E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
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Point of privilege sex were this hat last week. What what's this brand is, is among care .

and and actually, did you see that tweet start started trending after I wore IT? So it's sold out.

dude, you sold out the month lair hat. So we have no advertising.

I feel like if if you're not going to do any advertising on the show, we at least get free clothes. We get to pick room where.

like my influencer.

the treat basically said that eye named drop law piano sent through the roof of inx drop clare, both friends, obviously our italian, both of for nurses, we know very well. Uh and and so I asked that, I said that can you basically send this tweet over .

to this .

so maybe they can let's get the, and how we got some best to greece, guard down. You speak in my language.

captain picking of Grace.

I do like monk the way that is. Th.

like the piano guys know at the birth day, day that you must.

I A worker.

We had a birthday. We had a surprise birthday party for me, not through IT. Sac showed up.

Freeport showed up. Their wife showed up. IT was incredible. J, K, L, basically, still for me.

I'm very sorry. There was a bother that came together four days before you work. So just show up.

Give us the best one.

Lier.

which one landed? Oh, no. 这 these guys rose me。 IT was fucking incredible.

But the best of IT was at the end. K, heart gets up with no preparation and scars. Everybody prepared. I, me do. What did you think of like Kevin's .

rose is tarter. He was so funny. He's like, my wife walked in here and he looks at me .

and she's like, guys.

But he was so funny, he dropping.

of course, well, he's a ring, he's a professional.

but he maybe the finest .

person in the world and then .

says that to come after yeah exactly under I don't know why is under was the MC f Kevin hard for the last? But instead he calls up k .

heart in the midst. Okay, so wait.

So I I couldn't make you because I head burning. Man, the amer does am saying then Kevin heart, you are you saying is just to fill in the order year so they can understand .

IT Kevin hart comes in .

he gives this incredible ad lib rose and then successful effort .

yeah it's ander didn't on first .

all its anders is funny .

a anders is .

funny as a root he should not have been the MC. So yes, we did miss you. J, you should be in the MC second.

K, heart should been left for last, obviously. But ander sander, being a good liberal, couldn't sensor me. alright.

So we had me go after. K. R, that's like the next best thing.

Did you steal his documents? Did you steal all his jokes and put them in your.

I just throw and all these like jokes, right? I just throw out the window because he, what I can do, i'm going to delivered jokes after Kevin heart. So I just told this story.

You have heart like killed, I mean, the room, I mean getting .

punched by my ties and god.

great.

man.

We open sources to the fans .

and just got.

But we were at the the code conference. We had the poker game who was .

the last one after twenty I .

to what moss and can switch because they did the contest years together. Congratulations on twenty year run. The not gonna IT a Carry is not going to do in next year, but h my french and bank of who runs box is gonna IT next year.

Uh, so congratulations to him and Carry for a great run in all things. D they had Steve jobs at the first one, first speaker. And you can look at .

out like to ask a question when, uh gates and jobs, uh, did that .

speech together. unbelievable.

What an incredible legacy that SHE .

documents. We'll see where the poker game goes next year .

probably only and think the all in summit could have .

been that hearing aking. It's heart breaking. I'm not saying that i'll be hosting the code conference next year, but they're looking for new poster a this is the promote this part is were drawing too many hyperfine people in now. But interestingly, if free burger and I we now have the press once the press are trying to do a profile of the pod, and so we had three or four different press outlets. Now I wonder which ones, and have all asked us to do like a see for a profile leave said no, but just because I said.

why don't we do a profile of them? Who's to make them the media, you know?

Ww, I mean .

competence. Our competence wanted to a piece on us. Why we can. T, you know, this can be a head piece.

IT probably be happiness course.

because we're stealing influence and clicks and views away from them sides. They're ideologically motivated anyway. So their message police sex, you don't .

think you're ideologically motivated.

Listen, if you conflict the official narrative and they write A A hip piece about you, that's how they try to enforce discipline actually.

but not its. I like the independent words I do. I have to say, like this whole, you know, substate movement in independent artists, where independent journalists becoming even more indian in the fact care, swish ers, more india. Now, SHE had left the new york times specifically because they were giving her a hard time about certain guests or certain conversations and now she's you know doing her pocket independently uh with walks publishing IT for her.

So you see more and more of the voice is .

go independent. New republic is the right idea. Here's my official comment. I can't wait to visit sex when he's in the White house at twenty years and the guys like so you're saying sax is writing for a president. I'm saying, no, i'm saying that you don't understand a joke.

That was a joke yeah then and then after you copied me then they're like, oh yeah .

we were reaching out .

to David too.

So a ky, trying to get to talk.

No republica nice.

That would be a nice providing.

Nobody reads be if were Michael kinsey running the new york public, I would be happy to, you know, take the time. But not that anymore.

It's just another left ling rag that's into policing speech um you know they asked they are a bunch of questions like why I don't I don't have front of me but they are like they're basically like why did you support recall chac building to like that and my pr person got actual said, have you seen the all in pod? Have you read David like twitter? Because he explained this like abundantly for the two years he was advocating for week. Every week we talked about there's work .

sitting there in the transcripts.

he talked about the pot.

The I didn't listen to the pod.

He is like he waited about this. No, he just thinks that i'm like some right wing donor who was like trying to get chase a kicked out that kind of narrative you know some like this, a total waste my time. Go read all my tweets, go watch the all in part, and then come back with any questions have been answered.

Is this lazy reporting on the new republic part? Why would you .

do a profile .

if you didn't actually a serious conversation? Three board it's working around in this background.

What is this .

background? What is that? It's a future .

city in a piece about.

okay, so the information, uh.

reached out and .

we said.

no, are you doing this actually on the show right now?

I I .

guess I think all in press inquiry no, and discuss on the part to quote, listen to our pod and then transcribe what we say on this pod, or reverse my cloth for the neurotic is that if Michael ksv were still the editor, I be happy to spend my valuable time talking to you. But you feel .

they feel they be a fair profile?

Of course it's not. Can be fair. There are the speech police now. And the fact he didn't even know, the fact he didn't even know that I wasn't just a donor on the chase of the dean thing. I was the first person that I am aware of, at least within silent valley, who called out chase a bu dee for the horrible job he was.

I mean, that was by parts, by the way, it's not like David sax is one of the three percent of san franc kans who are republican like he's not able to vote for the sixty nine percent of people who voted to sit out. So like you .

can't spend that one like this a partisan. That's not really how I come at these issues.

Can we go back to your quotes? So that was your comment for new republic. jl. Do you a comment for new .

york and then arted with eric newcomer who is awesome work at the information started his own sub stack um which is really good, by the way and he becomes on my other pod um he's awesome. And so i'm going to be a guest on his part because I promised, and he does my pot, but i'm not going to be a guest.

