E90: Twitter subpoenas, market overview, Pelosi's Taiwan visit & more
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Just a couple questions before we kick up OK. So it's what I told you before. It's bad bitch.

Ck, okay, it's fix early. I've been through a lot sex right now, but i'm still fluid. okay.

Is everybody back up in the building? sex? It's been a minute. Tell me how you're 英文 because i'm about to get into my feelings， how you feel and act how you feel right now.

What language are you speaking right now like .

you call the hip hop x you right? Remember what you had at your .

fifty years when you know and you said and he said big and your good dancing to beep.

delete that .

delete tech. Let's start executing the industrial with jack instate when he says something .

that we just because I taking back by power, I was a therapy the other day and they told me to take back by power in.

but he apparently reads the comment section because he knew freebody that you, on the episode last week, a big time I was, I thought you IT was .

big freedman energy.

And I honestly do not like the competitive nature of the show. I think IT makes us all hate each other, and it's not good dynamic. We should just fucking do the show with each other.

I know, but the point is your performance after I threatened .

to if the show has gone .

up yeah totally.

The fact that i'm even still here is winning so how jack.

I thinks he can throw the fire freeburg it's like the generate staple center of think he's going to be Brown because he played orly .

in a game is a motivation technique. I got the best out of them. I like Michael Jordan.

He's my Dennis rod. You're like the hot dog deal or OK now he's like the Brown James.

You're the hot dog. I do not install ke these comments.

We are to the fans and .

just got crazy.

Everybody, welcome to the all in pod with us again. A David freeburg took a break from playing his tray video cat game. Sax is here in his deposition.

Apparently you just want to see this look .

at the size of the apparently playing. no. So by asking David sex, would you like to tell us about what you're holding in your hand?

yeah. okay. So I got this sepia from twitter. This is a non party seppa for.

didn't twitter sepa your tweet?

Yes, you begin to that. This is a peut I. The public, they are, these networks have walked, lifted, billing them, apply two thousand dollars an hour to sapin, ut, tweet or public bra. Brilliant strategy. But this is called a sepa for production of business records in an action painting outside california. I so i'm not a party to the last, at least not suing me because I have no involved in this thing, but they sent me the broadest ever seen a like thirty pages of request. And now I got to hire a lawyer to go quashed thing because they basically want any my communications with any of my friends of the last six months.

It's insane. So can you just explain to the audience to us, like this is a court in the court is basically allowing the lawyers to demand that you hand over these communications.

Is that right? Yeah, but I had a chance to fight IT yet. So now at my own expense, I got to hire a lawyer and go to fight IT.

This is a ridiculous overbroad sa peine. By the way, i'm not even involved in this thing. I'm just a comment or on twitter. Um I don't have any let me to save walked lift a lot of time right now. I'm not in possession of non public information about this.

And yeah, the crazier thing is, yeah, like you mentioned, they cite my tweet as as an exhibit here and they say they want all documents, communications concerning your statement in a tweet dated April sixteenth that the quote, new twitter CEO checklist includes eliminate all bots and fire useless employees fifty percent question mark so obviously didn't like that a your statement in a tweet dated April twenty fifth crazy thought, what have jack master minding the whole thing your statement in a tweet data joy eighteenth that quote Randy simply one hundred accounts a day is not a serious effort uh and or your statements in any other tweet concerning the merger blaw blog, let me just save them time right now. I don't have documents and communications concerning my tweet. Now I know to a lawyer at Walker lipton that looking at my tweet and how brilliant they are, you may that I have extensive documentation and source material for them.

Let me tell you what happened. I went to go take a ship, and I based tweet off the cuff, and that's how that tweet ended up in the public record. There are no documents in questions concerning my tweet.

And this idea that somehow, I guess, what they are trying to get that is that somehow I was tweet on behalf of someone or at someone's behave, not true. Go look well, before this year at my public tweet and blogs about the topic of free speech. I've been a critic of twitters for a long time on the issue of free speech.

I've written a um a content moderation poli written about what I think a context moderation policy for a social network that cares about free speech should be in all these post on medium going back years now you know was a critic of twitter throwing Donald trump s off the platform. So these views that I publicly stated are the reside stated them as there just my views and there is nothing more nefer ious or something behind them other than that. And they're just I think they're just trying up chasa there that there is no there there. So talk is one question .

before during this movement that you .

had and you compose the tweet. Is the any documentation of the movement? no. But you know.

next time that I compose a tweet on the can, I will document IT thirdly, and I will send the lars of to lift.

What happens if you don't respond in twenty years?

