E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
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Everybody, welcome to episode ninety four of all in this is the summer unprepared episode. There's not much news. We're going to win IT with me again in his a golfing cap the rain man himself. David, sex, you do okay.

but good. Yeah.

i'm kind of .

annoying that we're taping on a wednesday.

Now this is a slow news week.

It's a slow news. Well, that's not why taking on the ones because you have to want to go to burning.

I remember, listen.

everybody has to get burning.

Yeah.

been before the man, really he was .

there on three and thursday.

I ve been a couple of times. I think it's it's a cool experience doing worth doing you know once, twice in your life. It's not I want to do every year, but um I don't know a lot of people do like doing every year. They are like really into IT. I'm not really into IT that way, but I think he was a worthwhile experience .

to go at least once.

Have you been no for break?

If you've been.

i've not been. No.

I have no design. I don't like .

driving in the car for a long period time.

And well, by the way, i'll tell you, i'll tell you why I don't really have a huge desire to go. I, uh, I don't really have a huge desire at this point of my wife to want to do a ton of drugs.

That's not, that's not just about that.

Really.

not really. What is really about is art.

Are we joking right now?

It's if you like art and like music, it's amazing. It's amazing. I I really like her.

I think I actually collect phenomenal. And in fact, I like to go to, like, freeze the viana.

IT would blow your mother. No, no, no. You have no idea. The scale of the art there is tremendous. IT is extradited interview into music.

And can we just call IT what IT is? IT started out as a festival that did celebrate art and creativity ah and over time became mass market. And in order to become mass market, there is still an element of that.

But it's a huge party and I think people should just be more onest that super fund. You can really rage for a weekend or for the entire week and people should enjoy themselves. But let's not like have to put all these labelled of a how like intellectually superior is and how you feel like bush in. I know people doing really it's OK. It's going to go and do drugs.

Think that's interesting about IT is it's really about community. A large number people get together. They build to drug the city.

You've never been literally. That's not the vibe there. The vibe is really dancing and creativity and art and community.

But I like A V, it's everybody.

I mean, sure.

I mean with an .

on no might be those experiences .

are the best when you're sober, you to understand the going to E D C. Soo have .

never been to. There's a great filter here, which is you've got to drive six, seven hours into the desert and you have to survive. You have to bring everything with you and bring everything out.

You know, whatever IT is, the bathroom, water, food and IT is harsh. I mean, it's one hundred plus degrees in the day and it's forty degrees at night. It's not easy to survive.

It's hard. I used to be that way. When I went, when I went, I went with a bunch of guys who had the whole thing like wired, and they, these youth, and I was like a whole community, and they had like running water in a kitchen at basically clamping IT was clamping.

There are people that hard to survive. No, there, I mean, it's hard to do. There are people who clap IT is hard to do that because you have to do.

You have to go, people to go, people who know what you're doing and are highly organize. So yes, they they spent the whole year, whatever setting up and that was really elaborate. And then there was an article like in the newer times basically saying that you know that they were ruining burning man because they're making IT too nice.

That was part of.

I want .

to wrote you, you hey, man, great time sex. Thanks for you, burning man.

We source to the fans .

and got.

I don't know if you've been following the nf t story cure that up as our next story, open sea, the marketplace, the ebay of nfs, if you will. The volume has dropped ninety nine percent since may, first peak of four hundred six million dollars in a single day. On August twenty eight, volume drop to around five million dollars, down ninety nine percent according to decentralize APP tracker dep reader.

And on a monthly basis, open seas volume has dropped ninety percent according to dune and lid's. The flow Price of a board a has now dropped by fifty three percent. Uh if you remember open sy raised three hundred million at a thirteen point three billion valuation december twenty twenty one um in around LED by koto.

And to put that in perspective, that was nine four months ago. My how the world has changed. Faber, we should take on N, F, I, A, A lot .

of bubble species is just another one.

I thought we going .

to stop doing stock market crashing stories.

Well, this is a different, this is a different market. What do you think do you invest .

in month of this story, which is film of blink? Aslan crashed 呀。

this one. See the question I have here, sax, as do you think that this is the end of the category though? You think this a category ending? And you think there was ever anything interesting here? Because you took you heard a lot of pitches like I did for how nf, we're going to change everything.

I I like this to the point. Um just a tie back to what we just talked about at the end of the. You know, I think i've said this is the past, but like, what difference? Renting ates humans from all other species on earth is our ability to tell, to communicate and tell stories, a stories like a narrative about something that doesn't exist.

And by telling that narrative, if you can create collective belief in something, and then that collective belief drives behavioral change and action in the world, right? I mean, everything from religion to government, to money, to art is all kind of driven. All markets are driven by this notion of narrative and collective belief that arises from that negative.

So when you go to an art dealer and you have a sit down with an artificer, you might appreciate the art, but then the narrative begins, and the narrative is this artist at this, and they came from this, and the artist that looks like this created at six point eight million. And this artist is only creating for three point two million. And the whole narrative takes you away into, okay, I should pay three point two million for this piece of art, and ultimately it'll be worth more.

And that's the fundamental premise of mark, is you're buying into something not necessarily always. And this is such a minority. Now scary used to be that you don't a piece of a business or a productive asset, you pull cash out of IT.

Hopefully, you get more cash out then you put in when you buy IT. Nowadays, markets allowed you to trade. Therefore, the majority of marketing decisions are driven by if I buy something for x, i'm going to be able to sell to someone for why.

And so the narrative is driven around i'm paying that someone also pay right down the road. I'll make money from that. And this has been repeated a thousand times over.

It's been repeated in the I. C. O. tokens. It's been repeated in the two of bubble. It's been repeated in every art market and subsidy of every art markets in spad down of time, as since the door of of markets. And I think the nfs are really just one more kind of example where this beautiful narrative is formed. The digitization of our bit is no different than any other form of assets that we tell ourselves a story around and we convince ourselves that i'm paying something today and someone else will pay something more for me tomorrow.

And I will also say that in the last year, with the liquidity that we saw the last two years, IT leached into the stock market where there is supposed to be more rational behavior that ultimately the cash flows of an asset you're buying should generate more for you than the money you're spending to buy that asset. And ultimately, you can maybe trade out of IT early. But still so much of IT became about, well, the stock is going up.

Therefore, I spend x someone also spend why and i'll make money on the stock with no underlying a searching of what's the productivity of that business? What's the return on cash going to be based on the cash falls coming out of that business over time or any of the fundamentals around IT? And so, so much of our discussion and distortion has really been driven by this narrative fueling. And I think the N F T are an example, but there are many others, and we're gonna many more. As long as humans have the ability to communicate with each other.

I have any A, I think freeburg mostly right. Like, I do think that there is this thing. The the burning man catala example is the best way to describe this.

A lot of these things are the same. But when a few people approach something early, they're too insecure to admit that is the same as something else. And so they spend a lot of time trying to tell you a narrative about why it's totally different.

The buffet example, you know, would be the quote, you know, when I somebody tells you that this time is different, it's probably not that different uh or the other quote that's well worn in history is like, you know things don't necessarily repeat history but they ran all of this is trying to say that other than like fundamental leaps of science, there's not a lot of stuff that's new in the world. You know, we are repeating things over and over. And one of the things we repeat is the social capital that you get from having certain choices and then getting other people to validate those choices because you want to feel like your, you know, worthwhile.

And this happened in nf, and i'm sure in the first phase of different movements in art, that also happened. It's probably happened in a bunch of other markets as well. So these things are more similar than they are different kela and burning man, the same.