My philosophers, I told me that you can help me as a guest, but I can be more than ten percent all in because I don't want you to become all in profile. We agree IT as a group are not doing all in profile right now. So up to ten percent can be about all in, but the other ninety percent is going to be my other projects and he said, telfy, um I understands, but he at first, and actually I would be inclined to do with him because he's if .

we were going to do IT, but then what what do they need? I mean, like we create like hours and .

hours of content and the dramas out here for everybody.

I understand like what what you need our portion.

I think you want to know you want to maybe frame and get a couple of week. No, you just want to get a couple of quotes that are unique. So that is worth reading.

Good guys have shut their heads up, each other .

other's last. So it's like a surd never spit are going up here .

clean bill of health, sex so way eric newcomer asked and then the information ask and .

then Kevin room sucessful.

you see or my .

comments in your time is, yeah, enjoy the pod while at last we're trying to keep IT together. I mean, I think the other big issue is I got approached by a couple of by two different people who want to who want to represent the power. They say there are seven and half million dollars and advertising we're leaving .

on the table by one .

hundred fifty eight week and and literally .

that I to grow to ten million to twenty million.

killing me, realized I would have a plan if you guys, just like we saw the fucking and everything I can get.

like a million that have dollars in, just you have a plane if you just p one other things, you're things just do one thing. I'll say what IT .

is you have a plane if you're smarter.

That's not, that's not nice sex, that's not nice. I would have a plane if I got lucky. I will say whoever said this is going to help our core businesses.

And that's some reason I think might be I embarrassing my for fund I am doing at five or sixty, which is public. I tweet about IT. I had twelve hundred people sign up for the webinar.

And this means I might have to increase the size of my fourth venture fund because so many people listen to this part and want to hang out. So thank you to everybody. Listen the pot, I think, oh, I mean, it's just nice and struggle. Raise the first couple of finds of you guys backed me but like I couldn't break through as a solo gp with the with the big L P, is but i'm hoping to get one big L P this time and you it's i'm going to be over subscribe with the high network k individuals and everything. But i'd like to get like a moral self catering ing or somebody doing cancer research just .

to feel good about, you know I say that I supported J K, L as a friend. In fact, I was the first L P checking your fun. But that does .

not mean that are still .

in anyway and that anybody else come in.

I mean.

whatever you I don't want to say the performance, but and you don't okay at that.

And I would like to say that I I was not the first.

but I was the biggest. You did you did pretty big. absolutely.

And I will say that i'm still waiting for that moment to join you guys in.

Yeah, exactly. And i'll just keep coming to your L P. Meetings and entertaining your thanks .

way to .

investor in production board.

Have done, have done a yc together.

You are my small lest investor. you. I have .

to get work.

Do you really want to the queen, the passing of the queen? Roque ke, before we start.

or to 那个， i was raised in canada, so, and now I live me. The states of they have been a citizen of all three countries, of two of the three countries. I've been a subject to the queen.

I know. I mean, i'm part of the commonwealth. And I just want to say IT was really sad for me, like these last couple days when I would saw that he was sick and then he had passed. I gonna honestly, you like, I really touched me. SHE is an, I can't describe two guys for someone who is part of that rome, how important SHE is as a person. And then, you know, if you seen, you know, the the show on netflix that kind of romanticized a little bit, but you know, he has seen seventeen prime ministers SHE seen so many president SHE is seen the history of the world, uh, the modern world being made in front of her so yeah, i'm a little sad and I think she's in incredible person. I mean, even if you don't agree necessarily with monarchies in general, I think you have to be superposed.

Next story of imperialism. There's a lot of people that are kind of using this moment to be negative, right?

Make a wants to become public. Australia wants to become, we'll prosecute that in due time. But for right now, I just think that we have to celebrate this incredible women who lived to an incredible age, who saw incredible things, and who dedicated her entire life to the public service and lived IT totally neutrally, which in today's world, nobody else does.

Everybody else takes the point. Everybody is, everybody else tries to basically, like, you know, create a schism. SHE never did that in seventy years as the queen, yeah, like.

very stops in a symbol of service, not a symbol of dictatorship. right? I mean, there seems to be a very different role that chips taken as a monarch. Then I think what has maybe historically been the role which is about pretty that .

right is extraordinary, that somebody would put seventy years of service to be that diligent and I think stoic and and there for her people, to the people who are, you know, suffering and grieving. You know.

that word you said really resonated with me. Like diligent is such a great word because it's like you are discipline. You put in hard work, you're focus on a long term goal and then yourself less. Not many people, not many people check out that you know this exhibit that at all of them definitely don't exhibit over seventy years.

It's extraordinary. And yes, I know a lot of people are grieving right now.

So you somebody mony I of the common worth, rather I am from queen is bit and a deeply size me to see you got .

I listen we ve got to talk about winter is coming. I'm not talking about game is about serious going on here and we don't to be too repetitive here. I think we correctly um predicted that you this this ukraine, I think maybe sex .

you point to an list i'm trying .

to give you fucking created and you interact. Can you just take the fucking and win? You're such a miserable bastard. I try to give you one fucking you off. So we've been talking about this ukraine thing sax correctly predicted. If this goes to winter, this is going to get a cute and of course, uh, write on q here we have that russia has essentially cut of uh gas uh, to eur right now by claiming that the north stream one the north pipeline that russia built that goes under the baltic sea.

They basically say a turbine broken in IT magically at this point in time rape before winter of this turbine broke according to putin um and he needs a turbine um and if they give him a turbine he said he will turn IT back on uh this in the face of uh europe saying they were going to cap the Price of russia gas. I don't know how that works exactly that you tell people what they can charge for gas but russian gas shipments, uh which germany is particularly uh, dependent on, have fAllen eighty nine percent since last year. And the Price of liquefied natural gas in europe is four times level year ago and eight times the level of the U.

S. Obviously we are have got ten incredibly lucky to find all this uh, natural gas here and we are a huge exporter of nature gas and oil in the united states so we're good um this is the highest power Prices have been in three decades and the perfect storm is not limited to oil in the russia and the ukraine war. Uh, france is fifty six nuclear power plants are running at half strength because of shutdowns over corrosive problems. And as we talked about maybe two episodes, routes have undermined hydro electric hour .

because of what is .

this is there is a perfect storm here.

It's not just that forty percent of europe's uh, energy consumption comes from russian natural gas, forty percent. And so you could see variants. There's a baseload requirement for lighting and electricity and then there's industrial production and then there's heating and cool heating and cooling demand is linearly tied to the number of degrees above below sixty five fair and height on on average.

And so as the temperature goes up, people turn condition as on. As the temperature goes below sixty five, they turn their heaters on. So there is a liniers demand for power consumption at those.

