Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
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Check and do you, anna, go to the bedroom, knocked on the dorn way. tomato. Where is he? You're in his house. Go get him at the office.

He went to the office. He's here. You to the office. We're trying to find your math at the moment. Here's OK.

Are you wearing my god damn sweater? What is? What is? Is that my, my house? My first? No, I am so tilted. Where is my wife? What the?

But don't worry about your wife.

No, no.

Money at this point is great.

Where is not?

Hold on a pulling out.

Take off touch my wife. oh.

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you know your .

cashmore sweater so, so hard, but I will be .

done. I'll see you. Let me know. Have lunch in the garden, lunch in the door. Where are something simple?

Is that the casson's smarter with the why no horne buttons? That is what, though.

I did some of shopping while I was here. I did a little shopping. So I just, I filled up, you know, I just, these these s ops are great because I don't have this of my house.

I have every soups. I from the, but you know what? I agree, this sweaters not so great. I just don't touch that sweet cases. This .

one I .

put IT .

off. You know what? This, i'm sure. What great. But any .

other options .

licious come around here. Let's n this is that looks like a deep poll, one thousand and eighty sex chat. Uh, what did I mean? This looks like it's worth opening.

I mean, IT IT was in the right that said, don't open, right? It's no good to put up and out. Yeah, but you know what?

Poor half out, because I like the body and half the texture, so just poor half into the garden, the spinach. And then i'll take the bottom. Thank you. Take free sake .

of my sweater. Oh my god. So brutal.

We open sources to the fans and .

they just got lazy.

To give a good night sleep at to move house. How did you sleep last night? I slept so good.

Let me tell something I will compare. I sleep here tonight. The lady of sax manner just texted me, and you would like me to stay there tonight.

So you know what? I'm in the valley. I get a lot of different invite. I have to spread the wealth. So i'll be dining with saxes tonight, and I may be staying at saxes.

So that sex hide the asp silk from the bathroom.

I am hoping he doesn't have so i'm hoping .

this when he stole the puppy winkle from my plane.

That was good. Yeah, that, I mean, I was that I was three quarters of a bottle. It's to sit there. I mean, when an ugly drink.

IT sax, how do you prepare for J, K, L coming over to your house to visit and spend the night? Mean.

what do you do something that's not bolted down as basically it's like a gift. It's like a free big.

How do you think I got that love seat in my kitchen? I got that love. See off the kitchen that came from sexy designer. Yeah, I just two guys, my brother josh game. We took IT out the back.

I was fine. We took IT out the back.

If I guess i'm living with something.

Why do you want to moderate today? Your on fire, just moderate the show.

Well, no, I was just, I was to be traveling and I wanted to do a good job. And you know, I thought maybe you you would love to get your chance at moderation. So lead us off your fearless day.

Free birth of moderate. So that is the announcement to start the show, Jason, taking a week off from moderating gonna. A best gusty gonna be a participant on the panel this week and we take this off.

So i'll be moderating this week. We're going to do A A couple housekeeping points. First off, very excited to announce that we are doing another live event after the success of the summit during september.

We had great content. We had great parties ever. We had a great time, but a lot of people said they wish they could have been a part of IT.

So we are going to trying to do more alive events. So we have pulled one together very last minute, but we are going to make an incredible saturday, december seven in san Francisco, around five P. M. We're gona do the all in holiday spectacular at the palace of hine arts in a rents go. It's going to be incredible.

Tickets are going on sale today at all in 到 com slash events， not gonna want to miss IT is gonna a really fun show on stage with us in some guests, followed by open bar, food truck, D J casino party IT should be a really great time, a real fun winter wonderland after party after the stage show and so we're really excited to have folks come and join us um at the palace fine arts on december seven. It's going to be awesome. You guys excited?

Yeah.

yeah. I have a question. yeah.

Is our attendance .

apart .

of this thing? I knew that was coming? I know that I don't want .

to be able told the party sex.

everybody the world wants to do. Subject.

I thought I was dying for a podcast. I don't know what I I need to do all these events.

This is literally a two minute drive from your house in 3Francesco， we are gonna ad you in a van. J. K, on his brothers are onna. Come and graduate you in the back. Right down there. We're going to prop you up on stage for a couple hours, and then we will put you back in the van and you can go home.

The good news says we might drink some to quiller sex. You might have some to kill a so you something to look for you and you get to see your friends, you get to see your friends. That's worth right the essay.

Now this what you say, yes, no, come on he says no.

come but you listening.

I am happy thing you guys through zone, you know we don't we can .

favor holiday favorite list, yna mic. Pendered he celebrate anna icc for six days every year. Party is new ritual. Can not see anybody for six months. Bring back the pandemic.

Thanks you serving.

Log you to I I mean, as possible. I meet all. Not to anything that nice though, for J Q.

Keep IT simple burgers and dots. You put your order what .

you put your order.

You know I talk to I talk to chef and um he said Morales, not in season, but we are on the cow and of black so we have that locked in but we're too early from o let's get feedback .

about last night ten. I mean.

let's be honest, cya is an underrated cut of meat. It's a very people say it's like a service able meat, but when cooked properly with proper technique, IT will stand right up there with a rib or.

But it's like it's like it's the brazilian word for IT but it's like a specific kind of me chanted at last night. Honestly, David, i'm telling you, it's Better than any other cut of meat you could get if it's properly made. Shawn crushed IT yesterday, but IT is bananas.

It's so good. No, I think .

that more than abi.

Yeah, I like more than ruby a one hundred percent. I like IT more than the new york strip. That's terrible, fully terrible. No fat.

It's got A A fact cap on IT, which sometimes be a little overwhelmed for people, but chone did a great job of kind of meeting as half way. So IT wasn't so fatty. Just a nice. There are fat, Chris, perfectly cooked to perfection. Carrots were great.

I have was great.

I had no notes. You I talked to show after had no notes.

So to start .

ridiculous .

to girl.

yes.

So I think .

you just, I think you just lost three swing states.

If you're gonna do something, go pol, I would go to the new york, can find to deal the new york in an old people. But well done. David sacks, that is unacceptable.

Shout out two roles and belt s are two best take of pops in manhattan in my estimation.

So lets get started.

Welcome here. Why don't we call an ongoing tonight to go for stake? Opp, yeah, just throw out the ah the mister and wo just we do boys .

welcome to the all in pod. This is episode two o one and we're going to kick IT off by talking about what's gone on in markets, which is one of the kind of most interesting, chAllenging and ig mas of the day. Oh, or maybe it's not maybe it's pretty simple, but there seems to be a diversion and assets that is pretty unusual that hasn't been seen in in some time.

And a lot of market commentators, analysts, economists are of trying to figure out what's going on and why. The first is that bonds are falling. The U.

S. Treasury yields as a result of response uh, declining and Price have Spiked up. We nearly hit the ten year yell dropping as low as three point five in september, obviously leading up to the the the big city rate cut. And as of, uh, this morning, we're seeing the ten year yield over four a quarter. At the same time, we're seeing gold Prices Spike.

So gold is typically a safe asset and gold has moved considerably, as you all can see here from the start of the year wears around two thousand, announced up to twenty seven and fifty, announce an incredible run up, one of the best performing assets of the year. And then finally, in a market like this, you would typically see pain and equities. But we've seen the opposite.

The S. N. P. Five hundred is up considerably, has been on this endless run up all time high.

But and let's .

a kind body cares about .

gold show big.

Well, there's a lot more asset to the move in the gold in bitcoin. But here's bitcoin at today this point sixty take that at .

the beginning of the year. How was IT just put down on second, you might .

give us your read on what's going on.

There's there's another couple of nuances year that I think are important. The U. S.

Dollar complex is thriving, which means like the U. S. Dollar is strong. Back and yields are rising. And then another thing that I look at is this thing called put calls you.

So basically like on baLance, our people hedging in the short term and in the bond market, they owe a lot more puts than they do calls. I think that this is the entire financial infrastructure of the world repositioning itself from what was a toss up election to a trump win. And when you look at why, it's because when you forget the candidates themselves for a second.

But if you think about the actual policies and where the spending will occur, I think that there has been a very clear decision that the triumph economic plan will drive Better growth than the hair is plan. And if you think that there is more growth coming, typically, what will come with that is a little bit more inflation, the risk premium that you're going to need in a high growth environment is higher. What is risk premium? That is, how much do I want to invest for risky asset verses a safe asset.

And so all of these things are coalition. So I think that the short term take away that I have just looking at all of this data, is that in the economic distribution of outcomes, this is now tilted overwhelmingly to a trump in. And this is not an emotional statement or what I want to happen, but this is just an observation, how tens of trillions of dollars of self interested financial actors have now reposition their risk.

