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Is Trump Losing? A Debate

2025/5/16
logo of podcast The Ezra Klein Show

The Ezra Klein Show

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A
Andrew Marantz
E
Ezra Klein
一位深受欢迎的美国记者、政治分析师和《纽约时报》专栏作家,通过其《The Ezra Klein Show》podcast 探讨各种社会和政治问题。
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Helene Cooper
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Zach Beauchamp: 我认为川普政府的主要目标是改变美国的政治体制,将民主政府转变为某种非民主政府,权力主要由行政部门掌握,制衡机制很少。虽然川普没有明确表示要成为独裁者,但我们应该关注其政策的累积意图,以及这些政策如果全部成功会产生什么结果。目前,川普政府在法庭上败诉多于胜诉,未能有效地压制反对声音,大学最初屈服于压力,但后来成为了抵抗力量的领导者。这些都表明川普未能成功巩固权力。虽然我们不能忽视川普政府的反犹主义倾向,但他利用反犹主义的方式实际上是为了巩固权力,并转移人们对真正问题的注意力。总的来说,我认为川普政府的威权主义努力正在失败,因为他们在一个仍然有法治的国家中运作,并且引发了强烈的抵抗。 Andrew Marantz: 我不同意Zach的观点,我认为仅仅关注清单和制度,而忽视了美国人民的切身感受,就会错过关键部分。言论自由正在受到压制,人们因为害怕而不敢表达自己的观点。川普的策略可能不是为了赢得每个官司,而是一种输赢都可接受的策略。重要的是要明确分析师头脑中的隐喻是什么,现在是匈牙利。在匈牙利,批评政府的人并没有害怕被抓走,但政权通过内部掏空的方式来摆脱异议机构。川普可能会削弱哥伦比亚大学,压制人们的言论。我认为威权主义已经存在,只是分布不均。川普政府所做的一些事情比匈牙利更过分,例如政治犯的失踪。总的来说,我认为我们现在还不知道我们处于哪个时间线,但我们应该保持警惕,避免自满。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores different perspectives on whether Trump's efforts to consolidate power and change the American political system are succeeding or failing. Experts analyze court rulings, media landscape, and civil society responses to assess Trump's progress.
  • Trump's policies indicate an attempt to shift from a democratic government to a non-democratic one.
  • Court rulings show Trump losing significantly more than winning.
  • The media continues to offer significant criticism of Trump.
  • Universities are organizing collective resistance against Trump's administration.

Shownotes Transcript

Is Donald Trump eroding American democracy and consolidating power for himself? Or is he trying to do that and failing? Is this what sliding toward authoritarianism looks like? Or is this what a functioning democracy looks like? And how can you tell the difference?

Two articles came out recently that offer very different perspectives on these questions. In Vox, Zack Beauchamp wrote a piece called “Trump Is Losing),” which argues that Trump’s efforts to cow his enemies and consolidate power are not organized or strategic enough to make a serious dent in our democratic system. In The New Yorker, Andrew Marantz published a piece) that he reported in Hungary, about how life in a modern authoritarian regime doesn’t look and feel like you might expect: “You can live through the big one, it turns out, and still go on acting as if — still go on feeling as if — the big one is not yet here,” he writes.

So I invited both Beauchamp and Marantz on the show to debate these big questions: What timeline are we on? What signs are they looking at? If we’ve crossed the line into authoritarianism, how would we know? Is Trump losing? Or is it possible he’s already won?

This episode contains strong language.

Mentioned:

How Democracies Die) by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt

The Path to American Authoritarianism)” by Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way

How Will We Know When We Have Lost Our Democracy?)” by Steven LevitskyLucan Way and Daniel Ziblatt

Don’t Believe Him)” by Ezra Klein

The Emergency Is Here)” by Ezra Klein

Democracy May Not Exist But We’ll Miss It When It’s Gone) by Astra Taylor

Recommendations

Political Liberalism) by John Rawls

Eichmann in Jerusalem) by Hannah Arendt

A World After Liberalism) by Matthew Rose

Melting Point) by Rachel Cockerell

I’m Still Here) (film)

The Constitutional Bind) by Aziz Rana

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected].

You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast). Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html)

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu and Jack McCordick. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith, Marina King, Jan Kobal and Kristin Lin. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts) or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.