So number one is you could kind of you can either cut baseline, which is lighting and basic kind of, uh, Operations. Number two is cut industrial production, which is already happening. A lot of fertilizer plants are shutting down in the country that are dependent on natural in in, in the continent.

H that are dependent on natural gas and a number three of the h heating and cooling. And that really ends up being kind of a market driven function, which is how pricing is this stuff because there's a limited supply. So you could Normal in a Normal year see fluctuations around five, ten, fifteen percent, maybe with good kind of action and behavior, forty percent of energy being cut is a massive, massive problem.

There will be significant Price clients for the kind of variable demand and heating and and so on. But for the Price to go up by six x 7X7x ten ex fifteen x over Normal Prices for someone is unbearable by the average households， unbearable by the average small business, unbearable by the average small building. Um and so is is causing critical failure uh across the economy, across the currencies, across debt markets.

H and there's real concern that ultimately be shutting off of forty percent of the energy supply to the continent reading into winter. Winter is coming where energy demand Spikes because of the need for heating is going to cause real cut of problems. So there's the cat, a cosmic problem of people actually being able to heat their homes.

There is the industrial problem of part of the h economy shutting down, and then there is the currency problem of the governments, meaning to step in and bail out industry by super expensive gas, give IT to their citizens and their businesses at a discounted Price, and seeing their national and foreign debt sky rocket, which is now expected to happen. And as a result, the british pound is trading at its lowest level since one thousand and eighty five. And as a result, people are rushing to the street from prog to colony germany, even in london, for claiming that the governments aren't doing enough number one, to stall the uh the rate of inflation to make uh energy Prices through action by having the government subsidies.

And number three, which I think was inevitable and is now becoming kind of the surprise factor to the UK ine crisis, citizens are saying, and this war now get to the table with russia, come up with the settlement and get the heck out of ukraine, by the way, that's not everyone saying IT, just to be clear. But there is this rising rioting, protesting behavior across europe, particularly eastern europe um as a result of the ukraine war. And so we're seeing, you know I think, a big shift in attitude, a big shift in kind of the societal perception of this war, particularly in europe because they're so cute feeling the effect.

And we are not in the us. There are cute feeling the effects and thing. We need to stop this war now. We need to get out of the way.

We need to let russia turn the gas pipeline back on, and we need to figure out a resolution, stop supporting ukraine. And that's a voice that was that's a voice that did not exist. Very lady at the beginning. And it's and it's starting to swell.

running out of food or, you know, running out of heat to keep your kids warm. I mean, these are pretty ute situations through out. What's the vibe in the middle east about this? Are they looking at and seeing IT as an opportunity? Are they looking at IT and seeing IT, as you know, a management crisis? And and what do they consider their participation in this to be?

There's a very structured framework for energy production, which is all back and back plus. And you know they have done not just the middle ast but Frankly the middle east plus um the united states, the best job possible to basically get the maximum demand so that there's as much energy as possible.

The reasons that europe are in an energy crisis really should be discussed fancy so number one, an entire continent essentially allowed a sixteen year old girl to dict their energy policy and when the credit filter g was able to shame an entire continent IT to basically walking away from nuclear and not really evaluating how you can actually have energy independence, what they did was they put europe in an incredibly fragile position. And at the beginning of this war, IT wasn't clear how much damage the lack of russian energy would do to the european economy. But now it's absolutely clear.

because we set IT on the, on the part in february. And trump said years ago, I am first.

how is obvious? Be honest, you have these two group fault. You had a goop fall on the left, which is the sixteen year old girl who knew nothing.

And you a goop fall on the right, which is a president whose language turn people off. Even though the message that he was delivering was one hundred percent right. When when trump went to the united nations, he was clear, he was precise.

And in hindsight, and i'm saying this as a democrats, he was right. H about right. German reliance on russian gas and and the european reliance on gas.

what did they think? What happened?

The important thing was the reaction. Remember the german delegation .

snickering while he was? Think, but but we're missing the real lesson. The real lesson is that in all of our haste to basically overtly judge trump because of his delivery and is you know his personal style, and whenever we ran toward the sixteen year old person who has no routing and science of technology.

Dedicate the energy policy, even entire contents. I mean, the he was nominated for a nobel prize. Just to remind you guys, this is how we are saying all of these people were.

So in an effort to virtue signal to the hilt and beyond what we essentially did, what the entire world did was turn a blind date of science and turn a blind die of mathematics and simple understanding of suppliant demand. And so now you have the situation where the entire content of europe is probably on the precision of and and the minimum recession. But Frankly, there is a lot of scenario where I could be meaningly worse.

And I think what he does is ultimately IT is forced to russian ending, and that russian and game is essentially the following, which is that germany will probably be the first to capital late, but it'll be the combination of the united states and europe who negotiate some kind of a settlement. They have to fall. And and the reason, well, without calling IT folding out, you say there's a settlement and the reason that settled is necessary, you are going to start the impact tens of millions of people's lives in an incredibly arduous way.

And those people are asking their leaders to tell them why it's worth IT. That's why you're seeing protests all around europe. People have decided that this more has gotten two or three steps beyond what they thought they we're getting into, and that IT was shining light on a whole set decision that never should be made.

Sex, I think what people most want to know, and i'll go to free berg after sex freeburg. I think people gonna to know how do they close this gap in terms of the forty percent dependency? So you can start thinking about that, but acts, how do we resolve this issue with russia without enabling them? Because nobody wants to enable them and reward them for evading countries.

But here we are. They didn't settle this thing in the whatever nine months were in now and they don't have any more cards to play. They need heat. They need people can freeze the death in germany.

So there's gonna have to fold in some way and IT doesn't see like there's any gap that can be closed here in terms does the firewood to go around. It's only stories about stock point vireo ood that doesn't seem practical. Sure, you can reduce consumption by ten, twenty, maybe twenty five percent. That does seem reasonable, but they're still a huge gap yard. So so what's the end game sacks.

I mean, well, first I just just put some numbers on this. There's a good report by golden sax called europe's energy crisis is at a tipping point. This came out on september, yes.

And IT says here that the Price of natural gas in europe IT used to just be twenty eos per metal lot hour, is now above two hundred per metal lot hour. So we're at ten times the ten year average in the market, and winter is even here. So, you know, europe is the titanic.

Winner is the iceberg. The main difference between this and the titch stories that everyone can see the iceberg, and yet no one is really changing course. So this trust, the new prime minister of the U.

K, so that ukraine can depend on U. K. For support in the long term. Oof shalt said that germany will support ukraine as law, as IT takes micron from france, so that nature will stand together and prevent russia from winning the war.

So, you know, leader after a leader is doing the opposite of what you tomato just said, which is try to figure out a compromise. In fact, in the last week or so, new information came out about actions boris Johnson took back in march, April, when they remember when there was discussion about a peace deal about a month into the war. IT turns out that boris Johnson went ukraine and said, no deal.

