise this environment and no dangerous matrix. And if you don't have those, you need to give yourself the time to fix the problems in your business to get to those matrix. Um on that note, you know the coria had a really good chart um called survival the quickest that illustrates this concept of giving yourself time and I threw in the chat.

But basically what IT show is there's a Green line in an orange line. The Green line is the company that realizes in may of twenty two that we've gone into a very different environment and they slashed the burn and half and they based if double their runway and then there's the other company that just keeps going along the same path they are at until they realized a way to second. And then some point in the future, they realized been to changed, then make a small cut to make another small t cut, and they're always behind the a ball.

And i've seen this so many times before that the company doesn't make cuts until they are force to. And so they never really linked in the runway. And then when they finally do make the cuts, go into a desperate al .

on die now there over the atlantic, and there's not a fuel to get to a landing trip and plunge into the cold ocean and die found .

is really have to think about the assembly of the rest of that they face, right, which is, let's say, that you cut too much and the environment is Better than you think it's going to be. Well, you can always hire back. I I promise you'll be able to hire back, okay, but on the other end, if you don't count enough and the situation is worse than you think, then you just die. So you this is why any gross said only the paranoid survive. You've got a think about the downside risk and be more rescued towards the bad scenario then through the wal thinking, scary .

survived.

Just just one final point here, you know, because we have all these decks play around now by venture capitalists telling founders to go make these really tough decisions. Being a little self reflective. Where were we all six months ago? Where were we in october when we were putting more money in and they were hiring like crazy?

Where were we in november? right? I remember some of the conversations that we were having, but I look, I posted in in chat layoffs.

Dot F, Y, I, right? The number one company on that list get here. Sqa company, okay. Are they making a course correction? You bet you, as they are, there are land of forty five hundred people, fifteen percent of the workforce.

The second company on that list, lace work, an ultimate software company that's doing terrific, growing hundreds of percent, laying off three hundred people, twenty percent right? A ninety degrees. Turn up the plane, right? That company will never need cash again.

But it's not just flying toward the lightning. They're making the tough decisions because that's what leaders do in businesses that are even good businesses. There are a lot of companies that are ship businesses that should be on this list, but they're bumbling along and not making the tough decisions.

We need need venture capitalism that instead of, you know this be in a popularity contest, venture capitalists need to look inside as well and say, what about our firm didn't didn't work, right? Why weren't we issuing these course corrections and telling people to tap the breaks a little bit when we knew markets were overheated last year, right? And so I think this there's a lot of responsibility that sets on both sides of the table. But i'm you know there are seven hundred and fourteen startups on this list. By the time we're done, they're gonna at least three thousand startups on.

say, zero.

That's another reason I say the fed is getting what IT s right. This labor market is, uh you know was cooling down very quickly, at least in silicon. Well, I mean.

in the fact that people felt like they didn't need to take a job and they could live off credit and they would always be jobs for them, I think people are onna have to rethink, like, can I be unemployed forever? And, you know, do I need to take my career seriously doing to pay down my debt? Do I need to have a baLanced baLance sheet? Do I need to my personal baLance sheet needs to be in order as well. I think that's what individual workers need to think about.

Yeah I mean brads right that they're certain ly enough blame to go around in the ecosystem. And a VC bought into these froth evaluation levels last year to some degree, were all gilled by by the fed. And these low straight policies, I wrote my post about burn multiple and how to measure capital efficiency two years ago was getting a lot more retweet now than I did back then.

But, but luck, I do VC have himself reflecting to do IT definitely. But, you know, i'm seeing a lot of tweet going around basic saying, like people objecting to this advice on the grounds you'll hear something like if you VC wanted us to Operate more efficiently, then you should have invested more efficiently. If you wanted us to be disciplined, you should have been more disciplined in your investing.

And to me, that's kind of missing the point is kind of cutting off your nose despite your face. The reason we're giving this advice is because we just want our companies to survive. And when we've been, we don't want a zero.