N, F, T. And part of the art market the same. Everybody that runs you with why it's so different, how would just have a Green assault and say, you don't need to be different.

just enjoy IT because you think it's cool, alright, we can go either to this california festival wages story or we can go to golden sax workers are quitting on mass because golden sex is saying you've got to come back to office five days week. Where do you want to go? bus?

I think the california you think is really interesting, just the the three things that california did in the last week, I don't know if you guys saw, but number one is they basically uh said that you know you have they're going to ban ice combustion engines, I think by twenty thirty five. So you have to be battery E V um and they have the new cells. You can still have a new sales are yeah new cells um which is the first in the country to do IT.

And just go back to the second, california is the largest art market, united states. And effectively, you know trump in california got into a huge spat because california had certain emission standards that were tougher than the rest of the united states. And you know, the federal government tried to zoo california and back and fourth, all of this regional.

So california is always sort of light on climate. That was one thing. Then the second thing is they said were going to create, you know, a state sponsored organza to set the minimum wage rates for fast food workers. Paul, what we think about that and then the third thing is that um this congress woman, I think of this assembly person, buffy wicks past of a um through the senate and through the the house that essentially hold social media companies liable for the mental well being and the mental health of kids um and depending on where you lying on all these issues, it's like an interesting kind of lens in which were like california is really become extremely, extremely um legislatively active and basically in imposing their will on free markets in the economy there.

Yeah for people who don't know the the fest food issue was they want to move to a more european and style where instead of unions debating with individual corporations, mcDonalds, burger king, whoever, what they are going to pay their employees, or employees having that discussion one on one, they want the state, some state authority, to pick the amount per hour fast food companies pay.

And then I guess this intermediate, the unions uh IT it's kind of confusing. But interestingly, uh uh our and the in ginza, if you remember she's the one who told elan to you know f off and was A A former a democratic legislature. Uh SHE ensures the bill when he was in the assembly. And so it's kind of a weird approach, a metro. Why the government?

It's it's not dismissing the unions. SHE learning is all this fletch. I guess now she's the former democratic legislature who drove elana the state member, when he said, you know.

if you on now, he works as he received.

yes, and he left a great, great move for the state. So SHE is now running one of the biggest unions. And what he said is that this bill will move california closer to the labor model used in europe, where unions negotiate.

The unions are still negotiating for wages and where conditions, but in an entire sector with some sort of government board rather than company by company. So other words, is too slow to unionize company by company. They always want to united ze entire sectors of the economy.

Now the thing that's really crazy about this minimum ge proposal is that, like you said, Jason IT isn't just that they set a minimum wage. They created a ten percent panel. So there's a new government agency that's going regulate fast food, the fast food industry, you know that not going to a stop him in a wage is can be work conditions.

So now you're turning fast food restaurants into a highly regulated part of the economy. And the weird thing is, is not even just all fast food is basically chains that have more than one hundred fast restaurants nationally. In other words, if you are a local Operator of two mcDonald, you'd be subject to this ten person board.

But if you own twenty restaurants that aren't part of a national chain in california, and you're not. And so the weird thing is that some workers in the fast fit industry could get this new minimum wage of twenty two dollars, where as other workers who work for, you know, that not part of a major chain would get the stayed de man waged fifteen. So it's kind of unfair in that some part of the restaurant industry are being regulated and others aren't.

Is there any justification here that you can think of to not let the free market do .

its thing freeburg?

Well, if you represent the workers, you're saying, hey pm, twenty two dollars and you can. And here's what that points out, that actually points out that is probably a pretty big business flow in a business that so reliant on commodity labor and that business internet itself is not as valuable as you might have thought that was before. Think about IT this way.

There's a company called mcDonald and then there's another company called mcDonald's labor. And what happened before mcDonald's employed people to do work at mcDonald. And maybe what happens in the future is all those people are looking left and looking right there.

Like, you know what? McDonald has nothing without us. We are the business. We deserve the value. So in terms of how much of the value of the business flows to the shareholder of mcDonald, first is the employees that work at mcDonald.

The employees that work at mcDonald y're saying, let's go to a startup and our start up is called union. And our business that's called union is now gone to provide a bunch of services to mcDonald and those services we're gna start to value capture what they're doing. And IT indicates that maybe there's something inherently um disadvantaged in that model.

And IT could be that the argument could be made that business in the early twenty of century um in the late um nineteen century yeah the sixteen century, only twenty century and beyond that you could build a good advantage business because there are such an eager, hungry workforce, people looking for work. You people would come and work for nickle an hour, whatever. And so you, as a business owner, could make a lot of money doing that.

You could sell a product for a dollar, pay people five cents to make IT for you. But nowadays those people are looking left. They're looking right. They're like way the second we are the business or were ninety percent of the value of this business. And so couple of things will happen.

Number one is the inherent business model of a company that so dependent on commodity service, he's gonna be flawed and chAllenge in the twenty first century. And fast food reference aren't to be as valuable. Business is reliant.

Commodity service are not going to be as valuable. Number two, businesses are gona automate. So new businesses will emerge that actually do the fast food work or do the car building work or do the dock loading and unloading work that are automated.

And they'll have an inherent advantage, the economy, and they'll win. And I think number three is that in the near term, consumers will suffer because Prices will go up. Could someone has to pay for the incremental cost of running this unionized business and that will ultimately be the customer of that business?

I'll say the fourth point is I am concerned about this sort of behavior in regulated faces where the government has actually control over the market itself. So this is a good example of this is you know we had um a friend, ryan, from flex more on a few times. But you can just start up a shipping company and have a dog.

The docks are run by the cities and they're run by the state. And so those dogs access to, those dogs access to that market is regulated by the government. So then what happens is the union, right, the the labor company can actually have regulatory capture through the government of a segment of the economy.

And that's where things started to get dangerous. So look, i'm all four unions. If they want to show that a business is reliant on a commodity labor force and commodity service and they all band together and start to start up, I mean, that's what we do. We all start a company yeah going compete. But the issue is then when the government creates regulatory capture over a second of the economy and make IT difficult for the free market, ultimately do its job of either automating or creating a newly advantage business model or all those things that allow .

us to progress automating coming. Uh, couple of us made a bet on a crazy idea of like automated uh, robotic coffee call cafe x, not a truck or on books here. And the company really struggled during the pandemic.

But they have two units. S, F, O trf. They're doing seventy seven, three thousand dollars in two units, less one. And I like, wow the the company figured that out and there's another company doing for tries.

This is this is the sad thing that california doesn't realize. Like I think that the folks writing these laws have just an extremely poor understanding of economics and capitalism um because the first thing that IT does effectively and everybody can understand this is IT caps the profitability of a company right?

Because IT effectively says if you look at an industry that is over earning, then this council will essentially see money that should be reappropriation to employees. Now that idea is not necessarily a bad thing. For example, you see that all the time in technology, right? If you look at the ebit and margins of like big tech and how they've changed, they actually erode ded over time as the companies have had to generate more revenue because employees demand more and more of those gains.

That's an implicit part of how the free market economy works in technology. So you know if you don't feel like you're getting paid well, let you know google, you go to meta and you get paid more and vice versa. So there's a natural effect of people being able to do that in certain markets.

But when you impose a margin and essential ally say you can only make ten percent because arrest of these profits are giving to these folks because i've computed their new way to be something that much greater than what they were paying before. The unfortunate thing is what freedom said, which is that you will rebuild that business without those people, because IT is the rational thing to do. And so unfortunately, what you'll do is you'll take a bunch of people that should be in the economy, but I think about like new immigrants or Young people that are first getting on their feet.