Do not take the deal. We need to weaken putin in russia, not compromise with them. So the fact the matter is that the european leaders are increasingly at a touch with their own people.

The agenda they are serving is not the agenda of, or the desire of their people to basically stay warm in the winner or pay reasonable energy bills. They are serving this larger foreign policy agenda. This is why you're seeing people in the streets and tex aoc in these other countries.

And this is why the crisis will only grow in winter. I think you guys are just assuming this can be a compromise. I'm not sure that's true.

These leaders are stubborn. So this is why, for example, we've already now seen in the U. K, R, Johnson lost power, although this translate y as the same policy mario draghi has basically lost in italy.

The bulger's replaced their pm, so the leaders, the dominance are sorry to fall in europe. And I think this can be a lot more of this. And who knows what governments were going to end up with in euro?

I mean, what what do you predict what happened? You think they're going to hold their ground and .

not have a point out the mistakes that these leaders made following greathed berg? I think there's another mistake they've made, which is I think all of these leaders have pulled a tony blair. Do remember tony blair.

Tony blair was the bill clinton of the U. K. After margret thatcher, he was the first labor pm to get elected.

He was incredible, talented as a politician, and he was very popular in the U. K. Until he did one thing. You know what that one thing was? He went along with George w.

Bushes, iraq war, the people of UK did not want to get involved in that war, and blair acted as w lapdog and went along with IT and brought into all of the lies about that war. And today he has zero credibility in the U. K.

It's really actually a sad story. I think that these european leaders are making a similar kind of mistake with respect to bidens proxy war against russia. Now let's go back.

I want to go back to a point. You may, Jason, let turn to freeburg, which is you talk about the fig 的 ef that the russians are blaming this on our turbine。 I don't think that's even really trying more. I mean.

the russians are basic SE.

yeah. But but I think the russians are basically said that that listen.

this sanctions, sanctions edit turbine. It's like pick one.

But the point, trying to make IT look, obviously this is retaliation by the russians. The problem is the stupidity of western leaders and not thinking there's going to be retaliation. I mean, all you're hearing right now from western leaders is indignation that russia will play the only card they have, the car that was obviously, are onna play.

Meanwhile, look at what we've done. So you've got administration officials talking about the fact that we have commanders on the ground, ukraine. You've got administration officials bragging about the fact that we are helping to pay target on the backs of russian generals.

They can be killed. You have administration officials posting about providing the the artillery potting so we could think the mosque, the russian flag. Chip, i'll provide receipts for all these things.

okay? You've got bidens saying that putin cannot remain in power. You've got a Linda grams saying you.

let's go forward. How does IT resolve?

You've got linster gram saying the assessing ated like season. You've got the U. S.

Appropriate forty billion and weapons to ukraine. And so my point is this, okay, the U. S.

And the western and alliance, they are doing everything in ukraine except pulling the triggers. Okay, they are doing the first point OK. So the point is we are in a proxy work with russia.

What did you expect was gone to happen? These leaders are not even playing check. Forget about playing chess. They're not even playing checkers, meaning they cannot even anticipate what the russians were going to do next.

IT was immediately predictable, imminently predictable, that the russians were going to turn off european gas and create this crisis. So what should they have done? What they should have done was work out a White e deal.

I know that we kind of repeating the same position you have every week or i'm trying to get to going forward. So uh, freeboard, what should we do going forward here, both on an energy basis and a political basis? That's the thing I get the sort of breakdown of what occur here in your position, sex. But what do you think freeboard .

should happen going forward? How so there's an acute energy shortfall. You can just make that up. You can convert oil into natural gas to heat people's homes. It's impossible structurally right now in the time frame that is needed.

What are the U. S, the E. U. Be doing now that they're not doing?

Yeah, I think that there is gonna be this inevitability that we're gonna need to broker a deal with russia. And there is. And what I think you'll see over the next couple of months, particularly because winter is coming, is you need to uh there's going to a lot of saving face.

And so I think um i've always said from the beginning, I think that putin's calculus is to go as far and as deep as he can go so that he could eventually negotiate himself back out in a way that leaves him with what he originally wanted in the first place. And I think that there are certain strategic regions and certain strategic assets that is pretty clear and evidence he wanted. And if he's gotten enough, in addition to that, he can give up the additional part and he can get sanctions lifted and he can turn gas back on and be left with what he actually wanted and ultimately get out of this thing.

And then the the face saving will be from the west will be, hey, we got him to give up this. We got him to give up this. We got him to agree to not incursion and you'll be some sort of, you know, hey, we got put knocked down a bit and you know, we got a matter of there.

We did that. We won high five. Meanwhile, putin smiling because he's got exactly what he wanted. I think that's where this is gonna end up over the next several months. I think that that if IT doesn't, there is gonna significant writing and civil unrest in europe and um and there will be a significant significant economic effect because so much of germany and so much of the broader continent is dependent on a stable low cost or lower enough cost energy supply for the production of things that are produced in europe.

And if those things can be produced profitably because the end market won't pay for IT, the economy will be shattered, economies will be shattered, and people will be really unhappy, food will climb, and the currency will be destroyed. And you what happens when currency will get destroyed, all imports become inflated in Price and then you have inflation? If there isn't a resolution in the next few weeks, there will be civil and rest. There will be a really categorised concerning economic effect.

And you think that forces the governments to just fall to put and give him some yes.

I don't know for sure is what are they going to do from a face saving move perspective, what they or the the the west ukraine, we are gonna to pouch so much money into the ukraine uh to make them feel OK about what we're gona ask them to do in order to remove um or to end the crisis.

And so there's going to be this huge check, this huge investment in ukraine, the western investment in ukraine, the the support mechanism for the country, for the people left behind in order to get this thing resolved. And so my guess is huge amount of money from the west, N, E, U, going into ukraine. Ukraine agrees to let putin keep some regional and assets put in agreement to remove themselves s from certain regions and give up certain assets. Sanctions are partially lifted, but they're partially lifted enough to get the flow of gas going and to get .

the economy turning again about any final looks here as we turn around the base here on this, a blesses learned and how to avoid this.

the nature, you may want to find a clinic. C, from july, where I said the tip of the sphere in the fall was to be european. Eric.

crisis oil is at one hundred and five box barrel. Russia I S basically trying to break the back of europe by now messing with their net gas supplies um the german energy minister yesterday said that if that happens, IT could be a contagion equivalent to lemon brothers. With respect to energy, you're already starting to see food riots, food insecurity, energy and security, rampant inflation, uh sorer gn default.