And if trump wins, which IT looks like she's increasingly going to do, and if he wins by the margins that IT looks like it's going to do, you're gonna see a lot of these things exacerbate golds gonna up more probably the coin will probably go the short term economic upside for the economy will probably get reflected in higher equity Prices, but IT will also push out long term rates. The inflation picture becomes a little bit more here, but I think that that's what's happening. I think that the the financial markets surprising .

in a trump in sorry, just to understand Better, why is gold to go up in a trump in?

I think in the short term, what happens is that you see more economic growth, but in the medium term, inflation goes up and so you want to hedge, right? So it's it's more about a draw baLance of assets. So in the short term, you'll belong the things that will generate earnings, but in the medium to long term, you want to head yourself. So big coin and goal, I think, will trade that way.

Let's pull up the video clip. Paul tute Jones.

given all of the things you're saying, are you off buying gold and bitcoin?

All roads lead to inflation. We're gonna end up, if so, which is always .

lead to inflation. Therefore.

gold is a good investment. Is big coin a good investment to you? I'm long go.

I'm long bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously underworld, so and long comedies. I think most Young people find their inflation hedges with the aztec.

That's also been great. It's probably some combination. I probably have some basket of gold bitcoin comedies and masked at something like that. And I know zero fixed cut. If I have not, cash should be very short term sex.

Well, I think, as you heard right there, the key line that paul tute Jones said was all readily to inflation. I mean, that was basically happening right now is that the market is afraid that inflation is not whipped and is gonna surface and the fed may have to pivot from the pivot and raise interest rates. That's why he doesn't want to own or any treasury's.

Separately, another financial legend, stand dunk Miller, gave an interview where he has something like a twenty percent short position in twenty percent of his holdings are short us. Treasury's right now. So he's bedding that there are a long term inflation pressures and that rates are going after rise.

And and you're seeing again that since the fed cut rates on september eighteen th by fifty basis points, that the ten R T bills yield has risen by sixty basis points. So I think my interpretation is that this is less about the election and more about the markets not liking the feds rake up on september eighteen th. I think that in hindsight, IT was too big.

We discussed on the show and I pointed out that the fifty base point cut was contradictory in the sense that the only two times in recent history where the fed began a rate cutting cycle with a fifty best point cut was in two thousand, one in two thousand eight, which were on the verge of pretty big recessions. And so the fed felt like he needs to cut dramatically in order to help stave off those recessions. But that was not power retaliate, what palle said as the economy was doing very well.

So when I said a months ago was with the economies doing really well, why wants you just tipped to into the right having cycle, would say a twenty five base point cut and then see how the market absorbs IT and get another months inflation data? Well, we've gotten another month of inflation data, and it's showing that these are not huge moves, but is showing that inflation and was a course API was a slow bit higher than expected. So again, the market is concerned that inflation is not whipped, that the fed may have been overly precipitous and how IT cut, cut rates.

And then the other thing is they just do not like the long term fiscal picture of the U. S. One other chart we should bring up is interest on the national debt.

What you can see here is that is con. absolutely. Parabolic in the last couple of years are interested in that. So much about like one point three, one point four trillion.

eight years five. Ilan run, right?

Yes, thirty five hundred dollars per american.

please. And at something like twenty and twenty five percent of federal revenue now is going to debt service, and this continues to increase.

Now I think there was an expectation that we would be able to get this line to go back down once we had rate cuts, right? Because if inflations looked and the fed can lower interest rates again, and we can get back to a two percent ten year bond, which is where we were few years ago, then all of them, that national debt service becomes a little bit more reasonable, right? I mean, you can you can service that dad at half the cost, but now IT looks like that may not happen.

So just to wrap this up, I just think that the market doesn't like these fundamentals of the us. Fiscal picture. You've got rapidly increasing debt service costs. You've got an inflation picture that is markey and may not be going away and the bond markets are starting to Price in higher interest rates for longer. And this is why party returns to saying all rosy inflation in the survive drug Millers shorting us treasury's check out.

Do you think either party, uh or either candidate in the presidential election is gonna drive a different outcome in terms of federal spending in the long term impact on deficit and as a result rate?

Well, we look at previous performance as an indicator of future success. The answer is no. They are not going to cut spending. Most of the reports out say they are onna spend another ten trillion in the next administration independent of who you vote for. And I think that's actually what you have to think about here is where does all that money wind up, right? It's certainly not going to trickle down.

And what's probably gonna happen is it's gona find its way into equities, and that's why these equities are so highly because people are recognizing correctly that if we do spend on other ten trillion and go another time rally into debt, that money winds up somewhere. Where does IT wind up government salaries contracts? And if we get attacked, cut as well, that's going to goose.

And I think one party will do a attacks, and then eight, nine, ten trillion in the other party will spend ten trillion. And maybe race taxes a little bit. It's going to net, net into the same place. And then I think what will see on top of that is what I think could be cata classical c contraction in White collar employment in the united states over the next ford ten years next to administrations. And that's gona exacerbate this problem and create, I think, some social tension because we've had record low unemployment.

And so even though people feel bad about the economy generally and and some of that is related to which parties, you know, which party you are part of and how you perceive the economy and all this data, but just brass tacks, you know, we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetime for the past five, ten years, and it's been absolutely fagg lous and salaries have gone up. And this is going to result in, I think, a little bit of austerity measures coming at some point and probably won't come in this next same issues. But certainly the one after that is gonna have to do some bell tiny, and we're gonna have to address this issue because spending to everybody in amErica are having to pay their share of that interest alone is thirty five hundred dollars.

I mean, less that sinking in. You're gona spend for every member of your family thirty five hundred dollars a year in interest that you're part of IT take the one point three trillion, it's just a lot of money. And um if that is the case, uh, it's gonna create a massive bubble in equities again.

And then if you look inside the big companies, three or four years ago, uber, airbnb, google and facebook had more employees or are the same number employees they have now while growing, those companies are all growing twenty percent year over year. So the earnings and the top line of these companies continue to grow while they have a static team size. This is like an extraordinary thing we haven't seen.

So the two pieces here that we haven't seen before is what happens when you put another out of a twenty trillion dollars of debt into the U. S. economy. And what happens when companies, the big one, stop hiring and they just become wildly efficient and become wildly profitable.

And this will be our renters, rentiers, you know, story, where people who have equities and people who own property are going to do fabulous over the next five to ten years. And then the forty percent, fifty percent of people who don't are gonna really be feeling a pinch. Well.

IT does depend also on how ever they are. So just to give you guys a sense, total e household, corporate and government debt which includes state, local and federal. So household debt in the U.

S. About eighteen trillion, corporate deaths about eleven trillion, state, local government deaths three trillion. Obviously the federal debt thirty six trillion. That adds up to wapping, sixty eight trillion dollars of total debt across um the U S, which if you assume a six percent average interest rate, if you got corporate that and household that a little more risky, so Carries a higher rate. That means we're spending about four trillion dollars a year .

of an economy that .

only twenty nine billion a year. To service the debt just to pay the interest on the debt. So fifteen percent of every dollar that trades hands is going towards interest payments on existing leverage.

On existing debt is a highly leverage system. And if you look around the world, this problem is not just the U. S.

ChAllenge global leverage as problem that's now becoming a crisis for, uh, countries everywhere. The U. K. Is waiting on a big budget proposal this week.

Higher taxes is what's going to be in there to make up for a budget deficit, which is currently four point four percent of GDP. The U. K.

Economy is only growing at zero point nine percent a year. France has a major budget crisis underway right now. They're struggling to reduce their deficit from six percent down to five percent of GDP.

And we've got skyrocketing bankcard pies, seventy four percent of people that can work in that country or working and they have and that's because of large social programs that support baLance seven point three percent technical unemployment and uh the raising taxes on four hundred forty firms, four hundred forty companies in the country that make a billion or more in revenue when they quote temporary tax, there's a four percent surge charge on income over five hundred k that's going into effect second home, real state taxes and so on. France is struggling to figure out a way to generate revenue to make up for the shortfall. In brazil, there is a major budget crisis, states a hundred thirty billion dollars in the federal government there.

Inflation is accelerating at four point six percent. Rates are going to go higher and longer, complicating other economic growth opportunities in the country. So um this is becoming kind of a global leverage problem, which might explain the flight to safety and assets like gold and bitcoin.

And um is onna present a lot of real struggles for every global economy? Now the question is that the U. S.

Dollar maintain its reserve status because ultimately, I think that is inevitable that the federal reserve in the united states is going to need to buy the debt. They're gonna to monetize the debt, at which means printing money. There is no one else to buy the debt.

Pull up the china china neck, china's historically been the biggest spire and owner of U. S. treasuries. But here's what's happened in the last couple of years. IT peaked about one point three trillion dollars about ten years ago.

And recently, particularly starting around covet, that began selling down and have been selling down in the accelerated pace. today. China is back to the level they were at nearly fifteen years ago in terms of their treasury holdings, and they have publicly declared that they are selling off U.

