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cover of episode Reading the labor market tea leaves

Reading the labor market tea leaves

2025/7/2
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Marketplace
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Benny Ashburn
B
Brian Colton
B
Brian Duncan
G
George Perks
J
Jennifer Lee
J
John Diamond
J
Jonas Golterman
J
Joseph Gagneau
L
Laura Veldkamp
M
MTL Hunter
M
Martha Gimbel
M
Menzi Chen
N
Nick Tremper
S
Scott Ladner
20多年专业交易和投资经验，现任Horizon Investments投资管理部门负责人和投资委员会主席。
Topics
Laura Veldkamp: 关税导致商品价格上涨，消费者减少购买，这直接冲击了就业市场。作为一名经济学教授，我认为这种影响是多方面的。销售人员、送货人员，甚至商店的清洁工，都会因为需求下降而面临失业风险。经济放缓时，雇主不再需要那么多工人，因此他们也不必提高现有工人的工资来留住他们。这种连锁反应对整体经济产生了显著的负面影响，尤其是在依赖消费支出的行业。 Menzi Chen: 作为威斯康星大学的经济学教授，我主要关注服务业。服务业的主要投入是劳动力，因此工资增长放缓对服务成本有直接且巨大的影响。然而，情况并非完全负面。员工可能会要求更高的工资来应对关税带来的生活成本上涨。此外，劳动力供应的减少也可能推动工资上涨，特别是在需要大量劳动力的行业，如新鲜果蔬行业。这些因素共同作用，使得服务业的劳动力成本面临不确定性。 George Perks: 作为Bespoke Investment Group的宏观策略师，我看到了一些不同的趋势。数据显示，劳工需求正在改善，失业救济金的申请并未显示劳工需求迅速下降。更重要的是，我们正面临劳动力供应萎缩的问题，包括人口老龄化和移民政策收紧。这些因素结合起来，实际上可能对工资增长产生积极影响。尽管关税带来了一些负面影响，但劳动力市场的基本面仍然稳固，这为工资增长提供了支撑。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The slowdown in consumer spending, partly due to tariffs, impacts the labor market. Reduced demand for goods leads to decreased demand for labor, potentially suppressing wage growth. However, factors like rising labor costs due to tariffs and a shrinking labor supply could lead to increased wages.
  • Slowdown in consumer spending is affecting economic growth
  • Tariffs impact the price of goods and labor demand
  • Cost of services is largely determined by labor costs
  • Shrinking labor supply due to aging workforce and immigration policies
  • Potential for higher wages in service sector due to labor shortages and rising labor costs

Shownotes Transcript

Consumer spending sputtered in May, likely thanks to tariffs and related uncertainty. Not only does that give us a clue as to where GDP is headed, it could also help us predict the labor market's next move. Later in this episode: Slowed hiring could have a silver lining (depending on your perspective), the U.S. dollar is down 10% so far this year, and we visit a pop-up brewery focused on racial equity.

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