They'll take these jobs. You know, I mean, I have working. I worked at burger king when I was fourteen. And so I got to my first, you, those jobs won't be there to be had, and that has rip effects as these folks get older or try to get more and grain in the economy. And this is what I wish california would understand, is that these things aren't free. And even though they seem like you're coming to someone's rescue, there's all kinds of unintended consequences and very obvious consequences that you're ignoring by not really understanding .

how the economy just like, look, these people I but I mean, you know the people that are elected are elected by the people to represent, the people they're not elected to govern over the long term plan necessarily for the state. And while you think that those who may be the same, the near term incentive in the near term motivation of someone whose voting is, I want to get a benefit for myself sooner rather than later, not necessarily.

I want to make an investment for thirty or forty years down the road. And if you're an individual that struggling in some way, you're gonna a prioritize the former over the latter and you're going to elect someone who's going to go put in place public policy that's gna benefit you. So I don't necessarily raise my hand and say, I blame the people that have been elected. I raise my hand and I said, look, this is the natural evolution of what happens in a democracy where there is a struggling class and there were where there is some sort of view disparity or consider disparity, that this is what's gona happen in a democracy under this condition, is that you're going to elect individuals who are going to go govern and they are going to make decisions, will benefit those individuals that got them elected over the short term. And there may be some real long term damage of results.

Sex is a part of this problems that people are now looking to the government to solve their problems in life, versus may be looking internally to solve their problems. And you negotiate Better salaries.

And now I think you have to give people little bit more cradd. Nobody was asking for them to step in like this.

I look, this is as much for the politicians as for any of the workers. What's happening right now, the national restaurant association and all these restaurant lobbing groups are flooding the state, the legislators, the governor, with lobbing money because they want to get this bill modified temperature thrown out. And so this is basically iraq.

Like, look, as a public policy matter, IT makes zero sense for the same worker if they go work at a Jeffery loob or something outside the restaurant industry, they get the california million wage of fifteen dollars. If they go to a moment pop restaurant, they get the million wage of fifteen dollars. But if they got to mcDonald, they now get a new moral wage, specifically for chain restaurants of twenty two dollars.

That simply makes no sense. There is no poli policy right now. But the real question you have to ask, and truth is kind of getting at this, is, why shouldn't be fifty dollars? Why shouldn't be one hundred hours? Well, the reason is because if you raise a new wage too much, then these employers have a huge incentive to replace that labor with automation.

And so the understand consequence of month is talking about is that these big chain restaurants, we're going to rely even more heavily on automation now and they're going to basically employed less of this labor where the Price has been artificially arrayed for that subsector of the economy from fifteen to twenty two dollars, for reasons I no one can really explain. So again, this is not for the benefit of workers, is for the benefit politicians. Look, what's happening right now.

He's all these articles talking with. The lobby is coming in. They're gonna IT governing some begging him to be their savior right now. And this is the game that the california democratic party plays, is a one party state where they where basically business loves governments because these are protector. He's a protection end of the extortion racket.

Lina gos always gets this bill past, which is basically incredibly damaging to these chain restaurants, and then have to go running to get into them and beg him to either veto IT or modify IT temper the bill, so not destructive to their business. Hee's a protection in the extortion racket, but is the same racket. This is a one party state. And what they're doing with chain restaurants, they would do with every sector of the economy, if they could, is just a matter of time.

And what is the purpose of the california government? Like, are there things they could be focusing .

on other of the private sector from wealth producing party economy and outline their pockets and the pockets of their supporters? You know that the typical government worker in california makes fifty three percent more than the private sector counterpart. And a few factors in all the pensions you've been promised.

It's one hundred percent more. okay. So basically there is a huge wealth transfer that's taking place where the were basically the legislators, the party, they are transfering well from the private sector to their supporters, their backyard and free.

Where you talk about democracy, listen, I mean, california is a one party state and ballot harvesting is legal here. I'm not saying the votes are fakery thing like that, but there's a giant party machinery and apparatus that literally just goes door to door and collects the ballots from their supporters. They literally know who their supporters are on a door by door household household level. IT has gone to the point now where the party machine is so powerful they can pretty much run anybody for any post and get them elected. It's very hard for .

an outside of candidate tired today.

Oh but guys, that's exactly how IT works. I mean, like if you look at Gavin new run to the governor ship um he paid his dues. He did the right jobs.

He waited in line. He didn't, you know, rock the boat independent of any of the things he did write all wrong. And he had some pretty pick moral transgressions. IT didn't matter because IT is about paying your dues and waiting in line, because there are any meaningful .

chAllenges here. L, right now, there's a mayor race going on and the two, there's a run off between rico so and Carry bus in current bas is basically a part of the political machine. She's basically worked way up in the democratic party forever.

Sort of uninspiring canada, she's basically a pop of the machine. Crude is actually is a real state developer who's built some of the muslin mark you spots in L A. Like the growth, like the pacific policy's development.

He's made incredible. He's created amenities for the L A area. He's also been on a bunch civic boards.

You know, I had lunch with him at the growth. And people are coming up to him. He's like a celebrity.

They are taking photos with him. He's the best possible candidate that you could have in a place like L. A.

He actually understands business. I think he would restore long in order. I mean, all this kind of stuff, right? He spoke out about the almost problem being had a control. And on an election night, he had the most votes.

But five days later, when they counted all the the basic, the collected ballots through ballot harvesting, Carry basis up by like five points, that is the power of the ballot harvesting. And I still hope that he wins. But the party machine is so powerful, they can basically get almost .

anyone elected .

in the state change.

That s just .

dell's advocated. The ballot tour was thing to work both ways.

Like you could go collect republican votes, no.

but you have to have the party the problem has .

had built that think about of this way. okay. So you know, like your phone, there's a platform and there's an APP think about the party as the platform and the canada as the APP OK.

The platform can drive a tunnel traffic to whatever APP they want. A god like caruso doesn't have the party behind him, so he has to build his own Operating system. And exactly.

So yes, to build his own platform, then he has to build his own candida. So when you think about the amount of money that's required to do something like that, about how hard is to do IT, it's very, very hard. So he spent something like a hundred million years of his own money.

Hopefully he wins. But if he does not, all the infrastructure, all the platform that he created just goes away. And then the next canada has to start from scratch. This is why .

outside g investing, why the G, P, S, in of any shot, is that democrats are heavily in trying to flip. Look.

there's a two to one party affiliation. There's a two to one party affiliation in california towards democrats. So look, I mean, the republican party here is a mess.

And that's part of the problem. Is the republican party in california needs to move to the center. It's a plus thirty blue state unless you're willing to do that, they're not going to make progress. But that could take you know generations to fix.

And with roy way and that kind of stuff is going to be really hard. Tip.

look, there are pro choice republicans in california, but all newson has to do is point to what's happening in texas. And, you know, most people kind of revert to their tribal political filiation.

I make one more simple point. The average voter in california probably knows more people that work at mcDonald, then our shareholders of mcDonald. And I think in any time that there's policy that gets voted or gets suggested or ultimately gets passed, there's a side that benefits and there's a side that doesn't. And if you know more people that benefit on one side than are hurt, you're probably going to be supportive of that policy. And I think that's probably a pretty simple room brick for thinking about how these .

things over time of why is that only true for california? I mean, like in florida.

like the person in florida .

that knows more people who work in mcDonald's and shareholder to mcDonald, and they're not engaged in a systematic takeover of the private second philosophy .

that they believe in independence and businesses not being interfering by the government, right? That's a cortina of the republic lan party.

Also, the sad reality is that within a few years, um unfortunate, you will know a lot fewer people that work in mcDonalds because the number of jobs for humans will be dramatically lower.