And you have to ask yourself like how are we going to really turnout ate this whole thing and prevent a much bigger contagion like freebies? Just talk to about if russia decides to play hard ball against europe or america. We Better hope that it's a mild winter because very quickly you can go from plus one million barrels to mind us two .

in a harby yeah. My final thoughts of the following, which is that I think that the european system is going to be put on stress because there are really a bunch of different countries with very different incentence right now um where some countries are in desperate need of energy. Some countries can probably Steve IT off for little bit longer. Other countries are so additional focused on their position on russia over above a any source of energy that they may need or don't have. So I just think like this is a really good point to take a step back and realize that in all of these conflicts, sadly, whenever you have, like all of these very complicated countries fighting very complicated cause, it's really important to understand what these traders are because ultimately, what we're learning in europe is that irrespective of what you merely an equally believe is right in the ukraine, the minute that that affects you and just and you said this, what is that that you are only one meal .

away from the revolution. And I think IT would be you're only like five days away from having no heat before people write on the .

street is probably the equip. But but that's the lesson, which is that at the end of the day, IT is when you're in a position of comfort, you can focus on forward and outlooking moral um attributes and ethical perspectives that matter of the minute that you are affected at home where you cannot take care of your children or heat your house all batch. And I think this just goes to show you that if you're going to sort of engage in proactive foreign policy, you need to make sure that domestically you don't have any accuse heels and your pat of massive C, C, heel, which is energy. And then to this much more .

seriously going into next year, because able to that is .

the dominant narrative. There is a symbolistic binary that has been set up, that this is a war between autocracy and democracy, and that's all there is to IT. And my point is that this conflict that has always been more complicated than that.

okay. And if you really want to understand this conflict, you have to go back and understand the history of IT. And you know, the american media and the british media, they based act as if the whole thing began on every twenty forth.

For a good example of this, there was an excEllent piece by Williams Perry, who has bill clintons defense secretary. okay? He said how the us.

Lost russia and how we can restore relations. And he talks about how we can chart away ford for peace, which I think is your question. What peri points out remembers again, he was a cleans defense sector in the thousand nine hundred and ninety.

He almost resigned in protest over nature expansion east ward. This is basically a contradiction of the verbal assurances that James Baker and present George Walker bush had given gorbio chaff that we would not expand nato one inch east ward in any event. That's when nature expansion began, was the late nineties.

Peri was against IT because, like George kennan, like former ambassador, the server union James matt lock, he understood that IT would be provocative. IT would be seen as a provocative move by russia. Okay, he was against that policy.

The other thing he points out is that in the thousand nine hundred and nineties, the russian economy collapsed because they moved off of soviet system, and we did absolutely nothing to help them. As a result of that, we break the conditions for a strong man to emerge who basically prioritize the restoration of russian pride, dignity and strength. Okay, so he points out the ways that our policies help create putin.

I think what he basic suggestion that was the way forward is, look, we have to realize that the security architecture of europe was crafted in the late nineties and early two thousands at a time when russia was flat on its back. Okay, what are the russians basically demanding? What are their demands? Prior to this war?

There were two things they really didn't like. okay?

Number one was they didn't want ukraine limited to nato. And the number two is they didn't want american missiles right on their border that could hit moscow in five minutes. Okay, those were there two demands.

The fact the matter is we never were willing to negotiate at all on those two demands at all, and instead we basically declaimed they were a pretext by the russians, for in an invasion will look, we never earn the right to call those a pretext. If you want to call them a pre text, you take those issues off the table. Then if the russians invade, you know their liars, the truth, the matter is .

we refuse and we never ay. And so I ve never know. I don't disagree with about that point. okay?

The big and .

U I need the the european union.

Is, I think this issue is so much deeper. Okay, listen, one of the problems we have in this country is out in a war doesn't work out. We just posted.

We never talk about afghanistan more. We never talk about iraq anymore. We understand they were gigantic mistakes, but who is analyzing why they happened? Who, whose responsible for the failure?

The fact that matters has been no accountability. The same people who drove our disastrous foreign policy in the middle east are the same people who have driven our ukraine policy in eastern europe. There is no country, not just that, is the foreign icy te in this country.

okay. So is yeah okay. So my point is this, and that sounds to me like you're worrying to now say what compromise we find to get out this war. Okay.

since i'm trying to avoid work from the beginning, I do think we did not play the piece. Hey, if nato is not here, if we don't let them in nato and we take that off the table, we move these troops back from the border and we don't know if they ever .

offer IT that or not. Information came the last couple.

So obviously they should have offered that. I mean, the real issue here is dependency on dictators for energy. Because if he, if he did not have the ability to yet that gas chain, if he didn't have that nod, he would be needed.

right OK. But we knew that, we knew that. So if you're playing.

you're not even saying and accurate, it's if he didn't have nod, it's that doesn't exist without an entire other counterparty agreeing to.

I agree, if if germany had kept their news going and if they had made other plans, perhaps with a milk or all over the united states.

I may do not .

matter. A dependency on the other side. And energy .

in the beginning of nuclear begin for decades.

And talk. J. K. One of the chAllenges is if everyone create independency on all of their supply, then there is no export market for countries that benefit from exports because they have a surplus. And so we see this around the world with food, with energy, with .

manufacturing.

If there was no market for oil and a lot of countries, but a lot of countries that do not have energy stocks locally would not be able to acquire energy stocks. And so more free, more and make sense. If you're .

saying if we lost our use of oil, that would make IT cheaper, which means that developing countries would pay less.

Jack out, just just let me finish my point for one second. In every country you are either, uh, an importer and exporter. You an importer of manufacture your goods or an exporter of manufactured goods. You're an importer of energy, your exporter of energy and importer of food and exporter of IT doesn't matter. And we often use this as a way to characterize the leadership of these countries as being bad when we end up in conflict with them. IT doesn't matter that this person is a that there's an autocracy on the other side, or if there's a democracy on the other side, at the end of the day, if there is a global trade agreement, if there is a supply agreement and that supply agreement gets broken, it's both parties fault for being dependent on the supply agreement and then allowing conflict .

to think what your change accurate and explain why um reasonable parties um who are democracies if they get into a trade dispute, generally do not invade each other others countries. So that's where your argument breaks down IT would be absolutely anta tic if the lesson .

the european union learned here was let's not be dependent.

What did the united ik?

He said that democracies do not invade. And I be, I said democracy and democracies.

two democracies that are in a trade war, are generally active. We invaded afghanistan of nine eleven, okay, and the the first iraq war we invaded, we protected um await right. And so you know I am not here to justify every worthy united has been and i'm just talking about in this situation the eu. Loring your dependency and if you're going to Lorry your dependency at any country, you'd start with the autocratic and you'd .

start with the dictor ships is not not logical to you. Free liberal according neo liberalism is called economic interdependence theory, which is that as nations become more interdependent with each other.

they're less likely to go .

to the perfect example. Example that is that I became rich. They become more democratic that and worked, yes, say economic inter dependent theory as a workout so well either.