S. Treasury's and buying gold instead. So the biggest spire of U. S. Treasuries has kind of left the market or is leaving the market.

Who does that leave? While at the end of the day, the federal reserve has been the kind of buyer of last resort. And if they end up buying treasury's, that's where we have a problem with too many dollars and inflation kicking up.

And so IT feels like a lot of the trades in assets or what's going to a benefit from the inflation. And it's gonna gold. It's going to be bitcoin in some cases because you're pumping more money in the system and it's going to be equity and h, that might explain why equity are moving up as well.

Where do you guys invest here? I mean, china. Like do you care about how the markets position or how your position in this election right now? And based on how we're seeing markets trade and what these kind of micro o indicators are telling us, are you just business as usual, heads down, investing, build as you always have?

Yeah I I think that you can trade these things. And any attempt to do IT is probably a level of false precision where you're gonna lose more money and there is a lot of slippage and even just trying to execute that. I mean, at the beginning of the year, I said the breakout asset was going to be bitcoin.

I think that looks like it's going to be the resounding inflation has Jason, for the next fifty or a hundred years. So that die has been cast. I think you're seeing the last passage of people using gold as a rational economic insurance policy, but I think the future is specifically bitcoin on that dimension.

So I guess you could trade that. You could speculate on that. I think the question that i've been grappling with this in my scenario, what happens if como heroes wins wiped the markets do and I actually think he would reverse a lot of these trends over like the last month.

And hf, like I said, I really do think that there's a repositioning, rebaLance ed component, everything that's happening right now. So I don't think there's much to do unless you have a very specific that you want to make. I will just keep my head down and keep building.

Are you the same place sucks? Are you, are you check out, are you guys .

trading at k he is Better than trying to time the said before all this money and flow all this spending.

right? And that's the key question, right? Like joining what assets you are?

I don't think so. And I I I do think there's another thing that's worth sort of unpacking here because when you do see people feel like the economy is working against them, all kinds of interesting movement start cultural movement eta.

And I think that's what we're seeing in this election, is people who believe in capitalism and free markets and people who don't, people who believe in free speech, people who don't, people who see themselves as victims, victims in the other, people who see them as creating I really study a lot of like what Young people are doing. And I don't know if you guys are watching sort of the entire work movement or the fire movement, which is financial independence, retire early. A lot of Young people now are looking at financial markets, whether it's Robin hood or coin base or Price picks, whatever market is, Young man especially.

And they're saying, I need to control my destiny. I need to this capitalism is not working for me. I need to own equity. I need to make trades and I need to retire early and half experiences because the capital system is broken into some extent. And then there's another group of people who are just anti work, and there was a turn back in the day called neat, not employed, not being educated and not in training, basically the people who are called the unproductively. If you look at the peak engagement and employment in our country in japan has similar trends, uh, although they are probably ten years ahead of us.

Sounds sounds anything but need not we we picked at sixty eight.

sixty nine percent labor participation, and we're ten percent of that may be more. We were at sixty one or sixty two. I think a lot of people are going to give up because the debt is gonna so crushing that the logical thing to do, if you don't think you can get out from under IT, might be to moving with your parents or two with three other people tightened the rebels and enjoy life and go skin and and and go have experiences. And a lot of Young people are electing to do american dream.

So at to your point, the one thing, the one thing that I realized with a lot of Young man that Jason, I think you're you're really hitting the nail on the head, is a lot of them now do not view the job that they do as there only path to economic independence. And if anything, they may do a job.

But then they're actively trading on the side something crypto options, whatever they are on Robin hood, they're using coin base because it's almost like they've separated in their mind that the job they do will never give them the financial independence they want. And so instead, they're going to do that job because they like IT. Hopefully, they love IT.

But then separately, they're going to go speculate to try to make money. It's a really interesting thing because I always been taught you earn your wealth to the job you have. And so if you wanted to make more money, you have to later up and do something different. Yeah, that's not true that that idea has been sort of a couple. Now that's a really interesting change in how people approach work.

I call them jane bet. Like there are the generation that believes on there's A A subset of them. It's not all of them.

A number of them are just quite quitting and they just don't believe in capitalist. And then there's this other group which are like trying to get control. I call them then that because they just want to bet on themselves. And you know, if they don't get react by the financial markets, change trading options, you and doing right.

The other thing i'll say, just in recruiting a bunch of people at eighty ninety over the last three or four months, is there is an enormous difference that I have seen psychologically in the people that are twenty five in order versus the people that are twenty five and under. And I am calling twenty five as a rough number, but there are kids that are eighteen, nineteen, twenty, twenty one years old that are off the charts. good.

They're motives. They are hungry. They're like, let's get after IT. And they are honestly different in the way they approach their job than folks that are in the late twenty years and early thirties.

These things in the first generation who didn't go into dead in college and didn't buy into that like so they might the millennium als ahead of them might have like taken the bullets.

you know yeah, the folks that are in their late twenty early thirties and are not trying to generalized or disparate, but they lack the level of motivation. Again, generally speaking, that the Youngest focus in the workforce have and that also that people in our generation sort of have. So there are sort of sandwich in between a very different way of approaching work. And I and as a result, they stand out and I don't think they're standing out for all the right reasons.

For the .

majority now of Young people, the number I believe and make, if you could pull this up, fifty seven percent of genes want to be influencers as there primary career. Now that the idea of working a job is almost like a secondary option, in the primary option that everyone would strive for is to be, uh, an influencer. And this number has grown considerably, continues to grow. And in fact, if you look at the the rest report, this was out of morning.

Did you say fifty percent of janes aspire to be influencers? correct. OK.

Fifty seven percent as their career.

Or just they want to be influential and build a brand around themselves. I wonder that's what they want to do for a living, their pay they do. They want to be independent and they don't think they believe believe the systems worked against them.

And why wouldn't think the systems ready against you if you win a hundred fifty or two hundred fifty? And that. And you couldn't get a good .

job sex as a successful in. So how would you advise to you on their career choices?

Yeah look, I think that .

believing you're going to an influencer is like believing that you're going to be like a rockstar or movie actor, something like that yeah, it's like I one in a million shot. This is not a great thing to want to design your career around because this is very unlikely to happen. So I think you're Better off finding a career that you're passionate about, but where you're actually adding value.

The world doesn't need fifty seven percent of the population become influence or as kind of crazy. I A, I have a line from five club where Tyler dirt says we've all been raised on television to believe that one day we would all be millionaires and movie gods and rock stars. But we won't and we're solely learning that fact.

And we're very.

very pissed off. And that was nice. That was just, yes. So their head, they're headed for A A fight club like realization about this.

So excited, you advise a Young person on there is this temptation to go and spend all this time making content and pursue that as your career. And that's a life opportunity for you. Now it's more free and open. They would think that perhaps being a movie star or a basketball player used to be.

So I think it's it's just important to recognize that if we ourselves are influencers, the reason why we're not being hit a critical is that none of us here with the possible accept or j, i'll ever set out to be influencers, right? We did something different. We actually had a career and we did something interesting. And then as a result of that, maybe people want to listen to our pod the idea that you can just go be an influencer without having actually done anything interesting. What's your credential for that? So what I would advise is just people should go do something productive and then you know, if that leads to other people wanting to hear from them and that's good, but setting out to be someone that other pills should and to without having any experience or are having done anything productive in your life, it's like, why should we listen to you?

Yeah, one thing I I did build and sell two out of my three business and over the years, but there are ten millions of people making money in the long time as a content creator and is low thousands of dollars in some cases per month.

But if you combine that with people who are gig economy workers and they don't believe in the system because they work really hard, they got this job at google, they went to the office, then they got laid off and nobody cares about them. Now they're getting dragged back into the office. They still have these payments.

And then they look at this other system where, hey, they started to get ten thousand followers. They started to make one thousand dollars a month and three thousand dollars a month. They actually see a path to being independent of a system that has no loyalty to me.

And that's what I hear from folks. And I think it's great if we are not going to be loyal as like corporations to individuals. Those individuals are now responding. And the antidote to that poison of just being laid off randomly or being dragged back to office after your todo to work from home, all that stuff.

They now believe, hey, I can be independent and then you have to fight to get my services and and I think that's what this is about if in we're to talk my starbuck later. And I think that's a big part of the starbuck cks problem. Having a side hustle makes your entire fragile.

You you have other sources of income, and you can tell your boss to have off. And that's what Young people are doing. I've seen IT. I've seen people just quit jobs and just say, you know what, I had other ways to make money and I don't have a big barn IT. And so that's smart for Young people to do that. And I think my advice would be to build your brand, be as independent as possible, and to make things in the world and show people what you mean. I want the best thing you can do.

