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cover of episode The enormous consequences Trump's tariffs could have

The enormous consequences Trump's tariffs could have

2024/12/8
logo of podcast Consider This from NPR

Consider This from NPR

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A
Andrea Hsu
C
Camila Dominovsky
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主持著名true crime播客《Crime Junkie》的播音员和创始人。
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本期节目讨论了特朗普当选总统后宣布的对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品征收25%关税的计划,以及这一计划对汽车产业的潜在影响。分析人士指出,这一关税计划将对严重依赖跨境贸易的汽车产业造成巨大冲击,增加汽车及零部件的成本,并可能导致供应链中断。汽车工人联合会(UAW)代表则表达了对关税可能导致就业岗位流失和物价上涨的担忧,认为关税应高到足以促使公司将生产转移回美国,但同时也承认关税可能导致物价上涨,对中产阶级消费者造成影响。与此同时,也有观点认为,特朗普的关税政策可能是谈判策略,并非旨在长期实施。汽车公司则表示正在密切关注事态发展,并试图避免过度反应。 尽管美国与墨西哥和加拿大签署了USMCA贸易协定,但该协定无法阻止特朗普政府单方面实施关税。如果特朗普政府实施关税,加拿大和墨西哥很可能会采取报复性措施,进一步加剧贸易紧张局势。汽车产业的供应链高度依赖于美加墨三国之间的合作,关税将扰乱这一供应链,增加生产成本,并可能导致工厂减产甚至停产。 历史数据显示,关税有时能够促进国内生产,但并不一定能增加就业岗位。提高关税可能会导致公司为了降低成本而更多地使用自动化设备,从而减少对劳动力的需求。此外,关税还会导致消费品价格上涨,对消费者造成负面影响。 虽然一些汽车工人支持特朗普的政策,并相信他的其他政策最终会对他们的工作有利,但也有许多工人对关税政策表示担忧,认为这将导致物价上涨,并对他们的生活造成负面影响。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the trucker convoy in Canada have a significant impact on the car industry?

The convoy blockaded the Ambassador Bridge, which carries a quarter of all trade between Canada and the U.S., causing a $300 million loss in one week due to disrupted cross-border trade and production slowdowns.

What is the USMCA agreement and how does it affect car trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada?

USMCA, signed by Trump in 2020, allows duty-free trade of cars if they meet North American production and wage requirements. A 25% tariff by Trump would violate this agreement, prompting potential retaliation from Canada and Mexico.

How would a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico impact the car industry?

It would increase costs, affecting both finished vehicles and parts supply chains, potentially raising the average new vehicle price by a significant amount.

What is the 'chicken tax' and how did it influence car manufacturing in North America?

The 'chicken tax' is a tariff on imported light trucks, which led to the relocation of pickup truck manufacturing from overseas to North America.

How do UAW workers view the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on their jobs?

Some see job security benefits if tariffs compel companies to manufacture more in the U.S., while others worry about the broader economic impact on consumer goods prices.

What is the likelihood of Trump implementing the 25% tariff as described?

The tariff is seen as a negotiating tactic rather than a long-term policy, but companies are preparing for the possibility, especially given Trump's history of policy changes.

Shownotes Transcript

You never know if president-elect Donald Trump is bluffing, but when you have billions of dollars on the line, you have to take him seriously. So car companies took notice, when Trump announced a plan for huge new tariffs in a social media post before Thanksgiving.A 25 percent tax on imports from Canada and Mexico would have a major impact on the car industry, which depends heavily on cross border trade.Trump's tariffs could have huge consequences for the people who make cars, and the people who buy them. Even if he's bluffing, he has other big plans to shake up the auto industry.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org).Email us at [email protected]).Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)