We've been through multiple downs yclad. And the truth of matter is unless you've been in the business world for over fourteen years, you've never been through a down cycle. I mean, that means that you know no founder under the age of what like thirty six has even seen a downy cle before. They don't know what I can be like when you go into a two year nuclear problem.

They probably weren't the pilots at that time anyway. So it's more like people who are forty, forty five have the scarred issue because they .

were in the pilot c total. So the reason you're hearing all these, these all of a sudden, say, get more. This is mainly because we've seen this movie before, and we also run out of money and die.

You can safely short, if you could, the stock of all of these random peanut gallery CEO tweet their disdain on twitter.

If you're right to be a right .

index hindered down fixing stuff, just write that company to zero.

Yeah just turn your fuck in twitter. And and just started. We would be remastered if we didn't talk about, at least for last segment, about the tragedy in u vd. Uvalde, texas, uh, eighty miles west santa ono tuesday, nineteen elementary kids, two adults were murdered um how are .

we going to talk about this without losing a shit?

It's really hard. I think maybe the road map not like to give this a lot of thought.

I was like, why why is this first segment on the market changing along on fucked and life support for now in ten minutes? And I think part of IT is because none of us can talk about this without losing our cool.

It's really hard. And but I do think we did good work to month. I was thinking about the good work we did in the episode of robi wade. And we actually came to point where we said, you know, here are the extreme positions. And then you were like a way to second.

I found the data point, I found this state point, and we actually figured out, hey, eighty percent of people want this definition of abortion in the united states. So I throw IT to you to month, you know, where all outrage were frustrated. But maybe we could start there.

Is there a consensus of what could be accomplished here that you've come to? I've started to think about A A whole bunch but you we're all outraged. We could all your own scream here but a path ford is where .

my mind goes i'll just tell you what I what I um had been thinking about I, this is just a random stream of conscious ness。 I think that the democrats will not make any progress because they try to make this unfortunately A A moral virtue signal issue. Republicans will not make any progress because they become sort of very binary, add absolutes about constitutional rights in the interpretation of their right in a very specific way.

Um the truth is in the middle, you know, if you go back before you talk about you veli um patent john n. John, who is the kid that shot up at tops supermarket in buffalo, killed him in a black shoppers. Lived in a state where there was a red flag law.

For those that don't understand what red flag laws are, David, you know, eat some stuff about IT as war. But essentially IT allows a community member or family member or school uh, teacher or a police officer to essentially put um a restraining order around an individual that they think could cause harm and use that as a way to conflate their weapons. People have talked about red flag laughs being possible while he lived in a state.

The kid was, you know, put under a cycle, you know, a year ago, and IT IT all just falls through the cracks. Now, you know, ted crews are, somebody else said, let's spend ten billion dollars and only have one door into a school and put an armed guard there. Well, then you find out that you've wall, you know, double their security spend.

Over the last two or three years, they actually had a person that mayor may not have just kind of like step to the sides or something to let them in. The police, according to the a ap, showed up and stood around for forty minutes before they were able to actually breach the school. You know, so much so that the quote in the ap article was that there was a parent that tried to get other parents to for for forty minutes.

They were standing there. You know, in california you have you know very restrictive measures um but we've had you know in ember dinner or other places, we've had mass shooting here as well because the guns can just get transported across state lines and there's no real way to stop this. The n array I find out, just so if you guys are interested, mitt romney took thirteen point six million dollars on the, this is the moral finger wagging of the republican side, who, you know, last time I checked, as a multi cty millionaire, somehow still need to take thirteen million dollars on these folks.

Rich bird took seven million. Roy blunt, four point five million. Town tillis, four point four million. Correspondences, four million. Mark rubio, three point three million.

There's no effective counter lobby that says, how about we have a more moderate and restrained rogun set of rights and field candidates on the left and the right that could Jason find this middle ground? And so, you know, were in this two or three day period, IT seems like where folks will get extreme and then nothing will happen. Here is one thing that I think we can all agree as well.