Can I can I give you the other side of this before we go back to mro? Yeah, imagine that time brady, who really respected dobell, check but I wouldn't say is super fond of him. They're not super close.

But imagine that tom brady had a side also. So and I just say he drove a uber and he made enough money where when things got hard and he didn't get enough playing time, he opted out without have made brady the person he was. I think the answer is no.

I think there are a lot of people who started companies after being in very difficult and chAllenging environments that stretched and push them beyond their comfort zone. And they lived in that world for years before they started something. If all of a sudden the answer is, let me have an escape patch so that I can egress off whatever things get hard, I don't think you're going to accomplish much of anything because i'm not sure that that is the kind of boundary conditions that push greatness upon people. So I would just keep that in mind as well. I'm not sure the side high solve s anything IT may actually allow you to quit before you actually get to the other side of something and realized what you're capable of.

This is a great point. You kind of have to mentally burn the boats.

When you do to start up it's core test. You've got to burn the boats. Yeah, your life, your life needs to be like cortez. You got to burn the boats if you keep the safety net with you as you move through lives all the time and you never put yourself at rist, you're never going to figure out what you're capable of and then you're gona look back at some point and the odds that you're going to be disappointed or higher then if you actually just tried and lived IT IT and just said, okay, you know, i'm really glad and bedding on .

myself here to wrap up the the conversation about where markets are headed. Sax, I think we are going to just do a quick round the hall. Anything that you have reposition in your portfolio around investing or asset classes that you shift as we face kind of looming budget crisis, the election cycle.

every single in secondary markets. And you know how many bids there are for these six companies? Negative one bid.

That's interesting. I I had a couple of my sort of skip get offers. I've had three or four second year office in less two weeks. I've had to like deeply consider and they weren't like second part kind of companies, let's say two or sas, and then one I can say because we'd too too easy to guess. But the bottom feeder went from offering like an eighty percent discount to now twenty five .

percent discount to the shares, right?

I'm trying, i'm trying breakfast .

seven percent quickly. Office seven .

percent. He gets sixteen .

minutes per, you know what moderate?

However, I mean, this is moderation.

Going OK write this .

on the question of, you know, how do you reposition its the first, the easy one to avoid is his treasuries, right? I mean, you really want to accept a four point two percent yield for ten years to own A U. S.

bond. And with the looming inflation that is so out there or the looming deck crisis that might be out there. So that's why the easy one, I think the hard one is around equity because equities are in all time high.

Part of the reason why they're in all time high is because the fed telegraph that would have big red cuts this year. Member, at the beginning of this year, they said there would be seven rate cuts. Those expectations have cut coming down.

I think we had one I guess we had a double rate cut last month. We just have one more fifty bit recut this year. I have to wonder if that still going to happen.

And more to the point, if you believe dick Miller and paul tute Jones, we might be in for an extended period of higher interest rates for longer. And that will be bad for equities. Equities Normally are inflation protected in the sense that those companies can just raise Prices over time to ebo with inflation. And so equities are generally a pretty good thing to own in the face of inflation. If were in for a period of high interest rates longer than anyone thinks that's me bad for.

that is I would just argue one thing, which is except in the scenario where you believe the only inevitable path is for the central banks to monetize the debt, meaning the central bank step in to buy the outstanding treasuries that need to be issued, which both supports inflation but also introduces capital into the system. And that's where both equities, that's where you could see senario equities and gold go up on.

Fixed income goes down to to have higher rates. So it's effectively a money printing indicator signal. Now my personal position on this going into this new era, if IT manifests as the markets are telling us that will, is kind of our plutus, jonny, is I think that commodities have you know gold is a commodity.

Everyone talks about IT is being be safe haven asset, but there are other commodities out there that are much more fungible and used in production cycles to make food, to make energy, to make goods, and a commodity linked businesses, meaning businesses whose revenue or profit grows with the underlying commodity Price growing will outperform other businesses, are gna struggle to raise Prices or struggle to pay higher labor costs or struggle to in to deal with higher cogs. Where's commodity link businesses that effectively just make a march on the commode, a mining business, the businesses that do mining of of natural resources um businesses that trade agricultural commodities. So those businesses usually make kind of a fixed margin on the underline commodity Price, and they do they do well in this cycle. So anyway, I think that paul twitter joins because if you own a commodity, not a productive as is not generating yield for you, but if you want a business that's making a profit .

and to seems like it's easier to own bitcoin.

that's one asset. But the big going isn't a product of asset, right? So that's one way to kind of build a portfolio. But I I personally like running businesses where they're doing something in making value in the process, they earn a profit, especially if the grows with an underlying inflationary pressure. On sexy point .

about the equity markets, there is this thing that people look at called the buffet indicator, which is the total value of the wilsher five thousand divided by GDP. He mentioned that in two thousand and said it's probably the most reliable measure of where equities aren't where they're about to go. and.

There is a long run mean when you calculated going back you know fifty, sixty years and every time it's had a short term high, there's been a pretty meaningful retrained. So in two thousand, in the dark com bubble, in two thousand seven, during the great financial crisis, during COVID. And now we've actually an absolute new high in this thing, which again, to the except that you believe in indicators like this, what kind of tell you that at some point here, equities are probably going to .

be cheaper before .

they are going to get more expensive?

This is definitely the high end of Normal, nick. You pull up the P. H, R. This is the obviously to look at you know not just the uh how dramatic the stock market peaks are, but you know the Price earnings ratio. And it's a at the high end of Normal at like I don't know if for twenty five um P E ratio on average.

right. How can you get four point two five percent when you have all of these risks looming over the next ten years? Because you know Howard Marks his letter. Uh he he had an investment letter that he publish this week and there was so great because IT was so elegant in its simplicity.

Which is investing in the equity and investing in a bond or just completely opposite to each other even though they're treated and spoken as if they're the same thing. And his concept is like people need to understand exactly what the terms fixed income means, means that you will get something reliably over a long period of time. And so the question is, whether is that fair knowing everything you know today? And I mean, all of you guys have set this now for feels like years. And when you show these charts of like ballooning debts and deficits, is IT reasonable that the market clearing Price for government issued dead over the next decade is four percent? I mean, my gotch, I could easily be six percent IT could easily be seven, eight percent.

That is very scary to the bond and stock is that the bond provides you with, like he said, fixed income payments. And those would be harbour debased. If you have high inflation, a stock use your earnings, and a company can always raise this Prices.

And so in theory, should be hedge against inflation. But both a stock and a bond are similar in the sense that they're both badly by rising interest rates, right, because the discount rate is higher. So this is where I am just not sure about equities.

If we do head into a new regime of higher rates longer, does that hurt equities even though equities Normally are pretty good inflation hedge? So I just don't know the answer to that. I do think we're headed for a period of constraints.

I think that since two thousand and eight, we basically are living in a form of consequence free environment where the fed could keep interest rates at or near zero. The federal government could spend as much as I wanted. We, we sort of Normalized emergency conditions.

First, we had trillion dollar of deficits as a result of the two thousand eight G. F. C.

And then those got Normalized. Then we had two trillion dollar deficit is result of IT, and those got Normalized. And then the fed was also doing QE, which means that is buying the U.

S. Government's own bonds, thereby stopping up the U. S. Bonds and the the bond market.

So now that's Normal. That's Normalize .

yeah keeping interest rates lower than the otherwise we need to be to attract those holders. So for about fifteen years, we kind of Normalize emergency conditions and consequence free spending by the U. S.

government. I think now where we may be entering an era of consequences. And what that means is that you can't push on one aspect of the federal governments baLanced without giving up on something else.

So in other words, if you're going to allow higher inflation, basic monitise ing the dead, the bond markets are going to make the government pay higher interest rates on its debt, right? Because not time. So we're IT going me in a world of higher interest rates, which means that equals get covered, real state good, gets covered, the value people's homes gets collab.

So there's real consequences that or you can tackle inflation, you know, which means that the feds going to have to tighten. But then I think what that means, the federal governments going to have to get religion around spending. They're not going skin able to spend all of this money.

We see this austerity measures in europe, right? We're pretty hard for people in greece and spain and to get their heads around and the americans are going to have to get use to we can't just spend and give handouts constantly on the equity side though, there's also the concept acts that you can cut spending and increase earnings and that that's well within your control as A C E. O.

And board. And that's exactly what we've seen coming out of cover. And I said here a couple years ago, I think the earnings are going to do well because people have this other lever and they can just turn the dial and reduce spending and increase earnings.

And that's painful. But it's not so painful that is not worth doing. And the corporations have gotten religion around cost cutting in a austerity and increasing earnings. The question is an individuals have to so they're pushing out, buying new cars and, uh, spending on travel.

So what time when .

does the government get that austerity that companies and individuals are forced to do? And that's the problem. You keep talking about free burgers. You know this entire election cycle was about who you can get more enough with the freeh like somebody's got to be an adult in the room and say we don't have any more free sh left.