I know, I know. I I mean, now hired a lawyer by the different people. Understand, you may think that because of my position in business or something, that these things happen all the time.

They don't. I've been maybe suppered like three times in my entire career and the and i've never been separated in my capacity, an individual. So it's been in connection with the company, and I don't think i've got one of these and over five years. So this this does not happen that often. And these guys are totally chasing its straws and IT leaves me to believe that they're wasting my time and twitter's .

money .

and money and twitter should have rain in their lawyers because i'm sure racking up a fortune legal .

fees IT sounds like um sax the case is that they're trying to make that ellan used his network of friends to help wash away the deal because he didn't like the Price anymore and had his friends, you know tweet about bots, another stuff to support his case for killing the deal because he would like the Price. And they are trying to see if any communications that he specifically said he didn't like the Price.

Yeah, he looked they all in addition, in my tweet, they want all my documents and corresponds related to my appearance on magan Kelly, my appearance on the world cane podcast and no other media parents that i've done. Look, you know, I had no corporation with elon before appearing on any of those shows.

I just went on those shows and say what I think I mean, look, it's not like i'm a guy who doesn't have hot takes every single week on various issues. You know, we have been doing this podcast for years. I've been tweet for years.

I'm just a commentator on this. I have i've never been a position of non public information, and i've eated my takes based on the public information has been available about this dispute. Now, you know, after I appeared, for example, in wilkin, remember elon tweet in support of my appearance, but there was no coordination before I appeared or after, for that matter, he just like the appearance.

yeah. So this is me spouting off, doing what i've been doing on this pod and tweet for years now. I can understand if maybe they're trying to read something into IT they're on a fishing expedition. But i've just told .

you think the the whole thing is just such an enormous waste of time. Get into court to judicis the thing and and move on. I was reading .

um yesterday the guy who follows the delhi ware courts pretty closely. He had a bunch of commentary and if he mimic some of the stuff or or the judge apparently on the case said some stuff about preserving the integrity, the court meaning that the interpretation people are making is that ultimately they don't want to the court is unlikely to try force the merger because if the merger then doesn't get consumated, IT damages the reputation of the court ability, uh, to make enforcement action. Therefore, it's more likely that they just impose .

a fine but what is the enforcement action is? I don't, I don't know. We should ask somebody to force the most.

No, but force? You want to buy twitter. But what does that mean? force?

I don't know about that. Okay, all I know is that this discovery request is overly broad. It's suffishent expedition harassment of me is onna cost me time and money to get rid of this thing. I didn't do anything to deserve IT a prompt this I wasn't part of the transaction. I just wasn't um and i've never have and i've never said anything in real guards the transaction that should lead anyone to believe that am in possession of non public information yeah so this is harassment is punitive and the fact that they're citing my tweet in which I criticize .

twitters management it's is petty and .

verdict yeah I agreed legal .

rams I probably good luck.

No five five or six years ago I approach twitter about what I would have called a friendly activist myself and another large fund. And the reality is there's a lot of data that sits uh in the public domain that you can use to get a very clear view of twitter advantages and disadvantages.

And so you know, all of these issues that twitter is dealing with has been known for a long time to people that spend any time analyzing the stocks, comparing each other, social media stocks. So I just don't understand what all of this is about. The end of the day, a person that had a point of view has changed their mind. Get to the bottom of what that person thinks. But going on these broad fishing expedition, I think, is just really stupid.

And then what was told lundell cipo for? I mean, he just appear being a ss at the old summit so so that just shows you how silly this is too because elon, we didn't interview the four of us interviewed elon at the all in summit uh, in miami back in was a may is when do we do that? Yeah yeah um so elon appeared, but he dialed in by a zoo.

It's not like he was walking around the hallways, bumping into people and talking like there was he did not communicate with anybody else at the summer. He was a guess by a zoom. So if you want to know the communications that we had, just go watch that public recording of us interviewing you on. There's just again, there's no need for this fishing expedition.

guys. This is, this is the record. For the longest amount of time in his life, jacal has not spoken. So I want, I want to acknowledge this moment.

and we can afford fact. Did you do any prep work for the interview with elon while you were in the commode .

in the work I shown up, I shown up.

You guys .

member, oh my.

go see. And you guys know what to do all in some twenty twenty two come, twenty three come.

I need one of.

I actually want to have free birk stands, create an event honoring him, and i'm not appear there .

is the keynote be solution sult of science?

