We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Can Trump turn promises into policy?

Can Trump turn promises into policy?

2024/12/16
logo of podcast Consider This from NPR

Consider This from NPR

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
People
旁白
知名游戏《文明VII》的开场动画预告片旁白。
杰森·米勒
特朗普
美国企业家、政治人物及媒体名人,曾任第45任和第47任美国总统。
Topics
特朗普:在就职第一天,将实施一系列大胆改革,恢复国家繁荣;启动历史上最大规模的罪犯驱逐计划;取消教育部;停止联邦机构推广性别转变;结束俄乌战争;赦免1月6日暴乱者。他认为自己赢得选举是因为控制边境和降低食品价格。 杰森·米勒:特朗普政府将恢复其前任任期内的边境政策,包括"留在墨西哥"政策和废除"抓住和释放"政策;特朗普可以通过行政命令在第一天实施部分边境政策;其他国家最终会遣返非法移民;特朗普政府将由经验丰富的团队负责边境安全工作;特朗普将通过行政命令单方面采取行动;特朗普政府将优先遣返犯罪非法移民;特朗普政府的行政命令将严谨细致,以避免法律诉讼;特朗普政府将采取措施降低食品价格,尽管他承认这并非易事;拜登政府的能源政策导致能源价格上涨,从而推高了食品价格;拜登政府的大规模支出计划加剧了通货膨胀;恢复合理的财政政策和能源政策将有助于控制通货膨胀;控制通货膨胀将改善民生;打击非法移民不会影响合法移民和劳动力市场;打击非法移民和降低物价是可以同时实现的;特朗普第一任期内通货膨胀率低,证明了他的经济政策有效;特朗普现在比以前更了解如何实施他的政策;特朗普已经组建了他的团队,并了解政府运作方式;特朗普与其他国家领导人建立了良好关系;特朗普将提供强有力的领导。 旁白:特朗普的就职第一天计划雄心勃勃,其可行性存疑;特朗普竞选期间承诺,第二任期将完成多项任务,包括关闭边境、实施关税和结束俄乌战争等;对特朗普政府边境政策的预测。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are some of the key promises Donald Trump made for his first day in office?

Trump promised to close the border, impose tariffs, end the war between Russia and Ukraine, bring down food prices, and launch the largest deportation program of criminals in U.S. history. He also mentioned plans for energy reforms, closing the Department of Education, and ending gender-affirming care promotion.

How does Trump plan to secure the U.S. border on day one?

Trump intends to reinstate his previous policies, including Remain in Mexico, abolishing catch and release, and reintroducing Title 42. These measures will focus on preventing illegal entry into the U.S., while allowing legal trade and commerce to continue.

What is Trump's strategy to bring down food prices?

Trump's plan involves reversing Biden's policies that cut energy exploration and repealed permits, which increased fuel costs. He also aims to restore sound monetary policy and reduce inflation caused by excessive spending bills. By addressing these factors, he believes food prices will stabilize.

How does Trump's approach to immigration differ from his previous administration?

Trump's new approach focuses on stopping illegal immigration while maintaining legal immigration channels, such as the H-2A visa for seasonal agriculture workers. He emphasizes that only those legally authorized to enter the U.S. will be allowed in.

Why does Trump believe he can achieve his goals more effectively in his second term?

Trump argues that he now has a clear understanding of how to implement his policies efficiently, having already served one term. He has named his cabinet and senior White House team early, and he has established personal relationships with foreign leaders, which he believes will facilitate smoother policy execution.

What does Jason Miller say about the potential impact of Trump's immigration policies on food prices?

Miller asserts that Trump's policies will focus on illegal immigration, not legal immigration, so there should be no direct impact on food prices. He also suggests that expanding legal immigration channels, like the H-2A visa, could be considered to address labor needs in industries like agriculture.

What was Trump's inflation record during his first term, and how does he plan to replicate it?

During his first term, Trump achieved an inflation rate of 1.4%, which he attributes to sound monetary policy and energy exploration. He plans to replicate this by reversing Biden's policies that increased energy costs and excessive spending, aiming to curb inflation and stabilize prices.