If you look at the underlying family situation of all of these mass shooters, there is a really disturbing theme that I think is worth putting out there. These are all university Young men, eighteen, nineteen, eight years old. They come from broken families.

This individual salvatore ramos um father was absent uh accord again, according to the times in the world, journalists, red mother, inter mate and drug use issues lived with the grandmother bullet. Their unemployed barely graduated, if graduated all in high school um they harbor these depressions towards women or minority groups. Um they then project a lot of their frustration.

They were bullied potentially in high school growing up and all of the they were posting all kinds of very chAllenge in content. You know apparently this kid had one tiktok of where he SAT in a car with a dead cat in a paper bag. You know, he would post on instagram of assam rifles, and nothing happens.

So I just think that we have to acknowledge that there's a complete failure of our politicians. And at this point, I think they should all be replaced writ large. Every single one.

Nobody has added value to the solution. Nobody has really try to figure this out. But then also like parents have to do something incrementally more from the perspective of the community because these kids are going to school with our kids and that the .

reflects are there. The reflects are there.

So just one last and I I said bright, I said to my kids, when you interact with your friends, I just want you to understand when you're on social media, you can carrot this content. I hope you never like either scared or embarrassed or unsure enough to just show somebody when this stuff is happening so that you can let somebody with a little bit more and judge may try to figure out what to do with anything at all. Um but these communities are completely fAiling um these kids as well.

But do you have some .

bad I would say that um every fucking country on the planet has kids with mental health disorders, but not every country on the planet has kids getting shot up in schools and supermarkets in churches. That is a unique feature of the system that we accept this the system we created, right? I'm not against gun.

You guys know I took my kids to a shooting range last weekend, but the idea that we let, you know, assault weapons be sold in this country with no background checks, that we let a salt White rifles be sold in this country with no limits on magazine sizes, that you can just replace magazines, it's total insanity, right? So I think this is a country that does a lot to self help, but we are not self helping here after the assassination attempt of ronal reagon. Amazingly, republicans found their voice and they said, let's have an assault ban on assault weapons, or let's have a ban on assault weapons that expired.

And we as A, I asked my analyst, I said, plot the number of shootings since the expiration of that ban and it's terrifying yeah and IT should be something that we just like don't accept like the middle ground Jason, I saw what you tweet. There is an obvious middle ground. So there's about whether it's background checks that Steve here, I mean, he's gone viral feeling in the same way we all feel.

But there are also technical solutions. Why the hell do we let assault weapons? Why why not put gambling device on these weapons so that you can't fire them in schools and churches if somebody says that's a breach of their second amended right?

I'm sorry, i'm also not to allow you to drive into the school yard with nuclear material. There are some rational limits we can agree to. So I don't think this is a partisan thing at this point in time.

Nobody is saying, you know, ban all guns, right? In fact, I I, I think there's a plurality among gun owners, they too. What reasonable limitations on these things, which are killing machines, not hunting machines, sex?

Any thoughts on this?

Yeah, I mean, I saw, I think, for looking for solutions. I think these red flag laws and building on them is is the way to go. Um the problem with with background checks and and i'm not against them.

I mean, i've gone through bacon checks to get my guns and i'm in favorite of them, but they wouldn't have done anything to stop the router they did in. I mean, the buffalo shooter was in new york. Y've got the tougher gun control laws in the nation.

The background checked didn't stop him getting the gun because he bought IT lovely and have a criminal record. So you know, IT doesn't that by itself isn't going to do IT. So I think where these red five laws are useful is that we've seen with these all these school shooters, they have a summer kind of profile, right? They are disturbed Young man like in there who are still school age eighty and nineteen. Really point is exactly now this shooter in the uvula, I mean the reports coming out now that he had been cutting his face, that a he had aimed to bb gona people, so he was clearly idiot towards the idea of shooting people. He had posted a violent FAnnies basic of mash shootings on social media, and he told his class mates he wanted to kill him.