They ve got rid of the cashers that's gone already .

or where people will be more acutely aware of in a number of years is how expensive mcDonald has gotten.

Because if the Price, no, that won't be because again, mcDonald's has a very simple no, not even the market. McDonald's is not stupid. They understand how to use excell. And so they'll think, well, I can advertise a robot versus actually jacking up um Prices. What mcDonald's understands is the sensitivity of pricing to demand for their products.

Yes, I mean, they are the most intelligent about hobby Price, every anything at the sort of the lower and where you're capturing nickles and times, they are the most sophisticated and understanding supply, demand and and and the curves. And so to think that they're not going to just invest heavily now the corporate level, the next franchise of mcDonald, we'll still pay a million dollars for franchise fee, but will give will be given a baby of robots that they run from. McDonald and theyll have to hire half or a third less. That's that's the real shame of this, which is the number of people that should actually be gainful ly employed in the economy will then drink again. But in this case, IT was because legislators just completely don't understand and how incentives work and how the economy works.

and people are not included into exactly how well narrow A, I, machine learning is doing, right? Once really moving quickly.

One general way to think about this is, is technologies introduced. And the technology creator captures roughly a third to a half of the value equipment because of the delivery of that technology, the productivity increase ment. So let's say that IT costs twelve, fifteen dollars an hour to employee a mcDonalds labour today.

And let's say that you can build technology that the amatis ed robotic cost is ten dollars an hour. There will be a technology company that will make two fifty an hour off of that. So net, net, what is up happening is productivity has to be gained and Prices will reduce.

And so you know, there are moments like this where there could be an acceleration of technology and also an opportunity for new industries to emerge. And when that happens, new jobs emerge too. So it's, you know, maybe look, come in at the end of the day, IT seems flood, I tish. But you know, there is going to be a market and market opportunity that will arrest.

I think we need to like to step back and ask, what is the type of economy that california creating here with this fast food law, with these other laws were talking about, this is a state in which you have a disappearing middle class. The middle class has been moving out of the state by the hundreds of thousands. In fact, last year, we had, for the first time, net migration out of the state.

This is basically become a state where the only middle class are basic. The government workers who, like we talked about, are making twice as much as their private sec counterparts, is a state where you have the very rich and very poor and the only middle ass or government workers. That is what we're creating.

The rich in the state have done really well over last few decades, wipe, because globalization. So you take the two big industries in the state, tech and hollywood entertainment. They have benefit enormously through globalization.

Because now you can sell software or you can solve movies or music. exactly. So now these industries have become, you know, massive global exports. And so if you are in those industries in california, you've done really well because now your market is the whole world.

So the super rich have have done really well that's funded the state that allowed the state is almost like a resource curse to have all these bad policies that really hurt small business owner. They've been moving out of the state. And so again, you've got the very rich and very poor.

This is not an economic model for the entire nation. This is what know government sum says he wants to take to all of america. This is not a model for all of america. In order for democrat to function, we need a thriving middle class. And this is not a recipe for delivering a thriving .

medal class to america. I just want to show you guys a quick video play for five seconds here we had investing this company. I got sold. Not going to see the name of that, but um if you watch this quick robot, this is a computer vision company out of a boston and like they're doing high speed picking of tomatoes and barriers like this is a two year old video when we invested one of getting bobb by another company and they're doing vertical farming.

But and there's companies doing this now for franchise, it's over like we are within, you know I think five, ten years of a lot of these jobs. I were talking tens of millions of manual labor jobs being gone and and we're gonna look at this moment in time when we tried to freeze an extra ten or twenty percent out of these, you know, uh, employers and then you going to see these employers say, you know what, twenty four our day robot, yeah, it's a little bit up front. Costs I P put on the least and they're just going to move to these robots.

It's really very close to be in game over for manual labor. And then you can see the also with cyber truck and you know what he loves doing with A I and and these things are getting so close and it's been I don't know when did you invest in your first robotics or A I company sex or chmagh. Do you remember the first robot car A I company investment, and how long .

ago was two thousand fourteen? It's a company called relativity space, which is three d printing rockets in engines. And basically they're able to use machines to learn how to actually fix the method gy of all the materials that they used to print Better and cheaper and more rocketry. That's an example.

But then that let me down the garden path I was just going to say something more generic um instead of talking her book which is um I think people misunderstand that mores law has actually not ended um and this is something that a friend of mine, adam d. Angelo character's to me, beautiful human being in together he will use A C, T, A facebook on our work there. So we this is, you know, we've known each other for fifteen sixteen years and now is A C T.

And founder cora but you know the the way that he described to me, which is so true the minute he said that I was like, my god, it's like morse law ever ended IT to shifted to G P S. You know, because inherent lack of paralyzing that CPU have you solve the G P S. And so that's why the the surface area of compute uh of innovation has actually shifted, Jason, to what you're saying, which is.

You know, all of these new kinds of machine learning models, because you can just now brute force and create such a tonnage of compute capabilities and resources to solve these problems that weren't possible before. So you know, you see this thing, you know fun things like volley or you know dali, sorry, and more sophisticated things like GPT three. But he's right, which is that in a we're at a point now we are all kinds of expert systems, which is sort of like the one simple forms of ai, are going to be completely next level well and you they got the data sets adding to that. And so when government exactly and so when governments don't understand this and they try to step in, they're going to be shocked at how much faster they're pulling forward. The actual future the actually are trying .

to prevent yeah the the data sets as the other issue for berg. You look at you know the data sets that are available to train. So you have the GPS still h escalating massively in the amount of computer power can do.

You have cloud computing at the same that you have these data sets. We are the most interesting things about, you know, dolly and and a lot of these is the corpus of data they are able to absorb. And a second factor issue that is starting to come up as who owns the derivative work in copyright. So if you train your dataset on a bunch of images, and those images are on by disney, whoever in a photographer, getty, and then the eye makes you a new photo. So here's another .

is another example of this. Here's another here's another example of this in the law that just pass. So in the I R uh the inflation reduction act, you know we granted C M S and medicare the ability to negotiate drug Prices and we actually also capped um the total prescription costs that any american can pay at two thousand dollars.

Now IT turns out that overwhelmingly, most americans will never spend two thousand dollars a year on prescription medications, but there will be a few, and they bump up against drugs that cost millions of dollars. So there is a you know there is a drug for you know uh S M A um that's like you know two point four million and like you know bea falls ia like two point eight million and you and and we will all bear the cost of that. Now if C M S and medicaid go on really crunched those hosts, what is farmer going to do? Well, farmer is going to do what is the obvious thing, which is like if you're gonna cap, what I can make, I have to completely change my R N D.

model. And they're gonna use alcohol, you know. And what is really gonna is potentially put a bunch of research scientists had to work, and those are folks that should probably, in the for our general future, be gainfully employed.

But the nature of their job is going to change completely because the economic capital incentive of big farmer is gona move towards technology, which is an alpha, and their protein library is the equivalent of A I and automation from mcDonald. So this is where, again, governments have to be super careful that they understand what's actually happen because they are creating incentives. I think that they don't completely understand.

All right, we can go to roommate for sax suck vergers. The admission of F, P, I, medical, truth, social. I like.

how dare you in that jr, n jm comes FBI is politicized. Remember you guys were debating .

and the guys that was about the investor. Un.

but some of you were, say, I can't believe sex, and you're part of the thirty five percent of americans who don't believe fully in the attitude and integrity.

The FBI. I know this is F I.

Now comes this bomb shell. I mean, you GTA MIT.

This was a bomb shop.

