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cover of episode When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty

When it comes to the economy, it's all about uncertainty

2025/3/6
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Consider This from NPR
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Mark Zandi
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Nick Bloom
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Randy Carr
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Mark Zandi: 我认为特朗普政府的广泛关税政策是美国经济面临的一个严重问题。如果所有关税都继续生效，普通美国家庭每年将额外支出1200到1300美元。关税政策的问题不仅在于关税本身，还在于其推出的不确定性，这损害了商业信心，导致企业推迟投资和招聘。 我担心的是，这种不确定性会让企业裹足不前，他们会推迟投资和招聘，这将对经济增长造成负面影响。 特朗普政府的关税政策对美国经济造成了严重的损害，这不仅体现在关税本身，更体现在其带来的不确定性上。这种不确定性使得企业难以做出合理的商业决策，从而影响了投资和就业。 Randy Carr: 作为一家在美国和墨西哥设有工厂的企业主，我亲身体验了特朗普政府关税政策带来的不确定性。由于关税政策的不确定性，我推迟了在美国工厂的投资计划。 关税政策的不确定性使得我们难以制定长期的商业计划，这不仅影响了我们的投资，也影响了我们的生产和经营。 我们需要一个稳定的政策环境，才能更好地进行投资和生产，创造更多的就业机会。 Nick Bloom: 我认为当前的经济不确定性处于历史高位，这主要是因为特朗普政府的政策变化莫测。这种不确定性会减缓经济增长，因为企业会推迟投资和招聘，消费者也会推迟购买耐用品。 特朗普政府的政策不确定性不仅体现在关税政策上，还体现在税收、监管和政府支出等方面。这种不确定性对经济的影响是广泛而深远的。 通常情况下，政治家们会努力营造稳定和平静的氛围，但特朗普政府却故意制造不确定性，这在历史上是史无前例的。 特朗普政府: 我们承认关税政策会造成一些干扰，但我们认为这是可以接受的。减税和放松管制政策将对企业有利，并促进经济增长。

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Economist Mark Zandi predicts a significant increase in household expenses due to President Trump's tariffs, estimating an additional $1,200-$1,300 per year. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett disputes this, citing the lack of price impact in Trump's first term. The unpredictability of the tariff implementation further exacerbates the economic uncertainty.
  • $1,200-$1,300 annual increase in household expenses due to tariffs (Zandi)
  • Treasury Secretary disputes the claim, citing Trump's first term
  • Uncertainty around tariff implementation is a major concern

Shownotes Transcript

Like a lot of economists, Mark Zandi, with Moody's Analytics, thinks President Trump's across-the-board tariffs are a bad idea. Saying, "Tariffs, broad-based tariffs, are a real problem for the economy."But Zandi says – it's not just the tariffs themselves that are the problem, it's the uncertainty created by Trump's rollout. Trump threatened 25% Tariffs on Canada and Mexico would start in February. They were paused at the 11th hour, only to eventually go into effect this week.On Thursday Trump announced the new tariffs would be paused for most products, but potentially only until April 2.Meanwhile tariffs on China snapped into place in February, and then doubled, to 20%.What happens next is anyone's guess. Businesses have been optimistic about the economy under Trump. His chaotic tariff rollout threatens that.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org). Email us at [email protected]). Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)