I think this is what the market is saying, is that regardless if you get elected here, they've both kind of shown that the deficit will increase, not decrease uh, under the presidency. And look, maybe that is positioning to get elected and maybe there is a cut of more rational underlying economic advisory group that is counselling a different path than what they are presenting.

And I I hope to whoever is listening that that is the case for both candidates. Uh, very deeply hope if you look at what happened in argentina. So we've talked a lot about how vivier in the lay he came in as president and um his austerity measures by absolutely slashing government spending has reduced monthly inflation from twenty five percent to around you know three and a half percent.

So he's really kind of broad inflation under control. But the consequence of that is that the economy has now shown because the government is spending less, that means is less revenue for certain businesses, there's less income for individuals, so they spend less. So the economy has trunk by one point seven percent in the last quarter and um unemployment has Spiked.

So now unemployment is at eight percent in argentina and its rising fast. So for the U. S.

To actually execute this policy when we have a fundamental Mandate for the federal reserve to keep unemployment low, means that something is going to have to break. You can't keep unemployment low. And inflation law, if federal spending gets too high and federal debt gets too high.

So we are in a condition now where federal dead is too high. And if we cut federal spending too fast, we end up seeing unemployment Spike. If we don't, we're going have inflation. One, those those are the two parts we can walk.

Just one thing to chAllenge what you say, because I actually I disagree with IT, is that I don't think that people view the spending packages of both candidates the same because the dollar is not created equal. So there are certain programs that the republicans have proposed that are markedly different than the programs that the democrats are proposed, even if the numbers look the same.

And so this is I think you have to look at how the short term markets, when they thought cella was winning, behave for is now the short term market is short term. How do you hedged this risk? And that is completely changed.

And this is why, I mean, over the last thirty days, you've had a complete and absolute repositioning of the front end of the year curve in terms of risk and who's making the battle, I think why is because the the trump package, whether we agree with him or not, is viewed as more stimulative to later economic growth, which is why the inflation risk is being edged out versus s the commuter risk, which is they're just onna spend money. Now on top of that, what I would say is this may be where elon must be able to streamline the government, could be an incredible gift for us as well as our children, our children's children. And why is that? It's because if there's this sort of democrat hanging over us, constantly have billions and trillions of dollars of wasteful spending.

He is probably in a position to show us that we have spent decades spending more and getting less. And now we can run the A B test where we spend meaningful ly meaningful ly less cut regulation. And if we actually get more, you will have the proof. And that could set us on the long term path of being more judicious in how we spend money. And I think that we deserve to run that experiment somehow.

To go back to your your definition of GDP, it's true that if you cut government, that might cut GDP because GDP includes government spending. However, a one could argue that, although technical, that is how the definitions work, that by cutting government, you actually unlock resources that could be used by the private sector. And that alteration you would lead to more efficiency, but also stimulate the private sector.

And I think that argument is quickly true when you've got an economy running a full employment. So know if we had lots of unemployment, then cutting all these government workers would be very painful. But if you've got an economy that's doing quite well and there's a lot of job creation going on, then it's a good time actually cut government because the private sector can reabsorb these people. We should use the fact that we still have that we have a good employment picture to make these painful cuts. Now I supposed to waiting until that would be form more difficult that point .

i've heard in a long time. That's a great point. Sex, give us the election uptake. What's going on?

Are we gna get your .

guy in office is gonna be, uh, vice president Harris, the sense of what the polls are telling you, of what the markets are telling us, what you read on where we're at.

all the data is basically pointing one direction, which is, uh, a tram Victory. And by data, I mean the polling, I mean the prediction markets and the early voting numbers. So if you look at the the polls, there are two new polls by mainstreet media.

One, the walls y journal yesterday said that trump was up three nationally and I think cnbc had to pull this morning saying that trump was up to nationally. That's very good because that's the popular vote. That's the popular vote.

So if trump is winning the popular vote, it's land slightly. Most proglio stickers say that because republicans have a slight electronic college advantage that Harris would need to win the popular vote by more than two percent to have a chance at within the electoral college. So if trump is winning the popular vote, then as the land slide.

Second area is, if you look at the state by state polling, trump has been advancing pretty much in every battle ground state for the last couple of weeks. Use r cp. Trump is now ahead slightly in every battle ground state in the momentum is all towards trump.

And then the final data point is around early voting. In states where they have this early voting and put out the numbers, republicans are tracking well ahead of where they were in twenty twenty. Now there's still a question of, you know, this means that republicans are just shifting their votes to voting earlier and then we'll do less well on election day. There's always a chance. But right now, if your republican is what you want to see, and if you are democrat is definitely not with you, you want to see .

yeah and the S A that made silver route, uh, that was published by the new york times yesterday said it's a fifty fifty tosa either candidate could win but my god tells me it's gonna truck. He's kind of indicated that where, you know, as a guy who is obviously going to be prognosticator says the market added J, K, L. Giving sexes is right on this.

Anything taking of dictating markets have moved very, very sharply. And favorite trumpet, almost two thirds, one third now in favor of trump. So there's been a huge move among Better the trump is gone to win on Polly market. Yeah Polly market and calls I as .

well giving IT over jacal.

I go with nate. I mean, I think nates probably the best thinker on this, who I think puts them a lot of effort a to IT and he says it's fifty, fifty with the slide manage trump. I think I would go with his gut, but he saying, don't trust anybody.

I I don't trust the prediction markets. And I think the prediction markets are closing mac APP as we get closer because they are easily manipulated. Polling market is only offshore, right? The U.

S. Market is not allowed to participate in Polly market. So it's all foreign investors. Now of course, americans could be putting money overseas somehow and using foreign accounts to to place these beats like i'm guessing if you were a sharp and you really want to make money, that's what you do. So I don't .

know what I IT was reported this morning that a french trader has bt forty five million dollars on trump on Polly market that he is the whale. He's a french national with, quote, extensive trading experience. He's not, quote, manipulating the market. He just really trying to build a big decision. So he sounds like he's a pretty active trader that I made a big move.

but it's a cypher of site. So you you get the benefit of like you can track some amount of this on block chains and then eventually find the person. But because the script as well, you can also hye yourself pretty well with tumblers and other systems.

So I would discount Polly market a bit. It's probably as extremest IT seems, but IT does seem like kamala has not helped herself self with the interviews. They haven't been great. And you know IT IT is a top. And so any surprise any .

october surprise been a attempts last couple days. I think that seems like a for our service .

and really nearly ones that we couldn't give IT. I don't think we should give any threats too. But some republicans have been coming out talking about like a really nearly one about the republican side.

And if it's not much more nearly than other things that have been set about trump already and judgment that trump is against him already for hundred million dollars in that vein. But I do think that, that looks to me like it's cap. And I think there's going to be a lot of fake news, maybe even deep fix that come out, you know, in the last week or two. So I I think people should not trust anything they see on social media. Be very careful with that information.

I'll tell you guys. My kind of view is like things seem to be getting more and flaming leading up to the election here. It's like we've got twelve days after or whatever is and the the rhetoric and the tonality of the stuff that being said is getting so nasty on both sides and um I just worry more about the reconciliation reconstruction .

phase that needs to happen in amErica is IT equal on both sides.

That's your observation. I like I you know, I think like trump leaning up the window.

McDonald and I was I I mean, I laugh pretty hard when he was like someone to him, when the interview trump, when he was serving french fries and he said something like, i've now worked in mcDonald fifteen minutes longer than kala has and then one of the reporters said, well, why do you think you would lie about that? And he leads out the window, he said, because she's lying camera and, you know, it's a funny joke, gets his quap. He makes fun of everyone. But I think the whole thing about making fun of everyone, it's such a different tune in a different rhetorical c than I think what's going to be needed because imagine if SHE wins and you know he's painted her being you know a liar and crooked and deep state. I mean, i'm going .

trying and possibly compare that to what the democrats saying right now, which is that trump .

is literally hit er ocracoke the line. And obviously when you say something like that, when you say that the fundamental system of the electoral process is on the line, IT implies that if he wins, we've ended democracy that will inevitably lead people to feel like we are in a place of civil chaos. And I don't think that anyone's gonna feel good coming out of this.

How do you guys think we kind of deal with, uh, like the election outcome here, one side or the the other? I mean, half the countries gonna hate the president, and half the countries onna hate where where we are and how we sit as a country. And half the country is going to think that democracies over, I mean, one half is going to feel like this is the end and it's just a temporary thing, and everyone reconciled.

We all like get back to work. And the elections over. And whoever wins, wins.

I think, unfortunately, the main remedy is responsible for giving roughly half the country as psychosis about trump, because they are pushing out this rhetoric. C cannot stop that. These are fascists, that his hitler, they keep putting out all these fake stories, and they are basically training people, are in doctoring them that he is just like for to democracy.

