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cover of episode Lessons from Iraq, as Trump teases attacks on Iran

Lessons from Iraq, as Trump teases attacks on Iran

2025/6/18
logo of podcast Consider This from NPR

Consider This from NPR

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A
Ari Shapiro
D
Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
G
George W. Bush
S
Steve Coll
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Donald Trump: 我强烈批评了小布什总统发动的伊拉克战争,那是一个巨大的错误,我们本不应该进入伊拉克,那场战争 destabilized 了中东地区。他们声称伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器,但事实证明根本没有,而且他们心知肚明。现在,面对伊朗,我明确表示他们不能拥有核武器,这是底线,无需过多解释。至于是否采取军事行动,一切皆有可能,没人能预测我的下一步行动。 Ari Shapiro: 特朗普总统对伊拉克战争深恶痛绝,但他是否真正吸取了历史的教训?当前,美国再次面临在中东采取军事行动的潜在威胁,而伊朗是否真的构成了核威胁? Steve Coll: 伊朗的核能力确实比当年的伊拉克更明确,他们有能力提炼铀,这是各方都认可的。但关键在于他们的意图。与伊拉克不同,当时没有任何公开证据表明伊拉克在积极研发核武器。当前,情报被政治利用来为可能的战争辩护,这与伊拉克战争有相似之处。此外,战争目标与实现目标的手段之间存在脱节。没有人期望美国或以色列会入侵伊朗并推翻其政府,但却有人随意谈论政权更迭,这与当年美国在伊拉克的情况如出一辙。美国情报部门认为伊朗尚未明确决定制造核武器,而总统却可能听信以色列的说法,认为伊朗已经非常接近拥有核武器。历史表明,军事干预往往会引发意想不到的后果,就像当年的利比亚一样。

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In 2003, the U.S. launched a war in Iraq based on what turned out to be bad intelligence about weapons programs, then spent years mired in a conflict with no clear end.Today, President Trump is threatening to bring the U.S. military into another Middle East conflict. As with Iraq, the justification for a potential attack on Iran is the alleged threat of a nuclear weapon. We talk to journalist Steve Coll, author of The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the CIA, and the Origins of America's Invasion of Iraq about how this moment echoes the run-up to the war in Iraq and how it differs.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org). Email us at [email protected]).Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)