I mean, there's almost always .

a call for helping with the buffo shooting. The people who these like psychos go to school with are the least surprised. They all know because these people have been warning, they've been saying that they're gonna do IT.

So I think we have this problem of, we've got these Young psychotic people. And I think the reason why IT happens Young is when somehow they get into adult hood, whatever this mental illness we've got basically takes old and they snap that they become psychotic. And IT doesn't take long for them to act on those fine, those violent fancy.

So the simple solution here, I think, is to prevent those people from getting guns. You know, if you threaten mass violence, you shouldn't able to get a gun. And know I persons don't think that's an a bridge menu secondment rights because, look, felons can't get guns either.

If you commit a felony, you can't get a gone. These people have to committed a felony. Yeah, but I don't want to wait until they do if if they have these kinds of red flags against them, then there should be a way to file to basically get a protective order.

Don't let twelve your old drive cars. We don't let them drink beer because we don't want twelve year old's drunk driving, right? And then at some point, there is a licensing that occurs. I think a lot of this is framing. I think this is once again very analogous to this abortion issue, where most people are pro choice and want restrictions on abortion where they don't occur after a certain number weeks, just like you're up got to and I was just know I dating on this and I think we're placing the nra to your your point of math. They have funded people. They become a key funding source for a lot of folks and they're they've been overfunded themselves um what if we had americans for reasonable gun safety and we have this organization raised a tone of money and they just outbid the ra for republicans and for people who are against background checks and .

we just good question. But look, my bloomers started every town for gun control after new town and I did IT hasn't really had, I think, the impact that that we wanted.

I mean, I think part of IT is actually what you said. So let me just give you my my little for four bullet points here. You don't have you react. You are right that people are absolutely no abortion, you know, no restrictions and no guns, or no restrictions on guns, background checks we all agree on, make them in more intense and make them proportional to the calibre of the weapon.

If you want one of these weapons, why don't we have you go through a training course? So for a pistol, you you got a two hour train course for in A R fifteen or something that's more powerful. How about an eight hours le or four hours? Then you could actually see the red flags emerge.

And would somebody who has this red flag issue go through that the red flag law should be national and they should be very strong? And then finally, what if we introduced insurance for certain classes of weapons? Not all? If you want to get to, right, you know, to go hunting or a pistol for soft defence, maybe you don't need to have insurance, or maybe you have one you don't need to have insurance, but what you get to high calibre, once you get to having clipsed that are a certain size, what if we just had some basic insurance? Because that would force then somebody to underwrite the danger of that weapon.

I mean, look, that the trick here is to figure out a system that has the least possible impact on law biting americans. So maybe a few thousand of of these mentally, highly mentally disturb Young men. But like I said, their schools know who they are.

Yeah right. And what we need is a process where, you know, that doesn't turn into the no fly list, where obviously everybody's on IT or training or or content moderation or something like that. This is the look, this is what the eras afraid of, is that you create a red flag process, and all of a sudden thousands or millions people could be on IT, right?

So you need a, but that's not true because you had, you had this kid who could have been put on IT in in new york.

He wasn't right. No, no, no. Look, I think need I need to figure out how do you create process around this? And I think I think if a school they know, I mean, you get multiple affidavits from a teacher should be put on the list.

The problem isn't that .

kids aren't identity because, as you say, David, they're hiding in plane side in these schools. The problem is that there is no mechanism or incentive for any of these kids, parents, educators, teachers, community members, to do something about IT because they don't know what that something is. And this is where these kids are left to faster, faster, faster.

And and and IT boils over. And it's all of us that have to pay a collective Price. David.

even worse that to maths, because in the buffo case, the buffo shooter was referred to for psychiatric evaluation because they thought he did have this, and then they released him, released after the weekend.

and then he got the go.