What was a bomb shop? O so joe rogan hat suck on and he asked him about this very specific thing member, the new york post story on counter biden laptop and like the week or two before the election was censored, right? And there was a very controversial thing because the FBI was dealing with known uh, russian interference and hacks and all the stuff uh part of which trump was like .

asking people to .

hack other candidates. Well, and this what crop said he?

What sex moderate the second?

Well, I think I am just going to read the federal list, which is wing, but he says, i'll just read you what exacts at all he says, hi, look, if the FBI, which I still view you as a legitimate institution in this country, according to the federal, which cording him from the rogan, it's a very professional law enforcement. They come to us and tell us we need to be yong guard about something. I want to take IT seriously.

So uh, when the york post broke the hundred by and laptop story on october 12 and twenty， facebook three of the story as potentially misinformation, important misinformation, for five to seven days, while the tech giant's team could determine whether also or not during that time. Uh, this is federal speaking. Decrease its facebook, decrease distribution the story by making the story rank lower in the news feed.

And this is his quote, sucker. G, you could still share IT. You could still consume IT socket, berg explained. But quote, few people saw that would have otherwise.

And while he would .

not quantify the impact, the facebook fan said the decrease distribution was, quote, unquote meaningful. And to follow up ganas, if the FBI has specifically said, quote, to be on guard about that story, mining the laptop story of original responding, no suck of a corrective says, I don't remember if I was that specifically, but I was basically the pattern.

So basically, I guess you would agree sax suck didn't know exactly what to do here with this information. And if IT was real or not, which, you know, I turned out to be very real and IT probably could have swee the election. I mean, I do think if people thought there was a connection between hundred and maybe I could have I don't know if you want people being hacked to do that. So which you take on IT x, you are just hacking in general and and specific thing. What should the FBI do if these kind of hacks are getting released of .

people's families? There's the .

complicated issue, right? So many vectors.

What zac basically says the FBI came to to them and encourage them to suppress the story, or to suppress the story that they described, that would be just like this. okay. So now look, a lot of conservation are dragon, zac burg and facebook for doing for doing the fbs bidding.

But I think a lot of people, I think most people in the ochberg position would, I believe the FBI, when the FBI comes to and says you're about to be targeted by russian information, need to do something about IT. You would have listens the FBI. He believed the FBI, my point.

So I don't blame facebook too much for that. I think it's understandable that he would have believed them. The issue here is the polarization.

The FBI look less back up what was happening. So the new york post gets the story about the leak contents of other bindon's hard drive. In response to that, you had fifty former security state officials, and many of whom were democratic partisans like clapper.

Like brennan, they signed a letter saying that this story has all the hallMarks of russian disinformation. Now the truth is, they had not inspected the hard drive. They simply said, this is the hallMarks of IT. And as a result of that, we thought that the social networks and the fourth censored the story. Okay, now IT turns out that the FBI, by the way, the FBI had the hard drive, that the hard drive for over a year.

IT was of the hard drive with the actual hard drive.

They had the actual hard drive. The league of the story was IT was likely prompted because he, if I didn't appear to be doing anything with the hard drive. So somebody leaked the story to, you know, to rudy Julian, then he little so worth in new york post.

But the point is that the FBI had the hard drive so they knew was authentic. okay? So they knew that this homework, russian decoration was not the truth because, again, they had the authenticator hard drive in their possession. And yet they still went to zuck berg and basically played into the narrative, this phony narrative that democratic tisanes like clapper and light bryan had created. Meaningful.

by the way, about what was on the laptop in your mind, like you think it's relevant, you think we want people's laptops being like this. We are in people's political families.

I don't think the laptop was hacked. I mean, there's a weird convoluted story about laptop ended up. But look, the people's .

personal pictures and that like .

the part where they were showing hundred bites, you know, drug use and the other personal stuff, I thought that was sardula ous. And I did I didn't like IT and I didn't think that was particularly german. So I think and I think that was invasion of his privacy. However, there were materials on their related to his business ceilings in ukraine, and I don't see how you can say those weren't relevant.

I think it's being investigated for them too. Now I know a lot of this has to do with timing too. You know, it's like how do you deal with something like this seven days before an election when you know the russians are hacking IT? If IT has been or not, it's a really difficult using for everybody.

So like my my point is this that I can agree you about the personal stuff about hundred by and should not come out. But with respect to the ukraine stuff that was legitimate, IT was fair game. And most importantly, I don't know whether what is wrong.

The election, not probably, probably by itself. It's not. But the real point here, as if the FBI went to facebook to sensor a story that they must have known was true because they had the laptop in there possession, they should not be intervening in elections that way. That is the bomb shell here. That's unbelievable.

I think they didn't know the experience of this, but I guess we will .

find out where .

are you lending the province .

ce of a hard drive in their possession?

Have an nf, exactly? How are .

you exactly .

wants to die? Really wants you. Were onna reserve judged on the moral logue search? Where do you ensure republicans come out on all this? Now, when you see lucky, he did, in fact, have a ton of really sensor stuff like he was.

and defined a really sense stuff.

I wouldn't pages the documents .

more classified. If you were to go to the thirty thousand boxes of documents that obama took, you told me you really can find through the pages that have classified .

markings on them, the, the.

the way. I never dispute IT a long second. I never disputed that they would find documents with classified markings in drums basement.

I still think that the approach was heavy handed, and we don't know. Enough because we don't know what those documents are. Every document they seek from the present or not every, but many of them are marked classified.

but OK. So let me ask you this, aside from these like kind of details, what is what is trump al, that he just wouldn't give them back to think what the his motivation was I made. I have my own theory, which he d likes member billie, he's always like to show off.

I think I think you got IT. I mean, honestly, if I to guess what this whole thing was about, it's probably that the archivist of the national archives, once the original copy of those letters with little rocket man, and he doesn't to give him up, think that's what this about. I think it's about something .

as silly as I think .

it's about member. I do not think these documents pose a.

wouldn't trust.

just give IT all back so dumb. But why would the fb.

I feel the need to do?

But remember this house first discuss this issue. We were told IT was nuclear. IT was nuclear .

secrets be no.

they've backed off that completely IT IT was not in the afra David is not about nuclear. That was something they lead to game through a tough press cycle. So but luck my point about all the stuff just wrapped up so people are clear, was never to defend trump er state my real concern is the policy zone of the FBI or law enforcement agency should not be weapon zed by either party to pursue the people to us.

We just saw with this occur thing what business did the FBI have going to october to get them to sensor a new york post story that turned out to be completely true? Hold on. Second, that is election in interference. They should not be doing that.

Yeah, that is a tough job. They don't know if it's been solar is a tough job.

by the way, the government, united states has no business centering a free press that is a violation in the first amendment. When the government instructs a private company sensor, a press story that the government itself does not have the authority of sensor, that is a violation.

The first member we thought, remember when jack orse's said that he regret the sense ship that twitter did and he came out without apology? We thought I was just twitter decision. Now we find out from suck that he was leaned on by the FBI.

And I think that these big tech companies like to know, like facebook, they're going to have to have a new policy, which is when the government says we want you to send or something, their response needs to be show us a court order. They do not just sensor. Now, based on the say so of some .

Operative with a bad decision, obviously.

the one big tech company that really nailed this, I think, was apple. You know, very early on, they drew really hard line in the sand with the sand burn dino shooter, because they said, if we allow the FBI to get into this person's phone, even though, you know, what he did was completely hainous, we are going to create a back door that will become an exploit for everybody. And we are drawing the line on privacy and security.