Actually, I really thank you. J the .

sum .

first. First I blame twitter executives.

then I blame you. I think you could put, listen, if we do another all in summer, maybe it's profitable and .

say lego bls, I can I just say like as a user.

just as a user OK come 这 the .

bot issue is really real。 Like how many accounts are there which have like twenty or thirty followers that just spew vial either positive or negative constantly every time you tweet anything IT makes tweet impossible. I used to be an order and user of twitter, and I think in the last year, IT has become exceptionally unusual. wow. And they should just fix they should fix that product quality problem.

In fairness to sacks, he did pay ten dollars per account to have those created to droll your replies. But IT is true if you I always screen shot that I look at who was like rome replies and inevitably IT is um a six months old account with that following a hundred people and has no followers or five followers and IT has like some, you know .

why me? It's not just at the end of the name. Every time you say something, every time I say something, it's like every other comment is about the stock.

It's about cricket thing that they want you to put on. And so, you know, this last month, i've started to experiment with turning comments off, and it's been the best because I can still communicate out. IT gets the same reach.

Millions of people will see what I have to say, but I don't have to deal. And all the other people that follow me theoretic dick for useful information, don't have to deal with all the bulls shift that comes with IT. Here you a real problem on that platform that needs to get fixed.

Here's a thing, it's easily fixed ble because if you go to link in or facebook or instagram, you don't see this. So if if the other platforms can figure IT out across many different companies, it's not like they're some secrets ossia. You just have to put up you a couple of reasonable gates and and have some reasonable reporting and take a little friction out. And people will not be able to create bots on mass.

I know problem in the really days of the ukraine war, when I tweet out my, on my contrary opinion .

is my non consent .

opinions .

on the ukraine.

Yeah, when you would go click on those accounts, you would see that they were accounts created that month, zero followers, zero following, and, uh, they are brand new accounts without in the history. And they were all tween the same thing, accusing me of being devil chAmberlain IT was all put in talking point to whatever so no, I think particularly when you speak out against the current thing, there's yeah you know an organized effort to try and drown you out and but look the washington post at a story about this, that ukraine was really good at what they called strategic communications, this call that propaganda. But then, yeah, look, there is absolutely a problem.

Now, a playbook. If you know, if you guys saw there's zx, neither recut of justice league. Supposedly there were bot armies that put the pressure on one of brothers to release his cut of that movie, and that he might have in some way been involved with the institution.

And IT actually drove commerce. They gave him the whatever, thirty forty million dollars to reach up the film. Uh, all right, let's talk about market since that's what everybody um really comes here for.

Looks like inflation is finally maybe getting a little push back. Gas and oil is way down. Big win for americans and obviously the administration the clearly is an upper bound to how much people will pay for a gallon of gasoline.

Consumption is actually going down, which is interesting. Humans pretty adaptable there. jobs. And we've talked about this every month as we watch IT finally dipped under her eleven million a sex uh predicted, you know were going to shed three or four hundred thousand jobs IT seems every month, uh, which should take this uh you know ten seven million number over the next year downtown a maybe five or six, which would still a an unbelievable number. So put us at very robust full employment, which has .

been a big a number of of open job, the number of job. Rex, I went down by something like half a million and one month it's been going .

down three or four hundred. So it's it's kind of been pretty consistent, but there's clearly something going on here. And the stock market, interestingly, um we've started to see a little bump or even cyp out um which the most speculative of all assets, I guess big coin bounced as well, you know hitting twenty two, twenty three now. so.

What do you think triumph about markets? We you we may have called the bottom ah here on the program a couple of months ago and uh I started j trading three weeks ago based on our discussions here thinking we're bouncing along the bottom of the head. Fake right?

I think at the time initially I think I said, you know IT rally around four thousand. I was a little of rally. What rallies before that? The S M P. Probably gets to forty, two hundred, forty, three hundred. Look, it's always important for .

twenty to forty, fifty today.

Yeah, it's always important for my perspectives to just take the other side and just intellectual debate with oneself why the other side could be right. So in at this point right now, what people would say is, okay, the feds gna capital late at the beginning part of twenty twenty three, we have a pretty clear forecasts for all the rate increases that have to happen.

Everybody's doing the work that's necessary either raising Prices, cutting costs or doing both, letting people go at, at, at, at. So maybe we we were there. okay.

So what's the other side of that? Well, I think again, as i've said that before, the other side starts with energy. And the reason why I think it's important is that he really is the conflation of an economic system and a political system using an instrument. And if you look inside of what's happening in europe, there's a lot of complexity here that I think me to get impact. So for example, couple days ago, the french government basically said that they're going to start producing less nuclear energy.