So he should have been put on a red flag less. And I should have .

been the end of IT and and atabalipa federal database, the R A fights, too.

I also want to say something about this technology companies. There is an explicit decision that technology companies can make to be able to review content from certain kinds of accounts and start to build a cluster and a distribution of risk IT is possible. I have build one for one of these company is so don't tell me it's not and I I will not tolerate some non technical person telling me it's not possible.

IT absolutely possible. And these technology companies should have a mechanism to be able to say, you know what? Here are these thousand accounts, David, in the united states, of these thousand individuals that you know are sort of getting to a red line here.

Yes, and wine, whatever.

But it's it's also it's it's not just going to be what they post on social media. It's although in both cases, buffo and you've all they both posted that they were going to do what they did. But in addition to that.

a bread chrome and is an early .

warning system.

Warning system is a great idea.

You have all that the cops were called out multiple time for violent disturbances, you know and and you combine that with what he's telling people in the schools and what he's posting on social media. There's identifiable profile here. It's not one red flag .

is multiple red. These corporate social media companies need to take off all of this for profit focus. That's extreme at this point.

Be willing to degrade margins to hire the tens of thousands of people to manually review content. okay? There should be a mechanism that allows these folks to plug into some system that law enforcement can use.

There is an early warning system that can be built layer human review before this stuff gets out of control, David, to control people's individual civil liberties OK. But that is a big step for from where we are today, which is nothing. There is zero leadership in america.

Can one question, David, you correctly pointed out, I think it's A T that we can't penalises people who are legally getting guns or create too much friction for that. I understand that. Would you consider training or insurance and just take each one individually for high capacity, these deadly assault rifles, would you consider what would you consider each of those in of realistic, you know, having some basic training, a four hour training class, I me like you do for, like you should do for driving a car. Should we have their first salt rifles?

And then should insurance be required? What training does is prevent accidental shootings. Okay, that's right.

I'm not against training. I love training. I do training.

But but look, what training and what training .

prevents is excel shootings buffo and evolving. And all these school shootings, they're not excel shootings. They're going out to close many people's possible and they know how to use these weapons.

I mean, the problem is. Is what their objectives are. So I don't think training solves IT. Well.

let me ask you this. If you are in training for four hours and you're an instructor and you were training to look for red flags and IT is in friction from this person going and buying and doing the next day, wouldn't that help? And then going to have to buy insurance.

the buffo shooter case, this this grocery store for like four months. I mean, they are patient, they are methodical and how they go to, I think so, but we don't even initiated ily need that filter jackup because I just telling you that the profiles of these psychic s it's so dramatic when you go back and look, I mean, again, multiple red flags are killing animals. The point bb guns at theyve been the cops called out on them.

They're posted on social media. Their classmates are all terrified of them. Their own families are terrified of them. Now we just need to, basically, we need an incentive to trim's point for schools, I think, to create these profiles and file the right forms, the affidavits in the data.

Now, do insurance for high capacity assad rifles would you be in of and you think it's a viable well.

IT means you would have to apply and say.

hey, i'm jasie colicky, i'm eighteen years old. I'm in the school. I would like to apply to own N A R fifteen and then some insurance can say, okay, your eighteen years told you're a mal, you live in texas, your bills going to be six hundred dollars year for the Scott okay, you're a forty five year old malin y. ommen. Your bell is going to be a hundred dollars for this because we've done some actual tables on the actual risk.

Would you be in sure? I think the key to solving this problem is to create the minimum disruption on law in americans s million who like I look, I don't know what that would do exactly. I want to stop the basically that I think what are a relatively small number of psychos, Young psychos? Maybe there's only a few hundred or few thousand sort of candidates in the entire country. I I don't want to wait for them to become fends to basically from .

the and by the way, there there is a bunch of. Study about this. There's been a lot of social science studies about the individuals that own guns legally and those individuals that sort of break and committees crimes. And whether we want to admitted or not, there is a definable architect. IT starts with gender than their social economic conditions, than there is.

you know, home, family conditions.