Now, different set of issues. But IT just goes to show you, there have been a few examples where some of these companies have done a hard line. And then in that example, anything just you mention this they want to israel and have that company had the phone, whatever, but he didn't come with um they they were able to stand up to the pressure. So I think there are some example sex where you you can say no I mean, the idea that twitter .

would block a new york post you are Alice like such a jump ball like if IT was the sex material, I could understand them saying, like you can't hack IT. That's against our terms of service for and we agree on that sex. But in this case, like I don't know, go to something more interesting way if I think in the drowning, I know this is interesting to sack, but I think it's interesting everybody else in the audience he .

waves in drought flash .

summer yeah, I think this might have to do .

a global warming in be .

a little union for all the g people getting .

into sex and your. Globe o to a let's give .

free burke science .

corner and .

come back ground and give you all me what what's .

what's your point of view on climate change, the impact IT will have on the planet and whether, like urgent action is needed.

Listen, i'm not an expert in that area, might not pretend to be I do think that um that we can't save the planet by destroying the economy and IT seems to me that too many of these save the planet people like wanted take reckless extreme actions that would recall our economy. You just saw actually elon just gave A A talk this and made news this past week from norway where he said that we still need oil and gas.

He's a leading innovator in basically moving to solar and renewable and he said, listen, unfortunately, we got to rely on oil and gas because is too important for civilization. If we cut the stuff off too quickly, we end civilization. So what I mean, I think this a long term problem, but I think we need to have a .

long term solution in global warming just falls up, the planet is warming.

You agree with the site, not just warming, to use a different term that there are more frequent extreme events that can severely uh, hurt people, hurt the economy, hurt the food supply, hurt energy supply, all the things that you know, I think like all the way on the bottom of masson's hierarchy like these are the things that are most critical that that they're starting to get to disrupted in a pretty severe way.

You know, I think that I mean, that's the big question. So sex, I think it's becoming, and and this is where the transition starts to happen, that a lot of people can say, hey, over the long run, the temperature gna go up by one degree. So as over a century, you know who cares?

But there are the the problem is this is that ever somebody like me points out how insane some of these policies are. The topic is shift to, are you a denier of some science or rather? No, my point, not about the science. My point is look at the collapse, the three longer economy, because they implement these eg rules on fertilizer. Look at what's happening to the dutch farmers are being .

put out of work because of the sg nia california today or newsome today said, please don't use your electric power to charge your electric cars a week after they said, uh, gas cars are how could be banned in the state and is the greatest going to go? There's a deep irony underway today in california because and fox news is obviously watched down to the story that has to do .

with the grid though. I mean.

I look, I become specious. And whenever politicians invoke some crisis .

as as the reason to measure, i've learned .

to distrust IT. That's the point.

And so you know.

something in europe right now is obviously gases through the roof because of the ukraine war, know the Prices based gone through the roof. And so because of that, there are not produce fertilizer. And one of the byproducts of the production fertilizer is C O.

Two, which gets added to the production of beer to make IT phish. Well, guess what? The germans are not only about to run out gas, they're about to run out of beer.

You think they're going to keep supporting the ukraine war when they find out that there's no beer for october fest forgets not, not be able to eat, heat their homes. They can drink beer. And october .

is t we? Everybody sit down. We got we to sit.

But just taking a bit for minute, like take taking off the table, the political response, are you as an individual concerned, uh, about the impact of a changing climate on people and on the economy and and and are you interested as an investor in the private market solutions to resolve some of those things that are obviously to become market driven problems? Take the government out of equation.

I think there .

maybe a long term problem here. I'm not sure like how long IT takes. I definitely think I am skeptical of this claim that know the world's going to end in the next ten years because Frankly, we ve been hearing that this is the thousand nine hundred nineties.

I mean eight, eight. There's a great headline article, by the way, in york times where I was like scientists in one nine hundred and eighty eight said that all the oceans, all the ice caps will melt. The oceans will flood the land by the year two thousand. So there is a credibility chAllenge associated with predicting, you know, kind of long term outcomes like this that that continues to kind of for me, unfortunately.

right? Yeah my beach front property will be underwater right now. All that came true. Now i'm just kidding. But no, but look, IT hasn't escape my attention that many of the political leaders who are claiming that were the facing imminent threat of being under water in ten years own beach from property and fly on private jet. So obviously, you know, i'm not saying this isn't a long term problem, but I do think they try to create in imminent crisis so they can shift through a bunch of bad policies that are very destructive to the .

would you define what's happening with temperature and extreme weather as a crisis or not?

Um yeah I mean there there I would say there's a critical impact in um and and will continue to be a critical impact in the food supply chain in um the quarters and years ahead because of what we're seeing so severe drought and heat wave in china right now. Um and by the way, food is not the only one there. There is also the manufacturing supply chain.

So in the province of SHE shaan in china, they actually lost power because so much of the power is driven by hydroelectric pet plant, so a streams and waterfall has slow down and stopped as a result is less power as a result of factories are being shut down as a result key components for manufacturing in the computing industry and um uh and and and a demetrio goods, 2 or nothing at the rate that they were being produced before。 That has A A ripple effect in the supply chain, similar to what we saw on code. And then in the food supply chain, we're seeing a drought in a heat wave right now. We're coming out of IT in the middle st, in the united states where we grow corning. So throughout europe and also in china and in china, they had seventy days in a row of record setting temperatures.

seventy days in a row every day. I was no water, high temperatures.

They're just starting to assess the crop damage and looks pretty severe. There was massive crop damage in the midwest, uh uh in the court, the corn belt this year um and then obviously, european farmers are having issues and combine that with the geopolitical issues of the ukraine crisis, the natural gas pricing being so high, one third of uh fertilizer of ammonia plants have been shut down in europe and they think that ammonia and fertilizer production may drop as much as one half in europe because of the crisis.

So energy Prices are so high, you can make fertilizer so that energy being redirected into other industry and support terms. So you believe this surprises. So I think, yeah, people are turning on their aces in california this week.

You know, you see that governor museum just said, our grid in california cannot support access electricity consumption. Therefore, one of the biggest variables is electric cars. He said, don't plug in your electric cars this week and that's because of record high temperatures are about the california in two days.

So look, everyone says, hey, these are kind of um anecdotal stories. But no, it's a statistically the frequency of extreme things happening is continuing to climb. And then the impact is in the food supply chain, the energy supply chain and the manufacturing supply chain.

And there are following effects. Now i'm optimistic that private market solutions will resolve these issues. And of course, I mean, look, we have a crisis since the dawn of humanity. I mean, we were a starving. We need a crisis to .

solve some of these problems. These are pretty economically obvious.

Yeah, that's that's the private market will resolve because people want to have electricity, they want to have food, they want to have one. They and so so the market will pay for those things. And therefore, producers and technologists will resolve the solutions to make that happen.

So we just have to empty and suffering and see the first antimachus the market .

to pick in our our friend in the group chat that shall not be named. Posted this meme. You guys saw that right? Which said, like an artistic school girl takes what .

was IT a habit here .

with the domino.

The dominos basically said, an artistic s swedish girl to skip school is the little domino and seven domino later this huge domino IT says the collapse of europe's energy grid um and without commenting on the language used in the mean for a second, what is the point?

The point is these conversations can so quickly go off the rails and are not about national security and economics, and quickly become about more over to signal that you miss the point. The point in the united states, just to be very blunt, is that the cost of electricity has gone up by forty six percent in the last decade. IT will go up by another forty eight percent through twenty thirty.

So between twenty ten and twenty thirty, the cost of electricity for every single american will have effectively doubled, even though the ability to generate, particularly from wind and solar, have been reduced by ninety percent. Now why is that? While IT turns out that if you look inside the p nl of these utilities, that actually gives you the answer.