And you say, well, why would they do that? But IT turns up because, you know, the temperatures are so high, you cannot use the water to cool these nuclear reactors because the the existing water is then so hot that would actually destroy the ecosystem of the lakes and rivers that they use to feed natural fresh water in to cool the nuclear second, because it's so hot, all the rivers are below their natural level. Bargees that Carry coal and that gas are getting stuck on the denial.

The poll, which is the longest of in italy that feeds all the fields, actually can is below the level. Work can actually off, you know, off of the water. So farmers can basically do what they need to do to produce the supply.

So if you play all of that out, you start to see an issue where by, you know, tober november of this year, we're back into the same complexity where energy is the tip of the spear, around which everybody starts to debate all of the national security issues that we have to deal with. The ukraine war, thirty, thirty. So I don't know.

I mean, you know you've been a lot of money this year by basically doing the following, which is the exact opposite of everybody else. When everybody else was freaking out, had you bought, you would have made a lot of money. Now everybody is is like it's over.

And you can tell that by looking at the vicks, which is the voltage we're about to get into the high teens, you have systematically IT has been true that when the fix is in the teens, you tend to basically buy volatility, which is essentially you get shorts stocks. And when the fix is in the thirties, you tend to basically solve voluntier ity and you buy equities because we've hit the body. If you have been doing that for the last year, you've made a turn of money. So there you have that I really don't know what's going to happen from here, but um I tend to think things still have to get a lot worse to flush everything to the system.

Everybody will don't know the vx is the tech or symbol that you can look up yourself a for the cbo is volatility index measures the stock markets expectation of volatility based on the S M P indexes options trading. If you look at oil sacks, um we are now down to uh, eighty seven bucks for a barrel. Haven't been here since gosh looks like yeah february maybe. And so and gas Prices pluming something going well in this regard.

What are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, it's that particular commodities is coming down. I still think we have a big inflation problem.

I hi I guess .

production stepping up. I me no response. Higher Prices, people increase .

production and the Prices. No, no, the crazy that thing about this whole thing with biden was that go back, came back, and they basically ally that we can increase like six hundred thousand is a day. But the only two countries that are able to do IT, where I think we and sauty and the total number barrels is about one hundred thousand. So with all the bus, all the .

actually because the interest rate increases are actually having an effect, these rate increases are like chemotherapy. You know, it's on the economy.

The gas demand is lower than the summer of twenty twenty in the middle dependent.

Yeah, yeah, you're right. So the commodity Prices are reflecting expectations that the economy is slowing .

down and more demand massively down equals, hey, who we wanted get people to buy this commodity IT will lower the Prices to hold. The same thing is happening a little bit with groceries, and we'll see what happens with travel homes also spectacularly falling down in Price and the inventory spiking as well. So you're take here, unpacked the seventy five basis point increase in the team of that you were going down that road will .

be to speech to this rally in the market for a second because I think there was a really interesting chart that flip left on showed at that go to summer that we talked about on this part a few months ago. And I put on the screen, and I put in the chat. What IT basically shows is that is that during you protracted bear markets, you can still get substantial berek ker rallies.

And so during the two thousand and two thousand one a 点 com crash， you had these plus thirty two percent, plus forty one percent, plus forty five percent ralles. But even while the market as a whole was going down, and so they ended up being sort of soccer reales. Now I don't know if that is what's happening here, but IT is a possibility, one interpretation.

Sex of this could be people are picking the winning stocks while the losers continue to loose and that's what's causing this you know, jackie edge or the the dead count, dead cat bounce, as they say, which is what was seeing in a lot of public companies, right? You're watching. But uber oba shareholder had a massive print and other companies have been doing equally as well, apple included.

I think two things happened last week. One is there are a number of companies are reported a good earnings and I think even more importantly, has strong forecasts. So that helped. And I think he was just there was so much pessimism and negativity that just companies reporting decreases that worn as bad as people are expecting created some room to move up.

But the other thing that that drove the rally is that the fed made these comments on the heels that thirty five base point rate increase that we were close to neutral. And so the market seem to get really optimistic that we wouldn't get much more in the in the way of rate increases. Maybe they're fifty based point rate increase towards the end of the year, which will bring the fed funds rate up to about the two year bond rate.

So the idea was we're close to neutral and markets really reacted to that. The think about that is though that I think what what power and what the fed says today about rates is well, less important than what the inflation data will actually show in a few months. If we still have nine percent inflation three months or now, then I don't think the rate increases are done. So at the end of the day, I think that the data here can be a lot more important than what the fed says because certainly, the fed has said a lot of things over the past couple years that turned out not to be true.