Chapters
President-elect Trump has made several ambitious promises for his first day in office, including immigration, energy, education, and the war in Ukraine. This episode explores the feasibility of these promises and what challenges Trump might face.
  • Trump's day-one promises include large-scale deportations, increased energy exploration, abolishment of the Department of Education, and ending the war in Ukraine.
  • The feasibility of these promises is questioned, given the complexities of policy implementation and potential opposition.
  • The episode sets the stage for a discussion with a senior Trump advisor about the feasibility of these promises.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Starting on day one, we'll implement a rapid series of bold reforms to restore our nation to full prosperity. We're going to go full prosperity.

This morning in Florida, President-elect Donald Trump gave his first press conference since winning the election. That promise to restore, quote, full prosperity. It comes alongside several other promises he made on the campaign trail for what he'll do on day one. There's what he says he'll do about immigration.

On day one, I will launch the largest deportation program of criminals in the history of our country. What he says he'll do on energy. On day one, we're going to drill, baby, drill. Education. We're going to take the Department of Education, close it. I'm going to close it. Gender-affirming care. On day one, I will sign an executive order instructing every federal agency...

to cease the promotion of sex or gender transition at any age. They're not going to do it anymore. The war in Ukraine. They're dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I'll have that done. I'll have that done in 24 hours. And the pardons for the January 6th rioters. First day. First day. Yeah, I'm looking for a day. These pardons. These people have been there. How long is it? Three or four years. Right.

Presidential pardon powers are near absolute, but the rest of his promises might not be so easy to implement. Consider this. President-elect Donald Trump has laid out a massive mandate for his first day in office. How much of it can he actually get done? Coming up, a conversation with a senior Trump advisor. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

Thank you.

Claude helps engineers ship products faster, marketers craft compelling campaigns, and sales teams personalize outreach at scale. Empower every person in your organization with AI that's both powerful and protected. Discover enterprise-grade AI at anthropic.com slash enterprise.

This message comes from NPR sponsor Merrill. Whatever your financial goals are, you want a straightforward path there. But the real world doesn't usually work that way. Merrill understands that.

That's why, with a dedicated Merrill advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. Go to ml.com slash bullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, registered broker-dealer, registered investment advisor, member SIPC. ♪

It's Consider This from NPR. Donald Trump becomes the 47th president of the United States in just over a month. All through his campaign, Trump laid out a list, things he plans to accomplish in a second term, some of them on day one. They include closing the border, imposing tariffs, ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Trump also campaigned on bringing down food prices. In fact, he told NBC's Kristen Welker that's the reason he won. I won on the border and I won on groceries. It's a very simple word, groceries. Like almost, you know, who uses the word? I started using the word, the groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time.

And I won an election based on that. Here to talk through the incoming president's long to-do list is one of the people working with him to get it done, Senior Advisor Jason Miller. He worked on all three of the president-elect's campaigns, and he's here in the studio with me now. Welcome. Thank you. Let's dive in with the border. Will Trump close the U.S. southern border on day one?

Well, we're going to put the Trump policies back in place. So if you liked what we had during the first four years of the Trump administration, you're going to like what he's going to do. So we talk about remaining in Mexico. We talk about catch and release will be abolished, for example. Title 42, I would expect to be back. And there'll probably be some other measures. So literally on day one.

These are things where there'll be EOs in place, executive orders. So that's something that the president can sign. It doesn't have to go through Congress. So his policies. And again, just on that basic question, close the border, not close the border day one. What's the timeline? Well,

Well, we're going to make it so if you're illegal or you're not coming in through a port of entry, or even if you're trying to come into a port of entry illegally, you're not going to be allowed in. Now, when you say close the border, the impression is that nobody's allowed to go back and forth. What the border will be closed to is for people trying to enter the United States illegally.

So there's a distinction. I want to make sure people don't think that all of a sudden like all trade between the countries or traditional commerce is going to be shut down. And as you know, the president of Mexico has not fully signed off on these policies, nor have some of the countries that Donald Trump would like to send these people back to. What happens if, say, Venezuela says, no, we're not taking them back? Right.