So over the next ten years, we have to spend as zoning, just just on upgrading power lines, two trillion dollars. This is all, this is all like crazy, crazy apex, right? Capex improvements for some cost investments.

Our power line infrastructure in amErica is twenty plus years old, thirty years old. Our uh generation infrastructures is pretty poor. Um we have all of these failures. We don't have enough speakers. We don't have ability to store energy when we needed. So if you add this all up, I do think that there is a huge genomic incentive to solve IT and there are practical ways to solve IT.

And that's what we have to stay focused on because if we allow the moral virtue signal to get in the way we're going to make some really stupid decisions, we're going to trying to turn off nuclear thing that elon said, no, where we're not in a Green light, uh, shale and that gas, we don't have time for this. If you actually believe this is a cat classic issue, you need to basically B O K with hydrox carbons because this is the only credible bridge fuel we have to keep the world working properly because otherwise what David said is right, we are going to economically destroy parts of the world by trying to raise towards this net zero goal. By the way, guys, I just wanna take the the, you know, rip the bandit off at zero by twenty five, twenty six IT is not possible.

There is zero credible plans that the world has to do IT. So we have to take small incremental steps. And many of them yeah, this is that we should stay focused on that interest. And you cannot let people gill trip because this is when you make these stupid mistakes like the the government of europe made, which is now going to cripple here many economies of that of that entire continent unnecessarily.

Here's the good news. All the virginal and people wanting to be Green, whatever reason um all of that now economics and geopolitical is forcing people to rethink nuclear. Uh the D O canyon um new repair plant, which is the last one in california that's Operational, is being voted on today as we're tapping this and is expected that they are going to keep IT online. Governor, uh, with the great hair, I wants to keep IT going. And the fascinating .

part about this is how .

much does exactly? And so now the awareness is so high about power and us losing IT and asking people to turn off their recondition es, turn out.

don't plug in your car. But people, people don't understand how nuclear energy even works. And they like get rid of IT. They went to no news .

concert in one thousand nine and seventy eight and they haven't changed her position since but this is interesting the sky Nelson um who's been a champion of the stuff. He said I daughter chances were zero of keeping this thing open um and he said, what's you know and he said he told this conference of attention as nuclear conference that the effort uh to maintain IT he said what's happened since you know last six months has been like a snowman. Wl, that everybody has changed a position just in the last year on shutting these things down and we saw obvious ly germany, as you know, thinking the the three remaining of their six that they were gonna n off you're putting back on and I think we're going to see new ground broken and and came out just last week and said they're going to build more nuclear power, uh, and nuclear power plants. Now think about that.

That's awesome.

That's unbelievable. They had for a the german shut off their nuclear because of fools shima guys. The japanese say we're .

building more guys. Huma didn't happen by accident. There was aid like an incredible tatami, which was triggered by one hundred earthquake.

You're talking about this extremely long television. Yes, the retaining walls could have been built Better, but these are things we find, we iterate and we solve. IT was not the reason to shut down an entire mechanism of energy generation.

Stupid mistakes where they put IT just too low in the wrong place. If they just put up the hill a couple of days would be fine IT.

But also, if you look inside of what happened, there is enormous pressure inside of these companies to basically, you know, take, take actual direct blame and responsibility. I get all of that, but these organza were shamed, turning these things off. That is not the way to make good, smart decisions.

Okay, so a garbage ff, the last ruler of the U. S. S. R passed away this week's actually .

that yeah I mean, I think this was a real milestone. You go back to the one thousand and eighty, uh, round. Reagan, the who had spent his entire career being a cold warrior, saw the opportunity to basically do business with with gora chop.

Mark thatt, cher had told him, that is a man we can do business with. gobert. Fh, I come to power. In thousand nine hundred ninety five, he had initiated reforms of the soviet system.

He was a communist, to be sure, but he introduced the political reforms called glossy and economic reforms called paris stroka, and reconcile the opportunity to go meet with him. And they signed arms control treaty, arms control treaty, and ended the threat of mutual assured destruction that the world has been living with. Some became of the cold war.

You got, remember that know, the cold war began shortly afterward too, and we had this doctrine of mutually short, destructive mad. And the whole world was living under the shadow of nuclear anio lation. This was showed repeater when I was a kid. Um there was A T V movie called a day after .

the day after IT was the day .

was they terrorize .

amErica and going to die. We had, did you ever have nuclear? A bomb? Trails had to get on your desk.

Yeah, I mean, so, yeah. So if you are like our age, you remember this that movie, by the way, that that was a TV event movie that was one of the most widely watch movies. But there were others.

You know, jim Cameron use this concept in the terminator movies. You know, IT was something that people were really afraid of. And regan seized the opportunity. He thought fundamentally that nuclear deterrence was immoral, that yet Better to have deterrence than a nuclear war, but that he, if he could, he sees the opportunity to negotiate the end of the cold.

By the way, there were hardliners in his administration who did not want him to negotiate with a corporate ff, but they ended up during a series of uh meetings uh culin thousand thousand and six of the rig of c summit and they signed a deals to move these I N F system deals now and that ended the cold war. And then basic what happens? In nineteen nine and nine, the berlin walk came down, gora chaff allow the wester, the worth all act countries to leave.

And then in one thousand and nine, one, the civil on collapsed. So, you know, he gets a lot of credit for being willing to reform that system. Now the sad thing is, if you're fast ford thirty years later, where are we today? We're back in a new cold war with russia.

I mean that we've been spending a good part this year talking about the threat of a nuclear use. And you know, this was a problem that we thought was solved thirty years ago. And now we're back with IT today.

And you've got ta ask, have the successors of, you know, regan and and and George harbor Walker bush, the people who inherited our foreign policy over the last thirty years, have they done as good a job as ragon IT ragon ended the cold war? We are back in a new cold war. why? What is the reason for this? There have been A A series of super policies that now have put the risk of nuclear war back on the table.

My interesting corporate is slightly different. He is an incredibly important character, uh, on the second half of the twenty century, undeniable know on the nobel prize. As you said, David kind of ended the cold war. But the most important thing, in my opinion, was the president per striker and why he did IT.

And as you said, like you know, this is a fairly ARM communist although he had really interesting views like he ran a very kind of like open um kind of polya where folks could debate and he you know promoted a lot of Young people from within all of these interesting things. But the most important thing, and he's written about this a lot, is the reason that he embarked on paro strike was because U. S.

S. R at the time had an incredibly poor work, ethnic, terrible productivity and horrible quality goods. And I think that there is something to be learned by that because at the tail end of commission, essentially where you had central planning, central imposed economic principles, what happened? People did not feel that they had any ownership .

in the outcome.

No agents, no agency whatsoever. And I think that there is a really important lesson to observe there, which is that if governments get to vely involve, this doesn't just happen in russia. IT happens everywhere.

If we just got to.

it's happening. We're we live right now. And if you look at then what happened afterwards, IT became the aristocracy that basically ruled the U.

S. S. R. Before, and then fighting against all these folks that wanted reforms. And that created disk ism, which then perverted capitalism for neo seven eight years through yelland until putin got there. And that's what created the oil gar class. And you know, really exasperated a bunch of wealth capture by a handful of folks that mayor may not deserve. IT not not gona judge that, but I just think it's really important to understand that he was forced to embark on this because all of these state central planning policies, and so is just an important lesson for americans .

and democracy, which you are for. If you want .

more government.

you might get more guys. The server union, their economy, used to run on what they called five year plans. IT was incredibly centralized.

IT was all run by the government, and this was commission and the tweets century. The second office especially was a giant battle of systems, not just of country is not just the western block. Um you LED by the U.