You would agree they seem to be doing something correctly with the seventy five pips, you know. And taking IT a little more seriously is having an impact.

I'll say again, i've set IT now five pods. And we've never seen a moment in history american where when C. P. I has printed successively above ve, five percent, that I got under five percent without fed funds getting to that same number. So we should all hope that this is the exception that proves the rule. But there is an enormous amount of data that would tell you that we have to take rates to double what the equilibrium rate is. Got to be right?

There was no print in August. They take the month of August after they could do an emergency print and then they're expecting fifty or seventy five bibs in september. If they do that sax to fifty.

I think fifty is the expectation for september. But look, I think it's appropriate now after all, the way increase we've done to take a pause. They're gna get two full months now of inflation data before the september fed meeting. I think it's appropriate to do let the economy digestive rate increases and see where at and let's see where the next two months inflation print is and then that i'll .

determine what happens next freeburg. Based on all this, uh, what's your outlook for the economy?

I think there's more we all try and be predictive based on the current set of conditions in the world. And there are a number of conditions in the world that the switch could flip very quickly. And there is enough of those trigger ing events right now that um the probability of any one or any set of them happening in the next couple of months is probably pretty high.

You can talk to Better on the show few weeks ago that it's like a bunch of tortuous sticking their head out of the shell. And you know there's a few that might pop out here. There's obviously A A massive problem with getting gas to western europe for this winter.

There is an emerging problem with food insecurity in africa, south asia, around the world. There, uh, is obviously continuing escalating conflict in eastern europe. This nto situation, mayor may not help. The taiwan visit.

mayor may not help. Is IT exciting? yeah.

I mean, I think, you know, sweden and what not joining nato is okay. It's going to be viewed as provocator .

and you know IT IT could .

not make things cooler and common over there but make them more test. I mean, we view IT as a security issue, but IT really is a conflict description issue. And um and then I think that there are emerging markets problems.

You know argentina is facing sixty percent inflation. Brazil has a criminal as the president right now and he has said publicly in the last couple of days, he will not leave office if he loses the election because the election is fraudulent. And if that happens, then you could see massive civil unrest.

He's been encouraging the population and result to go to the streets and fight back. And there are a number of these flash points. And by the way, that's a massive uh you know uh food supplier as well as a massive uh holding in em credit portfolios around the world.

Um U S. Consumer credit is a problem. Uh you know we just had the largest number of new credit card account opens since two thousand and eight in q two from the new york feed report yesterday. All of these things are painting as pictures of potential flash points for what could quickly become wild fires or brush fires that spread very quickly in market and could escalate some of the consideration.

So I don't feel like I look around and say everything is good, where in a good place, there are some indications that some of these deflationary considerations and concerns we may have had in the way that markets are behaving right now gives us a pause, gives us a recipe, makes us feel okay. But there are also a lot of things that could go wrong, and any one of those things could be a trigger ing point. So I always think in terms of probability, there's a how much of low probability things.

But when you have enough low probability things, the probability that something in the set is triggered becomes high. That's where, I kind of say, looked. The probability of something being a flash point for us this year is high.

I also still think that globally, we are very prime for conflict right now. And we feel like and are hoping that the russia, ukraine thing resolves. But there are other points of escalation.

Look at what's happening with policy. Visiting taiwan, everyone that you know even well informed by scratching their heads saying what the heck is going on here. There is currently indulgence in conflict. And I think that indulgence will um you know cause more harm than good, uh, particularly for these financial markets that we're commenting on right now in the months ahead. So um look, you know like i've always said, i'm not gonna one of time markets.

It's like tra time social behavior like who's gonna say some word first, I don't know the answer in a in a population of people, you know you can kind of guess how people have, but markets are the output, the manifestation of social behavior and the timing. Market is very difficult. I think you can do a good job analyzing businesses and the quality of businesses and how they will perform over time.

I don't think that anyone over time can do a good job timing markets. And I think that there's a lot of these things that could really shift anyone's perspective on what you believe right now very happily in another direction. This on any one of these uh.

things happening after you feel the world is, uh, as doctor do here way i'm not being negative.

I'm just pointing out that there no set of things that could flip things other way.

right? So slightly physician here, but you pay a pretty art picture of, hey, there's all these tipping points around the world, Timothy. You feel like this is how the world works.

There's always a bunch of potential tipping point is always going to be worse, sadly. And there's always going to be countries are that are dealing with dictators or insolvency, especially in frontier markets and emerging markets. Or is this chaos you know really acute and and people should be uh you know anxious and in a panic?