So this is a core fAiling. Now you're modifying the theory to say, well, only economic inner depends among democracies, fine. But that was not the view.

That was not the view for the last twenty years. IT was the court time. We make change if we make ourselves dependent on these other countries.

And somehow it's going to lead to peace. No IT. Actually, this LED to dependency was a foolish policy.

We should be energy independent. You europe should have an energy independent. They should not have made them.

I do agree .

that was great.

but a proponent of people. Eric independent, the reason I think people can be energy independent today is because of technology like nuclear. And I think that all these, every country in the world should find a way to get energy independent.

I'm also an advocate of global trade. I am an advocate because I think trade enables economic progress. IT allows the consumer to get the cheapest product possible and for the producer to find a market for the products that they make. And that there is an element of this, which is energy, but energy doesn't need to be a trade trade market as much anymore because of technology, manufactured goods, food. We still have been cracked, ed.

and get.

we are then in agreement.

Yeah, I know this is this is something in silver point, but I just want to say that historically there's been no basis for believing in economic interdependence theory. If you go back to war, war one, germany in the U. K, where each other other's largest trading partner before a war one didn't stop.

If you going in a war, war two, I think russia's biggest trading partner was germany, up until the moment when a hitler invade to them. So listen, economic inter dependence has never, has never IT doesn't get. At the point is there's very little historical basis for believing that economic inter dependence prevents wars, which, by the way, that really speaks to the foolishness of our china policy. But look.

this is my your question sets up with with the china policy because I think this is a very important discussion we've discovered, which is energy independence is one thing, and then you have trade, which is another.

And does this actually push off wars? Do we actually know that we we might have actually push off a war with china because we make iphones together? Could we have been in a conflict earlier if we weren't so independent? And have we actually pushed out potential conflict with with the benefit .

of hindsight? What we can see is that our chinese policy of interdependency really was called productive engagement, was a complete and unmitigated disaster. Why IT was? Because we made china rich.

You go back to the beginning of dung shopping, begin ginning his economic forms. The ever chinese made two dollars a day. Now the economy is roughly the same size as ours.

And how are they using their new fund economic wealth to build up their military, their navy? They are basically militarizing. The south china see their basic being aggressive towards to our neighbors. We fed that chinese tiger until he became a dragon that was capable of chAllenging us for global prevalence. That was a foolish, foolish strategy. The fact the matter is that, and listen, this is a mistake that economic make, is that they only look at whether trade create surplus as opposed to the distribution of those benefits. And the fact the matter is that china benefit to proportionally far more than we did from the china trade of the last we've made on this pockets.

I think freebody made IT is that we lifted five hundred million people. I think I made IT as well out of object poverty in china. But at your point, yes, I have created .

we have created a return we've created at the return of of great power rivalry. We have created a competitor to the us. Who has roughly almost our same size economy. And that is going to chAllenge us for privacy in and we diplomacy.

we need very sophisticated diplomacy because this situation of china, it's it's not a clear path.

why? Why is that that you think that we diplomate with china when we didn't need IT with russia?

No, I do that. We did. I fully conceded that we should have avoided. We should have take a note of the table. I said that from day one.

Listen, it's really important to not just say that, oh, we failed to play chess here, that this policy isn't working. Like, let's not forget how we gone this conflict. We gone to this conflict because the administration said, I think there are four main pillars to our current ukraine ine strategy.

Number one, that ukraine could basically defeat russia if we basically just gave them weapons that has not happened yet. Number two, the administration said that sanctions would be weaken russia, maybe even destabilize its leadership and collapse this economy. That has not happened.

The rubles at all time high. And because gas by sick on up so much, the economy has suffer, but on the whole, still doing pretty well. The third contention that was made by advocates of this proxy war is that the sanctions would hurt russia more than europe.

That is not happen. Europe is already hurting more than russia. And it's about with winter coming, it's going to hurt even more.

And then the last thing, the last contention that was made, our support for ukraine would rally the world around us and with strength in the western alliance. And I think we are starting to see is that the west alliance is structuring. And you see these gigantic protests and prog in these other counties.

So listen, these worthy pillars of our ukraine policy, and they have all turned out to be flared and wrong, and they're becoming more wrong by the day. And yet there is no real appraisal of our policy that's coming out of washington or london or paris. none. These leaders are saying that there is a problem. So I think we're heading for not just an economic crisis, but of the local crisis in europe, because the fundamental tension between the needs of these people, which is to basically preserve their economy and to stay warm and their homes and the etiology, their leaders were financially committed to waging a proxy organs, russia, instead of finding a diplomatic outcome that was available last year, IT was available in january, was even available in march, April. That disconnect is the fundamental problem.

Alright, let's go come on to talk .

about come on there is no word on how much money she's raised for her private equity from from russian old aging. The firm was covered with sixteen year Carole veteran j. Salmons, who run dea day ops.

And people may not know this, but king found its skin that her undergarment company in three and eight IT was last value at three point two billion dollars. SHE is obviously got the largest following. And is the bigelow influencing the world? Three or twenty nine million followers on instagram alone.

our friend gave her this should be to just just okay.

So those are two examples of people who can put a consumer package good in the world and make IT number one instantly. Gavin uh Baker, a friend of hours, uh, tweet a that he had massive value in this exact regard. A what do you think, boys, is he going to have?

Here's why I think this is so important. go. I I have a really strong belief that in the next thirty years or so, all traditional brands are gonna die.

And I think that um what we're seeing happening right now with the power of um democratized media like us creating a podcast, there are hundreds and now thousands of individuals who have stood up and created their own brand and their own presence because of the content that they create on twitch, on twitter, on youtube and seta on podcasting and as a result they become the trusted sources of influences and it's wither called influencers and ultimately these influencers are becoming the brands they can like. mr. Bees launched the chocolate bar, became like the number one chocolate bar in the country.

He just opened up a burger restaurant last week. Number one showed one no more than that, like a hundred thousand or something. He was insane.

IT was like the number one burger restaurant opening, a number one restaurant opening in history. Um Kelly, gender launch is a makeup brand, takes off, becomes this billion dollar brand kim cardiac I A. And launches a clothing brand, becomes the three billion dollars.

And these are not just brands, their businesses. And here's what I think is the most president m and a transaction of twenty twenty two. And you guys can tell me i'm crazy.

I think the most important M A deal twenty twenty two was when pen gaming box bar to sports. Because IT shows that every consumer package good or every consumer services business ultimately needs to be a content business. And if you don't naturally have content creation in your blood, you have to go and buy a content business or you are gonna die.