I was having dinner last night with someone who is a democratic, premature PS all the information from mainstream media and she's like terrified of this. This is not who don't want this. It's ridiculous yberville.

But if you're locked in that media ecosystem, is all you here, you really are frightened by this. So I think that the media, the media is a responsibility, the way that they don't report honestly and that they gin up these threats. S has really terrified half the country.

giving that the trump, trump is hitler rhetta. C indicates that the democrats .

feel pretty part for the course. So horrible about that. I mean, you could make the argument that she's lied about a lot of things as Anderson Cooper interrogated her quite well just yesterday on that town.

All he pointed out that he had said fifty times that trumps wall was a stupid idea, and now he appears to be in favor of IT. So I think that accusing your opponent of lying is pretty part for the course for a politician. What's not part for the course is saying that your opponent is literally hitler and a fascist. That is going to a whole .

different levels of retinal. Do you think we're in a nasty state? We're going to be able to get out of IT after the election.

and I think we're gonna fine. Worker.

I am actually pretty optimistic because I actually don't think this can be that close. I mean, right now, it's looking like maybe the landslides too strong word, but a solid Victory for trump that's with the polls are showing us the flick markets are showing that the early voting is showing. And if you look at all the other data input right now, it's showing trump winning pretty handy.

The other data point they even talked about is just how these campaigns are acting in the final stretch. If you look at the term campaign is pretty much steady as he goes, you look at the commons campaign and therein the throwing spaetzle inst, the wall mode, they are back to come, the dark brand and type messaging where the to vote for us trumps fascist. This is a very different.

Then they're missing when they made the switch roof from biden to combo, right? When they first made that switch, they said, okay, let's get away from this dark brand and threats to democracy type messaging. IT doesn't seem to be working less emphasize com herr's as a change agent, as a transformational candidate, as a candidate of joy and positive vibes.

And they didn't get a big bounce in the polls because that the problem is that over the last couple of months, that sort of bounce in the polls has worn off. As Harry has not been able to explain what he would change, SHE keeps getting asked all these interviews. What would you do differently than joe biden? Anderson Cooper just asked her that yesterday for like the nineteen thousand th time, and he still does not have an answer to that question.

And so the problem he has is that this sort of venir, they gave her as this change agent has kind of warn off, and he's seen as a continuation of biden, and the public does not want a continuation of biden. And so now IT feels like they're frantically trying to figure out how to reposition. They are back to the, to the the anti trump serve historical messaging, which didn't work IT wasn't working three months ago when they made that the switcher rule. So I tend to think that if you look at the behavior, these campaigns is pretty easy to see which one feels confident and uh and which one is in a panic.

Okay, jack, out if you could go back in time and you were commonest advisor when he became phenomenon e, what would you have advised her to do differently than SHE has done in this .

campaign today? I would have had a speed from primary, and I would have let democracy play out. That was the big mistake that a, say.

one hundred percent.

but. And then in terms of thinking about why people believe that trump is an existential threat to democracy, I encourage everybody who was a fan of this podcast to go back to episode sixteen. The all in pockets. And that's the episode where we all reacted the week of january six, and we all had great consensus among us that we thought this was one of the most disgusting, horrific days in the history of the country and that trump was trying to overthrow the election results and that he was doing so and are not democratic fashion. Now, I know some people have read right or change their positions, but encourage you all to pause this episode and go back and listen to our very thoughts, discussion on episodes, the olympic.

because we were scared as well. I think that things happen in a moment, and you have to have enough compassion to say you react in a moment, but then you also have to have the intellect to separate yourself from the things that happen, learn more and possibly and potentially change your mind. I don't want to be defined by a thing that I said in a moment, and I won't do that to other people.

In that moment I thought what happened was really terrible. And then since then, i've got to know the person, and I don't think that he actually incited much of anything. That's my belief.

Yes, that's fine. That's your belief. But I do think there's .

another group of people original assessment. I think that those people need to also read the way I did because i'm not really want to fit for random reasons. But that's not the point. The point is I think that if you still believe what you believe, then then you should tell people to listen to what you said, yeah, the right side okay, but there and listen to I were .

works said I think we had a very productive discussion when IT happens, I think people have memory hold .

IT what you're trying to say, which I I partially disagree with this, those beliefs have changed over time. And I think it's it's more baLance for you to say that, that's a point in time. And if you believe that point in times still exist, that's fine for you to say that.

But I think that's the way that you should say that. The other thing that I would like to say about this election, which I find really interesting, is we are in the part of the cycle now where the site that's losing is going to panic. And I think it's happened a couple times.

But I would just remind everybody, we have run the A, B test. We know what the presidencies gonna look like under trump, except you get a real vise president, plus R, F, K, plus elon must, whether you like them or not. But my point is, I think you need to consider that you're getting four for the Price of one.

And if the other side, if harassed, you mostly know what the trend will be because you've seen the trend under four years, abide. The second thing is I think it's interesting to see that when you get into the home stretch, the losing side tends to turn on itself because they start to play protectionism for their own careers. And there's a lot of stuff that I think you can consume that starts to show that.

And I think that's just an interesting observation. A lot of the tried through most reliable media sources that I think we're trying to navigate as much as possible for a process is presidency are starting to push back in a way that I find a little surprising. I think the C N N. Town hall yesterday was one of those moments for me where even people like David ax, odd a little bit, throwing commoner's under the bus item to expect that at all. So I think it's just important to observe that .

these things are happening. I would that we're going to make IT whatever to cheat your point you out. Since you know, I am chAllenging with that episode sixteen call out, I do hope that whoever wins, we also support that person to do the best they can for all americans.

And that's always been my commitment and and I did in the last two times. And we will survive this one. I don't think i'll survive two or three of these cycles that we spent .

ten thirty in each time. It's the add, you know, since some check out you're offscreen up so that I participated things. I mean, look, I think that the goal of the mainstream media has been to try and keep us in the heat of that moment for four years.

I mean, if you've watched mm bc. For the last four years. It's like jx is occurring every single day. I mean, this is all that they talk about, but I think like to assay. We have learned a lot of things since that day.

I didn't know, for example, that twitter had censored president trumps tweet, telling all these people to go home, that basically, he said, to protest peacefully, and then when they rioted, that he actually published whets trying to tell them to go home. So that was new information. And that what that came out, members at the beginning of the whole primary cycle, trumped that town hall on CNN with kate lyn Collins, where he dramatically pulled the piece of paper out of his pocket with the tweet and started reading them.

That was a lot of new information for people, and I think that gave a different picture. And then I think one other point that I think is important is that imagine if the press to try keep us in the heat at the moment of the summer of twenty twenty riots, the George ford floyd riots, then we'd have a very different perception of which party was in favor of riots, because tim was was the governor of minnesota when those riots occurred. He did not want to send the national guard.

Trump did. And the commonly heras tried to raise money for bail for an organization, was bAiling out some of these protesters and writers at a prison. So if the media was so incline dica portray comm Harrison t.

Walls as the party of the riots of the summer of twenty twenty, I think at the end of the day that both those takes are propagandists and they happened four years ago. And it's certainly a piece of making that voters can take into account, but is only one piece of information. And there's a whole lot of other issues and policies in this election.

And I think at this point, everything that happened four years ago is kind of Price into the stock. And what voters wants to know about now is, what would you do on the issues? What would you do about immigration? What would you do about inflation? What would you do about the economy? And when you look at the polling on those issues that voters say matter to them, trump has a decisive advantage. And commonly, hrs cannot explain what differently .

than David salad city. He said last night, which was very shocking, that he would say totally.

that is during her around the bus. But it's also preserving his own credibility because it's hard to look.

But this is my point. Anderson Cooper now has to preserve his own credibility. You can only prop up a candidates so long, and then at some point you have to prioritize your own media career. And I think Anderson Cooper last night had to start to push back.

That's well, because when everyone turned on biden, yeah that one night, when everyone turned on by and after the day, all the journalists who had been covering fighting for so long that he was obvious in their face the whole time, they suddenly have to be like, okay, I guess we got to admit now he's not really there.

Yeah, look right. I think, I think in one important way, commonly, heroes has been set up to fail here. Because, on the one hand, he wants to distance herself from joe biden's record. But on the other hands, SHE won't say what you would do differently. So she's in this kind of like never never like this limbo.

Yeah, that's right. But that's also not her fault. That's the position the democratic party push her in. And this goes back to what jacal said. We should have run a primary.

They should have run a primary for sure. I think they could have had a Better candidate. But also, I think to go back to free first question is a little bit of a premodern.

What should they have done differently? I think you either defend your bid's record or say what you would do differently. You can't be in this limbo state. And you, joe biden's, got to be in the White house.