I think both of you guys are right. Like there's always stuff going on in markets and markets represent the collective sum of our wishes and expectations and also the realities. This is why I think for me at least, the way that I progress this information is not trying to have an opinion, any one of those things, because I just I find IT too hard and I don't have enough depth of understanding of any of those things for me.

And i'd rather go back to the historical trends because those I find a little bit easier to pass. And whether any of those things are true and train for inflation right now or not, can they turn that really, Jason? Talking some, oh, okay, no problem. I A little.

no problem. The second helicopter is replacing the first helicopter .

because in out the helicopter are switching on the helper.

I mean, IT takes a team to part.

So so so the the the real problem is that like if I go back to the historical artifacts, have there been issues in the past the way that you know um free berg described? absolutely. So this is why I think you can look at the fact that whenever there's inflation and whenever IT Spike this, what has had to happen by the fed is you have to take rates above that key, five percent I shed when C P, S.

Above five percent, to break enough demand so that the economies we said, and I think that's where we are. So instead of trying to figure out whether you know, I mean, the the brazil thing has an example that the freeze that is crazy like he's basically, you know, he said publicly in a first release, the army is on my side and is ready to help me. You know, keep in saying just a crazy think. So what are you supposed to do.

fighters to take to the streets?

So what you? So what are you supposed to do? In my opinion? I like, you know what a versions of brazil has happened before. I don't know enough history, quite honestly, to know the specifics of what happened then and how that could transit to now.

And I don't want spend the time understanding what's going to happen in brazil, right? I'd rather just say there are twenty or thirty things that could very much complicate the world economy. I think the reality is that governments need to flush all this excess money out of the system so that we can really find out what equal dream demand is and get back to Normal.

There's also, by the way, A A really important trench, a math unlike that, I think, is playing out. And we will play out for the next decade on the globalization. So as the U. S.

Tries to build its own semiconductor manufacturing capacity, as china loses key trade partners, as all of these markets stop trading with each other and start to build redundancy, there is a massive longer range economic effect of globalization. Globalization enables efficient pricing. IT enables labor and energy and everything to be done know to go to the cheapest source.

That's the way globalization is benefit IT is we've been able to get cheap energy and cheap labor in overseas markets to do work for us. And as a result, we've got an access to cheap product. So when you d globalize, you end up having to pay more for labor, more for energy. You have to build infrastructure, and the Price for .

everything goes up. We've sent this on the pod for two years. Now that era of cheaper, faster, Better is over. And what comes with that is Better national security. But the cost of that Better national security is higher Prices.

Higher Prices, let's growth.

And there's nothing that we can do to avoid that. I'm not sure agree with the less growth. I actually think that there's enough slack to be absorbed by all of this free money that I think you can still have sustained growth, but IT will come with higher interest rates and higher inflation and higher input costs.

Everybody will have to do their part to absorb some of this, but that's what's going to happen. And I think we should just deal with the medicine as quickly as possible. This is why the people actually think that the that should be very aggressive and get this cover with quickly.

I suspect on the margins are right. The problem is they don't want to look at the historical artifact because the sort cover fact would say they wait. I need to use interest rates by another two hundred fifty basis points. That's just way too disruptive for what the world is ready to, to hear right now. So we're going to incrementally plot along. And I think what freeburg says is right, which is that there's going to be a welcome all that emerges that's gonna tilt the markets then the consumer credit will employ, that's gonna the markets, enjoy your bulla will Carry take over brazil battle took the markets and will go back to this inflationary, fragmented d globalized view of the world that just Frankly takes higher interest rates .

to Normal and sex or bring you this I mean counter to freeze x point. The counter obviously would be, hey, we will have less dependency on dictators like putin juicing, paying nbs eeta and that would be great for humanity and we'd have resiliency in our supply chain ah and you know the west now becoming unified, say what you will about the nature, membership and the timing of IT.

It's probably a great thing that the west is saying, hey, we are going to get together as a group. I think you would degree and stand against dictators invading other countries. And if everybody pays their fair share to be part of nata.

which is just not what that's .

not that well.

I mean, no, that is not, but would be intellection honest everybody. We all at the first part and just have nobody talked about that second part. And the only person who inner was is josh holly. Who is you not exactly my favorite person in the role, but maybe sex wants to comment was the only one that actually said, which is probably the fair thing which chasing you are saying is part of the deal that is not party should be part of the deal.

I am think that should be part of the deal. And for people who miss what we said there, the united tes spends three and a half percent of our GDP on military. Other places in nato might be spending one or two percent, and we're trying to get them all to two percent to be a little closer to.