These are notable things. These can be built into a combination of softer and human review. And we need to create incentives so that these kids can get some kind of help or intervention. And the worst cases, we kind of, you know, do something with them in a way that helps us protect everybody else, because.

sorry, dinner, but we do this every day. We turned this country on its head. After september eleven, we started profiling everybody.

And this axis, like minimum standard of disrupting other people's lives, the department of homeland security disrupted everybody's lives. Take off your shoes. Go to the security before you get on a plane.

We changed everything in months because we said we're under attack, but there were under attack by a foreign presence. A foreign terrorist presence here were under attack by sick kids who need help, okay, but we need to disrupt our lives. We need to change things, right in order to save.

These innocent kids are being shot up in schools where they're supposed to be safe. And so I agree, let's profile them. Let's get these companies doing their jobs, helping us identify these kids, get these kids help. But we need to raise the volume and raise the urgency and dc the way we did after september eleven, two thousand and one that this is a national crisis as opposed to going back to the Normal right distribution here by the way.

after two thousand and eleven um I was on a no fly list and I I think i've told you guys this story before but I would have the triple s on my boarding pass for years until about two thousand and seven or two thousand eight um constantly profiled you know um put in the backroom the whole nine yard but in the end you know, did did you make me feel kind of like less than a lot of other people? Yes but did I do IT because uh, I think he was the on the broad strokes the right thing to do.

Yeah, so you would take a little friction.

And so, you know, if I needed to basically turn over all my kids, you know, social media, or there is a mechanism where, you know, as much as we try to teach your kids, we know all of these other things that that allow us to make a socially progressive society.

If the guidance council also set around and ask kids anonymous y hey, is there anybody in your class you think needs your help? Why don't you do that too? Um there is there is friction because that that I think we are all willing to take because the counter factual is too horrible to bear. And this is an example of one of those things.

Would you be in favor of insurance and training to month? I don't.

I don't. I think these are good ideas. okay? I don't think they will curb the issue. I do think what David said is right. There's a level of evil or mental illness in these people that cause them to be incredibly methodical, and I think that we shouldn't underestimate.

So they would get to the insurance Green and they get .

to the training screen. Well, I think, I think, you know, look, there's a lot of people that drive cars without insurance, right? You can drive off work and I can be insured, you know. So I think that those are good ideas, Jason. Where IT will falter is we have a political system where the primaries for both sides are dict by the linus ten percent of the left .

in the right. Yes.

IT makes practical gun control like abortion an impossible task, unless we completely turn our political class upside down on both sides of the oil. Okay, so I think these are good ideas. But in the meantime, I think parents have to do something because nobody's coming to our aid.

And I think this the most important thing we can do is just say the truth out loud. There is an identifiable archetype of these. We prove these kids.

No O T the politicians .

who are making this about lawful gun ownership, they're not helping. They're actually hurting because you're activating millions of americans who laugh ly owned guns and believe in the second amendment to oppose reasonable measures like i'm saying, hyper targeted measures like these red flag laws, right? And so if we make the whole issue about gun ownership in general, you're not going to get any reasonable changes.

You might opposite the sales, the cells go up every time we have this happen.

My kids, and i'm sure you're kids as well, have now um gone through multiple active shooter drills in our school yeah but at no point have my kids been SAT down and taught some of the warning signs, fellow classmates and a mechanism to raise their hand and say, you know what, this is actually really worried here. They don't have that training.

They do have training on how to lock the door, how to flip a desk, how to go into a closet, which is a horrible thing to have to teach a child. But if we're already there, I just say take the extra step and teach the kids because they're living on instagram in tiktok every day. They see their friends and there, you know, classmates every day.

And we need to start figuring out an early warning system because what is happening continues to happen. These politicians are ineffective. They do nothing to help parents.

right? true. I like the early warning system because you're right, like there. So first, all that, the red flag laws or something that's done on a state by state basis, something like nineteen states have red flag laws, including new york.