They'll take them back. And realizing, of course, that some leaders have to talk a little bit tough. They don't want to seem as though they're being steamrolled. But the fact of the matter is, is that they're going to have to take them back. They're not staying in the United States because they're their people and they're entering the United States illegally and they're going to be sent back.

So day one, the president can put his policies back in place to secure the border. And let's talk about the team that's working on that for a moment. We have Stephen Miller, who led that effort largely from inside the White House during the first administration.

Tom Homan, who's the former ICE director, will be leading, but he'll be doing that from a borders are position inside of the West Wing, inside of the White House. We'll also have Kristi Noem, who will be the head of DHS, Department of Homeland Security. We have to get her confirmed first. I was going to say some of these are subject to Senate confirmation. And so Stephen and Tom do not need to be confirmed. They're already putting all of this together. So literally on day one, we're

The president will start signing executive orders for the things that he can do unilaterally by himself. I want to play you something. This is from President Biden's former chief of staff for ICE, Jason Hauser. He was speaking on This American Life. He was commenting on what he thinks the first weeks under Trump are going to look like. And he said they are, quote, going to be hell. You're going to see kids not in your schools.

You're going to know where they're at because they're waiting in a detention cell and they have cell phones. You're going to see it in social media. You're going to see businesses not be able to open up because their workers didn't show up. You're going to see businesses being raided. Jason Miller, is he wrong? And I chuckle not because I'm taking the issue lightly because it is such a bat, you know what, insane comment for this gentleman to make. Here's the reality. Like I said,

On day one, President Trump will close the border, put his policies back in place. We immediately will start moving to deport the criminal illegals who are here and already cleared and authorized and ready to go. They'll immediately start to work on getting other criminal illegals who are detained, making sure that they're processed and we can get them, because there are certain legal actions that you have to go through on a case-by-case basis, to

to get folks return to their countries. And then working with local sheriffs, local police departments, we're going to focus on the criminal illegals. Think about the transnational gang members, TDA, MS-13. That is going to be the priority focus. Are you expecting to get sued over some of these policies? I'm remembering some of the chaos that ensued last time around the first Trump administration. There was a ban on travel from Muslim majority countries. All kinds of confusion followed.

Well, obviously, you can never determine exactly what people who oppose your policies will do. But I think that the experience level and the skill and the preparation coming into this administration, having done it once before, will have all of these executive orders be airtight, as well as the actions that DHS then goes and puts in place once Kristi Noem is in there and they start moving ahead.

Let me shift you to grocery prices. We heard the president-elect a moment ago saying he believes he won on that issue. He also just told Time magazine that it is, quote, hard to bring things down once they're up, meaning prices. Hard to bring them down once they're up.

Is he backtracking? No. I mean, two things can be true at the same time here. So let's talk about why inflation happened. I'll give you kind of the Reader's Digest version. Well, if I could actually direct you, I would love to hear the how. How is he going to bring grocery prices down when he's saying it's hard? It's important to also connect them. Here's why it happened and here's why. Because I want people to have the confidence to know that this is something that he can do.

When Biden came in, the first thing he did was start cutting off a lot of the energy exploration and repealing permits and things of that nature for where people were able to drill in the U.S. That caused energy to become more expensive. So think about it. How do you get apples to your local grocery store? How do you get the bakery deliveries? Everything drives on fuel. The other part, too...

Keep in mind, under Biden and Harris, there's two massive spending bills, which even the Biden-Harris supporters would admit caused an additional massive spike with regard to inflation. Those two things getting the sound monetary policy back.

as well as getting the energy exploration and the deregulation, that will have an immediate impact for what we do to start reversing that in particular regard to groceries. You're making the wider point that this is a complex issue, how we get the prices of eggs down, how we get the prices of food down.