And then this, obviously trip to taiwan strengthen ing our relationship with that country. But at what cost and why are we doing IT now, uh, all come into play here. So do you actually think that this trick .

to time I want actually strengthened our relationship time on, did we come out with the deal for you said at s and see all the sudden said in way?

I'm curious, well, because they are. I mean, did you not see their statements and giving policy awards? And they, I want very much, wants to strengthen their relationship with the west, that is their goal.

They want to strengthen in the west. They want the protection of us. So yes, and hold IT don't shank in our relationship with. I want the question is, does IT provoke china? And was IT necessary at this point in time in history when the world does feel like a it's a little bit of powder.

Cat, no. But so six months from now, and all the fruits, vegetables have been embargo and not to wan. And then the sand that allows to make chips continues enough low. Do you think that those still be positive about the trip?

Well, say, I mean, let's go to sex. He likes .

to come on this thing. So .

everything I say.

well, I mean, look, once IT came out that poli was going to wan, china threatened her in the U. S. in.

You can go. Obviously, we couldn't back down from that because we can't let china dictate which of our officials can go to taiwan. So at that point, we had to back her play.

And you saw that everybody from fox news to twenty five republican centers gone on board. Okay, but here's the issue. The real issue is, should he even have been going? I think this trip was self indulgent.

IT was reckless. SHE was told by the, by administration, don't go. This is not the right time.

This is a sensitive time. The the C, C, P, got their party conference the next couple of months. There was no reason to basically provoke the showdown right now.

And SHE was dismissed what the administration was biden and what the pentagon told her to do because he wanted to make some sort of valid dictor tour to taiwan. So look, Nancy policy does not deserve any credit for this trip. Did we have to defendor once know, once china threatened her? Yes, of course we had to, like I said, back or play.

But this was reckless, and IT was fell dolgin. And I didn't need to happen, you know, IT really makes you wonder, who is calling the shootings administration when policy won't even respect the wishes of a present in her own party? And what is he doing going over there? He saw the sector estate president had .

some questions. Why now?

Why now? I'm the free man had well, because it's all about her making this validator tour before she's gonna and over the gavel look, the democrat going to lose the house in november once he passed the gavel to a new republican speaker. The house I think she'll announcing her retirement surely after that.

So this is all part of her well tour. But IT didn't need to happen in the fact that he did IT in violation of the wishes of a present own party, makes you wonder who's calling the shots over there. And I kind of remind me, you know, a few weeks ago, Gavin new son was over the White house when bine was over in europe, and everyone was speculating.

What's he doing over there? Is he measuring draps measures the drives? So now IT just goes to show, does this administration have control over anything over the members of their own party? Over sixty percent of democrat say they want someone different to run in twenty four. So yes, there is a surface level of consensus and packing of polite. But if you scratch beneath the surface, you see that the trip was unnecessary and in reveals at present who doesn't seem completely in control our foreign .

policy so in a statement um almost univerSally the leadership of the republican ty said for decades to members of the us united states congress, including previous speakers of the house, have traveled to taiwan. This travel is consistent with the united states one china policy to which we are committed. We are also committed now more than never to all elements of the taiwan relations act.

So on china, if you don't know, is that taiwan in china or part of one uh unified uh entity? So the republicans seem to be supporting this in a cynical way. You're saying, or IT is consistent, that other members of the united congress have gone other spices of the house.

I think there is by parson support now to defend I won. I actually think that that is in the car. And I think there is a very high probability that we actually end up in a war with china really this century. Oh yeah, I don't think so. I think I I is the biggest flash point in the world.

I really sad. But explain why you think there's going to be award because I think a lot of people think there's way too much stake here for there to be a war. So there is going to be some sort of negotiate settlement in the house china. So why would you think you do some majority cases? There's going to be a war, really.

You have look at the first fall from the chinese point of view, they view taiwan a secret territory. And four decades now, they have set. In every single meeting, diplomatic meeting with the U.

S. Taiwan is always the number one issue. They are held band on of mainland in china with taiwan. And they would like to do IT peacefully through coercion, if they can. But I think they will do IT military if they must.

And the only question is when they feel that they will be strong enough to basically take the island by force, so that I think the chinese point of view, and I think amErica is increasingly committed to the defensive of time. Wan, so you know, we have contractors statements on this. The the one china policy says that we respect that there's one china, but on the other hand, the taiwan relations act commits us to help in the defense of taiwan. So we have a country policy on this. But if you really.

as does I would degree, china has flip up on this. And it's only last hundred years that they really considered a taiwan strategy they didn't care about to two hundred years ago. They we're gonna. This is worthless.

