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cover of episode What Assad's Fall Means For The World

What Assad's Fall Means For The World

2024/12/9
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Consider This from NPR
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A
Ari Shapiro
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Joshua Landis
M
Muaz Mustafa
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Muaz Mustafa：叙利亚大马士革的解放让Mustafa感到难以置信却又无比喜悦，他迫切地想要回到阔别已久的故土，同时他也非常牵挂在叙利亚监狱中被关押的亲人和民主活动家，其中包括他的叔叔。他认为叙利亚监狱里的人应该获得自由，而那些将他们关押起来的人应该入狱。 Ari Shapiro：叙利亚不仅是数百万人的家园，也是地缘政治棋盘上的关键棋子，阿萨德政权的垮台将对世界产生深远的影响。 Joshua Landis：俄罗斯和伊朗此前支持叙利亚政权，但由于自身原因，这次没有提供足够的支援。俄罗斯忙于乌克兰战争，自身实力受损；伊朗也因以色列对真主党的袭击而实力减弱。此外，叙利亚军队自身也因长期内乱、低薪等问题而实力空虚，战斗力下降。美国对叙利亚实施的制裁和对石油天然气资源的控制也进一步削弱了叙利亚政权，切断了叙利亚政府40%的财政收入。叙利亚对俄罗斯而言，塔尔图斯港是其在地中海唯一能够修理和改装军舰的港口，失去叙利亚将是俄罗斯的一大损失。对伊朗而言，叙利亚是其支持黎巴嫩真主党的重要通道，叙利亚政权更迭将切断伊朗对黎巴嫩真主党的武器供应。叙利亚政权更迭将改变中东地区的力量平衡，有利于逊尼派国家，并对伊朗造成相当大的打击。美国目前对叙利亚新政府持观望态度，将继续支持库尔德人，并不会立即归还叙利亚的油井。叙利亚新政府面临着整合各派系和巩固权力的巨大挑战，国际社会对其未来发展也感到担忧。 Muaz Mustafa: 叙利亚大马士革的解放让他感到难以置信却又无比喜悦，他迫切地想要回到阔别已久的故土，同时他也非常牵挂在叙利亚监狱中被关押的亲人和民主活动家，其中包括他的叔叔。他认为叙利亚监狱里的人应该获得自由，而那些将他们关押起来的人应该入狱。叙利亚的解放象征着争取尊严、民主和自由的革命取得了胜利，这对他来说是莫大的荣誉。 Ari Shapiro: 叙利亚不仅是数百万人的家园，也是地缘政治棋盘上的关键棋子，阿萨德政权的垮台将对世界产生深远的影响。 Joshua Landis: 俄罗斯和伊朗此前支持叙利亚政权，但由于自身原因，这次没有提供足够的支援。俄罗斯忙于乌克兰战争，自身实力受损；伊朗也因以色列对真主党的袭击而实力减弱。此外，叙利亚军队自身也因长期内乱、低薪等问题而实力空虚，战斗力下降。美国对叙利亚实施的制裁和对石油天然气资源的控制也进一步削弱了叙利亚政权，切断了叙利亚政府40%的财政收入。叙利亚对俄罗斯而言，塔尔图斯港是其在地中海唯一能够修理和改装军舰的港口，失去叙利亚将是俄罗斯的一大损失。对伊朗而言，叙利亚是其支持黎巴嫩真主党的重要通道，叙利亚政权更迭将切断伊朗对黎巴嫩真主党的武器供应。叙利亚政权更迭将改变中东地区的力量平衡，有利于逊尼派国家，并对伊朗造成相当大的打击。美国目前对叙利亚新政府持观望态度，将继续支持库尔德人，并不会立即归还叙利亚的油井。叙利亚新政府面临着整合各派系和巩固权力的巨大挑战，国际社会对其未来发展也感到担忧。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the fall of Assad's regime happen now?

Russia was preoccupied with the Ukraine war, Iran weakened by Israel's attacks on Hezbollah, and the Syrian military was hollowed out due to lack of funding and resources.

What was the role of the U.S. in the fall of Assad's regime?

The U.S. imposed strict sanctions on Syria, preventing rebuilding, and took control of the country's oil and gas resources, denying the regime crucial revenue.

Why is Syria strategically important to both Russia and Iran?

For Russia, Syria's Tartus port is its only Mediterranean refit and rebuild facility. For Iran, Syria is part of the Shiite crescent, a strategic corridor for resupplying Hezbollah with arms.

How might the fall of Assad's regime change global geopolitics?

Syria could shift from a Shiite-dominated country to a Sunni-ruled one, reducing Iran's influence and altering Russia's naval presence in the Mediterranean.

What is the current U.S. stance on the new Syrian leadership?

The U.S. is taking a wait-and-see approach, not immediately returning the oil wells, and continuing to support the Kurds, while monitoring the new regime's ability to govern.

What challenges does the new Syrian leadership face?

The new leadership must consolidate power in a diverse country with ethnic and religious minorities, and navigate pressure from Turkey and the U.S. to address sanctions and oil resources.

Chapters
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria after half a century of brutal rule has sent shockwaves globally. This event is not only significant for the Syrian people but also carries major geopolitical implications, impacting the global chessboard.
  • Assad's family ruled Syria for 50 years.
  • The fall of Assad's regime is a significant event for Syria and the world.
  • The Syrian people are celebrating the liberation of Damascus.

Shownotes Transcript

For half a century, one family has brutally ruled Syria. Nearly overnight, that reign ended. Syria is not only a home to millions of people. It's also a crucial piece in a geopolitical chess game.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)