But I didn't work in new york with the buffalo shooter because no one, no one used the system. Not only has the federal, I just think that people actually policy, I think people have to use the system. So you had in the buffo shooter, the kid was referred for psychic c treatment, and they stood in red flag on that as bunkers.

So people have to, the school systems have to learn how to use these laws. We end so to the mass point. We in early warning system, we need that translating into red flags. I go on so once record and then they can buy guns after that is is really simple, at least maybe they turn thirty or something. Um I mean, it's it's the problem is that about a half the states or a half this mechanism and then the half that do aren't using IT effectively enough.

I just shared with you guys a chart the the the the most predacious part of this debate, and I think this is a very solid debate we had here. So thank you to the gentle man for all participating in IT. Um is every time we have one of is gn sell Spike.

If you look at the charter in the europe times that you share the nick, you can you can share on the youtube channel h two million guns in the january after obama's is real election. In the Sandy OK shooting, we, he hit peak guns. Obviously, during korona virus, people got scared and bottle bunch of guns. After september eleven, they bottle like guns. But these moments are sadly going to drive because that.

because all the conversation is about being in guns and what we should be doing is preventing psychos from getting guns.

Known psychos, reasonable gun control .

increased by fifty percent in the last ten years. The last ten years have been the safest ten years in our lifetime. Yet for some reason, people feel the need to ARM themselves more and more and more.

Now, I, as an immigrant to this country, except the rules of the country that I come to, there is a constitution. There is a second amendment. I respect people's rights to own gun. I've held a gun. why? Once in my life, I had a panic attack and I had to put IT down. I had so it's not for me okay um but I respect you are right to have them um I think that we need to teach people how to think about the precursors before they get the hole of .

these things really sadly, what's killing our kids IT turns out I just put A I just put a tweet in the chat for go to take a look at new world journal medicine. Massive uptick. Uh now gun debt um combined it's orgone debt includes gangs, include suicide um and includes mass shootings um but firearm related deaths and injuries now exceeds motor vehicle crashes and so does obo. So we have a crisis after .

new england journal medicine, just to be very honest. It's not it's not necessarily only about kids because they included eighteen and one nine year olds in natural. So those are adults.

okay, Young adults and kids um and so drug overdoses and fire arms later are spiking massively.

This is my point about having this debate. This is being armed by the by the left and then the right as well. Hold on, IT doesn't include eighteen and and then everybody gets caught in that absolutely the shooting.

these shootings are being done by people one thousand and nine. But putting on all this aside, I I just want to make a bigger point about our children in the last two years. With this cover, the Spike occur r dn code of drug overdoses and firearm. So there is a lot of suicide in here as well. So we should think holistically about, you know, how kids are dying.

I D one of the thing to that, which is we have plenty of gun laws on the books that aren't enforced right now in servers co. You can't get chase of dean to enforce a gun charge. He A A Young kid name kelvin, who got killed because his his killer, a guy named zi, a Young, he was arrested weeks before on gun charges and chased everything. Just let him go and in, uh, L. A, with gas gone, he dropped all gun enhancements to change and .

the process .

the prosecutors, you aren't even prosecuting the golden laws we got on the book that's got a.

and ted cruz thinks this is about the back door being unlocked. I mean, the stupidity across the board, left, right? Everybody in between.

The confidence is stunning. And IT has to stop. Yeah.

a jack, I look, I mean, if you make this about people's lawful gun otherness, we're going to oppose what you want to do with. There has to be .

some incremental controls. Don't you be great?

There has to be some of the controls are basically preventing known cycles from getting weapons OK.

So you want to focus on that. To be clear, gun control for you, background checks or anything or just on checks. I just want to be clear, red flag laws and background checks are good.

I know we have to rap. I think the consensus was around red flag. There's a known profile to mah articulated at well.

