More forever wars?
09:39 Share

Residents in southern Lebanese villages woke up to this sound this morning. A warning to evacuate if they suspect the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah is hiding weapons in their area. It's a threat Israel has followed through on. With Israeli Defense Forces planes dropping bombs on hundreds of targets in Lebanon today...

It's the latest movement in a series of assaults between Israel and Hezbollah that intensified last week when dozens were killed with thousands more injured in Lebanon from exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. The second wave of those attacks hitting in the midst of a funeral for those killed just the day before. And Hezbollah launched 100 rockets into Israel over the weekend.

All of this almost a year into Israel's war with Hamas has sparked fears of a wider conflict. Consider this. As war between Israel and Hamas grinds on in Gaza, fighting is intensifying between Israel and Hezbollah. Could the Middle East be headed for a wider war? And what does this mean for U.S. efforts to bring an end to the conflict? From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

Thank you.

Claude can generate code, help with writing, and reason through hard problems better than any model before. Claude pushes the creative and performance limits of what you can accomplish with AI. Join the groundswell of people that trust Anthropic with their AI tasks. Discover how Claude can help you at anthropic.com slash Claude.

This message comes from our sponsor, Grainger. This is the story of the one. As a maintenance engineer, he hears things differently. To the untrained ear, everything on his shop floor might sound fine, but he can hear gears grinding or a belt slipping. So he steps in to fix the problem at hand before it gets out of hand. And he knows Grainger's got the right product he needs to get the job done, which is music to his ears.

Call, click Grainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done. It's Consider This from NPR. The U.S. is trying to broker an end to the war between Israel and Hamas. Ceasefire talks begin and end and begin again. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has traveled to the region 10 times in the past year.

And that's not the only war the U.S. hopes to end. Russia and Ukraine have been fighting since 2014 when Russia first attacked, and then it launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, more than two and a half years ago. The U.S. and NATO have been supporting Ukraine's efforts to hold off Russia in a hope to preserve broader security and stability in Western Europe.

The next occupant of the White House looks certain to inherit two major conflicts—

NPR's Greg Myrie has been covering both of these wars and looked at why they're lasting so long with no end in sight. Shortly after Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, Ukrainian war correspondent Andrei Saplyenko was live on TV. The anchor asked him how long the fighting might last. When I said it could take a couple of years to calm down the situation, I said,

And when the anchor heard it, he was really terrified in live broadcast. Over the past 10 years, Sapleyenko has been detained and beaten by Russian troops. He also suffered a serious leg wound that's left him with a limp.

He's covered every twist and turn in the fighting and still doesn't know how or when the war will end. Don't want to say forever, but for a long time, maybe the next decade. The Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, date back to disputes that began long before the current combatants were born. In both wars, a common question is, when will the fighting end?

But given the tortured history, it might be better to ask, will they ever end? Both of these conflicts have very, very high stakes that are relatively indivisible. Gideon Rose is with the Council on Foreign Relations and wrote the book How Wars End. Russia is trying to conquer Ukraine. Ukraine is trying to fight for its life.

The Israelis are trying to suppress all attacks from Gaza and the Palestinians are trying to avoid being completely subjugated. These conflicts also reflect a harsh reality of many modern wars. They can grind on inconclusively, even when the fighting reaches the point where neither side can score a complete battlefield victory.

Paul Salem is based in Beirut with the Middle East Institute. Sometimes there is no solution. For a decade or two, you've got to manage the problem. You've got to contain it. You've got to make sure we don't go into World War III. The current scenarios aren't new. In the past, some wars endured for many years or even decades.

But several factors contribute to making modern wars last a long time, including these two in particular. First, weapons and technology have never flowed so freely. This means a smaller military can get its hands on more and better weapons than previously.

Ukraine uses cheap drones to counter Russia's much larger traditional army. Again, Andrei Saplienko. It's just a toy turned to a weapon. One drone can cost maybe up to $1,000. And you can attack a bigger target like tank and destroy the tank, which costs $3 million. In the Middle East, Israel relies heavily on advanced U.S. weapons.

Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon used to fire short-range rockets that only threatened communities just across the border in Israel. But with help from Iran, those two groups have been firing thousands of rockets into Israel that can strike throughout the country.

Second, these conflicts have defied permanent political solutions. It's not enough to, of course, have a military strategy. Chuck Freilich is a former deputy national security advisor in Israel. You have to have a political one as well, and Israel hasn't had one for years and years, to my thinking, on the Palestinian issue. The Israelis and Palestinians were close to a political settlement way back in the year 2000. Now, a full-fledged peace deal seems more distant than ever.

Paul Salem notes that Israel used to fight traditional state-versus-state wars against neighboring Arab countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. Now, Israel is trying to maintain long-term control over Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. You can win a war, but it's hard to win an occupation. Beating a state and getting the state to say, OK, I lose, so I'm going to stop, is different than maintaining an occupation.

which the Israelis really have not managed to do sustainably. Ultimately, most wars do end with negotiations, though the two sides tend to reach a deal only after one or both have reached the point of exhaustion. Again, Gideon Rose.

War is so terrible, therefore it must be in the incentive of people to stop it. Not necessarily the case. He notes that leaders waging the wars often make very different calculations than soldiers and civilians bearing the brunt. Somebody who initiates a war usually has a strong incentive to keep fighting it because unless they can get real victory, when it ends, they're going to be in trouble.

Leaders who lose wars tend to be tossed out of power, and the potential consequences can be even more serious. The International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for Russia's Vladimir Putin, and prosecutors are pursuing warrants for Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Senwar.

And in times of war, leaders often pursue goals that may be beyond their reach. Israel's Netanyahu calls for total victory over Hamas. He wants to end the group's rule in Gaza and eliminate the threat to Israel once and for all.

Yet Chuck Freilich says Hamas and its allies, Iran and Hezbollah, see mere survival as a victory and are pursuing their own long-term plans. This is a multi-decade war in which there will be round after round. They're fully cognizant of that. In the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin describes Ukraine as not being a real country, a place that should be part of Russia.

Andrei Saplienko, the Ukrainian war correspondent, says this is exactly why Ukraine will keep fighting. We realize this war is crucially important for Ukraine. This is the existential war.

We will leave or we won't leave. That's it. I mean, the nation in general. So that's why we will fight to the end. A fight that still has no end in sight. Greg Myrie, NPR News, in Ukraine and Israel.

This episode was produced by Noah Caldwell and Megan Lim with audio engineering by Maggie Luther. It was edited by Andrew Sussman and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan. And one more thing before we go. You can now enjoy the Consider This newsletter. We still help you break down a major story of the day, but you'll also get to know our producers and hosts and some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team.

You can sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers. This message comes from NPR sponsor Warby Parker. Their glasses start at $95, including anti-reflective scratch-resistant prescription lenses that block 100% of UV rays. Try five pairs of frames at home for free. Go to warbyparker.com slash covered.

This message is brought to you by Warby Parker. Their glasses start at $95, including anti-reflective, scratch-resistant prescription lenses that block 100% of UV rays. Try five pairs of frames at home for free. Go to warbyparker.com slash covered.

It's a high stakes election year, so it's not enough to just follow along. You need to understand what's happening so you are fully informed come November. Every weekday on the NPR Politics Podcast, our political reporters break down important stories and backstories from the campaign trail so you understand why it matters to you. Listen to the NPR Politics Podcast wherever you get your podcasts.