And that's why being all traditional brands that aren't oriented and built around content creation as their primary differentiating foundation will not survive and will not be able to compete effectively. And instead, what we're going to see is influencers and um individuals that create content, build and distribute consumer goods and consumer services in a more efficient way because what they've got distribution built in distribution is the number one problem with all consumer services and all consumer goods. So I think in the future of advertising, all advertising and marketing gets replaced by content creation.

And content creation direct consumers through the the social media platforms becomes the mechanism by which people are aware of and buy goods and services. So that's why adding the deal is so important. And I think it's it's another one of what we're seeing in twenty twenty two, which is the stacking away towards the end of nameless, faceless brands and the evolution of .

the influences. I think king cardan is incredible. SHE is an incredible business woman. And the fact that he can stand up what would probably be like a multiple lion, the private that pretty fun um and Frankly, the company is achieved.

Western has um a really compelling chance of being successful because SHE can basically core so much visibility and notoriety and awareness of a brand into that company that that capable, if I was a direct road, of course, give whatever he wants. So that's the first thing. And the second thing I would says that I think what three per says is completely right.

I think write a point in time where the biggest thing that if you want to build the consumer business, my advice to you as an entrepreneurs, you need to build direct distribution and scale because what that translates into what kim cardi improves, what mr. Beef is proving, yes, it's all about subsidized cake for you don't cost a cost uh cost question for you are not paying dollars to facebook and google, but instead because you have direct distribution in a relationship with tens or hundreds of millions of users, you can pour them in to different experiences. And when you can do that is basically virtually zero cost, your entire margin structure, are you able to consumer businesses changed overnight.

So that's what they prove. They prove that you need to first build a brand and then you can put you to convert that brand into distribution function. And they did basically call concert services into IT. And one of the services that turns out is now a private equity fund. So I think it's incredible and I hope she's super successful.

Sax, you think this influencer strategy is here for i'm going to have a major impact on the venture business prety. We're soaking IT.

but I think it's pretty interesting in the consumer space for the reason, freeburg said, which is distribution is so hard. So creating a great product is hard distributions even harder.

And this a realization I had me many years ago and which is when I started doing hammer and then, you know, craft started focusing on SaaS, which is at least when you do A B to b product, you know, software, the service, you can charge enough money for IT that you can get a sales team to pencil. Other words, you charge and enterprise enough money for the software that you can then pay a sales person to go on sell IT. So there is always a distribution model built in for B2B.

And that's why i've always like that is there's a playbook there. Or if you just build a good enough piece of enterprise software, a good enough prada, there's always can be a distortion for IT. However, that's not true with consumer because consumer products are usually ad base.

You can generally charge that much if you can charge at all. They have high turn rates. And so therefore, B2C onl y wor ks if you can fin d a v er y low cos t, scalable distortion channel.

And I think that's what to fierce pointing. That's what the card actions are. Offerings clearly worked for their own products, I guess, will see how extensible IT is.

But this is really the key chAllenge with all consumer stuff, is just how do you find a very cheap of distributing. In the past, the consumer products i've been involved in, like pp alor investing in social networks like facebook, they were viral. They were exponentially viral. So they were able to basically grow virally for free. So you either have to have an extraordinary virally each of the product or some other distribution trick that allows you scale at low cost because you can't afford to sales team.

And what we're seeing is, is the base of doing that is to create content. Mister beese created content for years before he built a big enough distance to do that. Kim hardacre ended content for years before he had a distribution to do that.

Dave porter, noy and bars to sports. I mean, the guy dave partnoy and this rs. J in colo. canas. A seriously, I mean porn without a rating pizza.

And you know now he has all these other kind of you know media and content kind of um branches of his platform, but it's all content creation. And on top of that content, everybody good at a freeboard. That's the other problem.

I get IT, but that's not what i'm saying and that's my point. So let's say coca cola a tried to build a content business today. How good would they be? Not very good. That's why they're going going to end up dying or they're .

onna end up meeting to be a really interesting concept. I mean, think mr. Bee burger could be mcDonald. yes.

And that's what i'm saying. That's my point.

That's why open up and saying when you think about IT, if mr. Beast had five thousand franchise.

But this is exactly my point that I said at the beginning. Every traditional brand will get destroyed in thirty years, and they will get destroyed by the influencers that have built audience through content creation and now creating businesses on top of that, that compete with the traditional incubators, not technology advantage businesses. I'm talking about core consumer goods and services.

They also have to pay gaming pen gaming does bedding. There's no real advantage in bedding. You build a sport spoke about in the reason 和 gaming boat barco is they now have an audience that they can drive to their sports boots， right? And the same will happened .

was to make a product, though. I mean, that's the other chAllenge here is can you also be a product of what can you be a virtuoso in building the products in addition to being an influence? And I think that what kim gets right, SHE makes great product.

And mr. Beast, his first burger was not good, but now this new burger, from what I understand, is awesome. So you have to have both things switched on.

Think about, think about what's easier and what's harder. What's easier building an audience of two billion or a billion people that listen to watch you every week or building a great burger? It's a lot harder to build .

the audience and to the product really hard.

Yeah, it's not i'm not talking about complicated cards and stuff or electronics. I'm talking about basic consumer goods, cereal, beverages, food, sic, all stuff. But I am bar betting is not a differentiate and service offering to consumers.

So ultimately, how do you differentiate? It's the audience that you've now built, the brand you've built through the audience because of content creation. And so this is why I just want to point out, distributed content creation, I think, represents one of the most profound investing opportunities over the next decade.

Because if you can give individuals the ability to make high quality content, they can scale an audience that that that now can be monotoned in a thousand ways, not just putting figure out spots on youtube, but there's a thousand products you as an influence, or can build on top of your audience or self audience. boom. IT really changes the whole landscape for C, P, G, N services. And not to bring .

work everything back to mister bees, but a large number of his videos s he told us um he lost money on so the videos at some point started losing his money and IT was an investment in that britt and you know it's it's clearly gonna off now I saw a lexus ohana from um you read fame and adventure capes seven, seven, six and fun he went to go see the burger place and he's like, what like they were at that point time ten thousand people online.

Mister bez had to tell you, please do not show up which of course, and why do that people to show up? Anybody have plugs or anything that they want to get after chest sacks? Anything else? Get out. You OK get a plug.

There is a an epidemic right now of the overprescription of ept mies to children who are diagnosed. Hd, um. IT is an enormously important issue that doesn't just touch kids anymore but now also touches adults.

You have seen a lot of really kind of bad companies that are overprescribing the stuff get shut down and get sanctioned. Um so I just wanted to let anybody who's listening know, and this is me, talk to my book. So take this with a grain of soul.

There is a company that i'm involved in that has a video game that has been approved by the F T. A. To be uh a useful treatment for kids who have been diagnosed with eighty H D. So if you have an eight, two, eleven year old, you can go in talk eupeptic rican to find out about the solution is called a killing and IT will allow you to prescribe them the video game that they play thirty minutes.

