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The End of the Obama Coalition

2024/11/13
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The Ezra Klein Show
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Ezra Klein
一位深受欢迎的美国记者、政治分析师和《纽约时报》专栏作家，通过其《The Ezra Klein Show》podcast 探讨各种社会和政治问题。
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Michael Lind
Topics
Ezra Klein：民主党未能将奥巴马时期的联盟转化为持久的世代多数，核心选民流失到特朗普阵营。民主党需要摆脱不再有效的机构结构，减少对资助者和利益集团的依赖，更多地倾听失去的选民的声音。自奥巴马以来，民主党发生了形式上的变化，其核心是不同类型的自由主义者（“乡绅自由主义者”）和不同的机构（非营利组织和基金会）。奥巴马离任后，“奥巴马机器”的运作方式与之前不同，缺乏领导导致民主党运作不佳。拜登政府比奥巴马政府更加左倾，这可能是由于个人能力、政治策略或其他原因。民主党在这一时期没有对任何事情说不，导致一些政策决策失误。在一些新兴问题上，政治家缺乏经验，导致更多权力下放给工作人员，造成一些政策失误。激进主义者和政治家的角色不同，政治家需要在政治现实的范围内行动。非营利组织与政党之间的密切关系，导致政治家对联盟的依赖，影响政策决策。 Michael Lind：奥巴马时期的民主党是一个全国性的政治机器，其结构类似于州和地方层面的政治机器。奥巴马时代的民主党通过竞选资金将大城市和大学城的政治机器联系起来，形成了全国性的政治机器。传统的政党结构被非营利组织所取代，这些组织从各地获得资金，对地方民主党产生了同质化影响。非营利组织承担了原本由公务员执行的城市职能，其资金来源多元化，导致问责机制模糊。这些城市职能由非营利组织员工执行，资金来源多元化，其问责对象不明确，存在民主合法性问题。现代进步的民主党机器与过去的恩庇网络相似，但不同之处在于其运作方式更加官僚化，并由捐赠和拨款驱动。过去的非正式、非法的人事安排被如今的类别指令所取代，这是一种官僚化的恩庇形式。拜登政府的“政府整体方法”实际上是一种隐蔽的平权行动，通过官僚程序实现。为了获得政府资金，组织必须满足特定的人口配额要求，这是一种隐蔽的就业因素。捐赠者不仅资助民主党政治家，还决定进步主义的定义，通过资金分配影响进步主义的议程。由于捐赠者对工会不感兴趣，进步主义议程中排除了对集体谈判和工会主义的关注。非营利组织的资金重点放在文化问题上，这反映了捐赠者的利益，而非经济议题。奥巴马离任后，“奥巴马机器”缺乏领导，权力下放至自我延续的组织，导致其失控。一些规模较小的环保组织对民主党政策制定具有很大的影响力。一些规模较小的环保组织对民主党的气候变化政策制定具有不成比例的影响力，即使这些组织并不代表大多数人的利益。民主党在政策制定中形成了一种文化，这种文化决定了他们听取谁的意见，即使这可能会降低实现目标的可能性。资金对非营利组织的影响巨大，如果民主党停止对这些组织的资助，这些组织可能会消亡。如果民主党对非营利组织采取强硬态度，这些组织可能会向其捐赠者寻求支持，从而对民主党造成损害。民主党需要成为一个“大帐篷”政党，允许内部存在不同意见。需要区分两党在经济问题上的共识和在文化问题上的分歧。在一些文化问题上，例如移民和投票权，民主党并不占优势，即使在其少数族裔选民中也是如此。民主党需要重新思考如何理解和争取少数族裔选民，不能仅仅依靠那些自称代表他们的团体。一些非营利组织并不真正代表少数族裔选民的利益，导致民主党在政策制定上出现偏差。民主党认为自己做了很多事情来争取少数族裔选民的支持，但实际上却失去了很多支持，因为他们听取了那些不具有代表性的团体的意见。现代进步主义与早期自由主义的区别在于，其代言人并非来自群众组织，而是来自非营利组织或学术界。共和党也受利益集团的影响，但特朗普似乎更依赖个人关系而非团体。共和党是一个由不同群体组成的联盟，其选民基础与捐赠者之间存在差异。共和党和民主党的捐赠者来源不同，这反映了两党的不同利益诉求。大多数选民对政党的忠诚度较高，他们倾向于跟随其领导人的指示。共和党比民主党更具政策灵活性，因为其选民基础更具多样性。共和党在意识形态上并不像表面上看起来那么灵活，他们在一些问题上存在强烈的共识。特朗普的成功在于他不受意识形态约束，在不关心的事情上表现得更加灵活。国会议员需要不断筹款，这使得他们容易受到捐赠者的影响。共和党内部存在多种力量，捐赠者、初选选民和普通选民的利益诉求存在差异。民主党需要重新思考如何赢得工薪阶层选民的支持，这需要在经济政策和文化问题上做出调整。民主党需要找到一种方法来打破当前的政治格局，这可能需要在候选人选择和文化问题上做出改变。民主党需要像克林顿那样，与一些非营利组织保持距离，并建立一个更强大的领导层。民主党需要建立类似于民主党领导委员会这样的组织，来团结不同派系的民主党人。民主党在任命官员时，应该更多地考虑政府官员和工作人员，而不是来自非营利组织的人员。民主党需要重新思考其权力中心，减少对捐赠者和非营利组织的依赖，更多地依靠职业政治家和工作人员。民主党需要摆脱对非营利组织和巨额捐款的依赖，更多地依靠职业政治家和工作人员来制定议程和政策。民主党领导人应该来自摇摆选区，以便他们能够更好地回应选民的需求。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why has the Democratic Party been losing nonwhite and working-class voters?

