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cover of episode Break glass in case of oil price shock

Break glass in case of oil price shock

2025/6/18
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Marketplace

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People
A
Andy Jassy
A
Anton Koronek
B
Bill Adams
C
Caroline Toh
D
Don Cohn
E
Ernie Tedeschi
G
George Washington III
J
Jay Bryson
J
Jay Powell
K
Kyle Rizdahl
M
Megan McCarty Carino
S
Simon Johnson
S
Stephanie Aliaga
W
Weston LaBar
W
Winnie Caesar
Topics
Kyle Risdahl: 美联储目前对经济形势持观望态度,不急于采取行动,认为目前的政策立场能够很好地应对未来的发展。 Jay Powell: 我认为美联储满足于观望关税的实际影响,但预计短期内失业率上升,经济增长放缓。虽然普遍预计通胀会上涨然后回落,但我们不能对此想当然,必须确保一次性的通胀上涨不会演变成持续的通胀问题。我们正处于90年来前所未有的关税环境中,即使是拥有众多经济学博士的美联储也在努力弄清楚情况。在看到关税的实际影响之前,很难有信心地判断应该如何应对。目前经济状况良好,失业率低,工资和实际工资都在上涨,通胀率也适中。目前的货币政策立场使我们能够及时应对经济发展,我们将密切关注数据。 Don Cohn: 我认为20世纪70年代的经验表明,必须确保通胀预期稳定,避免人们认为物价会持续上涨,不仅仅是石油。 Bill Adams: 我认为美联储迅速从刺激政策转向限制性货币政策,提高利率,最终控制住了通胀,目前通胀预期相对稳定。 Stephanie Aliaga: 我认为如果油价在短期内飙升,我们应该更关注经济的疲软,而不是通货膨胀。如果油价上涨,消费者会感到钱包吃紧,尤其是在像今天这样的经济环境下,消费者的钱包已经很紧张了。 Jay Bryson: 我认为如果失业率上升,美联储可能会被迫采取行动,降低短期利率以刺激经济。如果长期利率上升对美联储的两个主要政策目标没有实质性影响,美联储就不会采取行动,因为控制抵押贷款利率或政府借贷成本不是美联储的职责。

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Shownotes Transcript

The Fed kept interest rates as-is today, and Chair Powell said policymakers are “well-positioned to wait” before making another move. But what if oil price shock, propelled by roiling conflict in the Middle East, forces his hand? In this episode, we break open the Fed oil crisis playbook — but we hope Powell won’t need it. Plus, projections show the GOP tax bill will cost more than it makes, AI productivity won't boost humans equally and port logistics get complicated under shifting tariff policy.

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