It's want to make sure people hear the name is a kill ly A K I L. So if you would do a google search for a kill ly A K I.

Go and read the label had the doctor decide, okay. So i'm not telling you to go to this, but i'm masking .

to you just into IT.

But the idea is that there are drugs that affect your brain. And now we are increasingly able to design software that exquisitely targets certain aspects of your brain and able to train them. And this is really the first example of such a thing that the F D A, who has reviewed all kinds of clinical data um has decided to approve.

And so is launching in the next few weeks. We've already writing prescriptions to kids in every single state of the united states. And so to the except that yours deciding what to do, or you have child, or you have somebody in your family that is of age yourself, to encounter, to learn, that is a plug is great .

I think should I K about work on and an incredible the number of kids on this, you know A D H D drugs, attention drugs, depression drugs, anie drugs, IT is out of control. There is an listen, I don't want to tell parents at a parent um but I will say this is becoming a dependency.

And the number of drugs we saw that new york where where they put this one girl on ten drugs, they're prescribing multiple drugs and we don't know exactly what the long term effects of children using these are. There are other solutions. I'm not judging any parent, i'm not judging any teachers who was advising this, but this country and a society needs to really look deeply at this issue and say, should children, because we didn't go on these drugs of americans, they didn't exist and they haven't existed for all humanity. And we need to think, what kind of experiment are we running on? Ten, twenty, thirty people of kids in some schools .

stating something so incredibly important. You know, when you have kids that are proteins and teenagers, their physiology is changing dramatically. And all of a sudden, when you introduce a secondary chemical compound into all of that, you're exactly right.

We don't really know what the outcomes are. And right now, I think a lot of people are worried that the overprescription of drugs in this kind of condition is gonna create the next version of an open pandemic. They were epidemic. And I think like that's the thing.

That's exactly the analogy. Moth, right now, this statistic is crazy. This is in the new york express. Ript, a mellow pharmacy, recently reported that prescriptions of entire presence for teenagers rose thirty eight percent from twenty fifteen to twenty nine. We are prescribe bing these at an alarming rate.

I have many parents of my circle who have kids who had what I would consider modest behavioral issues or modest attention issues. And they talk to me about this. And they felt, in multiple cases, like they were being bullied or pressured by teachers to put their kids on behavioral drugs because their kids were behaving ten percent as badly as I did in middle school or or high school.

This is being used. I believe this. My personal belief. I know there are some kids who need these drugs, or assume that there are, but I think this is being used to keep kids in their seats and to make IT easier for parents to have to deal with what are Normally the hardships of teenager, you know, teenagers.

And I just be very careful parents about the extent to which you you know, you might be being pressured, perhaps parents of time they felt bullied into giving their kids these drugs IT really is infuriating to me. I think it's really great that people, people should look into IT exercise, talking to your kidney. Things also work.

We have gun culture. We have a guide council at at our school tell me that they thought that one of my children should just get put on these drugs. IT was the most random statement, and all I could get from her was that he just didn't want to deal with the fact that every now, then, this kid would just, you know, the exuberant you, I want to kill their spirit.

I had the same conversation. I don't want to get into IT too much. But you know, I think that these teachers now, and i'm not saying as all teachers, they are like it's just easier to manage kids who are on focus, energy, drugs and then there are some parents who want their kids to do really good on storied ed testing.

I would have been Better on standardize testing if I was on at a role, or whatever these attention drugs are. We, everybody would score temperament Better. But what does he do to the quality of your wife long term? That's the question we need to ask about this stuff and and we don't have answers for I don't want to be tom cruise on this pocket, but there are other ways to keep you know kids healthy and to deal with these issues.

And and I think these things are to say they're overprescribed is going to be a huge understatement when we will look at this like the Price, I guarantee IT. I think that's exactly if you use dog icc, right? And people thought they were doing the right thing.

All these people have pain. The drug manages pain and then they found out like, okay, you this drug also could make you an added and could ruin your life. Uh, great job on that investment.

And I and I hope IT work. Thank you. Ah thank anybody. Is your portfolio anto give a shout out to we might have to get something on this fucking POS ons were leaving seven and million dollars on the fucking table and you guys want you to let me run on in summit .

too so I can get a half milli lug .

but no company you rested in you for. How about you? Super gut? Can we get some super gut? And here bars takes great food. I ve.

I really just orto another pack of them. I'm good. Thank you.

cious. Super god. Do you have super god?

Anyway, this is, i'm having a actually one of my companies where am having a lot of these conversations about how do you actually avoid just buying ads on facebook and, uh, google and how do you actually build an audience, right? How you ultimately convert your customers by creating content.

And so this was a originally unique right?

And you change yeah and based on the science around uh around resistance starting how changes the gut bio. And so um but this is general among the board of a couple of d to c companies.

And IT is univerSally the conversation right now because in the last year, the cost of d to sa uh direct consumer marketing on facebook and google double tripled and a lot of the unit economics are falling apart on d to sa businesses because of you know costs a lot more to acquire the customer than you make from them. And so everyone scrambling to figure out, okay, how do I I acquire customers. And that's where this content creation strategy is becoming a critical linchpin for most consumer businesses. Now it's a really important part.

I think a couple of us are investors. In eight sleep, they were like, please let us advertise on all in. I, no, but i'll shot you out here. Hit, great.

I have a plugged, but I want to save IT.

So like, I can drop a plug. E.

for one. No, the product hasn't launched yet.

Give me like a month if anybody wants to be a venture investor. Jin.

ico, stop to come to one. My way.

IT was just set up. IT was to set up. I wanted to around up a plus, like a mining.

So it's been generous work.

planned work. I got you on the .

hook for yours. What was your man?

Jacon.

if you want to call in up, we're everybody got, let's you know.

we should do a call in. We should all do like an after hours where we take questions .

from the audience.

That would be great. I would do that. I would do that. Can I get a point for like that.

this out that that was another deal you turned down.

like the ukraine deal.

This is a theme here, is that you turn down deals you later regret. Then by you deal.

I take a deal. How hard tomorrow is crashing?

I look, look for what time is IT there?

It's like a lemon thirty right the .

night to eleven thirty. It's a one thirty. I'm losing my body doesn't invite for.

uh, A M A for the four of .

us on calling that OK.

I just remember all .

of maybe .

you A M.

A yeah, I I show up, but I will be able to do IT.

I'm back in the united states tomorrow. Play in four, eight hours.

two hours in the airport will pick you up, the .

airport will pick, the airport .

will pay .

chinese port.

rainman.

We open sources to the .

fans and crazy.

We should all just get a room big gear because sexual tension to release them. Here we want to get marking.