cover of episode The bond market is panicky over that GOP bill

The bond market is panicky over that GOP bill

2025/5/21
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A
Aaron Cheris
B
Betsy May
B
Brittany Romano
E
Ernie Tedeschi
G
Guy Labar
J
Jean-Pierre Dubé
J
Jill Dajon
K
Kai Risdahl
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Maren Kogan
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Natalie Cutler
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Randy Vogel
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Robin Thompson
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Stephan Weiler
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Randy Vogel: 作为Wilmington Trust的固定收益主管，我认为债券市场对共和党的税务和支出计划感到担忧，因为该计划会增加国债发行量。如果政府继续超支并增加市场供应，投资者将要求更高的收益率作为补偿。 Ernie Tedeschi: 作为耶鲁大学预算实验室的经济学主任，我认为政府的利息支付占GDP的比例在过去10年中几乎增加了两倍，并且预计未来十年还会继续增长。投资者通过要求更高的利率向政府传递信息，这应该引起政府的担忧，因为他们实际上是我们的债务客户。 Guy Labar: 作为Janie Montgomery Scott的首席固定收益策略师，我认为即使美国国债总是有需求，投资者也总能向华盛顿传递信息。如果债务发行成本因财政冒险主义而上升，那将表明联邦政府的支出能力已达到极限，问题在于国会或白宫是否会对这种反馈做出回应。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The GOP's new spending bill could add \$3.8 trillion to the national debt, causing concern in the bond market. Higher yields on long-term Treasuries are pushing mortgage rates and other borrowing costs higher, signaling potential problems for the government's ability to manage its debt.
  • GOP spending and tax bill adds $3.8 trillion to the national deficit
  • Yield on 10-year Treasury note at highest since February
  • Bond market concerned about increased government debt and higher yields
  • Higher bond yields impact mortgage rates, credit costs, and government debt payments

Shownotes Transcript

The latest GOP spending and tax bill would add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade. More debt means the government will issue more bonds. But investors don’t necessarily want a flooded bond market — we’ll explain why. Also in this episode: Stakeholders report longer waits for financial aid information since Department of Education layoffs, retailers set their sights on European markets to alleviate tariff pressure and workplace adoption of AI is tricky to track.

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