You guys do what taiwan was part of china until eighteen ninety five when japan took IT from them.

They didn't want IT at that time. That's the other thing they were like. This is worthless reality.

We don't care and is extremely important strategically. If you want to understand why, I think you need to look at this map. Yes, no.

I think that that was really interesting, all that up, actually, that is a really interesting discussion because two hundred years, they didn't care. And then like the second, if you're going to be worse with the west and japan's going to be democracy, we do actually have something to stay here.

We d like that island back. The island chain strategy was originally created by john Foster dollars. This, one of the secretary stayed, I think, under eyes and hour, who was one of the initial architects of our containment policy against the union, but also came with this idea of how we would contain china in east asia.

And the basic idea is that china is surrounded by a series of violence and change. The first island chain goes down from the southern tip, japan to oka, OA to taiwan, to, I think there's some islands in the south trying to see the slightly islands got the north west tip, the Philippines. That's the first island chain. Second island chain goes out to by the eastern part of the Philippines. No vian .

arms all the way down.

I think the second island chain includes, you know, goes down to indonesia. And then I think there's even a third island chain that includes gumm, although gram actually might be in the second where somewhere around there. So have we fortified american base? So the idea is, if you want to bottle up and contain china, you do IT by controlling these island chains.

And taiwan is really the central one, is sort of divides this east. Trying to see where you've got south korean japan from the south china. See where you've got vietnam and malaysia.

We decided between vietnam in japan, it's literally if you were to draw center line of china's coastal access that is in.

So the bottom line is this, if you want to pursue a policy of containment against china, you really want to control these ireland chains. Another way to think about IT is that these islands are unsigned, able aircraft Carriers. They allow amErica to project power six thousand miles away into the paci. c. That's how we saw during war two, as we had all these island hoping battles, and as we took these islands, they would then become a runway for the next stage of to project american power to get all the way to to japan.

So you know, if you believe that we're headed for, or already are, in cold war two with china, and I think we are, I think china is really a political threat, not russia, the way that you will contain china and keep them boil up is to have these islands in the american alliance screen very hard for china, which is now building a huge blue water. Navy has actually more ships. The united states, so mean very hard for them to project their power all over the world if they are contained about up and have to watch their own back.

What one note on the number .

of .

ships is they have a lot of small ships. The tony wise, we have much more, tony. And if you were to look, you know, even the perfect set up, as you explained through these islands is very similar tonnato. And the um what's happening with russia, you know we have korea, we have japan, uh, we have vietnam, the Philippines, we have an incredible alliance h in this area and that's a great thing for amErica and and taiwan obviously is a jump ball here, but this is a set up for china. You know.

having this is what you think about the repercussions of her visit. So C A T O which is test less because battery supplier basically you know delay the amount ment of a of a factory. It's not clear whether they are going to put IT into the united states.

They may actually pick a city in mexico. But what the decision that was supposed to happen now is now been deleted to september, october. There is a bunch of, you know, there is all of these crazy military drills that happened. Was IT all worthy?

I mean, that is the question. And I ask.

why was IT worth IT?

We don't have enough information. I think to know what why this was done now was me is, is IT a freeLance and net polis completely france? Or is there a bigger strategy here is the question is china week now are we trying to send a message to them and and one could equally take the side of the argument that the united states supporting fillin, uh, supporting sween, supporting nato, you know, supporting the ukraine and supporting the acidic is actually the right move here to contain .

the dictators. I I agree, we two people to do that, the president of the secretary state.

well, that would be A A much bigger provocation, I think is the issue. So if you sent the president, that would be a very big provocation.

The time is free monarchial. That tension was pretty explicit that, you know, blinking and buy. And both told her, please stand down.

yeah. The N. S, C. And the john chief s said, please stand down. You are way over your skate here.

And I agree, i've been very public. What is the point of doing this now is the question. We don't have information .

once china try to dictate a policy that he couldn't go. Of course, we had to back her play, but you have to be kind of a fool to fall for this in the first place. This was self indulgent by poli.

Shouldn't need to pick this battle. The administration, as or not to, and look me, could buy some credit here. Biden has the right policy on taiwan, which was stated this way.

He says that we support the status quote and we are against unnerve changes the status quote. We want the united to be a status quote power with respect and force china to be the revisions ous power. And we need to be very careful that we do not come across as the revisions ous power that would give china an excuse. So we wanted to maintain the status code that .

we are our policy next.

We open sources to the fans and .

just got crazy.

We should all just get a room, just have one big huge org because they all like sexual attention, but just. 想到。

Good.

我 一定 只 get 努力 努力。