They are writing his teeth like wanting to get on the campaign trail and defending his record because I think joe biden thinks he has a good record. And there are things you could say in favor of that record. I mean, I first, I don't think it's great, but you could talk about the full employment picture.

You could talk about the fact that, yes, we had nine percent inflation announced down to three percent. I mean, there are things you could say. I mean, he did not.

Equity markets are in all time high. I mean, he signed a lot legislation that he obviously believed in. So the democrats do have a record to run on is not a record that I personally believe in, but it's certainly won.

I think you could make an effort to defend and I think biden, if he was the candidate, would be defining that record. And it's very awkward to a canada who was part of this administration who will not defend that record, who distance herself from that record but won't really say with any detail or conviction what you would do differently. That is just a losing proposition. And I think Anderson Cooper exposed IT more than brad berry last night, because Anderson Cooper had the time. Bread had twenty six minutes, and bread there was seen as adversarial, where as innocent Cooper is fundamentally a friendly interviewer and when he can answer those questions for instant Cooper, that's when.

you know, you're done. By the way, we've said this now, consistently, almost monotone sly. Now for about two or three months, he has to go into the swing states and answer about four or five critical questions. And and I would just say this is still the problem. So if he wants to try to close this gap in the next four of days and have a legitimate chance of winning SHE, that I think there's still .

twelve days. I mean, it's a very simple way to do IT. Number one, the border got out of control.

We've shut IT down already and we're going to tight and even more. Number two, the stock markets at a record for a reason. Number three, the employment is at the lowest it's ever been in our lifetimes. This is the as good as he gets folks. And .

if you go, that's running the campaign right now, they are not they're not doing a good job. And I think that sex is right. They're afraid of their own shadow and they are going to walk into A A meaningful reset of the democratic party .

of the year four. Number four, this person overturn movie way. That's what they're doing.

His V, P candidate has said he wanted a national band. They walked that back. But if you're a woman, you shouted, trust them.

And number five, obviously, you saw what happened on january six. He'll do IT again. You will got to just over and listen.

I'm not finding by and obviously needs to retire. He was a great president. He was a great vice president. We thanking for a service. I'm completely different.

I have a different approach to all of and trump is a wild card that this country doesn't need at the sign, the end and and they would win. But I don't know who's advising her. It's the same thing with try.

I think trump could have just gone right to the middle. And when he was trump, two point. Now he should be up to twenty points on heart. The fact that he's not up to twenty points of fifteen points on common and that this is a dead heat, I think is crazy trust. The easiest candidate to be commodities is candia, I wonder, was running both of these campaigns.

It's hard to be up twenty points when the entire mainstreet media is against you. There is only reporting positive things about the other. Canada is only reporting negative things about you.

And you have a three to one money disadventure. One thing you could say for comment, herr's, is SHE has been a good funding raiser. There's plenty of billionaire res who are funding her campaign. They literally have three times more money then the thumb campaign.

And even in california, which is a safe state for them, you're seeing comm campaign ads everywhere that just tells you there are so flush with cash that they can afford to spread the money around even in california. So look, the reality is that front has the entire establishment against him. And I think for him to be ahead in the in the polls, in the prediction markets and the early voting fairly decisively is an extraordinary achievement.

I think he's probably the only canada who could have done that in any event. And and I do think jackal, that cma has tried to make some of the arguments that you just said, not very Christianly, but she's trying to walk back on the border. The problem is they have no credibility on that because the democrats for the last eight years have fought trump on the border wall is his signature issue. And if you don't think republicans should be believed on abortion, there's absolutely reason to believe democrats on the border. They fought trumps wall.

No, I think that there, I think that's .

parts of all for scrap metal SHE, especially the borders are to even visit the border, which shows that he never thought I was important. Now SHE once pretend that she's trump on the border.

public not buy. And of the so simple SHE could just say, what work then is not gonna now we have filled up and we just true. You just did a tweet.

Hey, we're taking a pause for two years. That's what just go going to do. We're taking a pause for two years on the border. We obviously got out of control the end to move on to the next year.

right? If the haris campaign is listening, jake house advices out there, you you may come on the pod. You're always welcome, everyone. They are running .

for president as you guys share .

this rumor that bars .

tool sports was asked if they would interview her and they turned her down. Is that? Is this prematurely?

I know. Why wouldn't they take IT? They would take the interview. So what claims that the that the heroes campaign reached out and have to beyond two or three other shows and bars to will decline having her on, which is pretty unbelievable. Well.

they just waited way too late. I mean, there's no question that last month they radially pivoted the media strategy. SHE became the candidate roughly three months ago.

For the first two months, they didn't let her do any president reviews. Then they realize that their internals were bad at that. They're behind in the polls. So now they're having or going to do a lot of media. And like I said the couple days ago, that started to create a dome loop because he is not a great media performer, so her ll start getting even worse. So then they ve got to put her out on more media to try and know, robot.

that your doo move was a good call, will give you crime.

If the coming campaigns start, we'll be .

seeing in the despite al, right now what 你 a dette we got IT， let's go. So we're gona wrap up with starbeam what I thinks pretty yes, starbeam super interesting topic because it's a real question around traditional shifting to digital. Is that wise starbucks is having chAllenges or is IT to maturity? Or is IT what happens when a brand that successful as a lucky y brand gets too big and the kind of you know premium experience commoditized.

So as you guys know, we covered the starbuck CEO brian nickle joining a few months ago. This was after the privacy year had been in the office for just sixteen months and there are a lot of problems that were playing ging, uh, starbucks. But just this tuesday, bright nickel came on and said that were suspending guidance for twenty twenty five after reporting preliminary earnings that showed another drop in sales at starbucks.

Same store sales, which is the key metric in the Q S R or um or food and beverage retail business uh attracts what your revenue is year over year. Same source sales decline seven percent year over year. Earnings per share drop twenty five percent uh year over year.

So nichol said we're get the bad news out of the way. Now we're going to this back to starbucks plan, focus on experience, improve the through, put experience in quality, make Better to choose starbucks as a career. And then he went through a whole plan.

He put out a six, seven minute video on this whole thing. So clearly, customers are frustrated with the starbucks product, the starbuck's experience. The employees are frustrated working there, and a lot of the system seems to be breaking down. I guess I wanted to kind of a talk about what is the core driver? And is there a business lesson in all of this about premium brands or about scale and maturity and markets to be learned from the starbuck story?

So I don't know if any of you guys have gone through the earning reporter is just a case of founder versus being counter. It's reminds me of bowing or you know even apple with their inability to produce new products post the the Steve jobs pipeline of products. And if you have anybody read pouring your heart into IT shelters biography, it's absolutely fantastic.

And he really had an obsession with user experience, like writing people's names on the cups. Was the starbucks innovation. Remembering people's names, empowering the Green neighings was a big part of this. And then once he was added that the being counters came in and they just got all about efficiency, the much smaller number of berries at the store, watering your drink through the APP and just trying to make these graded efficiency decisions as opposed the experience once. And I think the starbuck experience starting begins with the basis, and that's the main problem.

If you've gone to a starbucks over the last couple years, sometimes you go in and there are literally fifty drinks from the but i'm not kidding, like fifty drinks on the pick up counter and then the huge wine if you come in person. And it's the most impersonal thing in the the stores are a rect. They're discussing the look like a truck stop.

And the whole point of starbuck was to create the third space is beautiful place that was welcoming with gorge sliding. And the verses was supposed to make you hang out and enjoy yourself there. And they lost that. And all have to do is read shell test book and do exactly what he did. Now there are a lot of other issues there around the competition for starbuck employees that I think are super important.

giving that really true jack out because the nico came on and he said were going back to the core, flat, White suspenses, nice, so delicious coffee. But the reality is, in order for them to have grown revenue over the last twenty years, starbuck has expanded their menu as to mah has point IT out to becoming a seller of sugar.

They've become a seller of milk shakes and flavoured beverages and high sugar cock tails mocktail that people you run into the store to buy two, three times a day. That's how they were able to get to pick up, not selling what they started out doing, which was fine. Italian rose to express. So it's now become a very different product and a very different experience. And so can you really go back to the core and not lose all the customers that I would say aren't looking for a flat White ten and spread so they're looking for .

a milk shaken the meal? You maintain the core is the key. You don't want to give up the core.

And the core was having a great in store experience. And I think that is not what you get. You go there putting the sugar aside.

IT is, I think, like going for ice cream for kids. So my kids will pick if they want to go for ice cream or starbucks. S into your point about the sugar tma, it's basically the same profile and it's a great place to get breakfast. I'll take that you know the eg bites .

in the next let's watch nics clip and then came off. You can give us your take on this. This is a thirty second clip from nichole six minutes that he put out on twitter.