The Democratic Party has become more beholden to special-interest nonprofits, which reflect the interests of the donor class rather than the broader electorate.

How did the Obama era change the structure of the Democratic Party?

The Obama era saw the rise of a national machine centered around urban political support, foundations, nonprofits, and mass media, which centralized power and influence.

What role do nonprofits play in modern Democratic politics?

Nonprofits have become influential in setting the Democratic agenda, often reflecting the interests of the donor class rather than the party's core voter base.

Why did the Obama coalition fail to become an enduring majority?

The coalition's strategies to solidify support from nonwhite and working-class voters failed, leading to their defection to the Republican Party.

How does the current Democratic Party differ from its pre-Obama structure?

The current party is more centralized and homogeneous, with power concentrated in urban machines and nonprofits, unlike the more decentralized and diverse pre-Obama structure.

What is the significance of the nonprofit complex in the Democratic Party?

The nonprofit complex has become a modern form of patronage, influencing policy and campaign strategies through campaign finance donations and grants.

How has social media influenced the power dynamics within the Democratic Party?

Social media has empowered single-issue groups, allowing them to amplify their demands and exert pressure on Democratic politicians, often leading to more extreme positions.

Why did the Democratic Party's economic populism fail to attract working-class voters?

Despite becoming more economically populist, the party's cultural positions alienated working-class voters who felt disconnected from the party's agenda.

What challenges does the Democratic Party face in appealing to nonwhite voters?

The party's reliance on astroturf nonprofits, which do not represent the broader interests of nonwhite voters, has led to policy positions that do not resonate with these voters.

How can the Democratic Party break free from its current institutional structure?

The party needs to reduce its dependence on mega-donor contributions and nonprofit staffers, and instead focus on policies and leaders that resonate with its core voter base.

Chapters
The discussion begins with the Democratic Party's struggle to retain nonwhite and working-class voters, questioning the effectiveness of their political strategies.
  • Democrats have failed to solidify support from Black, Hispanic, working-class, and union voters.
  • Voters are fleeing to Donald Trump, indicating a disconnect between the party and its core base.

Shownotes Transcript

The Democratic Party has been hemorrhaging nonwhite and working-class voters. There are a lot of theories about why that has been happening, blaming it on the party’s ideas or messaging or campaign tactics. But I think the problem might be deeper than that — rooted in the structure of the Democratic Party itself.

Michael Lind is a columnist at Tablet magazine, a co-founder of New America and the author of “The New Class War: Saving Democracy From the Managerial Elite).” He argues that the Democratic Party in recent years has become more beholden to special-interest nonprofits, which claim to represent large constituencies but actually reflect the interests of the donor class. In this conversation, we discuss why he thinks the nonprofit complex became so powerful, how that might have led to a disconnect between the Democratic Party and its core voter base and what he thinks Democrats could do to course correct.

Book Recommendations:

Where Have All the Democrats Gone?) by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira

Tyranny, Inc.) by Sohrab Ahmari

Mother Jones) by Elliot J. Gorn

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected].

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast). Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs).

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota and Isaac Jones. Our supervising editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.

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