David, I don't think we help the cause to build the consensus by calling a six, sixteen year year old kids struggling with self identity a cycle. And because their their kids who live all around this, this isn't about lecture. This is about building consensus.

I think we can profile those folks. They clearly have psychotic, uh, uh, uh, chAllenges, right? But there is intervention to help these kids.

I know a lot of kids who Frankly had chAllenges during high school who turned out to be great, great human beings. So these are kids at a very vulnerable age. We should profile them within the community social network, should help us identify these folks, and we should get him help. And I think you can build a reasonable consensus around that.

Yeah, I agree to explain myself when I use the word psychotic, referred to the the ones who actually became shooters. You i'm referring to those ones. You're right that if you're talking about people who have been done anything yet, who are mentally ill, yes, we should get them help.

So I mean, mentally illness, this and this goes to help care as well. We should have national mental health services available freely to every american. We are in a mental health crisis between covet and just modern life and suicide is becoming the number one cause of death sadly for many um demographics now, including our kids.

And so while we do a great job making cars safer and creating life saving drugs and and emergency rooms and and medical tension has got ten unbelievable. And we're making all these you know, great advances, mental health. We're not making the advances we need.

I'm so so, so sorry, all those .

family yeah and this is .

just hard breaking.

I get emotional yeah very but I am just so .

sorry for all those people dealing .

with a heartbreaking ah yeah heart breaking. Let's take some action here. Enough thoughts, empires. Let's actually come up with a fucking plan.

And just for years I put up with its starry for the indignity, it's okay. I said a, my honest perspectives. St, there is a clustering and a technology component to this that can meaningfully help.

And we need to start knowing that there are these patterns. We need to say the words out loud. There are patterns for these school shooters, for these mass shooters.

Those patterns can be written down. They had been written down. And we need to do something about that. They need to be codified in some form of algorithms. And if we were, talk her kids how to duck and hide, I think we can also teach your kids how to raise your hand well before they need to learn to duckin.

I identify who's being bullied into your points math about being profile if we profile somebody and they're not a macos candidate, but they're just depressed or they're being bullied, well, that's work that will they take decision help as well. So there's no downside of profound and somebody who struggling, you're profiling them with the intent of getting them help. So let's just profile the kids who are struggling, profile them for good and you'll get some, you know.

who's struggling a poor. My point is that you actually they're being bully.

They're gonna probably be struggling. I mean, you know, the kids getting .

old psychographic and demographic profiles of the ninety nine percent of the cases that we've seen over the last two decades and all am encouraging politicians and technology companies to do is come together, create some standard.

You know the downside side, what's the downs? None.

zero have mechanisms like this, by the way, where um you know these technology companies already do these kinds of profiles on other kinds of situations. You know typically you need a physical a request to other kinds of like legal interventions in order to unlock this data. But it's not as if this is uh you know antithetical to what they do in other situations.

They certainly do IT for fraud and advertising.

not as if the technological powders of these companies cannot be applied to A K means clustering of this issue. okay? Just so simple machine learning context like this .

is they put a lot effort into finding click fraud, right? This is gonna very similar problem.

Problem ah. We don't allow angry Young men who have been emAiling with the middle ast, who are citizens of this country, who have been posted online, that they want to run a plane into a building to go get their pilots license right. We profile them after september eleven than we said, no moss and all trout the sane is, use your fucking common sense, identify these folks that we know are struggling to need help and britain to list and say they can't buy an assault weapon.

period. right? Everybody, it's time to go. Uh, thank you a to a right son for sitting in thanks again to the dictator to my pi hopital a and h thanks sacks and thanks to everybody who spoke at the all in some MIT would be um releasing all of the videos.

Freeway will be back next week as well the hammer lucky explosive episodes to look for a great week of all in content. Next week, we'll see all next time. 拜拜。

great.

man.

We open sources to the fans and .

just got crazy with.

We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy, because like like sexual attention that need to review some what your B.

B, your b be.

Good way to get merges are 努力。

努力。