To succeed, we need to address staffing in our stores, remove bottles next and simplify things for arabs. We need to refine mobile order and pay. So IT doesn't overwhelm the cafe experience.

We're fundamentally changing our marketing. We've been focusing on starbuck rewards customers rather than talking to all our customers, and we're changing that quickly. We will simplify overly complex menu, fix our pricing architecture and ensure that every customer fields starbucks is worth at every single time they visit.

We must reestablish ourselves as the community coffee house. By the way, this is one of the things that nickles did at talk o bell when he was A C E. O.

there. You guys remember the talk of bell menu. There was always like really interesting, hidden things on that menu. He simplified the menu, made a very small, did the same to pole.

He takes this approach to finding the best products, simplifying the experience, simplifying the Operations and giving the customers fewer choices. That ultimately leads to faster turn around, Better experience. But the trade office, you have less variety.

The people have come to know in love and that starbucks in particular, where there is just so much variety to choose from. Now, if your favorite beverage got pulled off the menu, are you onna, start to go there less frequently? You know too much. I don't know you ever take on what's going on at starbuck and whether or tells you something about the maturity about one of the most iconic .

consumer brands in america, these businesses in trouble neck. Please show the chart. This is lily versus starbucks.

If you look at IT over year, you could look at IT over. The year, the day you could look at IT over two years, five years, five years. But what does this show? This shows sugar verses anti sugar.

And anti sugar is winning, say IT differently, G, L, P ones, versus things that cause you to need G, L P ones. G L P ones are winning. And so I think this existential issue for starbucks is about resetting to a much smaller footprint and a different product portfolio that tries to see where the puck is going.

Where the puck is going is where a large percentage of the people that probably were buying starbuck products and were very loyal starbucks customers will have very different consumption habits as they more pervasively use these G O P. ones. And this internet shell is not something that starbucks can fix with their current product mix. And so I think that they are fighting into a headwind. And these other companies are deeply incentivised to get american taste buds to be different.

And so Jason, the things that you talked about are exactly the things that I think start to fall off the menu or just don't sell as much because whatever the population of americans are there on G, O, P, ones that say it's single digits, the real question is what percentage of starbucks customers around these things, and I think it's probably much more than single digits. And this is why I think you see the continuous decline in same store sales. And I think if you start to graph the adoption of G, L, P wants pervasively in amErica to the drop in same store sales, I think as G, L, P one adoption goes up, same store cells will continue to go down.

But IT doesn't IT argue towards the original business trip, going there and having a cup of coffee and hanging out, literally, with your friends and having a conversation. And in being a third space is the core value prop. And maybe the surgery drink maybe will fall out of fashion.

So IT maybe true, but I think that the the core objective of any corporation is to maximum shirt der value, driven by growing profits over time. So growing profits over time requires increasing your your revenue. And there are three levers for doing this maximize brand, which is to get more customers.

And I don't know if you can get the brand to be any more maximum than starbucks maxim coverage, which is how many products can you get those customers to buy, whether it's on a daily basis, weekly basis or monthly basis, how much of their meals and wallet chair you getting? And I don't know how many more times you can get people to go back into starbucks each week, then they've done with the the program, with their digital, with their high group tool that we've built over the last decade and so on. And then finally, maximize Price.

There's a limit to how much you can charge people. When you put those three together, you got more customers you're selling and more stuff at the highest Price possible. At some point, you reach a revenue maximum.

That has happened also at apple. I think that apple has faced a similar dilma in the last couple of years, which is how do we get more customers, is the most recognized brand on earth. You can only buy so many apple products.

Now, you know, they tried to launch the vision pro, didn't go well today. They announced that there this week. They announce or discontinuing production or reducing production on the vision pro. And you can only charge so much for these products.

And I I would argue that starbucks is a victim of the same maximum effect that at some point, you get all the customers, you get them to come in and spend its advise, many products from you, they can, and you charge on the highest Price possible. And then you reach this kind of maximum point on the the business. And I think starbucks has just reach that point of maturity.

So to your point, IT doesn't mean that is a bad business at all. IT could be a great business and nicely profitable business, but the growth ahead of IT is limited. IT cannot keep growing same store sales as IT has historically because they're max ized Operation of those levers. So fewer costs might be a way to drive more profits, you know, more efficient Operations. I think that's the natural next state for nickle the company.

The sad thing for starbucks is that the only road that they have is to actually double down on sugar. And the reason is because the art POS are meaningly higher than traditional coffee. And so the the economic pressure that shareholders will put on IT is to actually stay in the business of the rain and try to do IT as long as possible, as you say, freeburg, and just stripped out as much .

cash as possible. And then you just you grow profit by reducing costs, getting more efficient verses, try to add more products to .

get more customers degrades the experience. But the structural problem with starbucks should be probably a twenty billion dollar asset.

So what happens when a company gets to this level of maturity, much like has happened with apple, is the multiples compare.

The different is that apple has not had the competitive pressure that starbucks has because starbucks compete on a level playing field, but the duncan donors of the world, or the peace coffee of the world, but they compete in a completely orthogonal plain with G, L, P. ones. And I think that is not something that apple deals with.

So apple can still be at the point that you describe earlier, which is let me just maximize free cash for generation, which is what they do, and then let me allocate that back to shareholders via buybacks, which is also what they do. So there could be another decade or so where apple can continue on this play with very little impact to them or to the company. Now i'll say something else about apple though, which is I actually upgraded my phone.

I think this was three years and and I finally did IT. My gosh, this phone is socks. I O S eighteen software is, jane. I O S eighteen is just terrible.

I'll show you one example of just like, terrible design, where if if a designer, that worker, my team, showed me this, I would fire them. Look at this. Can you see, this is IT possible to understand why you have two images for the do .

not disturb thing, one above the other?

No, but it's a level of slopes and not taking care, which which just shows you that it's like we make so much money IT just doesn't matter anymore. That's what I feel like they're telling me. And then i'm like, well, wait minute, why did I just spend twelve hundred dollars of my harder money to upgrade to this thing? If if you don't care how much was a decorate, I think he was like to open a box for this new film.

The other thing is that the actual upgrade itself, and i'm not exactly shared why? Because I didn't take the time to unpack IT IT took four hours the actual migration of life from an old phone to a new phone and and I thought, my gosh, this is such monopolistic behavior, right? So if that takes you an entire day to basically upgrade your phone, at some point, you're gonna stay with the platform you on and never upgrade or you're just going to stay on the exact same device because it's just too complicated. Imagine going from an apple to an android.

It's possible ways both of these businesses are victims of their own success. They reach like market market saturation and reach their are natural audience and then some and they've just got to figure what to do. Our vision .

proof is terribly is a camera and you made a terrible IT was good. Why did you do that? I think they're trying .

to change things for change things. One of the things amazon's gotten correct and and other services like ebay and cracked iis, when you have an interface that works and and billions of people rely on IT, you have to be very, very subtle in making changes to IT. And they made a wholesale change in the photos.

and he did not work. Garbage, how do I get rid of the second thing on my thing? How can I just go back to the old thing?

Yes, that's when you never felt as a product measure when people want the odin. But isn't this just so lazy? Something is not right? Yeah.

I know of people that this is, come on, guys, can you just control center?

What is showing in the control center is massively confusing. It's like changing whether lights are in your bedroom and like, okay yeah all right.

trouble shooting um part of the all in podcast is over. I really want to say thanks to sax for participating heady in our starbuck discussion thing you want to say on the maturity of starbucks or other mature tech businesses or value luxury y businesses as they get big, too big, too big to keep growing anything else.

I find x on starbucks. May I do like the product.

but what do you get? Tell order.

I just get an americano with a splash of milk.

Oh, like my order set is a great order. And yeah, it's great.

Good for you. How about I just send you some special chemicals. You can just pour down .

your throat.

some .

car .

milk.

B maga. They don't have nut milks at mara logo.

A P.

I don't put that stuff in your body. I best they do.

You should take that sweater that you just took from china and where that tomorrow. Logo, when you go to take a perfect sweater .

for your moroccan visit, oh yeah, my god and sitting on his lap and .

he was just chatting and am like, what is going on here?

What do you want .

for lunch? I said, what do I want for lunch? Your company? That's what I told her sweet that .

much more kindly, right? This has been another amazing episode of the all in pod. As a team player, I have been here to pinch IT for jelly did not want to moderate this week, so I stepped in the film the the shoes on the world.

One of this .

shows greatest moderators for your certain of science, for the rainman, for the chairman dictator and for the world's most absent t moderator. I want to thank you all. And look in the great .

life .

he's stealing .

anything that's not nail .

down the world greatest house guess please .

pray together his own .

gift back love you best lovey boys. S A couple of us.

Your winter.

light.

We open sources to the fans and .

just crazy with.

We should all just get a room big, big world like sexual attention .

to release.

Hear me.

we get more.