When you don't go and spend trillions of dollars that we don't have and you get some fiscal sanity restored, then you can curb what future inflation will look like. And so I think this one-two punch will make a real difference in people's lives. And look, I think what the president said to Kristen Welker was spot on. I mean, groceries was the reason. I mean, I live in a household where I will admit, especially because I'm on the road so much, I don't do the majority of shopping.

I went in to go get cereal and I love my cereal when I'm home. And I went in and, you know, my big, massive jumbo size, you know, box of, I like Crunch Berries. I know they're not super healthy.

It was like almost nine bucks for this big box of cereals. Like, what the hell is going on? I mean, this hits people. It matters to people. It matters. People vote with their checkbooks and they care about it. Just to ask about the interplay of the two things we've talked about so far, immigration, how expensive your cereal box is. Would a crackdown on immigration not drive prices up rather than down? Tight labor market.

things like agriculture, things like meat processing, those jobs are largely reliant on immigrant labor. How would a massive deportation program not end up driving up the prices of your cereal, my eggs? Great question. So I want to make sure that people understand what we're talking about is cutting down and completely stopping illegal immigration for people who are not legally authorized to enter a country to come into our country and start working.

We're not talking about lowering the levels of legal immigration. So there are things called the H-2A visa where seasonal agriculture workers are allowed to come in. Could there even be a conversation about that being expanded? Possibly.

possibly, but you have to enter the country legally. Bottom line, you don't think it's mutually exclusive to crack down on immigration and bring back Trump policies that you believe were successful the first time around and yet bring down prices for Americans? Oh, you can do both. I'm asking, I'm citing a Wall Street Journal poll. This was with economists taken the month right before the election. Only 12% of those economists thought that Trump was the better candidate on taming inflation.

I mean, come on. All we have to do is look back at President Trump's first term where we had four years and he had 1.4% inflation. That's almost no inflation. I mean, usually anything below 2%, people think it was being pretty good. 1.4% for his four years, and that's even with some of the tariffs that were put in place, with the tax cuts. That was such a phenomenal record. And I mentioned you were around in 2016, 2017, 4%.

What is different this time? What did you learn from the first time around that will inform how you attack things this time? Yeah, another great question. It's fascinating to watch having kind of had a front row seat with all this with President Trump. In 2016, he knew what he wanted to do from kind of a macro vision, prove the economy, secure the border.

Now he knows exactly how he wants to do it. So the fact that he had his entire cabinet named by Thanksgiving, he had a chief of staff, Susie Wiles, named before Thanksgiving, his kind of his senior White House team. He knows exactly what it is. So a lot of times when you have incoming presidents, they're trying to figure out – this sounds a little bit crass, but you know, where's the bathroom? You know, what are the logistics? How does this place work?

Not only does President Trump know how the West Wing and how the White House works, he knows how to do it with other foreign leaders as well. And not even just foreign leaders. I was with him, for example, when Justin Trudeau called him a few weeks ago. Of Canada. Yes, of Canada. And he immediately started talking about the Canadian trade advisor who's a tough negotiator in her own right.

And I mean, he knows the people going down to the finance ministers in these various countries. Those personal relationships are there to where he can just pick up the phone and make things happen. And I think Americans, whether you voted for President Trump or you didn't, have to respect the fact that he knows what to do and how to do it. We're going to have strong leadership in the White House. And I think that will impress people as we start pushing forward to some of these agenda items.

That is Senior Trump Advisor Jason Miller. Thanks for stopping by. Hey, thank you. This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Connor Donovan. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer, Sammy Yinnigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

This message comes from Bombas. Their slippers are designed with cushioning, so every step feels marshmallow-y soft. Plus, for every item purchased, Bombas donates to someone in need. Go to bombas.com slash NPR and use code NPR for 20% off your first order.

This message comes from Schwab. It's easy to invest in ideas you believe in with Schwab Investing Themes. Like online music and videos, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles. Choose from over 40 customizable themes. More at schwab.com.

This message is sponsored by Greenlight, the debit card and money app made for families, where kids learn how to save, invest, and spend wisely with parental controls built in. Sign up this holiday season at greenlight.com slash NPR.