S. The free world verses the civil union in the warsaw packed. He was also a battle of philosophic systems that was the physical y of state control versus freedom.

And in a free economy and freedom one, you know, the free economy one in that battle. And the crazy thing is, thirty years later, we're talking about socialism being a viable doctor. You have politicians basically saying that they are socialists, but thirty years ago you would have been like that was unelectable.

Is example after example, empirical evidence, well documented of just how IT doesn't work? And I guess that thing is, you know, we all say, like you just have to learn IT for yourself, like you'll tell your kids to do, to not do something, add, and they gotta touch to stove themselves and get burned. We are about to go do that in california.

Can you imagine if, like people who want to be social here, who find us, if they had to be in food line, or have russians, literally, russia had food lines and they were rationing food in the one thousand and eighty, like, well, you to have to essentially god .

A A large driver of garbage, a basically negotiating these peace settings with, you know, with reagan and this nuclear, you know, uh, demilitarization was in part because he knew he couldn't fight.

right? IT, was this the that centralize system was collapsing? Yes, they could not keep up, ring and began an arms build up. And there was an arms race, and they were losing.

They were losing for you. And this is why, like, people should not misunderstand what gorbio v was. He was not necessarily some democratic freedom fighter.

He was a person who was observing the on the ground conditions of a social asylum decay, their ability to compete. And so he had to capitally before he was forced upon IT. But this is why I don't .

think he deserves much credit as as wrong. Rain is because at the end of the day, gorbals would have kept communism going if he could have had.

So he wanted the beck together. I mean, that's right.

I think to his credit, when the things started to collapse, he didn't silence and representation to try and hold IT together. so. Know he was, he was a reformer.

He was a liberalized be and a rag, didn't use violence. But, and ultimately, he was a partner for around reagan. Member round rggi n began this gigantic arms build up.

He was denounced as a cowl boy who would get us in all three. But when he had the chance to negotiate a deal with gora, coffee took IT. And they, based on arms control .

and IT was because regan was able to sit on top of an extremely productive capital, a system that allowed him to make those investments that made that capital ation. We are easily affect complete. And I think that that's another thing for a lot of us to to understand, which is free market capitalism. Removing these degrees of decision making give us degrees of freedom. And i've said this before in the last pot, the great thing about the ira and what chuck humor did is actually, we will be written in ten or fifteen years from now, because when we get to energy independence, when every home is resilient, the national security calculus in amErica changes whole, hardly overnight. I mean.

twenty years ago.

cancel.

No.

it's true if you're .

willing to use this progress .

in fracking. AmErica is one of the richest energy countries in the world.

oil toya. I mean, listen, I will change everything if we can really go all in on all of the categories, nuclear just for.

And if you let the capital markets do and the free markets do what they're meant to do, they will empower the government to do great things for all of you, all citizen.

The reason want to stop .

IT is because we have a couple of examples of you, extreme wealth. And I think that something we have to think about is, like, are the extreme is the extreme wealth created for a certain class enough to stop the the prosperity train that we .

actually have in a politics in the california think they can run fast food businesses Better than that. People who own those those restaurants.

people have never work today in their lives. They can work well. yeah.

The great thing is we have a running A B test, which will show whether the state central planning can work or not. And again, if we refuse to want to listen to the examples of russia or all of these other countries that have tried this, then so be IT. We will know in the next three to five years that these policies actually don't work. And actually that IT actually accelerates the exact held cape that they think they're .

trying to avoid. But no, not only to my point about foreign, only only are we forgetting the lessons of this cold war, the economic lessons that a free enterprise system generates more wealth and prosperity and more national greatness, more ability to fund a defense budget, create a Better economy.

Not only does do all those things we forgotten, we forgotten that, but also we have abrogated, we have ended every single defense control and arms control treaty with the russians that regan and gorge shop sign. why? Why do we do that? now? Our nuclear missile appointed each other again.

And you know what? Russia's, a much poor country, the U. S.

Were actually fifteen times richer than them during the cold war. At their peak, we were only three times richer than them. But we're fifteen times, is Richard. But they still got over six thousand nukes. Why do we get rid of all those arms control treaties?

Why are we basing with what we've set IT before? Like you're dealing with a pragmatic and putins gba.

maybe I maybe you feel like pod isn't someone we can deal with now, but he was someone we could have a dealt with ten years ago, twenty years ago. We miss the opportunity with him. Jason .

actually going to be rarely the only way will be able to deal with them as if he doesn't have the oil uh, market he has but he just has too much power from manoel. And over time, that's the solution we have to be energy independent. I think you're up is .

learn that was a communist. He was an air to stalin. And yet ragings could still do business with him and sign and arm's controlled treaty so that we can end the risk of usually a short destruction.

You don't have to believe. You don't have to believe that putting is a good guy in order for us to avoid IT getting back into a cold war, which is the situation we find themselves in. now. How's IT benefit us to have russian nukes? Once again pointed at our heads here.

And the reason why .

the reason why we alienated him, Jason, and has nothing to do with him being him out Better, whatever IT is, because we brought nata, which you've uses a hostile military line right up to his border. And and by the way, listen to this video from gobertz. Gorbachev was asked about nature expansion in front of the congress.

He was giving a talk to them, and they asked him, gorge a, what do you think about nato and what did you say? He said that you cannot humiliate country this way. And expected to be no consequences, global choice against any no expansion.

When basically George were Walker bush in the secretary say genes, Baker went to garbage ff to argue on behalf of german reunification. This is basically in one thousand nine hundred and ninety, Baker made the promise to gba chop, not one inch eawt gora. Child said, yes, okay, I they can reunify, but we do not want nato moving up to our border.

Baker made that promise. We have brought nato after their border. That is why regards us with hostility. yeah. And I think .

europe regard him with hostility, and they are scared of him because he keeps invading country. So takes two to tango. But hey, this has been episode ninety four IT.

IT does take two to tango, but you have to ask, has the U. S. Foreign icy over the last thirty years that Scott ness in a new cold war with russia? Has that been a successful part foreign policy? They have undermined all the good work that round reagan gorbachev did together to end the cold war.

We are back in a new cold war, you lame. Putin has some blame, but sort of the U. S. A department. So as U.

S, A department and europe, europe has a big part of the blame to here because he's their neighbor ford, the sultan of science, the rain man and, uh, reagan library chairman. Are you the chairman of the regan library? Let me ask this, when you were a kid, did you ever ragin poster in your room? Have you ever .

earned a ragan poster? I've definitely owned a picture of reagan.

And if you hang a road poster or a picture in your dorm at stanford.

yes, listen round reagan, that's yes. Second round, rain won the cold war without firing a shot. He gave us the Grace economy the us.

Has ever had. He ended the inflation and stack flag of the thousand. Nine hundred seventies. And again, he diavolo ded getting us into any of these major wars. Tell me the politician who have any.

who is the politician .

who you are a wear, who has a track record like that?

Um yeah I mean, I guess one would say bill clinton, you know would be the closest you know great president of our our lifetime, right? You would agree with that.

I think this is a good .

Price not to high ragan and remember .

he benefit from the economy.

That really what the reason you agree with me clinton is right behind region .

region in clinton in since like nineteen and fifty, something easily .

talk to yeah is .

easily very good.

But but head and shoulder, I think, like for practically what they do with at their point of time. amazing.

Alright, listen, sax, I know you love ragan think that put you ragan and nixon, reagan, bill clinton, one on each side of you for next week. I gotta love you. Xi, I.

Rain man, give.

We open sources to the fans and they .

just got crazy.

We should all just get a room and just have one big, huge orgy because they like like sexual attention. but. 想到。

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